The Analytics of Fools Gold v Jabaal Sheard

[coastal]

Prior to this week... I had no idea what moneyball was outside of some Brad Pitt movie I never watched, however my general impression is its a means of targeting certain cost effective, yet productive players via the use of statistical analysis. The practice allows franchises on stricter budgets to compete with the big spenders.

As this offseason proved... Ralph isn't cheap so moneyball isn't really needed by us, because we are one of the big spenders. On the other hand... lets look of some analytics of Mario Williams in comparison to Jabaal Sheard, a player I targeted in the second round... the year we selected Aaron Williams.

The analysis conducted takes a look at two on field metrics (tackles and sacks) in relation to cost (this years salary + amortized sign-on bonus for this year).



Mario Williams - $5,900,000 (salary) + $3,166,666 (1 year worth of sign-on bonus) = $9,066,666
46 tackles = $197,101/tackle
10.5 sacks = $863,492/sack


Jabaal Sheard - $550,000 (salary) + $550,000 (1 year of sign-on bonus) = $1,100,000
54 tackles = $20,370/tackle
7 sacks = $157,142/sack


Welcome to the question portion of our program...


1.) based on the above metrics, which player has a greater on-field return on investment?
2.) do you think Mario's teammates are intrinsically aware of this dynamic and as such, there is some negative impact on the dynamics of the group or team?
3.) are these the kinds of analytics that Russ Brandon's new department are going to be conducting?
4.) does this analysis validate my "Fool's Gold" point?
5.) who wants to shampoo my crotch first?
6.) is Russ Brandon a glorified snake oil salesman?

[Bangarang]

You spend a lot of time making terrible posts. Your life must be absolutely miserable.

[Raptor]

Yea but you also wanted to draft a OG in the first round(a top 10 pick none the less) who looked terrible till his season ending injury and who would have cost us what looks like a shut down CB.

Care to analyze that?

[coastal]

Yea but you also wanted to draft a OG in the first round(a top 10 pick none the less) who looked terrible till his season ending injury and who would have cost us what looks like a shut down CB.

Care to analyze that?
Pittsburgh... The place where offensive linemen are grown... Said a rookie was struggling?

shocking.

but to answer your question.... I'll analyze it after Levitre walks.

now address the thread topic plz.

thank u.

[SquishDaFish]

Take alot of time thinking of Mario huh LOL. I think you have a little boy crush on him. You always have homo thoughts and comments and cant keep your thoughts off of him. lmao

- - - Updated - - -

Take alot of time thinking of Mario huh LOL. I think you have a little boy crush on him. You always have homo thoughts and comments and cant keep your thoughts off of him. lmao

[coastal]

Take alot of time thinking of Mario huh LOL. I think you have a little boy crush on him. You always have homo thoughts and comments and cant keep your thoughts off of him. lmao.
Does this mean you won't answer any of the questions either?

pitiful.

[Don't Panic]

Mario Williams was/is a proven commodity, your boy was not. When you buy a free agent, you're going off of proven performance at this level. When you draft a player, you're going off of potential. Teams have to make their call as to which way they want to go.

The fact that you have become single minded on this to the point where you can so narrowly look at the issue shows that it has less to do with making sense than it does with being right. You might as well just posted I hate Mario Williams and moved on with your life.

[coastal]

Mario Williams was/is a proven commodity, your boy was not. When you buy a free agent, you're going off of proven performance at this level. When you draft a player, you're going off of potential. Teams have to make their call as to which way they want to go.

The fact that you have become single minded on this to the point where you can so narrowly look at the issue shows that it has less to do with making sense than it does with being right. You might as well just posted I hate Mario Williams and moved on with your life.
You started addressing the thread topic... So points there.

but then you fell apart, just like the other mouth breathers.

Face it Bills fans... Signing Mario for the contract we did not only wasn't smart, but was a PRIMARY reason that we had the record we did last year. There's just no other way to analyze it.

And the continued throng of coastal haters will prove it in this thread by not answering the questions or addressing the topic at hand.

[Raptor]

Pittsburgh... The place where offensive linemen are grown... Said a rookie was struggling?

shocking.

but to answer your question.... I'll analyze it after Levitre walks.

now address the thread topic plz.

thank u.


The cant miss once and a decade OG needed time to grow? lmao

and your topic is asinine, why not compare him to the free agent you wanted in Mincy?

[SquishDaFish]

Does this mean you won't answer any of the questions either?

pitiful.

Why would anyone want to answer your ****ing questions?? Your a pitiful poster who only posts your LOVE for Mario homo

[coastal]

The cant miss once and a decade OG needed time to grow? lmao

and your topic is asinine, why not compare him to the free agent you wanted in Mincy?
Never would have had to even think about Mincy if we had drafted Sheard in the first place.

Look I have a long record between two sites of recommended personnel moves.. Some good. Some not. On the whole... I'd love to see my players on a team together.

As far as DeCastro... Time will tell. One thing Im already planning (assuming we aren't idiots and let Levitre walk) is using this years top 10 pick on a RT.

[coastal]

Why would anyone want to answer your ****ing questions?? Your a pitiful poster who only posts your LOVE for Mario homo
Baby Jesus doesn't like thread spamming.

now say you're sorry.

[Mr. Pink]

I love how you STILL compare a guy who was drafted in 2011 to a guy we signed in 2012 to try and make some correlation.

[SquishDaFish]

I think Coastal is mentally ill and fighting with the thoughts of coming out of the closet

[coastal]

I love how you STILL compare a guy who was drafted in 2011 to a guy we signed in 2012 to try and make some correlation.
So let me understand... the analytics here are invalid because one players was drafted a year prior to the other player being signed as a free agent?

Please explain that.. I'm not seeing how that makes the analysis invalid.

