Lance Z on Mario Williams, "Worse than at any time with Houston"

[kingJofNYC]

So we all remember the piece Lance Zierlein wrote about Mario when we acquired him. Well he's watched Mario's last three games and here are his thoughts.


The Bills are going to rue the contract they gave Mario Williams. Watched 3 games on him and he looks worse than at any time w/ HOU


Mario looks stiffer and slower than at any point in his career and his patented "run into blocker and stay engaged" is back


More than 1 very smart football person like Mario as a free agent, but I think they all simply fall in love with size and potential.


When has he been unstoppable? Hard to find too many games where you used "unstoppabe".


His best years were 07-08 and he's been injured for 3 straight years. He is busting because Bills had unrealistic expectations

Lance Z is one of the better NFL writers, he's always been fair to Mario, but I think he pretty much nails it. Overreached for this guy, was never that good to begin with, on the decline. Hated the amount of money they gave this guy, so irresponsible for a team like the Bills.

[mrbojanglezs]

Anyone think bills cut him after 2013 season when his Gauranteed money is paid?

[kingJofNYC]

Anyone think bills cut him after 2013 season when his Gauranteed money is paid?

According to Florio, we can walk away with no problem after the 2013 season.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/17/breaking-down-the-mario-williams-deal/

[kingJofNYC]

Here's another breakdown of the numbers.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2012/3/17/2880629/mario-williams-contract-breakdown-buffalo-bills

Can't wait to get rid of him to be honest.

[nolimit]

this is all very comical....when the bills dont spend...ralph is cheap...when they do spend....its regrettable...cant have it both ways....I loved that the bills went out a snagged their guy....has it worked out?...not to this point...but where else were we going to get a top flight DE....

[imbondz]

so we lose around $25 million if we cut him next year. big deal

[OpIv37]

this is all very comical....when the bills dont spend...ralph is cheap...when they do spend....its regrettable...cant have it both ways....I loved that the bills went out a snagged their guy....has it worked out?...not to this point...but where else were we going to get a top flight DE....

um, there's a third option: spending money on a guy who actually performs.

Being cheap guarantees failure, but spending money doesn't guarantee success. It has to be spent wisely. There are a lot of people who make a lot of money working for the Bills who are supposed to make these decisions wisely, and they have failed us once again.

[nolimit]

how would you have liked to address the DE situation in the offseason?

[OpIv37]

how would you have liked to address the DE situation in the offseason?

I don't know but the results speak for themselves. Maybe we don't and we take that $50 million that useless Mario is tying up and use it for a LB and WR. You know damn well that people on this site would be laughing their asses off if Mario got that much somewhere else and was playing this poorly. The point is that the salary cap and roster size limit what the FO can do in the off-season. Clearly, they made poor choices. The team is $50 million poorer (read: $50 mill that can't be spent against the cap over the next 2 or 3 years), and our pass rush still sucks while we still have glaring holes at LB, WR, QB and CB.

[Jeff1220]

2013 Draft - QB, LB, DE, QB, LB, DE, LB...or something like that.
(except I know one o these will be missing thanks to the QB that is currently inactive every week...wth?)

[RedEyE]

I mean when is the last time a decent FA wanted to come to Buffalo?

The ones that do are either seriously banged up, or fighting to stay in the league.

See TO, Merriman.

Decent FAs avoid or flee Buffalo. They rarely sign there. The Bills attempt to build through the draft but can't retain the players that are worth a damn.

Barnett might be the only signing exception and I even scrutinize his abilities. He had maybe 3 decent games last year.

This team is dying and has been for quite some time. One home game a year in Toronto? Pleeeeaze. I don't see any other team better positioned for the move to LA.

[kingJofNYC]

how would you have liked to address the DE situation in the offseason?

How about the draft? Isn't that how the Giants address their pass rushing needs?

Plenty of defensive ends have been available the last few draft when the Bills were on the clock in the first 2 rounds. Instead of spending a draft choice on a corner once again they could sign a guy like Carr for half of Mario's money.

[kingJofNYC]

Honestly, it doesn't even matter how they address our needs, they fail no matter what they do. Simply can't evaluate talent.

[Jeff1220]

Toronto is actually in the list of reasons the Bills probably won't go to LA. Chaka Khan down in JAX is trying to do the same thing, but 10x worse - he's using London. There is actually no team more positioned to move to LA than the Chargers.

[Albany,n.y.]

Let's wait until we get a new coach before writing off Mario.

