Efing analytics

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

Fancy buzz word for cheap bastard.

[ServoBillieves]

... Ok.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

........

[Don't Panic]

Good to see a stress on analytics, but it can be like anything else... if you don't use it properly then you won't be making good decisions.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

Are you listen to the presser?
brandon keeps talking about analytics.. And that's Moneyball.... Gets wins but no championships

[BertSquirtgum]

This team can suck my ass.

[X-Era]

Are you listen to the presser?
brandon keeps talking about analytics.. And that's Moneyball.... Gets wins but no championshipsI'm not seeing it. Give me more details on why you're so against it.

[BertSquirtgum]

Will somebody tell me why that giganticly long faced hillbilly is still employed?

[X-Era]

Will somebody tell me why that giganticly long faced hillbilly is still employed?
A better roster. Good drafting. Keeping our own. Signing the biggest FA contract in Bills history.

He has made mistakes. But he's getting a pass for now. I think they see him as doing more good than bad.

[kingJofNYC]

As a pretty big baseball fan, and a Mets fan, people throw the moneyball term around much too loosely. Moneyball is market exploitation, it's arbitrage. Find what other teams are doing wrong and exploit it to your advantage, take advantage of mispriced assets. Overall, "moneyball" is a constant evaluation of your "system" and the way you run your ball club. The Red Sox and Yankees used moneyball, your market size doesn't matter, it's the way you evaluate your entire operation and the way you approach the market for players ie assets.

Brandon's an idiot, wouldn't take anything he says seriously, but moneyball would actually be a positive for this ball club. People in charge are too dumb to put a good system in place to exploit what other teams are missing. They wouldnt have extended Fitz, and passed up on QBs in the 3rd round (a cheap controllable asset), if they used moneyball/analytics.

Dude is just pitching the latest trend. Khan down in Jax is preaching the same thing, and he has his son doing it. They're probably more serious about it. Brandon's just jumping on the wagon.

[X-Era]

As a pretty big baseball fan, and a Mets fan, people throw the moneyball term around much too loosely. Moneyball is market exploitation, it's arbitrage. Find what other teams are doing wrong and exploit it to your advantage, take advantage of mispriced assets. Overall, "moneyball" is a constant evaluation of your "system" and the way you run your ball club. The Red Sox and Yankees used moneyball, your market size doesn't matter, it's the way you evaluate your entire operation and the way you approach the market for players ie assets.
Can you tell me more. I really know nothing about it.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

As a pretty big baseball fan, and a Mets fan, people throw the moneyball term around much too loosely. Moneyball is market exploitation, it's arbitrage. Find what other teams are doing wrong and exploit it to your advantage, take advantage of mispriced assets. Overall, "moneyball" is a constant evaluation of your "system" and the way you run your ball club. The Red Sox and Yankees used moneyball, your market size doesn't matter, it's the way you evaluate your entire operation and the way you approach the market for players ie assets.

Brandon's an idiot, wouldn't take anything he says seriously, but moneyball would actually be a positive for this ball club. People in charge are too dumb to put a good system in place to exploit what other teams are missing. They wouldnt have extended Fitz, and passed up on QBs in the 3rd round (a cheap controllable asset), if they used moneyball/analytics.

Dude is just pitching the latest trend. Khan down in Jax is preaching the same thing, and he has his son doing it. They're probably more serious about it. Brandon's just jumping on the wagon.
kj said it all

[X-Era]

Russ:

"How we put the cap together middle and long term"

Said absolutely it's Moneyball

[YardRat]

Read between the lines..."Levitre is gone."

[DraftBoy]

Analytics and Moneyball are not one in the same. Analytics are simply a part of Moneyball.

A Dept of Analytics will be very good for the football team.

[X-Era]

Analytics and Moneyball are not one in the same. Analytics are simply a part of Moneyball.

A Dept of Analytics will be very good for the football team.Sounds like a great potential piece for a great website... :whistle:

Personally, I have no idea what it is.

[YardRat]

Analytics and Moneyball are not one in the same. Analytics are simply a part of Moneyball.

A Dept of Analytics will be very good for the football team.

Brandon basically just said, when asked, Moneyball is exactly the concept he's referring to.

[DraftBoy]

Brandon basically just said, when asked, Moneyball is exactly the concept he's referring to.

Which may be the case, but this thread was about analytics.

- - - Updated - - -


Sounds like a great potential piece for a great website... :whistle:

Personally, I have no idea what it is.

Already there, wait till the combine.