[coastal]

I think Coastal is mentally ill and fighting with the thoughts of coming out of the closetno ones asking you to respond in any of my threads... but here u r... again.

[X-Era]

Prior to this week... I had no idea what moneyball was outside of some Brad Pitt movie I never watched, however my general impression is its a means of targeting certain cost effective, yet productive players via the use of statistical analysis. The practice allows franchises on stricter budgets to compete with the big spenders.

As this offseason proved... Ralph isn't cheap so moneyball isn't really needed by us, because we are one of the big spenders. On the other hand... lets look of some analytics of Mario Williams in comparison to Jabaal Sheard, a player I targeted in the second round... the year we selected Aaron Williams.

The analysis conducted takes a look at two on field metrics (tackles and sacks) in relation to cost (this years salary + amortized sign-on bonus for this year).



Mario Williams - $5,900,000 (salary) + $3,166,666 (1 year worth of sign-on bonus) = $9,066,666
46 tackles = $197,101/tackle
10.5 sacks = $863,492/sack


Jabaal Sheard - $550,000 (salary) + $550,000 (1 year of sign-on bonus) = $1,100,000
54 tackles = $20,370/tackle
7 sacks = $157,142/sack


Welcome to the question portion of our program...


1.) based on the above metrics, which player has a greater on-field return on investment?
2.) do you think Mario's teammates are intrinsically aware of this dynamic and as such, there is some negative impact on the dynamics of the group or team?
3.) are these the kinds of analytics that Russ Brandon's new department are going to be conducting?
4.) does this analysis validate my "Fool's Gold" point?
5.) who wants to shampoo my crotch first?
6.) is Russ Brandon a glorified snake oil salesman?
This is a very interesting topic. However, it's far from as easy as you try to make it.

First we would have to determine what variables affect the data you are looking at. I can think of several right off the top of my head:

Quality of opponent
Quality of talent around both
Number of passing plays vs. running plays faced

And for sacks you could break it down farther

Type of moves used swim, rip, bull rush... effectiveness of each

And a major problem is that you're using a guy on his rookie contract vs. a guy who just landed his big contract. In the NFL, and especially with the new rookie salary cap, guys on their rookie contracts have the chance to be more successful vs. how much they cost. But once they have shown they can play they get paid. That's just how it works.

You can look at the statistics and claim free agent signees are overpaid... or you can look at rookie contracts and in some cases make an argument that they are way underpaid... And in both situations you may be right at times.

But the underpaid rookie demands a new contract early and the overpaid vet eventually takes a pay cut or is let go.

Mario is overpaid. But like I said I don't care. I like what it did for this team off the field and 10.5 sacks is something I like the looks of. He should have more sacks, but I'll take it for now.

[X-Era]

Attack the posts, not the posters... Thanks.

[SquishDaFish]

This is a very interesting topic. However, it's far from as easy as you try to make it.

First we would have to determine what variables affect the data you are looking at. I can think of several right off the top of my head:

Quality of opponent
Quality of talent around both
Number of passing plays vs. running plays faced

And for sacks you could break it down farther

Type of moves used swim, rip, bull rush... effectiveness of each

And a major problem is that you're using a guy on his rookie contract vs. a guy who just landed his big contract. In the NFL, and especially with the new rookie salary cap, guys on their rookie contracts have the chance to be more successful vs. how much they cost. But once they have shown they can play they get paid. That's just how it works.

You can look at the statistics and claim free agent signees are overpaid... or you can look at rookie contracts and in some cases make an argument that they are way underpaid... And in both situations you may be right at times.

But the underpaid rookie demands a new contract early and the overpaid vet eventually takes a pay cut or is let go.

Mario is overpaid. But like I said I don't care. I like what it did for this team off the field and 10.5 sacks is something I like the looks of. He should have more sacks, but I'll take it for now.

Awesome posting.

[cookie G]

Yea but you also wanted to draft a OG in the first round(a top 10 pick none the less) who looked terrible till his season ending injury and who would have cost us what looks like a shut down CB.

Care to analyze that?

What? the Bills would have missed out on wasting another high draft pick on a cornerback?

THE HORROR!!!!!!!!!

God I hope we take another one this year, because....that's how great defenses are made!!

[DesertFox24]

I think everyone is taking this analytics thing way to far. I believe it will be used as a tool but not in the way the oakland As used it.

They will study success of players drafted in what round, ie first round RBs are not that much better than RBs taken later. However first and second round OL and DL are usually that much better.

I also think it will be used for future projections of our roster ie if we sign Mario it will prevent us from signing player x y years from now.

[cookie G]

This is a very interesting topic. However, it's far from as easy as you try to make it.

First we would have to determine what variables affect the data you are looking at. I can think of several right off the top of my head:

Quality of opponent
Quality of talent around both
Number of passing plays vs. running plays faced

And for sacks you could break it down farther

Type of moves used swim, rip, bull rush... effectiveness of each

And a major problem is that you're using a guy on his rookie contract vs. a guy who just landed his big contract. In the NFL, and especially with the new rookie salary cap, guys on their rookie contracts have the chance to be more successful vs. how much they cost. But once they have shown they can play they get paid. That's just how it works.

You can look at the statistics and claim free agent signees are overpaid... or you can look at rookie contracts and in some cases make an argument that they are way underpaid... And in both situations you may be right at times.

But the underpaid rookie demands a new contract early and the overpaid vet eventually takes a pay cut or is let go.

Mario is overpaid. But like I said I don't care. I like what it did for this team off the field and 10.5 sacks is something I like the looks of. He should have more sacks, but I'll take it for now.

I think that's a good way to look at it.

Except I think, in the end, you jumped past all of your points of analysis and came up with..."10.5 sacks is something I like the looks of".

If people would actually apply your analysis, they might not like what they see with the guy.

So many won't.

Gotta go.

