McShay: AFC Impact Picks/Intriguing Picks

[Saratoga Slim]

Todd McShay has a column today on Insider listing the players for each team that he thinks a) will provide an immediate impact in 2012, or b) provided a great late round value and could surprise. Not my favorite analyst, but his choices for the Bills are interesting. Link provided for the remainder of the article if you want to read about other teams, but you'll need Insider.

Buffalo Bills (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/teams/_/team/buf/year/2012)
Impact pick: WR T.J. Graham (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/28999/tj-graham) (third) -- There won't be huge expectations for Graham as a third-rounder, but the Bills like to spread teams out in the shotgun and he can contribute working from the slot. He brings the speed Buffalo needs, both as a vertical route-runner and after the catch, and that big-play ability makes up for his lack of ideal size. And with his 4.38-second speed in the 40-yard dash, Graham was a big-time return man in college and will contribute in that role in the NFL as well.

Intriguing pick: OT Zebrie Sanders (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/27672/zebrie-sanders) (fifth) -- Bills general manager Buddy Nix has done a great job finding starters in the third round or later in recent drafts, and Sanders is the most intriguing pick in that area from the 2012 class. He's an experienced starter who has played on both the right and left sides and will make an easy transition from Florida State's scheme to Buffalo's zone-blocking system. He needs to get stronger overall, but he's a smart, efficient tackle with long arms and good mobility, and going from a college system that emphasized cutting weight and gaining mobility to an NFL training program will help him immensely. Considering Buffalo's struggles when it comes to finding tackles, getting one with a third-round grade in the fifth could prove to be a steal.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7866443/2012-nfl-draft-most-impactful-intriguing-picks-afc

[Meathead]

buddy has been pretty emphatic that he views graham as an outside guy so this stuff about him working from the slot needs to end

[ThunderGun]

buddy has been pretty emphatic that he views graham as an outside guy so this stuff about him working from the slot needs to end

Yep. Chan said that as well. Graham will be outside, not in the slot.

[acehole]

buddy has been pretty emphatic that he views graham as an outside guy so this stuff about him working from the slot needs to end

Not and either or prospect.

If he can clear the jam against a starting corner he will play outside more.

If he does not he will play against the nickle/dime CB.

If he cant do that he will return punts and kicks.

If he can't do that he will be in philly.

If he can do both he will do both.

No need to argue the piont.

[justasportsfan]

buddy has been pretty emphatic that he views graham as an outside guy so this stuff about him working from the slot needs to end

what baffles me is this is Fitz's biggest weakness. Throwing deep to the outside. I would have thought they would stick to a big wr to help Fitz's weakness. Maybe David Lee can fix that but who knows?

[ghz in pittsburgh]

They have to have a deep threat. I consider him a Lee Evans type of guy that Frtitz threw to a few times two years ago.

[Saratoga Slim]

They have to have a deep threat. I consider him a Lee Evans type of guy that Frtitz threw to a few times two years ago.

Lee Evans had some serious hands. that seems to be a knock on Graham. but I get what you're saying. There's no one on our roster now that can do that.

[stuckincincy]

They have to have a deep threat. I consider him a Lee Evans type of guy that Frtitz threw to a few times two years ago.

Yes - but a question on the table is if he was worth the 3rd, along with the trade with WAS to move up. I discount KR skills as much of a criterion, what with the rule changes that showed up last season.

One has to consider what was left on the table in that round after that pick, which was #69 overall.

[TigerJ]

Buffalo uses a zone blocking scheme? I was under the distinct impression that they use a straight up power scheme that does not require the mobility that a zone scheme does.

[DraftBoy]

buddy has been pretty emphatic that he views graham as an outside guy so this stuff about him working from the slot needs to end

He made almost identical comments about Moats being an ILB, for two consecutive years.

Fact is if Graham can't get stronger and learn to deal with press coverage he won't stay outside.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Yes - but a question on the table is if he was worth the 3rd, along with the trade with WAS to move up. I discount KR skills as much of a criterion, what with the rule changes that showed up last season.

One has to consider what was left on the table in that round after that pick, which was #69 overall.

I think I put in another thread at the time of the pick that the move-up pretty much sumed up the interest in Graham that this was not a completely out of blue moment for Nix and Co.