[kingJofNYC]

Let's wait until we get a new coach before writing off Mario.

We've said that about so many players in the past. "Wait until we get a real coach, Losman will make it rain." They'll cut his ass by year 3.

[better days]

So we all remember the piece Lance Zierlein wrote about Mario when we acquired him. Well he's watched Mario's last three games and here are his thoughts.











Lance Z is one of the better NFL writers, he's always been fair to Mario, but I think he pretty much nails it. Overreached for this guy, was never that good to begin with, on the decline. Hated the amount of money they gave this guy, so irresponsible for a team like the Bills.

Not only do I not remember the piece Zierlein wrote, I never heard of him.

[JoeMama]

Somehow it's always lose/lose for this team.

By giving $100 million to Mario Williams, it's like we slapped a sign on The Ralph that reads, "We're legitimate now!"

We got a big name guy at big name money.

We hoped it would put us on the map as a desirable franchise in order to lure other big name free agents.

We hoped it would make the defense better.

Despite our best laid plans and good intentions, we're somehow worse on defense (albeit only 5 weeks in).

I'd like to think we can turn this around but Wanny seems clueless. We need to develop chemistry with the talent we have and SOON.

[kingJofNYC]

Not only do I not remember the piece Zierlein wrote, I never heard of him.

Guess you have some catching up to do.

[Bill Cody]

Let's wait until we get a new coach before writing off Mario.

Here he is. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

[Turf]

I'll bet you a Coughlin or Harbough would have this team in a much better direction and position by now. The lack of leadership, personality and competency is glaring. We've got the old southern boy approach, well geez heck we'll have to get better now that the door slammed us in the ass. Kinda like a fruit fly in a tater dip.
Thats our leadership. What a ****ing joke this club is under Ralph. Does anyone know if Ralph is even aware of whats happening or has said anything?

[trapezeus]

if you have no car and need to walk 50 miles to work everyday and just never get a car, you are cheap. Ralph.
if you finally break down and buy a maserati and then enjoy the purchase day like looking at it on your driveway and then realize, you have no money for gas, you overspent. also ralph.

if you just shop for the best of what you can afford, get some bells and whistles, and have a good mechanic that makes sure the car lasts, that's smart. that's not ralph.

[more cowbell]

Sorry - This organization is a joke HOWEVER there is no way I can fault them for going after Mario Williams and signing him (and overpaying him) to make sure he would sign here. We needed a pass rush, and this guy was the best option available, so we signed him....

[GingerP]

Not only do I not remember the piece Zierlein wrote, I never heard of him.

The article, which is actually a blog post, is here:

http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2012/03/for-bills-fans-a-scouting-report-on-mario-williams/

Zierlein is a reporter for the Houston Chronicle and a radio host in Houston. He covers the NFL mostly. He has pretty good connections in the league, as he is the son of Larry Zierlein, an assistant coach in college and the pros for over 30 years. Larry Zierlein was an assistant OL coach for the Bills in 2006, before leaving to become OL coach of the Steelers.

[coastal]

this is all very comical....when the bills dont spend...ralph is cheap...when they do spend....its regrettable...cant have it both ways....I loved that the bills went out a snagged their guy....has it worked out?...not to this point...but where else were we going to get a top flight DE....
What about he's not a top flight DE is so difficult to understand?

[coastal]

Here's another breakdown of the numbers.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2012/3/17/2880629/mario-williams-contract-breakdown-buffalo-bills

Can't wait to get rid of him to be honest.
So eat the $19+ million sign-on and this year's salary and cut our losses.

[kingJofNYC]

So eat the $19+ million sign-on and this year's salary and cut our losses.
One more year, no point in having all that dead cap space. After next he season he cutting him won't amount to much savings but it won't hurt our cap situation. After that season we save 6m by cutting him, he'll be here one more year for sure, no more than three unless he lives up to his end.

[Mouldsie]

Where the hell was Kyle Williams, Chris Kelsay, Mark Anderson, or Marcel Dareus last week?

Getting planted on their asses.

Mario needs to perform better. They all do. There is a lot to this story right now but it can be corrected.

Switch coaching staffs last week and I think the outcome is different TBH.

I was at least encouraged my Mario trying to rally his teammates last week when the Bills were down big. He wasnt giving up and he's not pulling an Albert Haynesworth. He got on his knee and called the DL over to talk to them on the side

[coastal]

Where the hell was Kyle Williams, Chris Kelsay, Mark Anderson, or Marcel Dareus last week?

