Insider: Brady's decline has begun

[Pinkerton Security]

One of the uncomfortable truths about quarterbacks headed into their late 30s is that the cliff of performance decline can seemingly come out of nowhere in a relatively short amount of time.
Dan Fouts led the league in yards per attempt (YPA) at age 34 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FoutDa00.htm) then only two years later had the second lowest YPA mark of his career. He called it quits after that season.
Dan Marino led the league in net yards per attempt when he was 35 years old (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MariDa00.htm). In each of the next three seasons, he failed to top the 7-yard YPA mark, a statistical feat that happened to him only once prior to 1996.
Fran Tarkenton led the league in touchdown passes and passer rating in 1975 at the age of 35 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TarkFr00.htm). Two years later, his numbers saw a significant decrease and that drop-off culminated in a 1978 schedule that saw Tarkenton throw 32 interceptions and rank 25th in passer rating on his way to graduating into a broadcasting career.
These are but three of a large number of potential examples that illustrate just how unforgiving Father Time can be at that stage of a quarterback's life.
As painful as it is to say this, after a detailed review of the 2012 New England Patriots season, it looks like Tom Brady, who will turn 36 prior to the 2013 season, will very soon serve as another example of this type of dramatic decline.
At first glance, this might not look to be the case. After all, Brady ranked second in the league in Total QBR (http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr), fourth in passing yards and touchdown passes and was tied for first in interception percentage.
Good as those figures are, they belie some disturbing trends. Brady's YPA (7.6) and completion percentage (63.0) were his lowest since 2006 and his touchdown percentage (5.3) was his lowest since 2009.
He also showed a significant statistical drop down the stretch, as his December numbers in YPA (7.0), completion percentage (58.5) and touchdown to interception ratio (10-to-5) were the worst monthly totals of his 2012 season.


More:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8876040/nfl-tom-brady-new-england-patriots-decline-begun

[Goobylal]

The sooner he's gone from New England, and Belichick is sure to leave when he does, the better.

[OpIv37]

I hope this is true but I won't believe til I see it. Despite declining stats, he still got the Pats a first-round bye and a trip to the AFC championship game. I'll take that "decline" any day.

Hopefully he'll have a steep drop this coming season but the Pats have a way of defying the norm on these kinds of things.

I cannot wait to see this guy hit the wall and retire. And I really hope he stays too long and finishes with a few horrid seasons to further tarnish his legacy.

[HAMMER]

Sour grapes Op.

[OpIv37]

Sour grapes Op.

I'm not denying that.

[Joe Fo Sho]

I just don't want him to ever legitimately win a Superbowl so I can at least hold that over Patriot fans heads.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

A declined Brady is still a lot better then any other QB. When you start as the best ever, you can slide along way before you get back to the pack.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Hopefully he'll have a steep drop this coming season but the Pats have a way of defying the norm on these kinds of things.

I cannot wait to see this guy hit the wall and retire. And I really hope he stays too long and finishes with a few horrid seasons to further tarnish his legacy.
Additionally I hope Suh slams him to the ground so hard that shatters his pelvis next season when they play each other.

Yes, I'm that low.

[EDS]

Brady at 50% is still the best QB in the AFC East by a wide margin. Sadly, the Pats also have a better development prospect, Mallet, then the Bills do.

[SabreEleven]

Additionally I hope Suh slams him to the ground so hard that shatters his pelvis next season when they play each other.

Yes, I'm that low.

They don't play Detroit next season.

- - - Updated - - -

Here is their schedule

<TBODY>
Home
Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa Bay,
Denver


Away
Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston

</TBODY>

[RedEyE]

Yeah his success the last couple of years is due largely to the ineffectiveness of the rest of the division. Absolutely no competition from the Bills, Jets, Dolphins.

Division record:

2012: 6-0
2011: 5-1
2010: 5-1
2009: 4-2
2008: 4-2
2007: 6-0

Need I go on...

The teams within the division need to step up and challenge these guys. We're giving them an average of 5 wins a year.