[coastal]

I also think it will be used for future projections of our roster ie if we sign Mario it will prevent us from signing player x y years from now.
This is one of my concern's about Mario's contract and I don't think anyone in the organization stopped to ask this very question.

Right now.. Levitre and Byrd are two screaming examples of the cost of Mario's contract.

to me it seems like we needed a pash rusher... and we went and paid ridiculous amounts of money to get one without consideration of any other future consequences.

i don't even think it was a decision that was sound based on past performance either.

[Novacane]

You started addressing the thread topic... So points there.

but then you fell apart, just like the other mouth breathers.

Face it Bills fans... Signing Mario for the contract we did not only wasn't smart, but was a PRIMARY reason that we had the record we did last year. There's just no other way to analyze it.

And the continued throng of coastal haters will prove it in this thread by not answering the questions or addressing the topic at hand.



Explain? I'm not gonna say he's the reason we won any games but how was he the primary reason we lost games?

[coastal]

I think that's a good way to look at it.

Except I think, in the end, you jumped past all of your points of analysis and came up with..."10.5 sacks is something I like the looks of".

If people would actually apply your analysis, they might not like what they see with the guy.

So many won't.

Gotta go.
Especially when 10.5 sacks came against RT scrubs.

[Night Train]

In the cyber world, we can all split the atom.

[coastal]

Explain? I'm not gonna say he's the reason we won any games but how was he the primary reason we lost games?
It's a good question and one where instead of looking at stats, I'm going to talk about people.

Mario came in and was immediately made the highest player in the organization. As such, I think there's a certain expectation for him to carry or lead this team on the field.

I watched most of every game, and focussed a lot of time watching this guy. He was single teamed more often than not and outside of a handful of moments, just another player on the field.

His teammates saw it all first hand... And Im sure didn't appreciate the lack of production, leadership and by some accounts... The effort or lack thereof.

its the kind of dynamic that's a team killer, because it eliminates accountability. Once accountability is gone in an organization, failure soon follows.

[SquishDaFish]

Especially when 10.5 sacks came against RT scrubs.

They came against OTHER NFL PLAYERS!! Got sometimes your hatred really blinds you huh?? Just about every pass rushers sacks come against lesser Tackles. The point is they play in the NFL so they are not on your scrub level SCRUB

[Raptor]

Never would have had to even think about Mincy if we had drafted Sheard in the first place.

oh so we are playing that game now? We wouldnt have needed either if 10 years ago we traded up for Peppers. Its seriously absurd to play "if we drafted"


Look I have a long record between two sites of recommended personnel moves.. Some good. Some not. On the whole... I'd love to see my players on a team together.

As far as DeCastro... Time will tell. One thing Im already planning (assuming we aren't idiots and let Levitre walk) is using this years top 10 pick on a RT.

If he's asking for 8-9 million the Bills are stupid not to let him walk

[Raptor]

Especially when 10.5 sacks came against RT scrubs.

Where do you think most these pass rushers sacks come from?

See when people say things like this it tells me that you dont watch the rest of the NFL or you are and you dont understand what you're watching

We went over the same thing with you and Mincy last year when you just looked at his stats and didnt bother to look where and when they came from. When you actually look at them and saw that the VAST majority of them came against and in the two games vs the worst team in the league it gave insight into just how absurd it was to think he could fix anyones pass rushing issues

[SquishDaFish]

Where do you think most these pass rushers sacks come from?

See when people say things like this it tells me that you dont watch the rest of the NFL or you are and you dont understand what you're watching

We went over the same thing with you and Mincy last year when you just looked at his stats and didnt bother to look where and when they came from. When you actually look at them and saw that the VAST majority of them came against and in the two games vs the worst team in the league it gave insight into just how absurd it was to think he could fix anyones pass rushing issues

Im tellin you he has pure hatred towards Mario either because he makes a TON more money than him OR He stole something from him.

[coastal]

Where do you think most these pass rushers sacks come from?

See when people say things like this it tells me that you dont watch the rest of the NFL or you are and you dont understand what you're watching

We went over the same thing with you and Mincy last year when you just looked at his stats and didnt bother to look where and when they came from. When you actually look at them and saw that the VAST majority of them came against and in the two games vs the worst team in the league it gave insight into just how absurd it was to think he could fix anyones pass rushing issues
Oh... So when everyone was telling me last offseason that Mincy's sacks came against scrubs... The argument worked then but now that its about Mario... It falls into "that happens with all good DE's" category?

i can't keep up with you guys.

[coastal]

Im tellin you he has pure hatred towards Mario either because he makes a TON more money than him OR He stole something from him.
What exactly are you in this thread for?

[X-Era]

Especially when 10.5 sacks came against RT scrubs.
Also a valid point.

This should be part of the chart that analyzes the player. To do that you need charts for all the RT's... Really all the players.

For RT's you might need numbers on sacks allowed, hurries allowed, missed blocks, all kinds of things. When scouting them you look at leverage, footwork, body positioning, ability to kick slide... How do you put numbers (quantify) on that?

But it's a good point and something that could be used to analyze Williams through analytics.

In the end, we as fans, draw mental conclusions like this guy sucks etc... It's really the same as what Nix said about analytics... gut feel. Using the tool may or may not show that Nix, you, or I are right.

My point is to do it right it must include full charts on all players and teams. And many of the attributes you need to look at aren't really even quantified yet.

An example is QB... How do you put a number to decision making? or mental markup? Is there a way to put a number on a QB throwing to the wrong WR? Of not seeing an open WR? Or taking one second to long to decide to throw? As fans we can watch it and see it and one person may see one thing another may see something else.

I have no doubt advanced statistics used to quantify a players value is possible. But it's not totally clear how that can be done yet.

