Process vs Outcome

[jimmifli]

In business management there is a lot of emphasis put into evaluating processes rather than the outcomes. This is done because at the time of the decision there is often a lot of uncertainty, usually due to incomplete information or insufficient resources required to guarantee success. So managers are forced to make decisions using the resources available within the time available, and this means they'll make some bad decisions but hopefully some good ones too. The quality of the decision can't be judged based on the outcome, which has a large component of chance. This concept is why poker players focus on their reasoning and how they played the hand and not whether they won or lost. Over the long run making decisions based on a logical and disciplined process will pay off with more good decisions.

My problem with this recent hiring isn't who we hired... it's how. My first problem is that Russ Brandon is making the hiring decisions. It should be the GM, so Nix. And if Nix isn't a real GM anymore than he should be out. If the real GM is Whaley than he should hire his own coach. If he isn't qualified to hire a coach, he should be out too. Next problem is with how they conducted the search. Russ Brandon didn't "look under every rock", he hired a guy from his hometown. He interviewed a few recently canned coaches and then hired the guy he wanted from the beginning. And for all the talk of analytics, he sure sounds like a few hours of interviews was the determining factor.

Now don't get me wrong, Marrone might turn out to be a great coach. But that's like drawing to an inside straight at this point. The process sucked, the only way the outcome works is luck. That doesn't exactly signal change. And it doesn't bode well for the future.

[YardRat]

Re: Process vs Outcome

You're assuming the process didn't start before Gailey was fired.

[jimmifli]

Re: Process vs Outcome

You're assuming the process didn't start before Gailey was fired.

Not really.

[YardRat]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Not really.

Sure you are.

How do you know the process didn't start mid-season, and the FO didn't start compiling names, doing research, and whittling down a list of possible candidates to a manageable number at that time, or even prior?

[jimmifli]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Sure you are.

How do you know the process didn't start mid-season, and the FO didn't start compiling names, doing research, and whittling down a list of possible candidates to a manageable number at that time, or even prior?

Based on who was interviewed that seems pretty implausible. I guess he whittled his list down to a manageable number that didn't include a single OC/DC from a playoff team, just a couple of guys that recently got canned and two college coaches. That's quite a list.

[cookie G]

Re: Process vs Outcome

My problem with this recent hiring isn't who we hired... it's how. My first problem is that Russ Brandon is making the hiring decisions. It should be the GM, so Nix. And if Nix isn't a real GM anymore than he should be out. If the real GM is Whaley than he should hire his own coach. If he isn't qualified to hire a coach, he should be out too. Next problem is with how they conducted the search. Russ Brandon didn't "look under every rock", he hired a guy from his hometown. He interviewed a few recently canned coaches and then hired the guy he wanted from the beginning. And for all the talk of analytics, he sure sounds like a few hours of interviews was the determining factor.

Now don't get me wrong, Marrone might turn out to be a great coach. But that's like drawing to an inside straight at this point. The process sucked, the only way the outcome works is luck. That doesn't exactly signal change. And it doesn't bode well for the future.

Stealin' my stuff again, I see.

I created a bit of a stir elsewhere with this.

[DraftBoy]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Based on who was interviewed that seems pretty implausible. I guess he whittled his list down to a manageable number that didn't include a single OC/DC from a playoff team, just a couple of guys that recently got canned and two college coaches. That's quite a list.

You're operating under an assumption that they wanted any of the current OC/DC candidates in the playoffs. While many people were high on names like Roman, Bradley, Gruden, and others it doesn't mean our consortium was.

Also, and this is very important, a team knows before they even conduct interviews if a coach is open to their job or not. They won't waste time interviewing a coach whose not interested and that is usually done through contact with the coaches agent and the agent indicates and interest or not so neither party wastes their time.

There is a lot of assumptions you're asking people to take in belief that the process is flawed when we only have a very small part of the whole picture.

[cookie G]

Re: Process vs Outcome

You're operating under an assumption that they wanted any of the current OC/DC candidates in the playoffs. While many people were high on names like Roman, Bradley, Gruden, and others it doesn't mean our consortium was.

Also, and this is very important, a team knows before they even conduct interviews if a coach is open to their job or not. They won't waste time interviewing a coach whose not interested and that is usually done through contact with the coaches agent and the agent indicates and interest or not so neither party wastes their time.

There is a lot of assumptions you're asking people to take in belief that the process is flawed when we only have a very small part of the whole picture.

You're um...giving the "consortium" (if there is one), a pretty big benefit of the doubt here.

Prior to the search, the consortium head said he would leave "no stone unturned".

Afterwards, he described the search as "thorough and exhaustive".

These can be terms of art, and mean different things under different circumstances.

This is a team on its fifth coaching search in 11 years and its 6th coach. This is a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 13 years, and has shown no improvement in a decade...as well as a propensity for making the same mistakes. The head of the "consortium" is not a football guy, with little to no experience in selecting NFL quality personnel.

With these circumstances in mind...if you are really overturning every stone, and being thorough and exhaustive...