[SpikedLemonade]

Analytics and Moneyball are not one in the same. Analytics are simply a part of Moneyball.

A Dept of Analytics will be very good for the football team.

Russ just said it will be part of Littman's department.

[Mr. Pink]

I understand how Moneyball applies to Baseball but I'm unsure how you would make it applicable to Football.

[Typ0]

analytics is a good thing. It means you are going to model what you are doing so you can properly reflect on it to make decisions in the future. In other words you aren't going to keep taking stabs in the dark you are going to analyze the production you are getting with the money you are spending and use the results in your future decision making. It has nothing to do with being cheap it's about leveraging what you are currently doing into organizational knowledge. The organization that does this best is the one that leads the competition because they are smarter.

[DraftBoy]

Russ just said it will be part of Littman's department.

Makes sense, Littman is a numbers based guy. Analytics has to do more with pure numbers than with game tape. Want those to remain separately.

[Typ0]

I don't even know what moneyball is. The bottom line is the world works on limited resources. The market leader is going to be the organization getting the most out of the $$$ they are spending.

[DraftBoy]

I understand how Moneyball applies to Baseball but I'm unsure how you would make it applicable to Football.

Id guess its based on the valuation angle.

[madness]

It's why Chip Kelly is successful. Like it or not, it will be spreading through the NFL like wildfire. The Patriots are very big on it so it obviously does win championships. We've only seen a taste in that regard too. Be prepared to start seeing teams go for two right off the bat, forego punting AND kicking on many occasions and busting out onside kicks on the oddest occasions.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/crows-nest/2012/11/12/3634782/chip-kelly-nfl-rumors-jaguars-news

[DraftBoy]

I don't even know what moneyball is. The bottom line is the world works on limited resources. The market leader is going to be the organization getting the most out of the $$$ they are spending.

Yes. Anything we can do to take our player evaluations to that next level would be a good idea.

[Mr. Pink]

It's why Chip Kelly is successful. Like it or not, it will be spreading through the NFL like wildfire. The Patriots are very big on it so it obviously does win championships. We've only seen a taste in that regard too. Be prepared to start seeing teams go for two right off the bat, forego punting AND kicking on many occasions and busting out onside kicks on the oddest occasions.

http://www.bigcatcountry.com/crows-nest/2012/11/12/3634782/chip-kelly-nfl-rumors-jaguars-news

It would be nice to get someone who wouldn't punt on 4th and 1's or punt from the oppositions 35.

[Don't Panic]

Analytics is using advanced statistics to make decisions. SAS down here in Raleigh have really pushed the field tremendously. Analytics is what controls your recommendations on Netflix, Pandora and Spotify. Its what Kenpom is doing to judge college basketball teams. Billy Beane used analytics to develop the moneyball philosophy. You could use it to determine a player's worth and what free agents were worth investing in in the same way... or determining what rounds certain positions should be drafted. Its great that they're using it, but they still have to use it appropriately. Its not going to run our organization for us, but it can help us make better decisions.

[BertSquirtgum]

A better roster. Good drafting. Keeping our own. Signing the biggest FA contract in Bills history.

He has made mistakes. But he's getting a pass for now. I think they see him as doing more good than bad.

No

[jimmifli]

Yes. Anything we can do to take our player evaluations to that next level would be a good idea.
I don't really think it's about player evaluations per se, there just isn't enough data points to make statistical conclusions about specific players. It's more about player value or positional value.

The typical process is to build a model. That basically means plugging a bunch of factors in and finding how much they correlate to what you want to predict. So they might take every play from every NFL game over the past three years and build a model to predict points allowed. They can then use that model to make predictions based on the factors used in building it, things like sacks, tackles for a loss, tackles made with 3 yards of the line of scrimmage, inside tackles, outside tackles, etc....

As an example:
Their model tells them that each additional sack will decrease points allowed by 2.5 points. The model also says that every linebacker tackle outside the hashmarks reduces points allowed by 1. They could then look at the cap hit and figure out whether adding a DE with 10 sacks is cheaper than adding a LB with 25 outside tackles. Since they will have the same predicted improvement on the defense, it would be better to pickup the cheaper player and spend the savings elsewhere.

That last sentence is why everyone is leery.

[RedEyE]

So rather then stabbing wildly in the dark they'll instead make educated guesses? Brilliant! Not sure why this needs to be defined with code words?

[coastal]

I am so glad I didn't listen to this nonsense.

its not that I have any problem with analytics or moneyball or Angelina Jolie's weird fetishses.

what I do have a problem with is Russ Brandon.

hes been CEO for how long... And these analytics aren't already in play? Working for us? Producing results?

what did his analytics tell him about spending $100 million on Mario "Fools Gold" Williams?