I saw a seminar by Douglas Hubbard and it was really interesting. Watch the video at the bottom if nothing else:

http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1357401214&sr=8-1&keywords=how+to+measure+everything

(http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1357401214&sr=8-1&keywords=how+to+measure+everything)

[DraftBoy]

That's not analytics...that's simply saying Player A made X dollars per play and Player B made Y. You basically pulled a Darren Rovell.

[coastal]

That's not analytics...that's simply saying Player A made X dollars per play and Player B made Y. You basically pulled a Darren Rovell.
You're smarter than this.

[TedMock]

I gave a very brief overview of some of the ways analytics are used in the "hocus pocus" thread. The basic stats given here are not enough to base a reasonable conclusion. Not saying i agree or disagree. There's just not enough here. Plus, financial worth and on field performane arent measured the same.

[coastal]

Also a valid point.

This should be part of the chart that analyzes the player. To do that you need charts for all the RT's... Really all the players.

For RT's you might need numbers on sacks allowed, hurries allowed, missed blocks, all kinds of things. When scouting them you look at leverage, footwork, body positioning, ability to kick slide... How do you put numbers (quantify) on that?

But it's a good point and something that could be used to analyze Williams through analytics.

In the end, we as fans, draw mental conclusions like this guy sucks etc... It's really the same as what Nix said about analytics... gut feel. Using the tool may or may not show that Nix, you, or I are right.

My point is to do it right it must include full charts on all players and teams. And many of the attributes you need to look at aren't really even quantified yet.

An example is QB... How do you put a number to decision making? or mental markup? Is there a way to put a number on a QB throwing to the wrong WR? Of not seeing an open WR? Or taking one second to long to decide to throw? As fans we can watch it and see it and one person may see one thing another may see something else.

I have no doubt advanced statistics used to quantify a players value is possible. But it's not totally clear how that can be done yet.

I saw a seminar by Douglas Hubbard and it was really interesting. Watch the video at the bottom if nothing else:

http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1357401214&sr=8-1&keywords=how+to+measure+everything

(http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/0470539399/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1357401214&sr=8-1&keywords=how+to+measure+everything)
Totally agree... This is where analytics can really help in the decision making process. Go back for a second and look at the original "Fools Gold" thread.

on a basic level... Analytics was used to back up the point of the thread, and if you notice.. very few posters actually took the time to respond to the meat of that point. The same dynamic is happening here.

Something I will look into.. How many games did Mario get a sack in and who was the sack against. I don't remember one sack from the weak side, so unless I can find video on each, need to look at who the opponents RT was for those sacks and metrics associated with them.

to be fair, the same thing can be done with Jabaal.

[coastal]

I gave a very brief overview of some of the ways analytics are used in the "hocus pocus" thread. The basic stats given here are not enough to base a reasonable conclusion. Not saying i agree or disagree. There's just not enough here. Plus, financial worth and on field performane arent measured the same.
Thanks and I agree that a lot more info is needed.

To your point about financial worth, this is where analytics helps... but it takes someone who understands how to manage people to utilize those analytics in a way that takes into consideration the "human component".

ill call this the "Madden principle". I'm not referring to the coach. I'm referring to the video game.

A larger point then becomes, putting together a successful team goes beyond plugging in someone with the correct measureables.

[DraftBoy]

You're smarter than this.

I know and so are you, which is why Im confused about why you are calling something what it isn't.

[coastal]

I know and so are you, which is why Im confused about why you are calling something what it isn't.
Care to elaborate?

[DraftBoy]

Care to elaborate?

I thought I already did, this is not analytics. Its simply a value measurement based on contract.

[coastal]

I thought I already did, this is not analytics. Its simply a value measurement based on contract.
Just because its basic doesn't mean it's not analytics.

also just because its basic, doesn't mean there isn't an entirely viable conclusion to be drawn here.

It neve ceases to surprise me when people are willing to be intellectually dishonest to prove another person wrong.

[Raptor]

Oh... So when everyone was telling me last offseason that Mincy's sacks came against scrubs... The argument worked then but now that its about Mario... It falls into "that happens with all good DE's" category?

i can't keep up with you guys.


Name me all the all pro OT's Aldon Smith beat for Sacks

Mario gets double digit sacks and to draw double teams, Mincy does none of that

Anything else you want me to teach you about this game feel free to ask

[coastal]

Mario draw(s) double teams:rofl:

[DraftBoy]

Just because its basic doesn't mean it's not analytics.

also just because its basic, doesn't mean there isn't an entirely viable conclusion to be drawn here.

It neve ceases to surprise me when people are willing to be intellectually dishonest to prove another person wrong.

What never surprises me is how people fail to understand the argument. Where did I disagree with the conclusion drawn? I find your methodology flawed. Yet you want to talk about intellectual dishonesty?

[coastal]

What never surprises me is how people fail to understand the argument. Where did I disagree with the conclusion drawn? I find your methodology flawed. Yet you want to talk about intellectual dishonesty?
You don't disagree with my conclusions but you want to criticize the methodology that led to the conclusion because it was too basic?

You're not only the tinfoil hat club president...

[kingJofNYC]

Name me all the all pro OT's Aldon Smith beat for Sacks

Mario gets double digit sacks and to draw double teams, Mincy does none of that

Anything else you want me to teach you about this game feel free to ask

You're delusional if you think teams constantly doubled Mario this year. Had an ok season because he padded his numbers against scrubs, there was no reason to double anyone on our DL except for Kyle on early in the season, and even he faded down the stretch.

[Mouldsie]

We needed a pass rusher and got the best one in FAcy in a draft that wasnt stacked at the position. Next.

[coastal]

We needed a pass rusher and got the best one in FAcy in a draft that wasnt stacked at the position. Next.
The Madden principle.

btw... I owe u a hundo.

[DraftBoy]

You don't disagree with my conclusions but you want to criticize the methodology that led to the conclusion because it was too basic?