[Mr. Miyagi]

They don't play Detroit next season.

- - - Updated - - -

Here is their schedule

<TBODY>
Home

Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa Bay,
Denver



Away

Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston


</TBODY>

Oh. I thought we were playing NFC North next season.

Well then I have Pollard breaks his knee again.

[Night Train]

Wait until he tells Gisele he wishes she had more hair on her legs..Then his private life will decline..

[trapezeus]

it's a sad day when you decline while cheating.

i hope he hits the wall, belichick trades him to the jets for a boat load of picks and the curse of the jets ruins each of those picks in dramatic butt fumble type ways. i want to get back to the 90's. this whole patriots thing is nonsense and irritating.

[jimmifli]

They don't play Detroit next season.

- - - Updated - - -

Here is their schedule

<tbody>
Home
Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tampa Bay,
Denver


Away
Buffalo, Miami, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Carolina, Houston

</tbody>


Like that can stop Ndamukong Suh.

[imbondz]

what if the Patriots pull a Packers. ugh.

[better days]

Well, I posted that he would start his decline before the season started. And anyone that thinks he is not in decline did not watch him this year.

[Frenchman]

Seems like QBs that turned 35 and after that, do begin into decline over health reasons and not being sharp or quick like they used to!

[better days]

I hope this is true but I won't believe til I see it. Despite declining stats, he still got the Pats a first-round bye and a trip to the AFC championship game. I'll take that "decline" any day.

Hopefully he'll have a steep drop this coming season but the Pats have a way of defying the norm on these kinds of things.

I cannot wait to see this guy hit the wall and retire. And I really hope he stays too long and finishes with a few horrid seasons to further tarnish his legacy.

This year the Pats* kind of remind me of Kelly & the Bills in their last Super Bowl. That was the end of Kelly & Brady is on his way out.

[Mr. Pink]

Every year for what, the past 5 seasons, people clamor that the Pats are done.

And each year they just keep doing what they're doing and cruise to the playoffs.

I guess if you keep saying they'll decline, eventually you'll be right though.

[THRILLHO]

I am still not ready to say he is on "the decline" just yet. This year he was missing his most effective target in Gronkowski (a player I hate more than Brady) and his WRs seemed to drop a lot of balls too.

NE ran a good offense and seem to be onto something with this quick tempo they have going. I would take Tom Brady over almost any NFL QB right now. Peyton would be my number one.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Brady, unless Pollard can break him -- and hey I'd love to see Pollard in our defensive backfield as a patriot killing specialist (yes it would be worth a draft choice or two to get him in here and knock out a couple pats -- has about 5 more years left in him, three of which he will be world class and the last two will be mediocre.

[psubills62]

I wouldn't say his decline has begun. Brady's still playing really well. Their defense has not been up to par since their last SB win, and this year losing Gronk again really hurt. Just can't quite get over the hump and win the SB again.

[coastal]

He's nowhere near as accurate on deep balls this year.

Thats where he's dropped off.

[OpIv37]

This year the Pats* kind of remind me of Kelly & the Bills in their last Super Bowl. That was the end of Kelly & Brady is on his way out.

I hope you are right. I really do.

[Captain Obvious]

Every year for what, the past 5 seasons, people clamor that the Pats are done.

And each year they just keep doing what they're doing and cruise to the playoffs.

I guess if you keep saying they'll decline, eventually you'll be right though.


You're missing the point. This has nothing to do with the Pats.. And no one is suggesting Brady sucks. He wasnt as good in 2012 as he was in 2011 his best years are behind him even though he is still a Top 4 Qb in the league he is on a slope downward

[better days]

Every year for what, the past 5 seasons, people clamor that the Pats are done.

And each year they just keep doing what they're doing and cruise to the playoffs.

I guess if you keep saying they'll decline, eventually you'll be right though.

Well, they did not win even one playoff game this year. That is a decline.

[better days]

Brady at 50% is still the best QB in the AFC East by a wide margin. Sadly, the Pats also have a better development prospect, Mallet, then the Bills do.