-With his duties as marketing executive of an NFL team, it is highly unlikely that he knows the specifics of the dozens of successful college football programs, and the strengths and weaknesses of each staff. For instance, there were about 30 teams ranked higher than Syracuse this year. If you are being thorough and exhaustive, can you become educated on these teams within a few days, while at the same time holding press conferences, travelling, conducting other interviews and contemplating the numerous NFL coaches, past and present that may be available?

And after all of this self education and research, only 2 were considered worthy of an interview?

-If you are being thorough and exhaustive, and turning over every stone, and making sure you don't make the mistakes of the four previous failures, can you dismiss out of hand every assistant coach of every successful (i.e. playoff ) NFL team? Is it likely to believe that none of the offensive/defensive coordinators of the 12 playoff teams were deemed worthy of an interview? Not one?

Only one coordinator from the other 19 NFL teams? Especially when you've only considered 2 college coaches?

-There are 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL, only 7 (or is it 6?), became available this year. Many get their first shot, a second chance or, for some from the college ranks, a shot at the big leagues. Some may be content where they are, some may have other reasons, but nonetheless, it remains an exclusive position in the field. About as exclusive as you can get.
Out of all potential candidates, from both the NFL and the college ranks, only 5 were willing to interview? Only 2 recently fired coaches, 2 college coaches and one coordinator were willing to sit for an interview?

What you are talking about are really pretty implausible scenarios. Especially considering that this all took place (or failed to take place, in a matter of a few days). And especially considering past failures, what is at stake, and the inexperience of the decision maker in these circumstances. And especially considering that the decision maker himself described the search as "thorough and exhaustive".

I'd feel better if he just came out and said, "I had my guy in mind, we went after him and got him", rather than throwing out buzzwords.

At least I'd know he was being honest.

[kishoph]

Re: Process vs Outcome

How long were they suppose to make their search ? Brandon did say "I’ll leave no stone unturned", but he also said if they find the right man they'll pull the trigger. Would it have better if they would of continued to interview other candidates, while some team grabbed the guy they really liked. Also leaving no stone unturned could pertain to looking into everything about a possible candidate, not necessarily looking at dozens of them. There are people that would complain either way it was done, whether they just need to be heard or are miserable people, who knows.

[sam5767]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Perhaps it was an exhaustive search....we really only know of the people they actually interviewed....we don't know who the "consortium" researched behind the scenes and ended up crossing off their list. Why bother interviewing someone who you know you won't hire...doen't mean you didn't look into that person, just didn't waste time interviewing them. We were in competition with seven other teams for a coach...I like the fact that we made a decision. Was it the right one? Did Brandon have this guy already in mind before hand? Hopefully and perhaps....only time will tell...

[kishoph]

Re: Process vs Outcome

If Brandon and the others did have Marrone in mind previously, good for them, that means that they didn't have much thought about retaining Gailey. Why should they have sat on their hands and wait till the last minute.

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/How-the-Bills-landed-Doug-Marrone/00fc8b61-c162-4166-b1aa-803ddf4c0ce6

[YardRat]

Re: Process vs Outcome

This is a team on its fifth coaching search in 11 years and its 6th coach.

Actually this team was conducting it's first coaching search, as a team. Brandon and Overdorf may be holdovers in the organization, but Nix has been part of the team for only Gailey and Marrone, Whaley for just Marrone.

You are also assuming that Brandon and Overdorf were part of the process for the previous hirings of Jauron, Wiiliams, Mularkey, et al, which is questionable at best especially considering who had held the positions of President and GM during those searches.

I don't completely dismiss the possibility that the process was somewhat 'willy-nilly' as you and jimmi success because there is no real evidence to prove otherwise, but on the flip side you can't assume it was, for the same reason. In actuality, the time frame and efficiency would suggest it wasn't just thrown together, but rather the culmination of a process that started well before Gailey was actually canned.

[coastal]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Russ Brandon is a liar... not only with the "exhaustive and thorough" BS but as Jimmi points out, with the he's going to empower his GM to be a GM crap.

his hands are ALL OVER this hire.

This **** head is another Tom Donahoe. The only difference is he might not be an NFL mole sent here to destroy the place. He'll destroy it out of sheer incompetence.

[kishoph]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Russ Brandon is a liar... not only with the "exhaustive and thorough" BS but as Jimmi points out, with the he's going to empower his GM to be a GM crap.

his hands are ALL OVER this hire.

This **** head is another Tom Donahoe. The only difference is he might not be an NFL mole sent here to destroy the place. He'll destroy it out of sheer incompetence.

I was really tempted to give you a thanks on this, because it made me laugh so hard.

[Buckets]

Re: Process vs Outcome

Perhaps it was an exhaustive search....we really only know of the people they actually interviewed....we don't know who the "consortium" researched behind the scenes and ended up crossing off their list. Why bother interviewing someone who you know you won't hire...doen't mean you didn't look into that person, just didn't waste time interviewing them. We were in competition with seven other teams for a coach...I like the fact that we made a decision. Was it the right one? Did Brandon have this guy already in mind before hand? Hopefully and perhaps....only time will tell...

Plus almost everyone interviewed about the hire had positive things to say.