You're not only the tinfoil hat club president...

Again incorrect. Also you're smart enough to know that if the methodology is flawed what does that normally say about the conclusion?

Tinfoil hat would imply some sort of conspiracy theory argument which I'm not making so that is also incorrect.

[Wolffman]

Sheard once threw a guy through a window after the guy made a 'yo momma' joke.

True story.

Also he's a very good player and I wish the Bills would have grabbed him.

[SquishDaFish]

We needed a pass rusher and got the best one in FAcy in a draft that wasnt stacked at the position. Next.

Give the 9er fan your paypal addy so he can pay you what he owes you. I would add interest if I were you LOL

[Mr. Pink]

So let me understand... the analytics here are invalid because one players was drafted a year prior to the other player being signed as a free agent?

Please explain that.. I'm not seeing how that makes the analysis invalid.

The team went for a DE in 2012...Sheard was not available in 2012.

You can't get a guy who isn't available for you to acquire.

[Joe Fo Sho]

The team went for a DE in 2012...Sheard was not available in 2012.

You can't get a guy who isn't available for you to acquire.

Coastal is playing the time machine game and it seems the Bills are the only team to wish they had one.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Again incorrect. Also you're smart enough to know that if the methodology is flawed what does that normally say about the conclusion?

Tinfoil hat would imply some sort of conspiracy theory argument which I'm not making so that is also incorrect.

Ha, even when you agree with his point (maybe not how he got there) he still tries to demean you...nice.

[Mouldsie]

The Madden principle.

btw... I owe u a hundo.
You're an honorable man. I'll PM you about it

[IlluminatusUIUC]

So wait, you're telling me that a guy on a rookie-capped contract is a better dollar for dollar value than the highest priced defensive free agent in history?

GET OUTTA TOWN!

This is not exactly blockbuster news or hard-hitting analysis.

[Mouldsie]

Give the 9er fan your paypal addy so he can pay you what he owes you. I would add interest if I were you LOL
coastal likes to threaten to leave but he never will, he does it to try and get Ralph's attention and create change. Like someone might threaten in a marriage lol

and he's one of the few guys who is a man of his word, hate his style or love it, the man has never lied to me and is very generous. He basically footed the bill for the android app to another board so we could all enjoy Bills talk on our phones. Too bad we're both banned now....

[Mouldsie]

The team went for a DE in 2012...Sheard was not available in 2012.

You can't get a guy who isn't available for you to acquire.
This is one of the 1st good points you've ever made. :D

[Mr. Pink]

This is one of the 1st good points you've ever made. :D

I do it from time to time, pay more attention! :D

[Mr. Pink]

In fact I'll make another good point...

In 2011, when we could have drafted Sheard theoretically...we ran a 3-4. Sheard is a 4-3 DE.

So we should have drafted a guy who didn't even fit our defensive scheme at the time so we could have skipped on signing Mario the next year!

[coastal]

Sheard once threw a guy through a window after the guy made a 'yo momma' joke.

True story.

Also he's a very good player and I wish the Bills would have grabbed him.bet he didn't sprain his wrist when he did it either.

[Mouldsie]

How did Wannstedt miss him?

[coastal]

In fact I'll make another good point...

In 2011, when we could have drafted Sheard theoretically...we ran a 3-4. Sheard is a 4-3 DE.

So we should have drafted a guy who didn't even fit our defensive scheme at the time so we could have skipped on signing Mario the next year!
First... Not understanding your point at all about the years. My point is that had we taken Jabaal when he was available... Like I said to... We wouldn't have been shopping for Mario or anyone else for that matter because we wouldn't have the hole. But hey... At least was got another another CB!

as far as 3-4 v 4-3... go find the stats.... We ran both almost equally that year.

[coastal]

How did Wannstedt miss him?
No idea... That's why I thought it was a no-brainer pick.

tells me that Wanny had almost no say and the CB was a Nix pick.

[X-Era]

First... Not understanding your point at all about the years. My point is that had we taken Jabaal when he was available... Like I said to... We wouldn't have been shopping for Mario or anyone else for that matter because we wouldn't have the hole. But hey... At least was got another another CB!

as far as 3-4 v 4-3... go find the stats.... We ran both almost equally that year.
That's not the point.

The point is we may or may not be getting the most bang for our buck. But we really don't know considering we don't know what profit was gained by signing Mario.

As far as whether we should have taken a CB, QB, DE or whatever that's not the point.

[coastal]

That's not the point.

The point is we may or may not be getting the most bang for our buck. But we really don't know considering we don't know what profit was gained by signing Mario.

As far as whether we should have taken a CB, QB, DE or whatever that's not the point.
Are you kidding me?

its entirely the point! Are you watching these teams play today?

I'm not. I spent the day drilling holes in walls and running cords so my kids flat screen doesn't have any cords hanging down the walls. Pretty cool looking actually.

why am I not watching?

cuz the Bills aren't playing. That's why! Because this ****ed up organization can't get their analytics right on anything.

and guess what? They got em wrong on their $100 million man too!

[X-Era]

Are you kidding me?

its entirely the point! Are you watching these teams play today?

I'm not. I spent the day drilling holes in walls and running cords so my kids flat screen doesn't have any cords hanging down the walls. Pretty cool looking actually.

why am I not watching?

cuz the Bills aren't playing. That's why! Because this ****ed up organization can't get their analytics right on anything.

and guess what? They got em wrong on their $100 million man too!Larry Fitzgerald. We currently don't gather enough information to determine what an NFL players value truly is.

If you look at his stats this year you would not see one of the best WR's in the game. Yet there is no statistic being kept that relates his production to the caliber of his QB.

You took a one year snap shot of Mario. Do the same for Larry Fitzgerald and tell me whether he's a good value or not using your version of analytics.