Most likely the Bills, like all the teams, called out to 3 or so prospects before their pick to inform them that they are being picked. Graham probably told them that Jaguars or some other team was already on the line with him. It could be that he made up the story to fool the Bills but as you know in this industry, very few trying to fool their propective employer unless your name is Rosenhaus (even then it was a roundabout way of a fake phone call to McGahee instead of outright lie to the Bills).

That's why I don't think he'll be available in later rounds just because some TV people have a 7th round grade on him. I'll agree that he's less known and has question marks on whether he'll be what the Bills think he can be. But I don't agree that he'll be available to the Bills in 7th round.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

graham also runs a 10.3 100 meter! sick acceleration and sick top end speed!

[Mahdi]

Buffalo uses a zone blocking scheme? I was under the distinct impression that they use a straight up power scheme that does not require the mobility that a zone scheme does.
Yeah we're not zone. We were a couple years ago.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

graham also runs a 10.3 100 meter! sick acceleration and sick top end speed!

That's why I think he might be better compared to a Don Beebe. Similar stature, similar background. We can only hope for similar results ... though Graham won't have a Jim Kelly throw him the ball.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

I love this story from Beebe. I admit it was before my time following football as I do now and I didn't see it live. Would love to see Graham does what Beebe did as a rookie; but somehow, I have trouble seeing Fitz and Thigpen pulling off what Kelly and Reich did (completely different persona and ability) --

First Game, First Catch, First Touchdown

Don Beebe, Buffalo’s top draft choice (third round) in 1989, possessed bulletlike speed. But during the first two games of his rookie season, the wide receiver was left in the holster, so to speak, and did not play.
“We weren’t in the K-Gun offense then, and I was the fourth receiver,” said Beebe. “After the second week, [quarterback Jim] Kelly went into Coach Levy’s office and said, ‘Hey, listen, I want Beebe on the field.’ And lo and behold, they cut Chris Burkett, and he signed with the Jets. So I got an opportunity because of Jim to play in my first game, which was against the Houston Oilers at the Astrodome on September 24. I felt very honored that Jim would go in. I was a high pick and could run, and I think Jim wanted to utilize that ability because he loved to throw it deep, as every quarterback does. Especially Jim! He wanted to throw it deep, and the first opportunity that he got, he did!”
That, he did. During the Bills’ first possession of the second half, the wide-eyed No. 82 was in the huddle and heard Kelly call a run play. “I remember going up to the line of scrimmage and [cornerback] Cris Dishman was bump-and-run on me. He was talking trash, and it was all in fun, but he was saying stuff like, ‘Hey! I hear the white boy can run! Let’s see it! Let’s see it!’ I was scared to death,” Beebe laughed. “So on third down, I’m in the huddle and it’s a pass play. I’m supposed to run a post-corner. Jim looks at me and says, ‘Beebs, if Dishman’s pressing you again, just take him! Take him deep! I don’t care what route you’ve got, run by him!’ So I’m thinking, ‘Oh, God, here we go.’ I go up to the line of scrimmage and Dishman’s talking trash again, and I beat him for a 63-yard touchdown.”
It was Beebe’s first NFL catch, first touchdown, and well, the first time he was mugged by jubilant teammates.
"Oh, it was euphoria. You watch a guy score a touchdown, and you’ll see a couple guys come up and high-five him or pat him on the butt or whatever," said Beebe. "You watch that game, and the first guy that was there was Andre [Reed]. He came in and tackled me! He hit me, and I actually hurt my shoulder, he was so excited. Then everybody on that team was down on that field congratulating me. I couldn’t believe it. And then after I got to the sideline and everybody stopped saying congratulations and all that, I actually sat there on the bench and was reflecting of what just happened. I’m thinking, ‘Oh, my God! I just scored a touchdown!’ I knew that my whole family was at home watching because I told them I was going to play on third downs. It was a cool moment for me as everything quieted and I was just sitting there alone on the bench.
“And this is the funny part about the story. I remember the next time I come out of the huddle, I’m walking up to the line of scrimmage and Dishman comes up to bump-and-run, and he’s says, ‘Dang, I guess the white boy can run!’ and he backed up about four or five steps.”
Even if word spread around the league that the "white boy" could indeed run, it would not have mattered. Five games later against the Dolphins, Beebe was on the receiving end of another 63-yard touchdown pass. This one was from Kelly’s backup, Frank Reich.
“During the course of that game, I remember Frank kept saying, ‘Hey, Beebs! I promise you, we’re coming to it. I know you can take him. I’m still waiting for the right opportunity to audible to it.’ And sure enough, we got the play called. Frank threw; there’ve been some great passes thrown my way, but that ball was so perfect. What you want on a deep ball is your receiver to actually accelerate though the ball. And that ball couldn’t have been placed more perfectly. I really accelerated and reached out and just caught the nose of it. It was really kind of an easy thing, I’ll be honest with you; it was just a great throw.”
Excerpt from "Then Levy Said to Kelly…"

