Levitre & Byrd by the numbers

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Ok, I've been arguing on the board that we should re-sign both Levitre and Byrd, and been countered that Levitre at least would be too expensive to invest in. So I decided to run the numbers. I pulled all the cap hits from http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/ and then looked at the cap hits through the 2015 season, assuming the same $121 million cap each year.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bxns5lStfQlSMlkwSXZQTFJwSkU/edit?usp=sharing

Ignore the annoying bar graph, I'm no Excel guru and I don't know how to get rid of it.

Anyway, the important point is that we have, by my calculation, $19 million in cap space as of this very moment.

So I cut Fitz, Kelsay, Brad Smith, and Rian Lindell - the four guys who seemed to have the largest disconnect between their cap # and their importance to the team. I used the "Dead Money" figure from the spotrac link above to determine how much they'd cost us against the cap.

Then, I "signed" Levitre using Carl Nicks' contract as a guidepost (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/carl-nicks/) but I flipped year 1 and 2 so the big cap hit would land next season. Then I "signed" Jairus Byrd using Antrel Rolle's contract as a guidepost (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/antrel-rolle/) because this link pulled from the Zone (http://www.profootballcentral.com/2013/02/18/bills-to-offer-byrd-5-year-deal/) suggests that a 5 year 38 million deal would do it. Rolle's was for 37 million, but that doesn't change much. That leaves us with this:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bxns5lStfQlSU2ZzWFA2U1Rkdms/edit?usp=sharing


So after dumping the dead weight, if we structure Levitre's contract the way I suggested, we are left with $18 million. Why so much? Because if I'm reading spotrac right, cutting Kelsay saves $4.1 million AND WHY ISN'T NIX CUTTING HIM RIGHT THIS MOMENT? Add $2.7 million from Smith and roughly 750000 from Fitz and Lindell and it largely negates the effect of signing Levitre and Byrd.

So what next? I took this mock draft from our own BuffaloBillsDraft.com (http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/12/2013-nfl-mock-draft-matt-elder-1231/). After subbing in Keenan Allen for our first pick, which assumed that we would not sign Levitre, I took the subsequent two and gave them the contracts that the guys drafted in their slot in 2012 would have had, leaving this:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bxns5lStfQlSTzd1OHplNXhPdms/edit?usp=sharing

That leaves us with $14 million and 3 picks and the following roster (obvious camp fodder and practice squaddies omitted)

QB: Tarvaris Jackson, Zac Dysert
RB: CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson
WR: Steve Johnson, Keenan Allen, TJ Graham, Kobi Hamilton, Marcus Easley
TE: Scott Chandler, Lee Smith
OT: Cordy Glenn, Erik Pears, Chris Hairson
OG: Andy Levitre, Kraig Urbik
C: Eric Wood, Colin Brown

DT: Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Alex Carrington
DE: Mario Williams, Mark Anderson
LB: Arthur Moats, Kelvin Sheppard, Chris White, Nigel Bradham
CB: Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams, Ron Brooks, Justin Rogers
S: DaNorris Searcy, Jairus Byrd, Mana Silva

K: (UDFA - Used John Powell's contract as a guide)
P: Shawn Powell
LS: Garrison Sanborn
KR, PR: Justin Rogers

So we need warm bodies to fill the remaining positions. I think it can be done.

Anyway, I'm no mathmetologist, so I'll let you guys tear it apart.

[jamze132]

I'm not sure what OBD sees in Kelsay.

[OLDSRIP]

Nice job op, interesting.
as for Kelsey. Isn't he still rehabbing from an injury? If so he can't be cut unless a injury settlement is made.
if they wait until he is cleared to play they can cut him without the injury settlement. Maybe that is what is going on.

[Pinkerton Security]

Nice breakdown...this shows why we can have our cake (Byrd) and eat it too (Levitre)

[DynaPaul]

Kelsay has naked pictures of Ralph Wilson with a tranny.

[Night Train]

After watching good teams like San Fran go thru tryouts for kickers constantly, I never understand the dislike for Lindell.

He and Christie have been,by far, our best kickers ever. Still accurate. Eventually, I understand the move but why create that hole now ?

