Analysis: 11 of Fitz's 23 picks were his fault

[Philagape]

In an attempt to explain away that startling total, we locked some Trending Buffalo staffers in the “film room” and wouldn’t let them out until they reached consensus on an explanation for each of the TWENTY THREE picks.

http://www.trendingbuffalo.com/the-truth-about-fitz-and-picks/

:couch:

[YardRat]

I think they were a little bit generous in their scoring rubric.

[BillsOwnAll]

I mean im one of the biggest fitz defender on this board, but I cant agree with "good defense" being taken away from his total. Through receivers hands, 4th and longs. Is ok whatever, but fitz should see the good def and in turn not throw the ball there in a perfect world.

[DraftBoy]

Not sure I quite understand the situation aspect of the scoring...

[BertSquirtgum]

I call bull****.

[Oaf]

The Giants picks still haunt me today.

[BertSquirtgum]

The Giants picks still haunt me today.

Two of the exact same throws. For somebody so smart, you would think he would learn from his previous mistake. What a bum.

[stuckincincy]

Not sure I quite understand the situation aspect of the scoring...

Nor I. I'd define it as things like being down late and heaving a long one on 3rd or 4th down. Or midfield in the waning seconds of the 2nd, and taking a shot at a score.

[DraftBoy]

Nor I. I'd define it as things like being down late and heaving a long one on 3rd or 4th down. Or midfield in the waning seconds of the 2nd, and taking a shot at a score.

Yea some of those like INT #3;

INT # 3: Week 3 vs NE, Q1 (:21) Down 14-0, 4th and 14 at NE35
Fitzpatrick stepped up in the pocket and tried to squeeze in a pass to David Nelson between defenders on 4th and 14.

That has little to nothing to do with the situation and everything to do with Fitz forcing a pass into coverage.

[stuckincincy]

Yea some of those like INT #3;


That has little to nothing to do with the situation and everything to do with Fitz forcing a pass into coverage.

The author blamed that one on the receiver. Odd.

Odd play decision by the coaches, IMO. NE is up 14 - 0 at the :21 mark of the first. I have the ball on NE's 35. I'd either try the FG or punt it. No way am I going to try and make a 4th and 14 on a 35-yard field that early in the game.

[Philagape]

I think the point is, on 4th-and-14, a QB has no choice but to take greater risks with throws that he wouldn't otherwise try.

[stuckincincy]

I think the point is, on 4th-and-14, a QB has no choice but to take greater risks with throws that he wouldn't otherwise try.

Yes - that is certainly so. I just question the play call to go for it in that situation.

[DraftBoy]

I think the point is, on 4th-and-14, a QB has no choice but to take greater risks with throws that he wouldn't otherwise try.

Yes but he always bears the responsibility of not forcing throws. I find it difficult to see how a situation can be blamed for an INT being thrown short of the Hail Mary INT.

[GingerP]

Nice.

So this guy gets Fitz down to 11 interceptions. Also, we can throw out any ints after the Washington game, because the ribs were at fault after all.

That means Fitz actually had -4 interceptions. That should help his QB Rating too.

[Jeff1220]

This article has "adjusted interceptions"which also accounts for picks that were dropped:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/adjusted-interceptions-2011

[stuckincincy]

This article has "adjusted interceptions"which also accounts for picks that were dropped:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/adjusted-interceptions-2011

Thanks - appreciate the additional analysis.

[justasportsfan]

article written most likely by Fitz's relative.

[Philagape]

Yes but he always bears the responsibility of not forcing throws. I find it difficult to see how a situation can be blamed for an INT being thrown short of the Hail Mary INT.

A forced throw is one of those greater risks. If the choice is forcing the throw or likely not getting enough for the first down, you force the throw.

[BertSquirtgum]

article written most likely by Fitz's relative.

More than likely, it was written by Fitz himself.

[DraftBoy]

A forced throw is one of those greater risks. If the choice is forcing the throw or likely not getting enough for the first down, you force the throw.

No you don't, a turnover is always worse than punting the ball and playing the field position game. Especially in the 1st Quarter down only two scores.

[justasportsfan]

More than likely, it was written by Fitz himself.

He's a harvard grad. The words would've been more eloquent.

[Philagape]

No you don't, a turnover is always worse than punting the ball and playing the field position game. Especially in the 1st Quarter down only two scores.

Not punting is the coach's decision.