[stuckincincy]

I think I put in another thread at the time of the pick that the move-up pretty much sumed up the interest in Graham that this was not a completely out of blue moment for Nix and Co.

Most likely the Bills, like all the teams, called out to 3 or so prospects before their pick to inform them that they are being picked. Graham probably told them that Jaguars or some other team was already on the line with him. It could be that he made up the story to fool the Bills but as you know in this industry, very few trying to fool their propective employer unless your name is Rosenhaus (even then it was a roundabout way of a fake phone call to McGahee instead of outright lie to the Bills).

That's why I don't think he'll be available in later rounds just because some TV people have a 7th round grade on him. I'll agree that he's less known and has question marks on whether he'll be what the Bills think he can be. But I don't agree that he'll be available to the Bills in 7th round.

Well - I didn't imply that he would last to the 7th. Nix etc. had a higher grade on him than most clubs. That trade-up gives credence to that.

The sixth pick in the third round gave a lot of options - a developmental QB (Nick Foles, PHI #88)? A DT in case Kyle Wms. shows up as damaged goods (CIN, Brandon Thompson #93)?

IMO, a good punter is vital on any team, but I don't buy into words that say that JAX said "Rats! We lost T.J. Graham! Next best pick for us is the punter, Anger!"

We can only wait and see. :bike:

[stuckincincy]

"Bills general manager Buddy Nix has done a great job finding starters in the third round or later in recent drafts."

McShay might or might not be right on rounds later than the 3rd - dunno.

But the 3rd?

Those players are:

'08 - Chris Ellis
'09 - no selection
'10 - Alex Carrington
'11 - Kevin Shepperd.

22 starts by #3's over 4 years?

[YardRat]

They have to have a deep threat. I consider him a Lee Evans type of guy that Frtitz threw to a few times two years ago.

The same Lee Evans we traded because he didn't fit the system?

[Dozerdog]

Well - I didn't imply that he would last to the 7th. Nix etc. had a higher grade on him than most clubs. That trade-up gives credence to that.

The sixth pick in the third round gave a lot of options - a developmental QB (Nick Foles, PHI #88)? A DT in case Kyle Wms. shows up as damaged goods (CIN, Brandon Thompson #93)?

IMO, a good punter is vital on any team, but I don't buy into words that say that JAX said "Rats! We lost T.J. Graham! Next best pick for us is the punter, Anger!"

We can only wait and see. :bike:
Listening to the NFL Radio guys on Sirius ( The former GMs and players) the general consensus is that the 5-6-7 th round guys are not looked to make an immediate impact on your team (outside of special teams). If they were, they would have been drafted in rds 1-2-3

Nix wasn't trying to fill a WR spot- he wanted a very specific WR with specific skills. Something the rest of the guys on the roster and the rest of the guys in the draft don't have. I have no issues giving up a 7th rounder (since we had 2) to guarantee you get this guy.

No team has their sights on a guy in the 7th round. If they want "that guy"- they get him a lot earlier. 7th round is for beating out other teams on an UDFA talent, camp fodder, potential OL backups, and STers.


Yo have a better shot at developing a QB someone cut that they drafted in earlier rounds a few years prior.

[stuckincincy]

I have no big issue with giving up a 7th to WAS, either. They don't mean a lot - but odd that BUF felt a need to move up from 8 to 6 in the 3rd.

In his tenure with BUF, Buddy (and his minions) haven't seemed to be very good in the wr department. Their #1 is a 7th rounder that showed up a lot better than imagined. Luck happens.

You said, "Nix wasn't trying to fill a WR spot- he wanted a very specific WR with specific skills. Something the rest of the guys on the roster and the rest of the guys in the draft don't have."

His specific skills seem to be special teams first, then fill in as a WR. Very economical.