Breaking Down Mike Pettine

[DraftBoy]

This is a two part piece just due to the amount of numbers involved. The first part is using advanced stats or analytics to breakdown Pettine's NYJ defenses. Special thanks to the guys at PFF and FO who did a hell of a job helping me compile these numbers. It's a lot to digest but here is Part 1;
http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2013/02/breaking-down-mike-pettine-part-1/


A few weeks ago the Buffalo Bills announced that former New York Jets Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine would be joining new coach Doug Marrone’s staff. From my perspective this was exactly what the Bills needed to do at Defensive Coordinator. The youth, energy, and intensity that Pettine had in New York was evident every Sunday. The question in front of me was how do I measure Pettine’s defenses in New York, and how do I show that in a post?

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Part 2 drops tomorrow and has more to do with schematic expectations, defensive fits, and options moving forward.

[YardRat]

It would be interesting to see some of the same charts for the Bills for a comparison.

[DraftBoy]

It would be interesting to see some of the same charts for the Bills for a comparison.

Ill see what I can do in part 2.

[DraftBoy]

Bump...

Part 2 later today if I ever leave my office.

[The Compromise]

The problem with Pettine is exactly what it is with Hackett, he too didn't call the plays in the Jets' D, it was Ryan most of the time. Ryan handed him the keys a couple of times, but took them back after not too long.

If a coordinator doesn't call the plays, then the tough questions must be asked, what did he do then? What was his role specifically other than as an asst. to the HC who was acting as the coordinator in both Hackett's and Pettine's cases.

We can sit here and cheaply say that he did this or that, but the reality of it is that we simply don't know and those things are difficult if not impossible to ascertain. No coach is going to say about one of their coordinators that, "yeah, I just had him around to run the practices and fill in when it was too much for me on game days."

So really, both Hackett and Pettine have some large degrees of mystery meat affixed to them.

Unfortunately that's the problem with this entire primarily collegiate staff from the top down. Their odds of success are severely stacked against them for that reason alone much less others.

They have a mountain to climb if they're going to be much different than what we've had in Buffalo.

Despite the impatience of many, they deserve the 2013 season as a rebuilding year although I'm not sure that many are going to give it to them. Having said that, the impatience of fans is fully justified as well.

They should have cleaned house in the front office too, which would have done more over the long term than merely ditching the coaching staff.

[justasportsfan]

The problem with Pettine is exactly what it is with Hackett, he too didn't call the plays in the Jets' D, it was Ryan most of the time. Ryan handed him the keys a couple of times, but took them back after not too long.



not according to DB's article


2011

This was the year when Mike Pettine was truly allowed to take over the Jets defense and call the plays. Years previous he worked closely with coach Ryan to develop gameplans and call plays on Sundays but here is when he was finally able to put his signature on the team.

Football Outsiders
NFL Rank DVOA
Team Defense 2nd -16.1%
Pass Defense 2nd -16.0%
Run Defense 4th -16.2%

The Jets didn’t waste much time bouncing back from what was a poor 2010 for them defensively. They lowered both their total defense and pass defense DVOA’s and even though their run defense DVOA rose some it was not near the dramatic increases we saw in 2010. These returns seem to suggest a more balanced defense that was capable of shutting down both teams running and pass options.



As far as what I read is that Hackett did call the plays for SU last year and their offense took off with just changing things in one offseason.


Hackett called the plays on Syracuse's history-making offense in 2012. Aside from some dubious goaline decision-making, it was a huge success and proof that Hackett could put together a gameplan that's fun for players and puts points on the scoreboard.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2013/1/7/3849606/nate-hackett-to-remain-syracuse-offensive-coordinator-according-to

[DraftBoy]

Part 2 is posted, lots of formations, schematics, and pictures;
http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2013/02/breaking-down-mike-pettine-part-2/

[Oaf]

TL;DR?

[Thief]

This was the year when Mike Pettine was truly allowed to take over the Jets defense and call the plays. Years previous he worked closely with coach Ryan to develop gameplans and call plays on Sundays but here is when he was finally able to put his signature on the team.How do you know this?

[DraftBoy]

How do you know this?

Wide variety of links and sources, here is one from November 2011 stating Pettine makes 98% of the Jets defensive calls. LB David Harris is the one who made the quote.

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2011/11/jets_vs_patriots_mike_pettine.html

It should be noted and I mistakenly left it out of the article but in 2012 Ryan took back some of the play calling duties because he didn't like how Pettine dialed it down a notch at points. The results as you can see were quite clear from 2011 to 2012.

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TL;DR?
I'm honestly not sure what this means.