My analytics tell me Russ Brandon is a douchebag.

[DraftBoy]

I don't really think it's about player evaluations per se, there just isn't enough data points to make statistical conclusions about specific players. It's more about player value or positional value.

The typical process is to build a model. That basically means plugging a bunch of factors in and finding how much they correlate to what you want to predict. So they might take every play from every NFL game over the past three years and build a model to predict points allowed. They can then use that model to make predictions based on the factors used in building it, things like sacks, tackles for a loss, tackles made with 3 yards of the line of scrimmage, inside tackles, outside tackles, etc....

As an example:
Their model tells them that each additional sack will decrease points allowed by 2.5 points. The model also says that every linebacker tackle outside the hashmarks reduces points allowed by 1. They could then look at the cap hit and figure out whether adding a DE with 10 sacks is cheaper than adding a LB with 25 outside tackles. Since they will have the same predicted improvement on the defense, it would be better to pickup the cheaper player and spend the savings elsewhere.

That last sentence is why everyone is leery.

Im going to agree and disagree, and Ill explain why in a post Ill have on BBD very soon. I think the above example is only one way to utilize analytics but I think it will go beyond that, or I should say I know it does already.

[DraftBoy]

So rather then stabbing wildly in the dark they'll instead make educated guesses? Brilliant! Not sure why this needs to be defined with code words?

More like a more educated guess. They'll ideally be able to combine scouting evaluations with statistical breakdowns to determine player fit v cost, and come out with the best possible options.

[X-Era]

Im going to agree and disagree, and Ill explain why in a post Ill have on BBD very soon. I think the above example is only one way to utilize analytics but I think it will go beyond that, or I should say I know it does already.
Thank you sir. I'm impressed with how on the ball you are with putting up hot topics on that site. :clap:

[Mr. Pink]

I am so glad I didn't listen to this nonsense.

its not that I have any problem with analytics or moneyball or Angelina Jolie's weird fetishses.

what I do have a problem with is Russ Brandon.

hes been CEO for how long... And these analytics aren't already in play? Working for us? Producing results?

what did his analytics tell him about spending $100 million on Mario "Fools Gold" Williams?

My analytics tell me Russ Brandon is a douchebag.

Russ Brandon has and will continue to have ZERO influence over the football side of things.

Why people fail to understand this baffles me.

[RedEyE]

More like a more educated guess. They'll ideally be able to combine scouting evaluations with statistical breakdowns to determine player fit v cost, and come out with the best possible options.

Thats fine, but my point is: this isn't being done already? I guess I expect more from a billion dollar operation.

[jimmifli]

Im going to agree and disagree, and Ill explain why in a post Ill have on BBD very soon. I think the above example is only one way to utilize analytics but I think it will go beyond that, or I should say I know it does already.

I made no claim that this was the only use, just adding some specifics to the discussion. For player evaluations, it's possible based on some factors on others not so much. For instance, age, height, weight... could be used reliably to build a model predicting when players at specific positions will likely experience a decline. But it just wouldn't be possible to look at individual statistics and use them in a predictive model. Baseball has 162 games and most statistics measure individual performance. Football's stats are much more dependent on circumstance and it would take a 10 year career to equal a single baseball season.

Building models for the draft could also be helpful. Factors like age, year, school, division, height, weight etc... could help. But trying to use individual player stats would be difficult.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I think people are misconstruing these terms slightly. Draft boy said it upthread, analytics and moneyball are two separate but related concepts.

Analytics are statistical models of sports that look at the stats in the context in which they were earned. To take a very simple example, a halfback who gets you 5 yards on 3rd and 4 is much more valuable that a halfback who gets you 5 yards on 3rd and 10. Taken over the course of the season and career, you can make better decisions about who is the better player that will lead you to more success.

Moneyball applies those analytics to find the best value for your money, which is important for cash poor teams like Oakland. They concluded that the most important skill for a baseball player was not scoring, per se, but avoiding outs. So a guy who takes 8-10 pitches every plate appearance will be $ for $, more valuable to a team then a guy who smashes more home runs but strikes out quickly or on obviously bad pitches. And that's because, over the course of a long season, he'll burn out more starting pitchers and keep them competitive in more games than a boom or bust guy. But at the time, the big market teams grossly overvalued and overpaid the latter, so Oakland could find diamonds chasing the former. And they did, but in the compressed field of the playoffs then anything can happen. Also, since large market teams also have access to this information now, they've been able to use the same data and wash away Oakland's market advantage.