Agreed Brady is the best QB in the AFC EAST so far, but there is no evidence Mallet is any good at all.

[YardRat]

Unfortunately for all of us, whenever he hangs up his cleats he'll most likely transition right into a big time broadcasting gig and we'll have to put up with his commentary for many years to come.

- - - Updated - - -


Well, they did not win even one playoff game this year. That is a decline.

They beat Houston.

[Cleve]

At age 36, he probably won't be better next year than he was this year. Odds are, his performance will deteriorate slightly. 2 seasons, maybe 3 tops left in Brady's career.

[Buckets]

The Bills will trade a first round pick for him.

[Pinkerton Security]

Unfortunately for all of us, whenever he hangs up his cleats he'll most likely transition right into a big time broadcasting gig and we'll have to put up with his commentary for many years to come.

That would suck, but I'd rather have him commentating than throwing an average of probably 35 points up on the Bills lol

[DynaPaul]

He'll never win another Super Bowl again, bet on it.

[TigerJ]

One can only hope.

[EDS]

Agreed Brady is the best QB in the AFC EAST so far, but there is no evidence Mallet is any good at all.

I would take Mallet over any QB on the Bills roster right now. Big likelihood he is awful but that puts the Bills in good position for the 2014 draft.

[Ed]

I think a steep Brady decline is just wishful thinking on our parts. It's kind of pointless to compare him to players like Marino and Fouts who played so many years ago. Those guys weren't protected the way qb's are today. Plus, with the way players take care of themselves these days with advancements in things like nutrition and training, pro athletes in their mid 30's are in way better physical condition than guys from 20+ years ago.

Brady says he wants to play until he's 40. I think that really sucks for us.

[better days]

I think a steep Brady decline is just wishful thinking on our parts. It's kind of pointless to compare him to players like Marino and Fouts who played so many years ago. Those guys weren't protected the way qb's are today. Plus, with the way players take care of themselves these days with advancements in things like nutrition and training, pro athletes in their mid 30's are in way better physical condition than guys from 20+ years ago.

Brady says he wants to play until he's 40. I think that really sucks for us.

I hope he tries to play until he is 40. Did you watch the game against the Ravens? It was clear Brady was afraid of getting hit. He played SCARED.

[better days]

I would take Mallet over any QB on the Bills roster right now. Big likelihood he is awful but that puts the Bills in good position for the 2014 draft.

Well, I doubt the Pats* would give Mallet up for free. Would you be willing to PAY the Pats* for him? I would not. Not even a 7th rnd pick.

[trapezeus]

if the decline is true, can you imagine that last year where mentally he still thinks he's got it and he's just getting crushed game after game. That season would be excellent to watch. dead duck long balls picked off. His wind-up taking a little extra so he gets hit more. he gets rattled and cries about it, but now it's impossible for the refs to cover. the stories about how he is in decline. the followup of belichick stoicly looking on thinking of yesteryear and how he needs ernie adams to modify the cheating to their benefit.

Truly, i look forward to that year. and if it's next year, all the better.

[Ed]

I hope he tries to play until he is 40. Did you watch the game against the Ravens? It was clear Brady was afraid of getting hit. He played SCARED.
I did watch him against the Ravens. I also watched him during the whole season. He played like an MVP and kicked the Bills butts on his way to another easy division title. Maybe he doesn't win another super bowl, but as long as he's the Pats qb that means headaches for us. This is pretty comical. Brady has one mediocre game against a good Ravens team and he's finished. I guess he's just gonna fall over and play dead when he sees the Bills next year since he's so scared of playing football now.

[better days]

I did watch him against the Ravens. I also watched him during the whole season. He played like an MVP and kicked the Bills butts on his way to another easy division title. Maybe he doesn't win another super bowl, but as long as he's the Pats qb that means headaches for us. This is pretty comical. Brady has one mediocre game against a good Ravens team and he's finished. I guess he's just gonna fall over and play dead when he sees the Bills next year since he's so scared of playing football now.

