Bill Polian: 'Moneyball does not work in the NFL'

[zone]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000121582/article/bill-polian-moneyball-does-not-work-in-the-nfl

[TrEd FTW]

Elderly man dislikes advanced analytics. Film at 11.

[Mski]

dont buy it... its the "good 'ol boy's club" mentality... guess what... alot of people told billy bean he was crazy for trying it too

[mikemac2001]

getting peyton manning in a draft works but that rarely happens.

[IAG]

I agree with Bill

[YardRat]

We can only hope Brandon proves him wrong, and not right.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

So Polian is not coming to Buffalo any time soon I guess?

[madness]

Good thing Russ never said anything about using Moneyball tactics.

[cookie G]

Elderly man dislikes advanced analytics. Film at 11.

6 time NFL executive of the year and life long team builder gives explanation of differences between football and baseball. Explains why statistical models are more difficult in football, due to dynamics involved.

Explanation flies over dumb person's head.

[TrEd FTW]

6 time NFL executive of the year and life long team builder gives explanation of differences between football and baseball. Explains why statistical models are more difficult in football, due to dynamics involved.

Explanation flies over dumb person's head.

That's harsh. Polian declined in Indy toward the end and gave his son more and more say, which was a big mistake. And the elderly tend to be less in tune with advanced metrics than younger people. Nix, for example, basically said he knew nothing of them.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

^^^ Agreed. Polian also is comparing to how analytics worked in baseball and then says essentially baseball is different than football. Yes, and so will the impact of analytics be: different. It doesn't necessarily equate to middle class undervalued players. Analytics <> Moneyball.

[TigerJ]

It is my understanding that analytics is utilized extensively in baseball and basketball. Not so much in football. Until some team makes extensive use of a version of analytics geared toward football, it's probably premature to say it doesn't work.

[cookie G]

That's harsh.

So was dismissing his explanation as the prattling of an old fart.



Polian declined in Indy toward the end and gave his son more and more say, which was a big mistake.

He did. And Chris Polian probably made extensive use of metrics in his player eval. (sorry, couldn't resist).



And the elderly tend to be less in tune with advanced metrics than younger people.

I'm sure some do. And he gave an explanation of why, from a financial standpoint, it is more difficult with the NFL salary cap than in baseball. Besides, if you did apply Moneyball to the Bills, a lot of people would hate it, because Mario wouldn't be around very long.

Statistical models have limitations in football evaluation because of the dynamics of the game. A players' responsibility on a given play can't always be shown in a statistical model. That is always the disclaimer given by the people who actually compile advanced football statistics.




Nix, for example, basically said he knew nothing of them.

Because he watches players on tape. Or watches them live.

And then changes the defense every other year.

[GingerP]

Please. What does Polian know about team-building?

[TrEd FTW]

So was dismissing his explanation as the prattling of an old fart.

You're right. I have a lot of respect for Polian, so it was foolish to dismiss his take as quickly as I did. It's just that as a baseball fan who's a big sabermetrics proponent, I've grown tired of seeing old scout types claim that they're ineffective. That's why I was so quick to jump at Polian, but I probably shouldn't have. Obviously he's one of the best executives in NFL history and what he says should count for something.


He did. And Chris Polian probably made extensive use of metrics in his player eval. (sorry, couldn't resist).

Maybe. Not everyone who makes use of these metrics will have success. The Bills will probably fall on their faces using them because they specialize in falling on their faces.

[BLeonard]

I can see both sides of this...

First, Bill Polian also said that the Bills should keep Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick. As much as I respect Polian for what he's done in the NFL, I can't agree with him here. Polian has also had the fortune of being able to get a "franchise" quarterback every place he went. In Buffalo, he had Jim Kelly. In Carolina, he had Kerry Collins. In Indianapolis, he had Peyton Manning. In every case, especially in Buffalo and Indy, we saw the on-field effects of the team when that "franchise" quarterback was no longer there. On top of that, it seems to work pretty well in New England, where damn near every position seems to be "plug and play."

On the other hand, Russ Brandon getting involed in anything on the "football" side of the business worries me. Buddy Nix being in charge of this, while admitting that he knows nothing about it, worries me also. Additionally, whether you want to call it "analytics" or "Moneyball" or whatever, the fact remains that the most popular team to use this sort of evaluation process is the Oakland Athletics and they have zero World Championships to show for it.

Now, personlly, I like "Moneyball" or "analytics." The thing is, it cannot be relied on in and of itself. I believe that you need to have a good balance of "analytics" and good old "smell their breath" scouting. Balancing those things aren't as easy as it seems. On top of all of that, you need a coaching staff, from the Head Coach on down, to understand how the system works and then they need to balance their coaching to the players in order to get the maximum output. Finally, and obviously most importantly, the players themselves need to be able to produce that maximum output in order for the system to succeed.

This is one of the reasons that Chip Kelly is at the top of my coaching "Wish List." He uses this sort of thinking already and having a coach who believes in it is a critical factor. If the Bills are able to land him, I would think that Kelly has contacts that can help head up this "analytical" department that Russ is wanting to build, while Buddy and Whaley can handle the "Smell their breath" side, although Whaley could very well be young enough to be a liason between the two sides, assuming he understands them both.

If I'm the Bills and especially if I get Chip Kelly as Head Coach, one guy I think would be a very good fit for the "analytics" department would be Jon Gruden. He does a lot of this already in his MNF gig and his salary for that is rumored to be around 4.3 million a year. If the Bills are serious about getting a analytics department going, they should be able to offer more than that in order to secure him. It could also be a "perfect balance" type job for a guy like Gruden as well... While he says he likes his MNF job, he always seems to be willing to listen when Head Coaching gigs pop up. This culd be a chance for him to get back in the NFL without having to jump in with both feet as he would as a Head Coach.

-Bill

[Ingtar33]

Elderly man dislikes advanced analytics. Film at 11.

don't feed the trolls.

[TrEd FTW]

don't feed the trolls.

Not a troll at all, but OK...

[The Jokeman]

Good thing Russ never said anything about using Moneyball tactics.

What do you think cash to cap means?

[Mr. Pink]

Old guard baseball people said Moneyball wouldn't work in Baseball either 10 years ago.

Doing things different is a threat to the establishment.

[Night Train]

You know what else doesn't work in the NFL ?

Chris Polian.

[coastal]

Polian continues to tell Ralph and the Bills to go **** themselves.

were a joke.

[trapezeus]

moneyball works in baseball because its such a one on one sport. pitcher vs batter. the stats end up telling a very specific story. and the strategy of looking at those stats and looking for consistency vs big play makers makes sense.

in football it's an 11 on 11 game. it is so much more dynamic. look at fitz's TD's. not bad. Look at his yards. not bad. but if you watch the game and see how inaccurate he is and when his incompletions happen and how momentum is effected, football is partially stat driven, but it has to be viewed in context of the games that you watch.

i'm very skeptical on moneyball tactics in football. chances are you'll delude yourself with combine junkies and miss on the guys who just consistently win. and that's hard to model and define.

if it works great, but i don't think it's a long term solution at all.