Getting planted on their asses.

Mario needs to perform better. They all do. There is a lot to this story right now but it can be corrected.

Switch coaching staffs last week and I think the outcome is different TBH.

I was at least encouraged my Mario trying to rally his teammates last week when the Bills were down big. He wasnt giving up and he's not pulling an Albert Haynesworth. He got on his knee and called the DL over to talk to them on the sidetheres more to being a leader than holding pep rallys... it's called producing!

[GingerP]

One more year, no point in having all that dead cap space. After next he season he cutting him won't amount to much savings but it won't hurt our cap situation. After that season we save 6m by cutting him, he'll be here one more year for sure, no more than three unless he lives up to his end.

Your math is off. The Bills paid Williams a ton of money, and that has to be accounted for against the cap. He was paid a $19M signing bonus that is charged at $3.8M per year from 2012 to 2016. Next year he has a $8M option bonus that is allocated at $1.6M from 2013 - 2017.

If the Bills cut him after 2013, he counts for $17.8M in dead money on the 2014 cap. If they designate him as a post-June 1 release then he counts as $5.4M in dead money in 2014 and $12.4M in dead money in 2015 (when the acceleration occurs). Keep in mind, if they designate him a post-June 1 release then they have to carry his $18.4 cap number on the cap until June 1.

In short, releasing him after 2 years would suck donkey balls, cap-wise. That is a lot of dead money, which happens if you pay a guy a giant signing bonus. That said, I think it premature to talk of releasing him after 2013. Granted, he has sizeable roster bonus money starting in 2013, but it is OK to pay a guy that kind of money if he is earning it.

The best case scenario is Williams starts playing better. For all the talk of him being overpaid, he has been a good player in his career. Yeah, he may not be the best defensive player in the NFL, but that doesn't mean he isn't any good. He is off to a slow start, but it isn't unreasonable to think he is going to make a bigger impact eventually. He is only 27 years old and he has over 50 career sacks. It is way too early to talk of him being a total bust. He will play better.

[DraftBoy]

Your math is off. The Bills paid Williams a ton of money, and that has to be accounted for against the cap. He was paid a $19M signing bonus that is charged at $3.8M per year from 2012 to 2016. Next year he has a $8M option bonus that is allocated at $1.6M from 2013 - 2017.

If the Bills cut him after 2013, he counts for $17.8M in dead money on the 2014 cap. If they designate him as a post-June 1 release then he counts as $5.4M in dead money in 2014 and $12.4M in dead money in 2015 (when the acceleration occurs). Keep in mind, if they designate him a post-June 1 release then they have to carry his $18.4 cap number on the cap until June 1.

In short, releasing him after 2 years would suck donkey balls, cap-wise. That is a lot of dead money, which happens if you pay a guy a giant signing bonus. That said, I think it premature to talk of releasing him after 2013. Granted, he has sizeable roster bonus money starting in 2013, but it is OK to pay a guy that kind of money if he is earning it.

The best case scenario is Williams starts playing better. For all the talk of him being overpaid, he has been a good player in his career. Yeah, he may not be the best defensive player in the NFL, but that doesn't mean he isn't any good. He is off to a slow start, but it isn't unreasonable to think he is going to make a bigger impact eventually. He is only 27 years old and he has over 50 career sacks. It is way too early to talk of him being a total bust. He will play better.

Nice breakout and I think PFT's point was that 2015 is when the large salary cap jump is expected due to new TV deals so losing that much dead space wouldn't hurt as much as it may appear.

That being said I think any discussion to cut Mario Williams right now is premature at best.

[GingerP]

That being said I think any discussion to cut Mario Williams right now is premature at best.

I think this is the most important thing. People are trashing the guy because he isn't Jared Allen or DeMarcus Ware. However, he is a guy that can produce at a high level, and has done so in his career. I realize with the money came big expectations, but it has only been a few games.

A little perspective is needed, IMO. The best scenario for the Bills is Williams produces and gives them a steady threat at DE. That would make a big difference in theri defense.

[kingJofNYC]

Thanks for clearing it up GingerP.

Question, in the event that he doesn't turn it around, when would be the best time to cut him? Obviously, it would be better if he produced and it didn't come to that, but hypothetically speaking when would the front office do it. Considering how low his salary is for the 2014 season, wouldn't it be more beneficial to just to take the cap hit and walk away before his base salary increases into an eight figure number every year.

[kingJofNYC]

His cap hit after 13 will be 19.2, 19.8, 20.7, 16.5.