There is not adequate information available to draw the types of conclusions you're drawing in many cases. Every aspect of what makes a player good must be charted, then inter-dependencies between positions and teams must be evaluated. Your own argument about Mario and scrubs RT's makes the point, who's throwing to WR's does, what type of run game you plug your RB into... Do you think Spiller would have the same stats if we threw 70% of the time or if we ran a power run attack instead of a spread?

There are a multitude of variable that must be quantified to make the sort of analysis that analytics could produce. I'm not saying we shouldn't do it. I'm saying we, as fans, don't have the data.

Any analysis is only as good as your ability to measure what you're trying to analyze. And that is the ultimate point.

[POTLAND PSILBYLO]

1.) based on the above metrics, which player has a greater on-field return on investment?
2.) do you think Mario's teammates are intrinsically aware of this dynamic and as such, there is some negative impact on the dynamics of the group or team?
3.) are these the kinds of analytics that Russ Brandon's new department are going to be conducting?
4.) does this analysis validate my "Fool's Gold" point?
5.) who wants to shampoo my crotch first?
6.) is Russ Brandon a glorified snake oil salesman?

1) - analytics as used in moneyball is in context of winning games. Tackles (more or less) don't win a game.
2) - I hope they don't care, because if they did, they're stupid.
3) - I hope not.
4) - no.
5) - I do.
6) - no.

[D2K]

So let me understand... the analytics here are invalid because one players was drafted a year prior to the other player being signed as a free agent?

Please explain that.. I'm not seeing how that makes the analysis invalid.

I dont mean to pile on dude, because I dont know you from anyone else, but the analytics are invalid because you cant compare a player on his 2nd contract to a player who is still on their rookie deal.

Its a horrible comparison.

[Raptor]

You're delusional if you think teams constantly doubled Mario this year. Had an ok season because he padded his numbers against scrubs, there was no reason to double anyone on our DL except for Kyle on early in the season, and even he faded down the stretch.


:rofl:


Helps if you watch the games kids

He got doubled and chipped on a regular basis

[Mski]

Prior to this week... I had no idea what moneyball was outside of some Brad Pitt movie I never watched, however my general impression is its a means of targeting certain cost effective, yet productive players via the use of statistical analysis. The practice allows franchises on stricter budgets to compete with the big spenders.

As this offseason proved... Ralph isn't cheap so moneyball isn't really needed by us, because we are one of the big spenders. On the other hand... lets look of some analytics of Mario Williams in comparison to Jabaal Sheard, a player I targeted in the second round... the year we selected Aaron Williams.

The analysis conducted takes a look at two on field metrics (tackles and sacks) in relation to cost (this years salary + amortized sign-on bonus for this year).



Mario Williams - $5,900,000 (salary) + $3,166,666 (1 year worth of sign-on bonus) = $9,066,666
46 tackles = $197,101/tackle
10.5 sacks = $863,492/sack


Jabaal Sheard - $550,000 (salary) + $550,000 (1 year of sign-on bonus) = $1,100,000
54 tackles = $20,370/tackle
7 sacks = $157,142/sack


Welcome to the question portion of our program...


1.) based on the above metrics, which player has a greater on-field return on investment?
2.) do you think Mario's teammates are intrinsically aware of this dynamic and as such, there is some negative impact on the dynamics of the group or team?
3.) are these the kinds of analytics that Russ Brandon's new department are going to be conducting?
4.) does this analysis validate my "Fool's Gold" point?
5.) who wants to shampoo my crotch first?
6.) is Russ Brandon a glorified snake oil salesman?try reading the book... it actually has very little to do with money, its all about advanced stats in baseball, how well does someone hit against righties v lefties, whats the potential number of righties we'll face this year v the potential # righties, how well does that project out for the prospective player, where does he hit most of his fly balls, does our home field give him an advantage or disadvantage.

obviously none of that correlates to football, as there is alot more to player evaluations than just pure stats, and there are no demensional deifferences in playing fields to consider. but the very last thing "moneyball" takes into account is actually the money

[delectrolux]

Honest question Coastal– Do you think that Mario William's presence on the team, and the (recently unprecedented) precedent it set of the Bills being willing to go out and spend big on free agents will be beneficial in recruiting coaches?

[coastal]

Honest question Coastal– Do you think that Mario William's presence on the team, and the (recently unprecedented) precedent it set of the Bills being willing to go out and spend big on free agents will be beneficial in recruiting coaches?
You mean like coaches that work a stones throw down 90 and led a b-list college team to a .500 record?

those kinds?

um... Yeah.

[ServoBillieves]

try reading the book... it actually has very little to do with money, its all about advanced stats in baseball, how well does someone hit against righties v lefties, whats the potential number of righties we'll face this year v the potential # righties, how well does that project out for the prospective player, where does he hit most of his fly balls, does our home field give him an advantage or disadvantage.

obviously none of that correlates to football, as there is alot more to player evaluations than just pure stats, and there are no demensional deifferences in playing fields to consider. but the very last thing "moneyball" takes into account is actually the money

This should have died 3 days ago like a troll under a bridge. Why you found this appropriate or worthwhile I will never know. I knew at the age of 8 that I had about a split second advantage against a lefty than a right handed pitcher.

Please don't feed.

[DBrown77]

There is a lot more to evaluate on a player than sacks and tackles. This comparison means nothing.

[delectrolux]

You mean like coaches that work a stones throw down 90 and led a b-list college team to a .500 record?

those kinds?

um... Yeah.

The kind of coach that brought a garbage program back to respectability. The guy that Ian Rapoport reported that 'two sources within the Cleveland Browns said it's "neck and neck" between Doug Marrone and Chip Kelly as their choice for head coach'. And La Canfora said "has now lined up interviews with the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Diego Chargers within the next week." And the Bills hired him. Must be the stellar QB situation. Or the stable ownership situation. Or the long tradition of winning.

