Breaking down the schedule

[BillsOverDolphins]

I think most people here would agree that the schedule gives us room for optimism this year. We play arguably the two weakest divisions in each conference (definitely in the NFC), and the AFC East has seen better days too.

Looking at the schedule, we have games we should win, games we will probably lose, and swing games. Sure, we could win and lose some we're not expected to, but if it evens out then the swing games will make or break our season.

Here's how I see it breaking down into those 3 aforementioned sections:

Likely losses:

Patriots
@49ers
@Texans
@Patriots

Likely wins:

Chiefs
@Browns
Dolphins
Jaguars
Rams
Seahawks

Swing games:

@Jets
@Cardinals
Titans
@Colts
@Dolphins
Jets


The key is going 4-2 in the swings. I put the Colts in there because it's a Week 12 road matchup and Luck could be well-adjusted by then. Cardinals are always tough at home, too.

I think 10-6 is doable, but still have my reservations. The opener against the Jets is going to be huge, imo.

[justasportsfan]

not sure why the colts would be a swing game with a rookie qb and a rebuilding team.

[BillsOverDolphins]

We're not exactly the best road team in the world, and if Luck is as good as advertised he could be coming into his own by Week 12.

[Skooby]

We're not exactly the best road team in the world, and if Luck is as good as advertised he could be coming into his own by Week 12.

Luck is a season or two from getting it together at best, it took Peyton that long to get organized & he's one of the best QB's ever.

[DynaPaul]

Call me crazy but I think we could sweep NE this year.

[ServoBillieves]

15-1

[PTI]

We're not exactly the best road team in the world, and if Luck is as good as advertised he could be coming into his own by Week 12.

A lot of people just brush this off. They assume a game like Arizona on the road is a sure win too. Indy is a different time zone too, somewhat off of a routine a little bit. The Bills have one ONE game each of the last seasons on the road. Two total road wins the last two seasons. Lowest in the NFL.

Bills will have improved a bunch if they can manage 3 wins on the road.

[BillsOverDolphins]

Buffalo won 2 roadies in 2010 (Cincy, Miami), but your point remains--it's hard to mark any road games as sure-fire W's with this team. Cleveland may be the exception though.

[PTI]

OOps, can't count.

[PTI]

Oooops, my bad. Can't count.

[BillsOverDolphins]

Call me crazy but I think we could sweep NE this year.
You're crazy.

[Skooby]

You're crazy.

He's insane, you can fix crazy.

[PTI]

You're crazy.

In the last 11 years Bills beat Patriots twice in the Brady era (lost twice to Cassel). 0 times on the road. Both games one thing is common, Tom Brady threw 4 INTs. Tom Brady has 5 career games throwing 4 INTs, Patriot lost all 5.

I will go out on a limb and say if Tom Brady throws 4 INTs in both games this year that the Bills will sweep the Patriots.

[casdhf]

We play better football indoors

[mayotm]

I think most people here would agree that the schedule gives us room for optimism this year. We play arguably the two weakest divisions in each conference (definitely in the NFC), and the AFC East has seen better days too.

Looking at the schedule, we have games we should win, games we will probably lose, and swing games. Sure, we could win and lose some we're not expected to, but if it evens out then the swing games will make or break our season.

Here's how I see it breaking down into those 3 aforementioned sections:

Likely losses:

Patriots
@49ers
@Texans
@Patriots

Likely wins:

Chiefs
@Browns
Dolphins
Jaguars
Rams
Seahawks

Swing games:

@Jets
@Cardinals
Titans
@Colts
@Dolphins
Jets


The key is going 4-2 in the swings. I put the Colts in there because it's a Week 12 road matchup and Luck could be well-adjusted by then. Cardinals are always tough at home, too.

I think 10-6 is doable, but still have my reservations. The opener against the Jets is going to be huge, imo.I agree for the most part. Although I don't put as much weight on the opener as you do. A win would be great because they would have a real good shot at starting 3 - 0 followed by a home game against NE. However, a loss wouldn't be the end of the world.

[BillsOverDolphins]

I think it's a big game because 1. It's a divisional matchup, and 2. This team needs to psychologically get over the hump of Rex Ryan's D. The Jets have dominated us during his tenure, and a win would go a long way in instilling confidence in this team.

