Tweet
Pre-Season Observations
Here are my overall observation regarding the Bills up to this point and what they have shown us thus far:
Offense
This new NFL is all about YPA not completion percentage and as a result of low YPA I expect them to be a middle of the road offense at best. Bills will excel against poor defenses -bad d-lines & secondaries (thing Rams)- and struggle against good defenses. As a result of poor YPA the Bills PPG will all come down to 3rd down conversion rate which they will struggle with. Offensive Rank Point Per Game: 15th
QB: no improvement from last year. This is the same old Fitz that we saw toward the end of last season. Fits lacks an elite arm and much needed accuracy. Lack of long ball will result in same sort of game plan against Bills offense and Fitz.
WR: They dont have a true #1 receiver they have a 1B receiver. In fact, if Johnson was a part of some of the best WR tandems (think Harrison and Wayne) he would be the 3rd receiver! Whats worse is that after Johnson, there are no good WR, just a bunch of 3s and 4s.
RB: Jackson is special.He is already the 3rd best un-drafted RB of all time! Spiller is a very good 2nd RB.
O-Line: I expect them to be as good as last year, if not slightly better. They are good at pass protection of quick passes -3 step drops- however have a hard time with longer developing plays. From a talent perspective they are slightly better than average but scheme has protected them. In the run game they open holes. Their major area of concern is starting a rookie at LT.
TE: I like the TE. Chandler is not a game breaker, but definetely adds something to the offense.
Defense
The defense almost feels like two separate units, the line and everyone else. The line is great, everyone else is a work in progress at best. Like the offense, the defense will dominate sub-par competition and get torched vs good passing offenses with good o-lines. The success of the defense will be predicated on the D-Line and the Bills will go as they go. Like Bills teams of the past, it seems to me that when the other team wants it more, they dictate. Against talented Offenses, in a 2min situation, I expect the offense to win that battle 7/10 times! Overall rank: Top 10
Line: Strength of Team. Teams will have a hard time running. The front four will bring much pressure but when they don't, watch out.
LB: They are silly, really silly like a bunch of girls playing football. Its almost comical watching them.
DB: Very Green. I expect that their youth will cost us a lot of downfield plays. It will be worth it, if they learn, grow, and improve from their mistakes.
SS/FS: Supposedly both are top 3 NFL Safeties however they give up to many plays over the top. Both are good generating takeaways, however sometimes they are incorrect position and take poor angles. For as high as they are ranked, neither is a Bob Sanders, or a Troy P, or an Ed Reed. They are not game-breakers.
Special Teams
Its supposedly 1/3 of the game but they are no hall of fame special team players. None! So I, like the rest of the NFL don't really see it as 1/3 of the game, but rather an aspect that can help you win or loose but most likely wont determine either. I expect the Bills to win the field advantage.
Punt Return Game: I expect an above average return game. Returning kicks that are booted from inside 20 gives return man advantage as he is not backed up into his own end zone.
Kick Off Return Game: Average at best. I don't think we will return more than 1kick for TD.
Punting: Morman may be best punter of his generation. With better field position, he could have a record number of kicks inside the 10!
Field Goals: Very Solid.
Kick Offs: 8/8??? Everytime this guy kicks its a touch back! Simple great. He might set a record for touchbacks this year! On the negative side, the few times they return a kick, will return unit be ready after being so used to touchback after touchback.
Season Expectations:
Defense Will: Beat up on bad offenses, play even with good ones, and loose to great ones.
Offense Will: Struggle to score and convert 3rd downs vs good and great defenses and excel vs poor ones.
Offense
This new NFL is all about YPA not completion percentage and as a result of low YPA I expect them to be a middle of the road offense at best. Bills will excel against poor defenses -bad d-lines & secondaries (thing Rams)- and struggle against good defenses. As a result of poor YPA the Bills PPG will all come down to 3rd down conversion rate which they will struggle with. Offensive Rank Point Per Game: 15th
QB: no improvement from last year. This is the same old Fitz that we saw toward the end of last season. Fits lacks an elite arm and much needed accuracy. Lack of long ball will result in same sort of game plan against Bills offense and Fitz.
WR: They dont have a true #1 receiver they have a 1B receiver. In fact, if Johnson was a part of some of the best WR tandems (think Harrison and Wayne) he would be the 3rd receiver! Whats worse is that after Johnson, there are no good WR, just a bunch of 3s and 4s.
RB: Jackson is special.He is already the 3rd best un-drafted RB of all time! Spiller is a very good 2nd RB.
O-Line: I expect them to be as good as last year, if not slightly better. They are good at pass protection of quick passes -3 step drops- however have a hard time with longer developing plays. From a talent perspective they are slightly better than average but scheme has protected them. In the run game they open holes. Their major area of concern is starting a rookie at LT.
TE: I like the TE. Chandler is not a game breaker, but definetely adds something to the offense.
Defense
The defense almost feels like two separate units, the line and everyone else. The line is great, everyone else is a work in progress at best. Like the offense, the defense will dominate sub-par competition and get torched vs good passing offenses with good o-lines. The success of the defense will be predicated on the D-Line and the Bills will go as they go. Like Bills teams of the past, it seems to me that when the other team wants it more, they dictate. Against talented Offenses, in a 2min situation, I expect the offense to win that battle 7/10 times! Overall rank: Top 10
Line: Strength of Team. Teams will have a hard time running. The front four will bring much pressure but when they don't, watch out.
LB: They are silly, really silly like a bunch of girls playing football. Its almost comical watching them.
DB: Very Green. I expect that their youth will cost us a lot of downfield plays. It will be worth it, if they learn, grow, and improve from their mistakes.
SS/FS: Supposedly both are top 3 NFL Safeties however they give up to many plays over the top. Both are good generating takeaways, however sometimes they are incorrect position and take poor angles. For as high as they are ranked, neither is a Bob Sanders, or a Troy P, or an Ed Reed. They are not game-breakers.
Special Teams
Its supposedly 1/3 of the game but they are no hall of fame special team players. None! So I, like the rest of the NFL don't really see it as 1/3 of the game, but rather an aspect that can help you win or loose but most likely wont determine either. I expect the Bills to win the field advantage.
Punt Return Game: I expect an above average return game. Returning kicks that are booted from inside 20 gives return man advantage as he is not backed up into his own end zone.
Kick Off Return Game: Average at best. I don't think we will return more than 1kick for TD.
Punting: Morman may be best punter of his generation. With better field position, he could have a record number of kicks inside the 10!
Field Goals: Very Solid.
Kick Offs: 8/8??? Everytime this guy kicks its a touch back! Simple great. He might set a record for touchbacks this year! On the negative side, the few times they return a kick, will return unit be ready after being so used to touchback after touchback.
Season Expectations:
Defense Will: Beat up on bad offenses, play even with good ones, and loose to great ones.
Offense Will: Struggle to score and convert 3rd downs vs good and great defenses and excel vs poor ones.
Comment