[DraftBoy]

Not punting is the coach's decision.

And throwing the ball into coverage is the QB's decision.

Im not excusing Gailey for calling the play (which by the way isn't technically wrong) but we aren't discussing that.

[gebobs]

This article has "adjusted interceptions"which also accounts for picks that were dropped:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/adjusted-interceptions-2011

Oy...VY has a rate of 7%.

Frickin' Rodgers man...less than 1%.

[Philagape]

And throwing the ball into coverage is the QB's decision.

Im not excusing Gailey for calling the play (which by the way isn't technically wrong) but we aren't discussing that.

You're the one talking about punting.
On 4th and 14, throwing into coverage may very well be the right decision.

[stuckincincy]

And throwing the ball into coverage is the QB's decision.

Im not excusing Gailey for calling the play (which by the way isn't technically wrong) but we aren't discussing that.

I am discussing that. I do not excuse Gailey. There is this trend - the talking heads like to use the term "no man's land", or some such. I see it every Sunday - it's not exclusive to BUF.

Roll the dice and try the 52 yard FG from the 35. Ball on the 35 isn't the best, but never turn your back on a scoring opportunity IMO. Or punt. That Fitz forced the ball is so - but I won't chide my qb for doing so, faced with 4th and 14 in a shortened field.

[PTI]

The INT column in Fitz's stats says 23.

If that game is played I want them to count how many just threw up for grabs that defenders dropped of WRs had to play CB on.

[gebobs]

The INT column in Fitz's stats says 23.

If that game is played I want them to count how many just threw up for grabs that defenders dropped of WRs had to play CB on.
Translation please.

[PTI]

Translation please.

Pick machine.

[DraftBoy]

You're the one talking about punting.
On 4th and 14, throwing into coverage may very well be the right decision.

Yes I acknowledge that, my mistake.

You'll have to lay out exactly how throwing directly into coverage is ever the right option, outside of the hail mary play.

[PTI]

Yes I acknowledge that, my mistake.

You'll have to lay out exactly how throwing directly into coverage is ever the right option, outside of the hail mary play.


the 3rd and 1 30 yard pass overthrown by 10 yards is a great option too.

[Philagape]

Yes I acknowledge that, my mistake.

You'll have to lay out exactly how throwing directly into coverage is ever the right option, outside of the hail mary play.

When the other options have no better a chance of getting 14 yards.
Defense will be all over the IMs. The other feasible options would be checking down and hoping for YAC; throwing downfield; or scrambling for it, and those aren't any safer.

[DraftBoy]

When the other options have no better a chance of getting 14 yards.
Defense will be all over the IMs. The other feasible options would be checking down and hoping for YAC; throwing downfield; or scrambling for it, and those aren't any safer.

So just so Im clear here, you'd rather throw a pick than a check down? While both are turnovers, only one of those results in the potential of it turning into an immediate touchdown.

[Philagape]

So just so Im clear here, you'd rather throw a pick than a check down? While both are turnovers, only one of those results in the potential of it turning into an immediate touchdown.

The odds of that are low enough for me, depending on the route.
A pick also may get you better field position than a TO on downs. (The result of the play in question was a net gain of 5 yards)

[SABURZFAN]

but.... but.... but he was injured for a lot of those picks. let's just make up an excuse that we all can agree on. :birds:

[DraftBoy]

The odds of that are low enough for me, depending on the route.
A pick also may get you better field position than a TO on downs. (The result of the play in question was a net gain of 5 yards)

The odds of a check down being returned for a TD are 0%, and I far prefer those odds.

[YardRat]

I'm certainly not sticking up for the ratings used in this 'study', or for Fitz, but if it's 4th and 14 in your opponent's territory and you don't punt, you damn well better attempt to get the ball 14 yards downfield for the first down. C'mon...how many times over the years have we all *****ed about Johnson, Edwards, etc going for the checkdown in similar situations instead of throwing for the stick?

[DraftBoy]

I'm certainly not sticking up for the ratings used in this 'study', or for Fitz, but if it's 4th and 14 in your opponent's territory and you don't punt, you damn well better attempt to get the ball 14 yards downfield for the first down. C'mon...how many times over the years have we all *****ed about Johnson, Edwards, etc going for the checkdown in similar situations instead of throwing for the stick?

Plenty but some of those check downs were the right read. You don't force throws into coverage just because.