I know we should be guarded about Fool's Gold beginnings, but a win @NYJ would be invaluable, imo.

[mayotm]

I think it's a big game because 1. It's a divisional matchup, and 2. This team needs to psychologically get over the hump of Rex Ryan's D. The Jets have dominated us during his tenure, and a win would go a long way in instilling confidence in this team.

I know we should be guarded about Fool's Gold beginnings, but a win @NYJ would be invaluable, imo.All valid points. I just don't think a loss would define the season. I think the key to the Bills making a serious playoff run is making it through the first 9 games at 4 - 5 or better. On paper, the last seven games are all winnable. In fact, they may be favored in all seven games.

[Skooby]

All valid points. I just don't think a loss would define the season. I think the key to the Bills making a serious playoff run is making it through the first 9 games at 4 - 5 or better. On paper, the last seven games are all winnable. In fact, they may be favored in all seven games.

Put a flap jacket on Fitz early, those ribs need protecting.

[BillsOverDolphins]

All valid points. I just don't think a loss would define the season. I think the key to the Bills making a serious playoff run is making it through the first 9 games at 4 - 5 or better. On paper, the last seven games are all winnable. In fact, they may be favored in all seven games.
I agree on being 4-5 at the very least through the first half of the season. I also don't think the Jet game will break us if we lose, but it's one of the more important swing or "toss-up" games, tbh. We need to be able to make headway in this division for once. Also, any early Jets losses will contribute to the ticking timebomb that is their QB situation. A win would be doubly beneficial for us in that regard.

I just wanna beat those bastards.

[better days]

I think it's a big game because 1. It's a divisional matchup, and 2. This team needs to psychologically get over the hump of Rex Ryan's D. The Jets have dominated us during his tenure, and a win would go a long way in instilling confidence in this team.

I know we should be guarded about Fool's Gold beginnings, but a win @NYJ would be invaluable, imo.

And can you imagine the turmoil in New Jersey when the Jets lose the opener to the Bills? After the Bills win that game, I will look forward to reading the NY papers, especially the Post.

[X-Era]

I think most people here would agree that the schedule gives us room for optimism this year. We play arguably the two weakest divisions in each conference (definitely in the NFC), and the AFC East has seen better days too.

Looking at the schedule, we have games we should win, games we will probably lose, and swing games. Sure, we could win and lose some we're not expected to, but if it evens out then the swing games will make or break our season.

Here's how I see it breaking down into those 3 aforementioned sections:

Likely losses:

Patriots
@49ers
@Texans
@Patriots

Likely wins:

Chiefs
@Browns
Dolphins
Jaguars
Rams
Seahawks

Swing games:

@Jets
@Cardinals
Titans
@Colts
@Dolphins
Jets


The key is going 4-2 in the swings. I put the Colts in there because it's a Week 12 road matchup and Luck could be well-adjusted by then. Cardinals are always tough at home, too.

I think 10-6 is doable, but still have my reservations. The opener against the Jets is going to be huge, imo.Cards, Colts, and Fins are likely wins IMO. I see a clear path to 9 wins with 10 being very doable. I mean the Colts and Fins have no QB of note. The Cards have been real sketchy. I don't think splitting with the Pats is out of the question either.

[PTI]

Cards, Colts, and Fins are likely wins IMO. I see a clear path to 9 wins with 10 being very doable. I mean the Colts and Fins have no QB of note. The Cards have been real sketchy. I don't think splitting with the Pats is out of the question either.

Cards won 5 of their last 6 and were 6-2 at home, I really do not see the Bills winning that game at all.

[TigerJ]

We're not exactly the best road team in the world, and if Luck is as good as advertised he could be coming into his own by Week 12. I haven't followed the Colts that closely, but I think they had about as close to a total collapse as a team can have. Granted, Luck may be the best QB to come out of college in a long time, but I think the Colts are still a number of pieces away from being considered a competitive team.

[jamze132]

not sure why the colts would be a swing game with a rookie qb and a rebuilding team.
Aparently you haven't heard the news about Andrew Luck's bronze bust already in the works.