[better days]

After watching good teams like San Fran go thru tryouts for kickers constantly, I never understand the dislike for Lindell.

He and Christie have been,by far, our best kickers ever. Still accurate. Eventually, I understand the move but why create that hole now ?

Despite the missed kick in the first Super Bowl, Norwood was a MUCH better kicker than Lindell. Aside from him, Pete Gogolak was a MUCH better kicker than Lindell.

[better days]

After watching good teams like San Fran go thru tryouts for kickers constantly, I never understand the dislike for Lindell.

He and Christie have been,by far, our best kickers ever. Still accurate. Eventually, I understand the move but why create that hole now ?

The reason to get rid of Lindell now is he can't be trusted to kick a FG past 40 yds & he can't kick into the end zone on kickoffs.

[Bert102176]

I'm not sure what OBD sees in Kelsay.

Maybe he does for them what their wives won't do

[IlluminatusUIUC]

After watching good teams like San Fran go thru tryouts for kickers constantly, I never understand the dislike for Lindell.

He and Christie have been,by far, our best kickers ever. Still accurate. Eventually, I understand the move but why create that hole now ?

I don't hate Lindell, but his contract is not in line with what he brings to the table any more. Time defeats all men, sadly. Maybe Gailey was wrong, and he still has the leg, but I still think year 1 is hte best time to unload these contracts. By year too, a ton of dead money comes off the cap to cover for the Levitre cap hit I moved into year 2.

[mikemac2001]

The reason to get rid of Lindell now is he can't be trusted to kick a FG past 40 yds & he can't kick into the end zone on kickoffs.


i agree with him being cut

but u cant blame a guy for a coach not giving him a shot

and when he gave him a shot for a meaningless long fg i believe he made it (forgot which game but i remember how it made no sense)

id rather have a younger leg and find a kicker for the next 4-5 years then hang on to lindell

[YardRat]

I haven't delved into the numbers, but realism would dictate that Levitre isn't going to sign that kind of contract, and even if he did you're not going to fill out the rest of the roster (15 players?) with the money left.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I haven't delved into the numbers, but realism would dictate that Levitre isn't going to sign that kind of contract,

Why not? I based it on Nicks, and he's the highest paid guard in football. If anything I thought I shot high.


and even if he did you're not going to fill out the rest of the roster (15 players?) with the money left.

I just wanted to highlight the starting roster we'd be throwing out there. I neglected to add Zebrie Sanders and Torell Troup. The rest of those guys would be filled with our three remaining draft picks, our practice squad (we have 54 guys under contract in that final scenario before the draft even ends), and other free agents. Year one is tough on purpose because I'm cutting dead weight and eating the cap penalty as early as possible. In year two a crapton of that money comes off the cap, so it accomodates Levitre's cap bump while also opening us up to spend in that offseason if we choose.

Unless you think the Bills are poised to be a contender in 2013, my plan would be better in the long run. Keep our talent, unload bad deals and poise us to be aggressive the year after.

[YardRat]

Why not? I based it on Nicks, and he's the highest paid guard in football. If anything I thought I shot high.



I just wanted to highlight the starting roster we'd be throwing out there. I neglected to add Zebrie Sanders and Torell Troup. The rest of those guys would be filled with our three remaining draft picks, our practice squad (we have 54 guys under contract in that final scenario before the draft even ends), and other free agents. Year one is tough on purpose because I'm cutting dead weight and eating the cap penalty as early as possible. In year two a crapton of that money comes off the cap, so it accomodates Levitre's cap bump while also opening us up to spend in that offseason if we choose.

Unless you think the Bills are poised to be a contender in 2013, my plan would be better in the long run. Keep our talent, unload bad deals and poise us to be aggressive the year after.

So your strategy is basically to sign Levitre so we can gut the rest of the roster and suck. Sounds like a plan, I guess...

[The Jokeman]

Despite the missed kick in the first Super Bowl, Norwood was a MUCH better kicker than Lindell. Aside from him, Pete Gogolak was a MUCH better kicker than Lindell.

and Gary Anderson was better than all three of them combined. A damn shame we let him go.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

So your strategy is basically to sign Levitre so we can gut the rest of the roster and suck. Sounds like a plan, I guess...