So if they part ways after 2013 season they won't be saving much, lots of dead cap, and they also have to spend to replace him.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

Toronto is actually in the list of reasons the Bills probably won't go to LA. Chaka Khan down in JAX is trying to do the same thing, but 10x worse - he's using London. There is actually no team more positioned to move to LA than the Chargers.
You realize that the Toronto agreement and the Bills lease expire at the same time, right? There's a reason for that.

[feldspar]

His cap hit after 13 will be 19.2, 19.8, 20.7, 16.5.

So if they part ways after 2013 season they won't be saving much, lots of dead cap, and they also have to spend to replace him.

I'm pretty sure we only take that kind of a cap hit if Mario is still on the team. The whole point is that we can walk away after two years, relatively unscathed. In other words, you are wrong about that. The contract gives the Bills options after next year. They cut the cord whenever they want...they can say that the rest of this contract means nothing anymore. We aren't going to take a cap hit based on what we WOULD have paid Williams if he were still on the team...

[feldspar]

To all you other numbskulls who think that the Bills should have gone out and got a lot of skilled low-payed players in free agenecy instead of Mario, I don't know what to tell you...like this whole thing is supposed to be easy and there's no competition for anybody with a good reputation on the free market. I think the getting Mario Williams was worth the risk. I also think that picking up Merriman was worth the risk.

[kingJofNYC]

I'm pretty sure we only take that kind of a cap hit if Mario is still on the team. The whole point is that we can walk away after two years, relatively unscathed. In other words, you are wrong about that. The contract gives the Bills options after next year. They cut the cord whenever they want...they can say that the rest of this contract means nothing anymore. We aren't going to take a cap hit based on what we WOULD have paid Williams if he were still on the team...

Right, that's what I thought, and posted originally but Ginger said my math was off. After year two we take a dead cap hit of about 17m+, as opposed to the 19m+ cap hit we would take with Mario on the roster. Still save around 1m or so because he has performance based escalators in the numbers I posted. After year 3 they save more by parting ways with him, but it's feasible after year 2. In reality keeping him on the roster after year 2 is probably a better solution, because you figure we have to pay someone else to replace him, so when you add it up we're tying up a lot of money at the LE spot. Hopefully we draft a DE early this year, so it's a cost controlled asset for the future.

[feldspar]

Right, that's what I thought, and posted originally but Ginger said my math was off. After year two we take a dead cap hit of about 17m+, as opposed to the 19m+ cap hit we would take with Mario on the roster. Still save around 1m or so because he has performance based escalators in the numbers I posted. After year 3 they save more by parting ways with him, but it's feasible after year 2. In reality keeping him on the roster after year 2 is probably a better solution, because you figure we have to pay someone else to replace him, so when you add it up we're tying up a lot of money at the LE spot. Hopefully we draft a DE early this year, so it's a cost controlled asset for the future.

I think that if you snip his contract off in 2014 or later, the Bills aren't liable for any of the salary cap hit that would have happened had he remained on the roster...or only a small fraction. That is why the article talks about the Bills being able to walk away after two years...the contract was set up that way. The way I understand it, the cap hit won't be anywhere close to what it would have been...I think that the signing bonus may be prorated and spanned out over the life of the contract (whether we already paid him the whole $19 million or not), so I think that will be a cap hit no matter what. That equals about $3.8 million a year...money we already spent. But we won't get these huge cap hits...not like the Bills normally spend all they can anyway.

We aren't going to take a $19.6 million cap hit in 2016 if we let Mario go before then.

I'm no expert, so somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

[BillsFever21]

this is all very comical....when the bills dont spend...ralph is cheap...when they do spend....its regrettable...cant have it both ways....I loved that the bills went out a snagged their guy....has it worked out?...not to this point...but where else were we going to get a top flight DE....

It's not that they spent money. We have all wanted them to spend money but it needs to be spent wisely. The Bills go years at a time without spending money and then when Ralph takes a season or two and decides to spend some they usually overspend on the wrong players. Then when it doesn't work out he gets pissed and will go another 5 years or so before spending anymore. He won't be around the next time it rolls around though.

Williams is decent but he's not a top flight elite DE. He's in the tier beneath that class and the Bills overpaid for him. He's only had two seasons in his 2nd and 3rd year in the league with double digit sacks. Outside of that he's around a 8 sack guy on average. That's not elite and there's a reason nobody else gave him that kind of money except for Buffalo. Especially with his injury history the past couple years leading up to it. They were desperate and their front office isn't very football savvy to begin with.