[jamze132]

We have a tough beginning to the season and will have a tough couple of back-to-back west coast games.

The teams we are playing give us an "easier" schedule if you will, but the way everything is laid it kind of sucks until the season draws to a close when we're at home a substantial part of the time.

[YardRat]

I agree that the Jets opener is huge. Could be the difference between the team making the playoffs or sitting home once again.

[Meathead]

And can you imagine the turmoil in New Jersey when the Jets lose the opener to the Bills? After the Bills win that game, I will look forward to reading the NY papers, especially the Post.
i like to read them slowly, pausing on every expression of pain, really savoring the moaning and gnashing of teeth

[mjt328]

I was arguing with my brother the other day, telling him that I believed the Bills would make the playoffs this year. He said they wouldn't make the playoffs until we improved at the quarterback position.

While I agree that QB is still a questionable position, look at the other teams we play this year.


In the elite category, there is of course Tom Brady, who we play twice.

I think Matt Schaub is definitely a better quarterback than Fitz.

Eventually, Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford will be better. But both are young and raw. Luck is a rookie.

The remaining 11 GAMES are against passers that are arguably on the same level or lower than Fitz:

Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow (x 2)
Matt Cassel
Colt McCoy/Brandon Weeden
Alex Smith
Kevin Kolb
Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker
Ryan Tannehill/Matt Moore (x 2)
Blaine Gabbert
Matt Flynn/Tarvaris Jackson

[tampabay25690]

I wanna see this team practice together 1st.

Then I will look at the schedule, want to see how the positions shape up on defense...

[better days]

I was arguing with my brother the other day, telling him that I believed the Bills would make the playoffs this year. He said they wouldn't make the playoffs until we improved at the quarterback position.

While I agree that QB is still a questionable position, look at the other teams we play this year.


In the elite category, there is of course Tom Brady, who we play twice.

I think Matt Schaub is definitely a better quarterback than Fitz.

Eventually, Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford will be better. But both are young and raw. Luck is a rookie.

The remaining 11 GAMES are against passers that are arguably on the same level or lower than Fitz:

Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow (x 2)
Matt Cassel
Colt McCoy/Brandon Weeden
Alex Smith
Kevin Kolb
Matt Hasselbeck/Jake Locker
Ryan Tannehill/Matt Moore (x 2)
Blaine Gabbert
Matt Flynn/Tarvaris Jackson

So PTI is your brother?

[PromoTheRobot]

Luck is a season or two from getting it together at best, it took Peyton that long to get organized & he's one of the best QB's ever.


How is Luck's arm while running for his life?

PTR

[Skooby]

How is Luck's arm while running for his life?

PTR

Throwing while falling isn't going to increase his net yield either, lol.

[justasportsfan]

We're not exactly the best road team in the world, and if Luck is as good as advertised he could be coming into his own by Week 12.
you can throw away what happened last year. The bills are a different team not only with MArio and Anderson but if the team stays healthy, I'm not sure Luck and the colts will be ready to handle us.

[better days]

you can throw away what happened last year. The bills are a different team not only with MArio and Anderson but if the team stays healthy, I'm not sure Luck and the colts will be ready to handle us.

The Colts are a different team as well. New Coaches, new systems on both offense & defense, new players.

This game is a gimmie for the Bills if there ever was one.

[jamze132]

I agree that the Jets opener is huge. Could be the difference between the team making the playoffs or sitting home once again.
I wouldn't say our playoff hopes are in jeopardy if we lose, but it is extremely important that we beat those asshats to shut them up!

[stuckincincy]

Likely losses:

Patriots
@49ers
@Texans
@Patriots




TMQ chimes in on HOU...

..."Houston: In January, the Texans were a couple of plays away from the AFC title game. Now Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and Eric Winston, all quality starters, are gone, while Mike Brisiel, Jason Allen and Joel Dreessen, solid players, departed too. Has the Texans' front office become overconfident? The Texans had never reached the playoffs before this past season. But merely reaching the postseason should not be enough to satisfy an NFL organization."...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7874622/tmq-says-skinny-guys-cornerbacks-rule-modern-nfl-draft