[Thief]

Wide variety of links and sources, here is one from November 2011 stating Pettine makes 98% of the Jets defensive calls. LB David Harris is the one who made the quote.

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2011/11/jets_vs_patriots_mike_pettine.html

It should be noted and I mistakenly left it out of the article but in 2012 Ryan took back some of the play calling duties because he didn't like how Pettine dialed it down a notch at points. The results as you can see were quite clear from 2011 to 2012.

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I'm honestly not sure what this means.So, does that say that Ryan was more aggressive, or maybe even pushed Pettine to be aggressive?

[Bunion]

TL;DR?

Mike Pettine deploys the weirdest formations more often than pretty much anybody in the NFL. He uses formations on 10-15% of his playcalls that the rest of the league uses in 0-1% The only formation he seems to hate is a 4-3-4. If he's going to use the skills he's developed working in New Jersey and Baltimore, we need more and better linebackers, and we need them now. DE/OLB types that can get after a QB, and tweeners that could play 'Bandit' in a 3-3-5 Stack. Mike Pettine's a good D-Coordinator with or without Rex Ryan. His favorite player on the roster right now is probably Jairus Byrd.

[The Compromise]

not according to DB's article


As far as what I read is that Hackett did call the plays for SU last year and their offense took off with just changing things in one offseason.



http://www.nunesmagician.com/2013/1/7/3849606/nate-hackett-to-remain-syracuse-offensive-coordinator-according-to


My bad, I was thinking about Marrone in NO. Hackett has zero OC experience at the NFL level, which renders the points that I raised as equally if not more relevant.

As to Pettine, I was told that he did not call the plays most of the time by someone I know that is associated with the Jets. Not sure who has more cred, him or Harris.

Either way, concerning me is that the Jets' D regressed over the past three seasons, significantly, and it can't all be pinned on Revis this season being on IR.

On a side note, and w/o going to the other thread, I really don't understand the Barnett and Wilson releases. This new coaching staff did themselves no favors by cutting the team's two leading tacklers this past season and arguably the two most consistent players on the D.

[DraftBoy]

So, does that say that Ryan was more aggressive, or maybe even pushed Pettine to be aggressive?

Could be, there is a line between being aggressive and being reckless. Rob Ryan has a tendency to be reckless in his packages and while they produce solid surface numbers the defenses tend to struggle overall. Rex is a little more reserved but not by much. I love aggressive attacking defense but you can't send 5 or 6 on every play or else teams scheme against it. Pettine balances that approach along with unorthodox formations in order to keep offenses guessing all game long.

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Mike Pettine deploys the weirdest formations more often than pretty much anybody in the NFL. He uses formations on 10-15% of his playcalls that the rest of the league uses in 0-1% The only formation he seems to hate is a 4-3-4. If he's going to use the skills he's developed working in New Jersey and Baltimore, we need more and better linebackers, and we need them now. DE/OLB types that can get after a QB, and tweeners that could play 'Bandit' in a 3-3-5 Stack. Mike Pettine's a good D-Coordinator with or without Rex Ryan. His favorite player on the roster right now is probably Jairus Byrd.

The free ranging safety is a MUST have in Pettine's defense.

[DraftBoy]

My bad, I was thinking about Marrone in NO. Hackett has zero OC experience at the NFL level, which renders the points that I raised as equally if not more relevant.

As to Pettine, I was told that he did not call the plays most of the time by someone I know that is associated with the Jets. Not sure who has more cred, him or Harris.

Either way, concerning me is that the Jets' D regressed over the past three seasons, significantly, and it can't all be pinned on Revis this season being on IR.

On a side note, and w/o going to the other thread, I really don't understand the Barnett and Wilson releases. This new coaching staff did themselves no favors by cutting the team's two leading tacklers this past season and arguably the two most consistent players on the D.

In 2011 Pettine called almost all the plays in 2010 and 2012 it was more of a 50/50 split.

[justasportsfan]

Either way, concerning me is that the Jets' D regressed over the past three seasons, significantly,

the jets as a whole regressed and more than just losing Revis. I suspect it's because the coaches gave up on Sexy Rexy which is why they all left him. The jets were just one big mess all around.

In any case, I'm more optimistic with Pettine than I am with Wanny who was his usual conservative self and had no imagination. It was pretty obvious Wanny didn't keep up with how the game has evolved since he left the NFL.

[Don't Panic]

Great work DB... I especially liked Part 2.

I see a lot of 3-3-5 coming and Ogletree being a great fit for it. Why no mention of him? Doesn't he fit the versatility theme you stressed in the piece?

I'd still like to see another hybrid LB added as well via FA.

All in all, I think we're going to have a huge jump in performance out of the D this year. Very encouraging.