A top flight DE doesn't get switched to a LB by his team. He was good but far from elite. If you had an elite DE you would never change his position after playing it for 6 straight years and his entire life.

[JCBills]

Some of you sicken me.

[BillsFever21]

Some of you sicken me.

Why because some people doesn't think the Bills are so smart that they can't do any wrong? They sign all the right guys, draft all the right players in the right round, hire the right coaches, etc. If that was the case we wouldn't be the worse team in the league over the past 13 years.

Williams will be a decent player but he's not an elite DE who will take over games whether he's double teamed or not. He's not like Watt, Allen or JPP. He will give you 10 sacks or so in a good year and 6-8 sacks in a normal year. Not somebody who is worth 100 million. I said it then and will until proven otherwise.

I could care less cause it's not my money and it's about time Ralph spent something if it wouldn't hurt our chances of signing other players in the future. This isn't baseball where there isn't a salary cap and it doesn't matter and we don't have an owner like Jerry Jones or Daniel Snyder who will still go out and spend money if they can wiggle it around in their salary cap.

The Bills are willing to spend a certain amount depending on the year(s) and once they reach that their spending days are over with for a while. If Williams turns out to be a bust and we overpaid for him then all it will do is prevent us from signing other players or keeping our only decent ones that we draft.

[kingJofNYC]

I think that if you snip his contract off in 2014 or later, the Bills aren't liable for any of the salary cap hit that would have happened had he remained on the roster...or only a small fraction. That is why the article talks about the Bills being able to walk away after two years...the contract was set up that way. The way I understand it, the cap hit won't be anywhere close to what it would have been...I think that the signing bonus may be prorated and spanned out over the life of the contract (whether we already paid him the whole $19 million or not), so I think that will be a cap hit no matter what. That equals about $3.8 million a year...money we already spent. But we won't get these huge cap hits...not like the Bills normally spend all they can anyway.

We aren't going to take a $19.6 million cap hit in 2016 if we let Mario go before then.

I'm no expert, so somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

Once you cut someone the prorated bonuses gets put on the cap immediately, you can no longer spread it out, but you don't pay any salary. Again, even with the bonuses going against the cap it's less than 18m cap hit. You're bang on about 2016, at that point the remaining bonus money is so low that cutting him would save an 8 figure sum.


Some of you sicken me.

The Bills sicken us every year.

[feldspar]

Once you cut someone the prorated bonuses gets put on the cap immediately, you can no longer spread it out, but you don't pay any salary. Again, even with the bonuses going against the cap it's less than 18m cap hit. You're bang on about 2016, at that point the remaining bonus money is so low that cutting him would save an 8 figure sum.
.

I had an inkling this was the case.

But his other bonuses (besides the signing bonus) are all basically roster bonuses, which we shouldn't have to pay him if he's not on the roster, right?

So we'd only be liable for the remainder of the signing bonus in one lump sum (against the cap) if he is cut, traded, or otherwise let go. So, if the singing bonus is prorated at $3.8 million a year, and he has been in Buffalo for two years, that would mean that $7.6 million has already been accounted for against the cap. So that means that cutting him before the 2014 season would cost us $11.4 million against the cap that year, after which we are free and clear of any further obligations relating to him, right?

At any rate, it seems like there is still plenty of money on the table left for him to EARN, if it's possible to "earn" that much playing football. Hopefully, he's not thinking about the money too much. Also, hopefully he kicks in and starts to begin to live up to this contract. Dunno how much truth there is to his wrist injury or whatever, but it's possible that's slowing him down a bit.

[Mike]

um, there's a third option: spending money on a guy who actually performs.

Being cheap guarantees failure, but spending money doesn't guarantee success. It has to be spent wisely. There are a lot of people who make a lot of money working for the Bills who are supposed to make these decisions wisely, and they have failed us once again.

I give you an extreme example to illustrate OP's point.

If the Bills gave me a $500 Million Dollar Contract -which I would sign- That would mean that they are Both Spending a Lot of $$$ and Spending it very Regrettably.

[Mike]

Looking at the Details of the Contract, its basically a 2 year $40mil contract with options for each following year. $20mil per year is pretty much the going rate for a Top DE and the contract itself was very well planned. Bills can cut their losses pretty much anytime after 2yrs...

[BuffaloWingEater]

how would you have liked to address the DE situation in the offseason?

Giving kelsay another lucrative extension :D