Or maybe it was the talent that is on the team currently, including the player with the most sacks in a single Bills season since 2006.

[trapezeus]

the moneyball analytics are a little deeper than what was presented here in the original post.

the analytics should go into what do the actual numbers mean. it's about looking at the stats in a different way. looking at Mario as perhaps a guy with lower stats because it improves people around them.

i don't know if coastal meant his post to be tongue in cheek, but his analysis is the old way of looking at things according to moneyball.

personally, i dont even think moneyball ideas will work at football because i don't think people know the data points all that well to find correlations to success factors in football. i think you can eventually get there, but i think the modelling isn't where it needs to be.

[delectrolux]

the moneyball analytics are a little deeper than what was presented here in the original post.

the analytics should go into what do the actual numbers mean. it's about looking at the stats in a different way. looking at Mario as perhaps a guy with lower stats because it improves people around them.

i don't know if coastal meant his post to be tongue in cheek, but his analysis is the old way of looking at things according to moneyball.

personally, i dont even think moneyball ideas will work at football because i don't think people know the data points all that well to find correlations to success factors in football. i think you can eventually get there, but i think the modelling isn't where it needs to be.

Coastal just hates the Mario Williams signing and he refuses to see any good it might have done the organization, whether it be on or off the field.

[coastal]

Coastal just hates the Mario Williams signing and he refuses to see any good it might have done the organization, whether it be on or off the field.
Yes.. I hate the Mario signing.

And when someone presents a cogent argument on how it benefits the organization, I'll acknowledge it.

And no... It makes us relevant or ESPN is talking about us aren't cogent arguments.

[CleveSteve]

This thread is hilarious to me (a Browns fan.)

Jabaal Sheard would have been an awful 3-4 OLB. He is a pretty good LDE in a 4-3 who has issues overrunning upfield on running plays but is improving. He plays with a great motor but is still out of position too much v the run.

Mario Williams was by far the best 4-3 DE available last year in FA (or the draft for that matter -- remember how many people on here wanted to draft Quinton Coples or Chandler Jones {who ended up with a whopping 6 sacks and 24 tackles as a starter of a team that played with a lead all season}?), and the Giants have shown you can't have too many of them. It was the right signing and pretty impressive that they were able to pull it off.

Browns fans would have loved the move, but our GM Heckert wasn't going to try to get him ("There's no 'Reggie White' in this FA.")

*edit* Bottom line is, everything looks like crap when you lose, and looks great when you win. I'm still jealous that you guys got Cordy Glenn after we drafted Mitchell Schwartz, who was pretty decent himself.

[SquishDaFish]

Coastal just hates the Mario Williams signing and he refuses to see any good it might have done the organization, whether it be on or off the field.

Ding! Ding! DING! We have a winner folks. Exactly what Ive been saying. Mario stole something from him OR Coastal is just jealous he got all that cash LOL

[SquishDaFish]

This thread is hilarious to me (a Browns fan.)

Jabaal Sheard would have been an awful 3-4 OLB. He is a pretty good LDE in a 4-3 who has issues overrunning upfield on running plays but is improving. He plays with a great motor but is still out of position too much v the run.

Mario Williams was by far the best 4-3 DE available last year in FA (or the draft for that matter -- remember how many people on here wanted to draft Quinton Coples or Chandler Jones {who ended up with a whopping 6 sacks and 24 tackles as a starter of a team that played with a lead all season}?), and the Giants have shown you can't have too many of them. It was the right signing and pretty impressive that they were able to pull it off.

Browns fans would have loved the move, but our GM Heckert wasn't going to try to get him ("There's no 'Reggie White' in this FA.")

*edit* Bottom line is, everything looks like crap when you lose, and looks great when you win. I'm still jealous that you guys got Cordy Glenn after we drafted Mitchell Schwartz, who was pretty decent himself.

Dont throw facts at this clown. He will just keep going on and on and on and on and on and on with his hatred.

[coastal]

This thread is hilarious to me (a Browns fan.)

Jabaal Sheard would have been an awful 3-4 OLB. He is a pretty good LDE in a 4-3 who has issues overrunning upfield on running plays but is improving. He plays with a great motor but is still out of position too much v the run.

Mario Williams was by far the best 4-3 DE available last year in FA (or the draft for that matter -- remember how many people on here wanted to draft Quinton Coples or Chandler Jones {who ended up with a whopping 6 sacks and 24 tackles as a starter of a team that played with a lead all season}?), and the Giants have shown you can't have too many of them. It was the right signing and pretty impressive that they were able to pull it off.

Browns fans would have loved the move, but our GM Heckert wasn't going to try to get him ("There's no 'Reggie White' in this FA.")

*edit* Bottom line is, everything looks like crap when you lose, and looks great when you win. I'm still jealous that you guys got Cordy Glenn after we drafted Mitchell Schwartz, who was pretty decent himself.
Translation: Cleveland has fans that breath through their mouths too.

[coastal]

Dont throw facts at this clown. He will just keep going on and on and on and on and on and on with his hatred.
U literally r the only one who keeps trying to make this about ME.

why is that?

[Joe Fo Sho]

Translation: Cleveland has fans that breath through their mouths too.

So someone comes at you with an intelligent post. He includes statistics and shows that he knows something about the guy you're talking about. Then you respond by calling him a mouth breather? Nice.

[CleveSteve]

Translation: Cleveland has fans that breath through their mouths too.
Lol :) this guy is too funny.

[coastal]

So someone comes at you with an intelligent post. He includes statistics and shows that he knows something about the guy you're talking about. Then you respond by calling him a mouth breather? Nice.
He came at with me stats about two other players go have nothing to do with this thread. The rest was opinion.

btw... Some Bills fans would still take T'eo at 8... even after last nights performance.

what does that say to u?

