X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

[X-Era]

The Bills are at 20.6 in cap space with the carry over.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2012...t-cap-strategy

Using this as a guide we could save the following by making some cuts (in Mill): http://www.nyjetscap.com/Bills/bills2013.php
Kelsay- 4.175- Not worth it with the emergence of Kyle Moore
Fitz- 4.5- Has to go
Barnett- 3.5- Keep or cut. I say keep
Smith- 2.75- Pointless for what we get from him
McGee- 2.1- Injured all the time and over the hill. Needs to be replaced with youth

I would cut Kelsay, Fitz, Smith and McGee. That adds back another 13.525 mill. That puts us at 34.125 mill under the cap.

Our free agents look like this:
Exclusive Rights Free Agent
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...c.php?t=506753
Mike Caussin- Tender- .5- two accrued seasons
Dorin Dickerson- Tender- .5- two accrued season
Total: 1 mill

Restricted Free Agent
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2013/01...nts-announced/
Colin Brown- Let go
Donald Jones- Let go. Injury prone and has done nothing of note
David Nelson- Tender at right of first refusal level- 1.3
Total 1.3 mill Unrestricted Free Agent

Re-sign:
Jarius Byrd- Franchise Tag- 6.8 mill
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buff...ls-roster-2013
Ruvell Martin- Re-sign cheap- Vet min (around .5)
Corey McIntyre- Re-sign cheap- Vet min
Leodis McKelvin- Re-sign mid level- 2-3 per. Worth it as our returner and CB depth
Kyle Moore- Re-sign cheap- 1-1.5
Chad Rhineheart- Re-sign cheap- 1-1.5
Bryan Scott- Re-sign cheap- Vet min
Total: 12.3-14.3

Let walk:
Andy Levitre- Let walk at 7-8 mill per
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...re-jairus-byrd
Tashard Choice- Let walk
Travaris Jackson- Let walk
Spencer Johnson- Let walk
Shawne Merriman- Let walk
Tyler Thigpen- Let walk

I know everyone wants to keep Levitre. I love the guy too. But this team needs a new starting QB from FA and really also could use either another big time WR or a serious upgrade at LB. It's possible to draft a G who could play fairly solid day one. It would be a loss for sure but the choice is an all-pro G or another a starting QB and a solid LB. The teams has bigger needs. With these moves we eat up 14.6-16.6 of our 34.125. That leaves us at 19.525-17.25

In Free Agency:
Alex Smith -Trade for or sign- 6-7 per- Probably can be had on a 4 year deal in this range http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-franc...rs/alex-smith/
Johnathan Vilma- Sign if cut- 4.5 per- Rumored to be on the chopping block since the Saints are in cap hell
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orlea...onathan-vilma/
DRC- sign- 3 per- Young vet with talent
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelp...ers-cromartie/

That eats up another 13.5 out of the 19.525-17.25 and leaves us with around 6.025. That makes signing the draft picks tight. Last year Gilmore got about 3 mill per. It probably takes 7-8 to get them all signed. Look for a few of the deals done to have a lower cap hit in year one. Alex Smith deal probably has a bonus that lets us get out of it after the first year plus a lower cap hit in year one. Also some cuts like Caussins, Moats, Chris White give us maybe 1 mill back.

Draft:
1) Cordarelle Patterson- WR- Tenn- Big, fast, dynamic WR that Nix covets
2) Ryan Nassib- QB- Syr- The QB for the future
3) Justin Pugh- OG- Syr- Like Levitre is a short armed LT who moves inside to LG
4) Khaseem Greene- OLB- Rut- Rangy OLB. Helps cover the slot and TE's
5) Zavier Gooden- OLB- Mizzou- Rangy OLB. Helps cover the slot and TE's
6) Brandon McGee- CB- Miami

An alternate draft moving down from 8:
1-#20) Tyler Wilson
2-1) Robert Woods- WR- USC
2-2) Brian Winters- OG- Kent State
3-1) Tavarres King- WR- Georgia
3-2) Jordan Poyer- CB- Ore St
4) Khaseem Greene
5) Zavier Gooden
6) Brandon McGee

This version gives us lots of picks an options on draft day. We get the QB and flexibility to add a playmaking WR like Woods plus a burner in King. Winters is a day one starter at LG and the type of mauler that Bills fans will love. Poyer is a nice looking CB prospect and we still get the rangy OLB's.

An alternate draft moving back up to the 1st for the QB:
1-#8) Cordarelle Patterson
1-#20) Tyler Wilson
4) Khaseem Greene
5) Zavier Gooden
6) Brandon McGee

This version gives us the stud WR prospect, the QB and still allows for some rangy LB'ers but leaves us with no starting LG. Could Urbik do it and then start Rhineheart at RG? Eesh. Not a huge fan of that.