I can't wait until next year & see that Pettine defense crush Brady.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Brady will play football into his forties and probably have at least three more good seasons. A Brady on the downside of his career is still better than any qb we've had since Flutie.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

if the decline is true, can you imagine that last year where mentally he still thinks he's got it and he's just getting crushed game after game. That season would be excellent to watch. dead duck long balls picked off. His wind-up taking a little extra so he gets hit more. he gets rattled and cries about it, but now it's impossible for the refs to cover. the stories about how he is in decline. the followup of belichick stoicly looking on thinking of yesteryear and how he needs ernie adams to modify the cheating to their benefit.

Truly, i look forward to that year. and if it's next year, all the better.p

this is a very inspirational post. I applaude you. This will be a happy time.

[Goobylal]

Brady is definitely on the decline. Sure he might guide them to another division title, but that's not saying much, given the state of the AFC East/the past decade. And he'll be losing Welker to FA, has no other WR's outside of the average Brandon Lloyd who will soon be 32, and their TE's can't stay healthy for a whole season.

[better days]

Brady will play football into his forties and probably have at least three more good seasons. A Brady on the downside of his career is still better than any qb we've had since Flutie until this year.

Fixed that for you.

[Goobylal]

Fixed that for you.
Flutie had a season's worth of good games, until he was figured-out. Look at his record with the Chargers, a team bereft of talent, unlike the Bills.

[SABURZFAN]

the decline may have begun but he's still winning football games.

[TigerJ]

I hope he tries to play until he is 40. Did you watch the game against the Ravens? It was clear Brady was afraid of getting hit. He played SCARED.The good news is that is essentially the defense Mike Pettine wants to import to the Bills. Be afraid, Marcia. Be very afraid. LOL

[trapezeus]

p

this is a very inspirational post. I applaude you. This will be a happy time.


you want inspirational. Think of that sunday night game where rodney harrison assumes that the cold streak is over and that brady is ready to unleash his mid season form. and he gets thrashed in that game. then it cuts back to an empty seat where Rodney should be but he's vomitting like ace ventura. he knows his boy has lost it.

that will be the pinnacle of the whole fall for brady. then maybe they come out of halftime and gillette stadium is empty and it'll be like these last 13 years never happened. the only way it gets better is if the bills are the ones dishing out the pain after the NFL screws us yet again with the pats coming off the bye and the bills playing on the road.

I have a dream...

[Extremebillsfan247]

One of the uncomfortable truths about quarterbacks headed into their late 30s is that the cliff of performance decline can seemingly come out of nowhere in a relatively short amount of time. Dan Fouts led the league in yards per attempt (YPA) at age 34 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FoutDa00.htm) then only two years later had the second lowest YPA mark of his career. He called it quits after that season. Dan Marino led the league in net yards per attempt when he was 35 years old (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MariDa00.htm). In each of the next three seasons, he failed to top the 7-yard YPA mark, a statistical feat that happened to him only once prior to 1996. Fran Tarkenton led the league in touchdown passes and passer rating in 1975 at the age of 35 (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TarkFr00.htm). Two years later, his numbers saw a significant decrease and that drop-off culminated in a 1978 schedule that saw Tarkenton throw 32 interceptions and rank 25th in passer rating on his way to graduating into a broadcasting career. These are but three of a large number of potential examples that illustrate just how unforgiving Father Time can be at that stage of a quarterback's life. As painful as it is to say this, after a detailed review of the 2012 New England Patriots season, it looks like Tom Brady, who will turn 36 prior to the 2013 season, will very soon serve as another example of this type of dramatic decline. At first glance, this might not look to be the case. After all, Brady ranked second in the league in Total QBR (http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr), fourth in passing yards and touchdown passes and was tied for first in interception percentage. Good as those figures are, they belie some disturbing trends. Brady's YPA (7.6) and completion percentage (63.0) were his lowest since 2006 and his touchdown percentage (5.3) was his lowest since 2009. He also showed a significant statistical drop down the stretch, as his December numbers in YPA (7.0), completion percentage (58.5) and touchdown to interception ratio (10-to-5) were the worst monthly totals of his 2012 season. More: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8876040/nfl-tom-brady-new-england-patriots-decline-begun That could be slightly misleading because QB's are in a bubble now more than ever. Back when Marino, Tarkenton, and Fouts played, there were no rules about hits to the head, and roughing the passer was really roughing the passer back then. My point is that QBs today don't take the same kind of pounding that they used to, unless they do unconventional things like RGIII does. That has a factor where age is concerned. JMO