- - - Updated - - -


Lol :) this guy is too funny.
So... Would rather have Jabaal or Mario...

[ICRockets]

This isn't how Moneyball works. The idea, as it pertains to football, is about sabermetrics. New statistics that try to generate a truer sense of who's performing well and who isn't. It's not about dollars per sack.

[cookie G]

This thread is hilarious to me (a Browns fan.)

Jabaal Sheard would have been an awful 3-4 OLB. He is a pretty good LDE in a 4-3 who has issues overrunning upfield on running plays but is improving. He plays with a great motor but is still out of position too much v the run.

Mario Williams was by far the best 4-3 DE available last year in FA (or the draft for that matter -- remember how many people on here wanted to draft Quinton Coples or Chandler Jones {who ended up with a whopping 6 sacks and 24 tackles as a starter of a team that played with a lead all season}?), and the Giants have shown you can't have too many of them. It was the right signing and pretty impressive that they were able to pull it off.

Browns fans would have loved the move, but our GM Heckert wasn't going to try to get him ("There's no 'Reggie White' in this FA.")

*edit* Bottom line is, everything looks like crap when you lose, and looks great when you win. I'm still jealous that you guys got Cordy Glenn after we drafted Mitchell Schwartz, who was pretty decent himself.


Well...Mario has issues of overrrunning upfield against the run..and got worse as the year went on. He actually looked good in preseason..then the regular season games started.

More than 1/2 of his sacks this year came against the likes of Bobby Massie in AZ, or Winston Justice, or Barry Richardson (cue SquishDaFish with his war cry "But they're NFL players, dammit!!!!"). Against the Sebastian Vollmers or the Anthony Davis', the beast was silent. Kinda like the Irish D last night, what looks good against the Big Ten doesn't look quite so good against the Alabama's of the world.

In terms of run defense...he hasn't improved it at all over what we had (Chris Kelsay), and that's not good.

In terms of whether the D improved at all...some can make the argument that Chandler Jones improved NE's pitiful defense some. On the other hand, you have a hard time arguing that Mario improved the Bills defense at all.

If spending $100 million on a guy who gets his stats against bad offenses is good, well, I guess he was a wise investment.

If you're bringing someone in to help your D slow down the best O's in the league...not so much.

[Joe Fo Sho]

He came at with me stats about two other players go have nothing to do with this thread. The rest was opinion.

No, I totally get it. You showed him.

[coastal]

No, I totally get it. You showed him.
No u don't get it. That's the problem.

[Mr. Pink]

As of today Mario is a better player than Sheard.

Mario has likely his his ceiling and Sheard probably hasn't so 3 years from now the jury is out on who is better.

I will likely go with Mario will always be better than Sheard though. The gap won't be large but the money difference between the two will be large - threw in that statement for Coastal. LOL

[jimmifli]

Prior to this week... I had no idea what moneyball was outside of some Brad Pitt movie I never watched, however my general impression is its a means of targeting certain cost effective, yet productive players via the use of statistical analysis. The practice allows franchises on stricter budgets to compete with the big spenders.

As this offseason proved... Ralph isn't cheap so moneyball isn't really needed by us, because we are one of the big spenders. On the other hand... lets look of some analytics of Mario Williams in comparison to Jabaal Sheard, a player I targeted in the second round... the year we selected Aaron Williams.

The analysis conducted takes a look at two on field metrics (tackles and sacks) in relation to cost (this years salary + amortized sign-on bonus for this year).



Mario Williams - $5,900,000 (salary) + $3,166,666 (1 year worth of sign-on bonus) = $9,066,666
46 tackles = $197,101/tackle
10.5 sacks = $863,492/sack


Jabaal Sheard - $550,000 (salary) + $550,000 (1 year of sign-on bonus) = $1,100,000
54 tackles = $20,370/tackle
7 sacks = $157,142/sack


Welcome to the question portion of our program...


I haven't read the thread yet and I'm sure someone has already addressed this, but you need to normalize the comparison by including a risk premium. That could be done using a single probability or using a range with different standard deviations, but either way the draft pick is significantly less likely to achieve those numbers than a proven vet. You also need to factor the opportunity costs. A free agent signing has no opportunity cost whereas a draft pick does.

Basically what you've shown is that the draft isn't just about getting good players, it's aslo about how much they contribute while they're still cheap. Good teams get lots of good players. Great teams get lots of good players that contribute on day one.

[SquishDaFish]

Well...Mario has issues of overrrunning upfield against the run..and got worse as the year went on. He actually looked good in preseason..then the regular season games started.

More than 1/2 of his sacks this year came against the likes of Bobby Massie in AZ, or Winston Justice, or Barry Richardson (cue SquishDaFish with his war cry "But they're NFL players, dammit!!!!"). Against the Sebastian Vollmers or the Anthony Davis', the beast was silent. Kinda like the Irish D last night, what looks good against the Big Ten doesn't look quite so good against the Alabama's of the world.

In terms of run defense...he hasn't improved it at all over what we had (Chris Kelsay), and that's not good.

In terms of whether the D improved at all...some can make the argument that Chandler Jones improved NE's pitiful defense some. On the other hand, you have a hard time arguing that Mario improved the Bills defense at all.

If spending $100 million on a guy who gets his stats against bad offenses is good, well, I guess he was a wise investment.

If you're bringing someone in to help your D slow down the best O's in the league...not so much.

Do the Tackles he beat play in the NFL or not? Pop Warner? CFL?

[cookie G]

Do the Tackles he beat play in the NFL or not? Pop Warner? CFL?

Yes!!!! I knew ya wouldn't let me down!!

[Joe Fo Sho]

No u don't get it. That's the problem.

What exactly don't I get? And why is that a problem for you?