Depth Chart:
QB- Alex Smith, Ryan Nassib, Alex Carder (UFA)
WR- Stevie Johnson, TJ Graham, Ruvell Martin
WR- Cordarelle Patterson, David Nelson, Marcus Easley
RB- CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, Zach Brown
FB- Corey McIntyre, Dorin Dickerson
TE- Scott Chandler, Lee Smith
LT- Cordy Glenn, Zebrie Sanders
LG- Justin Pugh, Keith Williams
C- Eric Wood, Chad Rhineheart
RG- Kraig Urbik, Chad Rhineheart
RT- Erik Pears, Chris Hairston, Sam Young
DE- Mario Williams, Kyle Moore
DT- Kyle Williams, Jay Ross
DT- Marcel Dareus, Torell Troup
DE- Mark Anderson, Alex Carrington
OLB- Nigel Bradham, Zavier Gooden
ILB- Johnathan Vilma, Kelvin Sheppard
OLB- Nick Barnett, Khaseem Greene, Bryan Scott
CB- Stephon Gilmore, Ron Brooks, Justin Rogers
FS- Jarius Byrd, Mana Silva
SS- George Wilson, DaNorris Searcy
CB- DRC, Aaron Williams
K- Rian Lindell
P- Shawn Powell
LS- Garrison Sanborn

Updated: Added alternate draft possibilities with moving down in the 1st and up back into the 1st for the QB.

[YardRat]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.0

I agree with the cuts.
Go ahead and tender Caussin and Dickerson, but both should be camp fodder.
I don't think they'll let Jones walk, he'll be tendered.
Hell no to Ruvell Martin, but I wouldn't mind keeping the rest although I really believe another team will give a contract to McKelvin that the Bills won't want to compete with.
Keeping Levitre would be nice, but unfortunately unlikely. I'd re-sign S.Johnson unless an upgrade in FA or draft is targeted.
I want absolutely nothing to do with A.Smith, but Vilma and DRC would be nice acquisitions. We absolutely need LBers and CBs badly, and they can't all come from the draft.

[X-Era]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.0

I agree with the cuts.
Go ahead and tender Caussin and Dickerson, but both should be camp fodder.
I don't think they'll let Jones walk, he'll be tendered.
Hell no to Ruvell Martin, but I wouldn't mind keeping the rest although I really believe another team will give a contract to McKelvin that the Bills won't want to compete with.
Keeping Levitre would be nice, but unfortunately unlikely. I'd re-sign S.Johnson unless an upgrade in FA or draft is targeted.
I want absolutely nothing to do with A.Smith, but Vilma and DRC would be nice acquisitions. We absolutely need LBers and CBs badly, and they can't all come from the draft.

I want Fitz gone and Smith would give us insurance for the rookie. I wouldn't mind it if it had an out after the first year or two.

But, I'm also not opposed to starting the rookie. This years playoffs showed you can be successful in year one or two with a rookie or second year QB. And, freeing up that 6-7 mill may give us the funds to go to lock up Levitre. If we think we could start the rookie, I'd be fine with locking up Levitre.

What's your take on the alternate drafts I just added?

[YardRat]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.0

I want Fitz gone and Smith would give us insurance for the rookie. I wouldn't mind it if it had an out after the first year or two.

But, I'm also not opposed to starting the rookie. This years playoffs showed you can be successful in year one or two with a rookie or second year QB. And, freeing up that 6-7 mill may give us the funds to go to lock up Levitre. If we think we could start the rookie, I'd be fine with locking up Levitre.

What's your take on the alternate drafts I just added?

Not a fan of Wilson, would rather roll the dice on somebody else in those scenarios. Glennon or Manuel.

[Lexwhat]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

Excellent post, but absolutely 1000% disagree with letting Levitre walk. Using your numbers, with an average of ~$18 million in cap space, we will absolutely be able to sign either Levitre or Byrd to a long-term contract, while at least franchise tagging the other... Worst case scenario is to do a franchise-tag-and-trade for ANYTHING.

For someone who bashes the fact that the Bills historically trade away elite players in their prime (and I'm with you), it makes no sense to let a top-5 Guard in the AFC at 26 years old walk away for nothing.

If anything, I say sign both Levitre and Byrd to a long-term contract and let ERIC WOOD walk next season. We aren't gonna break the bank for any other FAs this season, and unlike last off-season, there's no one even available that's worth big money... Levitre has never missed a game in his career, while Wood is injured every single season. It's a no-brainer... Even the Patriots, who are notorious for being cut-throat with negotiations, gave Logan Mankins a contract that was almost as high as Carl Nicks got a year later.