And that's really the limit of analytics in football - there aren't enough games to really make it take over the same way it has in baseball or basketball. Just think of things like the Tuck Rule fumble and Marlon McCree. If those two bad breaks had gone against Tom Brady and nothing else, he'd have one ring instead of 3 and our entire view of the Pats' organization would be vastly different. So at the end of the day, it's not soothsaying, it's just a different way of looking at the game.

And FWIW, Footballoutsiders.com is doing the best stuff on this out there.

[DraftBoy]

I made no claim that this was the only use, just adding some specifics to the discussion. For player evaluations, it's possible based on some factors on others not so much. For instance, age, height, weight... could be used reliably to build a model predicting when players at specific positions will likely experience a decline. But it just wouldn't be possible to look at individual statistics and use them in a predictive model. Baseball has 162 games and most statistics measure individual performance. Football's stats are much more dependent on circumstance and it would take a 10 year career to equal a single baseball season.

Building models for the draft could also be helpful. Factors like age, year, school, division, height, weight etc... could help. But trying to use individual player stats would be difficult.

I gotcha, we agree then.

[DraftBoy]

I think people are misconstruing these terms slightly. Draft boy said it upthread, analytics and moneyball are two separate but related concepts.

Analytics are statistical models of sports that look at the stats in the context in which they were earned. To take a very simple example, a halfback who gets you 5 yards on 3rd and 4 is much more valuable that a halfback who gets you 5 yards on 3rd and 10. Taken over the course of the season and career, you can make better decisions about who is the better player that will lead you to more success.

Moneyball applies those analytics to find the best value for your money, which is important for cash poor teams like Oakland. They concluded that the most important skill for a baseball player was not scoring, per se, but avoiding outs. So a guy who takes 8-10 pitches every plate appearance will be $ for $, more valuable to a team then a guy who smashes more home runs but strikes out quickly or on obviously bad pitches. And that's because, over the course of a long season, he'll burn out more starting pitchers and keep them competitive in more games than a boom or bust guy. But at the time, the big market teams grossly overvalued and overpaid the latter, so Oakland could find diamonds chasing the former. And they did, but in the compressed field of the playoffs then anything can happen. Also, since large market teams also have access to this information now, they've been able to use the same data and wash away Oakland's market advantage.

And that's really the limit of analytics in football - there aren't enough games to really make it take over the same way it has in baseball or basketball. Just think of things like the Tuck Rule fumble and Marlon McCree. If those two bad breaks had gone against Tom Brady and nothing else, he'd have one ring instead of 3 and our entire view of the Pats' organization would be vastly different. So at the end of the day, it's not soothsaying, it's just a different way of looking at the game.

And FWIW, Footballoutsiders.com is doing the best stuff on this out there.

Footballoutsiders.com is doing the money ball angle of it while I'd say PFF is doing the best measure of statistical player evaluation.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Footballoutsiders.com is doing the money ball angle of it while I'd say PFF is doing the best measure of statistical player evaluation.

I'm not a huge fan of PFF, but I still think they are working out the kinks.

[DraftBoy]

I'm not a huge fan of PFF, but I still think they are working out the kinks.

I have my own reservations but they have taken great steps forward recently.

[kingJofNYC]

Like I said earlier, moneyball isn't/wasn't just about using analytics/sabermetrics, it was about evaluating the entire system and how you can exploit it to your advantage. Everyone forgets about the pitchers Oakland had, how did they obtain those cheap controllable arms? Drafting. Now did they use advanced metrics to obtain these arms, definitely. In baseball you could overslot, which is pay a 10th rounder more money than 2nd rounder to persuade him to leave his college commitment and join your ballclub, teams started using that to their advantage, especially smaller market clubs that wanted cheap controllable assets. Then the big boys jumped in and now you can't overslot like you could in the past. Now you have the international free agency market as the main driver, though it's not as open as it once was.

That's moneyball, find a flaw in other people's thinking/approach and exploit it. Like others have said, stats are just one part of it, you still need smart people to actually steer the ship to find the next big thing/strategy.

[coastal]

Russ Brandon has and will continue to have ZERO influence over the football side of things.

Why people fail to understand this baffles me.
What r u talking about?

"it's your show now." ~ R.W.

[DraftBoy]

What r u talking about?

"it's your show now." ~ R.W.

Better question is what are you making up now?

[coastal]

Better question is what are you making up now?
I'm not making up an organizational 180 to the promised land... That's for sure.