[justasportsfan]

Brady's decline has begun ..

I agree, his vagina is drying up.

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

Brady's decline has begun ..

I agree, his vagina is drying up.
Uh... Eeeeuwwwwwwww :(

[Mike]

This year the Pats* kind of remind me of Kelly & the Bills in their last Super Bowl. That was the end of Kelly & Brady is on his way out.

I have been saying it since the beginning of the year...and got plenty of greif for it.

I dont think the Pats will win another SB with Brady & Belichick. Their window is not closed but so far shut that other teams have a much better chance.

Most importantly, the Pats and Brady dont have that 'IT' factor like they did in the early 2000's. Maybe its age, or team, etc what ever the reason they just dont have the Magic since losing that SB to NYG. Its almost as if that 'Spark' is gone.

[Goobylal]

I have been saying it since the beginning of the year...and got plenty of greif for it.

I dont think the Pats will win another SB with Brady & Belichick. Their window is not closed but so far shut that other teams have a much better chance.

Most importantly, the Pats and Brady dont have that 'IT' factor like they did in the early 2000's. Maybe its age, or team, etc what ever the reason they just dont have the Magic since losing that SB to NYG. Its almost as if that 'Spark' is gone.
"It" being illegal videotaping.

[fluteflakes]

"It" being illegal videotaping.

And the defense that Parcells built that the BRILLIANT Bill Belichick couldn't win without.

The second that defense left and the Pats became the high scoring circus they are now, it was the end. No team can win without a good defense. And the Pats have a bad defense that's not primed to get much better.

[jills]

I have been saying it since the beginning of the year...and got plenty of greif for it.

I dont think the Pats will win another SB with Brady & Belichick. Their window is not closed but so far shut that other teams have a much better chance.

Most importantly, the Pats and Brady dont have that 'IT' factor like they did in the early 2000's. Maybe its age, or team, etc what ever the reason they just dont have the Magic since losing that SB to NYG. Its almost as if that 'Spark' is gone.

http://etudiant.univ-mlv.fr/~fchater/Imgs/cameraman1.jpg

[Bunion]

Brady is definitely on the decline. Sure he might guide them to another division title, but that's not saying much, given the state of the AFC East/the past decade. And he'll be losing Welker to FA, has no other WR's outside of the average Brandon Lloyd who will soon be 32, and their TE's can't stay healthy for a whole season.

In fairness, it was Belidick who decided that Gronkowski HAD to be on the field for a PAT, in case their opposition came back from 28 down in the 4th Quarter. Then let him rush back into the lineup, so Boston sportsfans couldf watch him play with one arm vs. Miami. Which he broke again. That's called excellent personnel management.

[Goobylal]

In fairness, it was Belidick who decided that Gronkowski HAD to be on the field for a PAT, in case their opposition came back from 28 down in the 4th Quarter. Then let him rush back into the lineup, so Boston sportsfans couldf watch him play with one arm vs. Miami. Which he broke again. That's called excellent personnel management.
Having Gronk in the lineup was no guarantee of then going to the AFCCG, much less the SB, much much less winning the SB. And without Gronk, they still scored 30 PPG.

[Bunion]

Having Gronk in the lineup was no guarantee of then going to the AFCCG, much less the SB, much much less winning the SB. And without Gronk, they still scored 30 PPG.

You're right. I'm trying to get at BB's decision making going tits up, but I made a real ****ty argument.