Trust it, we have enough cap money for both players. These buffoons at OBD better not mess this one up...

Great post otherwise.

[Ed]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

I'd consider adding George Wilson to the list of potential cuts. Maybe he can be a lot more effective under Pettine, but if not I think the $3.4 mil in savings could be better spent elsewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if Pettine pushes to bring in Laron Landry.

[clumping platelets]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

Are you making Fitz a post June 1st cut?

[coastal]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

Jesus Christ...

Let our best o-linemen go? Draft Nassib? Draft an uber-athlete skill position player at 8th overall? Don't get Kyle Williams some talented help to split time with?

basically look at this as a one year project when it reality, its still a two-three year deal... As long as we're resigning our own productive free agents.

Puke.

[X-Era]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

Are you making Fitz a post June 1st cut?

Ugh. I wanted to respond that it's got to be timed right to recoup the 4.5 mill. But I see conflicting reports on when and how much.

This is saying before the March bonus of 3 mill.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/68811/bills-can-save-millions-by-cutting-fitzpatrick

[X-Era]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

Jesus Christ...

Let our best o-linemen go? Draft Nassib? Draft an uber-athlete skill position player at 8th overall? Don't get Kyle Williams some talented help to split time with?

basically look at this as a one year project when it reality, its still a two-three year deal... As long as we're resigning our own productive free agents.

Puke.

OK, so we resign Levitre and Byrd and cut Fitz. Who's the QB? How are you paying for it? Start a rookie QB? I can get behind that idea. I just want insurance.

I'm not against that but please show me who this team adds in FA when they spend 16-18 mill of their cap in Byrd and Levitre.

[coastal]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

OK, so we resign Levitre and Byrd and cut Fitz. Who's the QB? How are you paying for it? Start a rookie QB? I can get behind that idea. I just want insurance.

I'm not against that but please show me who this team adds in FA when they spend 16-18 mill of their cap in Byrd and Levitre.

Cash to crap baby. Cash to crap.

in all seriousness... Appreciate the effort, but just don't agree with where u r taking the team in this scenario.

Mill be unveiling my plan soon.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

X your post is exactly why I was saying that both Levitre and Byrd being back next season is a pipe dream at best.

We bring both back, we have no room for any FA moves of significance.

And that's with cutting Fitz, Smith, McGee, Kelsay...

If we cut those guys, we need to replace them someone. And those someone's will need contracts.

It's next to financially impossible to bring back both Levitre and Byrd and still make legitimate improvements on this roster that needs quite a few unless you think we pull off a once in a lifetime draft where everyone is an upgrade and all make significant contributions to the team.

[BertSquirtgum]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

It would be really stupid to let Levitre walk.

- - - Updated - - -

X your post is exactly why I was saying that both Levitre and Byrd being back next season is a pipe dream at best.

We bring both back, we have no room for any FA moves of significance.

And that's with cutting Fitz, Smith, McGee, Kelsay...

If we cut those guys, we need to replace them someone. And those someone's will need contracts.

It's next to financially impossible to bring back both Levitre and Byrd and still make legitimate improvements on this roster that needs quite a few unless you think we pull off a once in a lifetime draft where everyone is an upgrade and all make significant contributions to the team.

Disagree.

[clumping platelets]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

Ugh. I wanted to respond that it's got to be timed right to recoup the 4.5 mill. But I see conflicting reports on when and how much.

This is saying before the March bonus of 3 mill.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/po...ng-fitzpatrick

If Fitz is traded before payment of $3 million roster bonus his cap savings is only $450,000

If he's released as a post June 1st, his 2013 cap savings are more significant and only his 2013 proration is on 2013 book, the rest of his remaining proration in on the 2014 cap

[X-Era]

Re: X's Fearless Offseason Moves V1.1

X your post is exactly why I was saying that both Levitre and Byrd being back next season is a pipe dream at best.

We bring both back, we have no room for any FA moves of significance.

And that's with cutting Fitz, Smith, McGee, Kelsay...

If we cut those guys, we need to replace them someone. And those someone's will need contracts.

It's next to financially impossible to bring back both Levitre and Byrd and still make legitimate improvements on this roster that needs quite a few unless you think we pull off a once in a lifetime draft where everyone is an upgrade and all make significant contributions to the team.

Keeping both Levitre and Byrd is do-able IMO but requires us to start a rookie at QB. I don't see how we could keep both and tie up another 6-8 mill per in a new QB from FA. Unless that's the only thing we went after from FA.

Using my moves it would mean not signing DRC and Vilma but only Alex Smith for example.

How big a deal would that be? Well, were then still trying to get better at WR, LB, and draft a QB of the future all from the draft.

Wouldn't be my first choice.