[DraftBoy]

I'm not making up an organizational 180 to the promised land... That's for sure.

Who said that? So in some way yes you are making it up.

[coastal]

Who said that? So in some way yes you are making it up.
Yeah... I'm making it up.

look.. Brandon is selling the same ole crap dressed up to look different.

Analytics... Moneyball... Whatever!

hes been running this ship for all intents and purposes for more than a few years. This ALREADY is his team!

[DraftBoy]

Yeah... I'm making it up.

look.. Brandon is selling the same ole crap dressed up to look different.

Analytics... Moneyball... Whatever!

hes been running this ship for all intents and purposes for more than a few years. This ALREADY is his team!

All speculation with no basis or fact. You're trying to throw **** at a wall and call it fact.

[Typ0]

I am so glad I didn't listen to this nonsense.

its not that I have any problem with analytics or moneyball or Angelina Jolie's weird fetishses.

what I do have a problem with is Russ Brandon.

hes been CEO for how long... And these analytics aren't already in play? Working for us? Producing results?

what did his analytics tell him about spending $100 million on Mario "Fools Gold" Williams?

My analytics tell me Russ Brandon is a douchebag.

because no matter what the analytics were saying it was Wilsons gut that was driving the organization. We should be very excited about getting his meddling out of the mess that the bills are so people who are competent can sort things out and not be hampered ...

[BillsFever21]

Nothing is going to be changing with this team anytime soon. They kept Buddy Nix and now Russ Brandon is in total charge of the team? That is a complete joke. He should be nowhere near the football side of the operations.

Unless they get lucky and score a great coach and even luckier to find an elite franchise QB in the draft then it will be the same old 6 win seasons give or take with maybe a playoff season mixed in there but there won't be any sustained success without any luck. Brandon is totally incompetent to fun the football side of things.

[DraftBoy]

Nothing is going to be changing with this team anytime soon. They kept Buddy Nix and now Russ Brandon is in total charge of the team? That is a complete joke. He should be nowhere near the football side of the operations.

He's not, he said it himself he's simply evaluating the evaluators. He's not making football decisions.

[coastal]

All speculation with no basis or fact. You're trying to throw **** at a wall and call it fact.
He's been CEO for 3 years! Fact! He was defacto GM when Levy was here and then retired.

he isn't assuming control of this organization for the first time.

Nothing has changed in spite of this PR sham of a press conference... But keep on analyzing it like something significant happened today.

[DraftBoy]

He's been CEO for 3 years! Fact! He was defacto GM when Levy was here and then retired.

he isn't assuming control of this organization for the first time.

Nothing has changed in spite of this PR sham of a press conference... But keep on analyzing it like something significant happened today.

Yes he is. It's a well known fact that Ralph has had final authority. That is no longer true. You can't dispute that.

[DraftBoy]

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2013/01/01/a-closer-look-at-the-analytics/

From Chris Brown...

Touches on a little of what has been mentioned in this thread.

[BertSquirtgum]

This team sucks and today just proved it will continue to suck.

[coastal]

Yes he is. It's a well known fact that Ralph has had final authority. That is no longer true. You can't dispute that.
Ralph has a god day when he doesn't **** himself.

Russ has structured and run this organization for basically the last 5 years.

the organization is and has been totally dysfunctional!

Ralph stepping aside... That's already happened for Christ's sake.

[DraftBoy]

Ralph has a god day when he doesn't **** himself.

Russ has structured and run this organization for basically the last 5 years.

the organization is and has been totally dysfunctional!

Ralph stepping aside... That's already happened for Christ's sake.

Baseless speculation again.

[BillsFever21]

He's not, he said it himself he's simply evaluating the evaluators. He's not making football decisions.

He might not be deciding on the draft picks or anything like that but it's still his job to evaluate the GM, etc and determine if they should still be on the team or not. He should still be in marketing. Only Wilson would take a marketing person and turn them into a football CEO.

[DraftBoy]

He might not be deciding on the draft picks or anything like that but it's still his job to evaluate the GM, etc and determine if they should still be on the team or not. He should still be in marketing. Only Wilson would take a marketing person and turn them into a football CEO.

Most team presidents and CEO have business backgrounds...

He's going to be the Joe Banner role that Cleveland has. Many people have applauded this approach but only Bills fans can find a way to hate it.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

No, it's more about a total lack of faith in the Bills to actually make it work, rather than efing it up, which I fear they will do.

[Typ0]

This is what he was talking about when he said "tarnished". There is resentment. It's like a bad marriage LMAO.