Did you actually read anything I wrote or look at any of the spreadsheets? If you consider dumping Fitz, Kelsay, Smith, and Lindell "gut[ting] the rest of the roster" then I've gotta ask what team you've been watching the last few years.

Their contracts are horrible and it's time to pay the piper. Cut them now and eat the cap penalties this year. You can still easily sign Byrd and Levitre if their contracts are structured well so you don't let your talent walk and in 2014 you have a ton of cap room to work with.

Let me flip the questions on you: Who should we chase if we let Levitre walk? How would they make the team better? The only free agent I'd be willing to let Levitre walk for is Flacco.

[X-Era]

Kelsay has naked pictures of Ralph Wilson with a tranny.

Doesn't turn me on...

16287

[JoeMama]

I'm not sure what OBD sees in Kelsay.

He's some kind of sorcerer and cast a spell on OBD.

There's no other explanation for how that guy sticks around.

[better days]

Doesn't turn me on...

16287

Well, you're obviously not a gear head.

[DynaPaul]

Doesn't turn me on...
16287


LOL. The kind of tranny I mean is a he-she with a pee-pee!

[YardRat]

Did you actually read anything I wrote or look at any of the spreadsheets? If you consider dumping Fitz, Kelsay, Smith, and Lindell "gut[ting] the rest of the roster" then I've gotta ask what team you've been watching the last few years.

Their contracts are horrible and it's time to pay the piper. Cut them now and eat the cap penalties this year. You can still easily sign Byrd and Levitre if their contracts are structured well so you don't let your talent walk and in 2014 you have a ton of cap room to work with.

Let me flip the questions on you: Who should we chase if we let Levitre walk? How would they make the team better? The only free agent I'd be willing to let Levitre walk for is Flacco.

Sure I did, although I haven't gotten to really crunching the numbers on your spreadsheets.

QB: Tarvaris Jackson, Zac Dysert
RB: CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson
WR: Steve Johnson, Keenan Allen, TJ Graham, Kobi Hamilton, Marcus Easley
TE: Scott Chandler, Lee Smith
OT: Cordy Glenn, Erik Pears, Chris Hairson
OG: Andy Levitre, Kraig Urbik
C: Eric Wood, Colin Brown

DT: Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Alex Carrington
DE: Mario Williams, Mark Anderson
LB: Arthur Moats, Kelvin Sheppard, Chris White, Nigel Bradham
CB: Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams, Ron Brooks, Justin Rogers
S: DaNorris Searcy, Jairus Byrd, Mana Silva

K: (UDFA - Used John Powell's contract as a guide)
P: Shawn Powell
LS: Garrison Sanborn
KR, PR: Justin Rogers

That, IMO, is a gutted roster, with at least 15 spots to fill, which you want to do with guys on the level of Cordero Howard and Mansfield Wrotto, who you've already used as an example of ****ty waiver-wire talent. Yet you want at least 15 more just like them, and that's not even including the half-dozen or so listed above that already qualify for that label.

I'm certainly not against cutting the four vets you mentioned above by any stretch, but instead of putting it in one guy's pocket I'd much rather see it spent more wisely on more positions in need of upgrading.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Sure I did, although I haven't gotten to really crunching the numbers on your spreadsheets.

QB: Tarvaris Jackson, Zac Dysert
RB: CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson
WR: Steve Johnson, Keenan Allen, TJ Graham, Kobi Hamilton, Marcus Easley
TE: Scott Chandler, Lee Smith
OT: Cordy Glenn, Erik Pears, Chris Hairson
OG: Andy Levitre, Kraig Urbik
C: Eric Wood, Colin Brown

DT: Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Alex Carrington
DE: Mario Williams, Mark Anderson
LB: Arthur Moats, Kelvin Sheppard, Chris White, Nigel Bradham
CB: Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams, Ron Brooks, Justin Rogers
S: DaNorris Searcy, Jairus Byrd, Mana Silva

K: (UDFA - Used John Powell's contract as a guide)
P: Shawn Powell
LS: Garrison Sanborn
KR, PR: Justin Rogers

That, IMO, is a gutted roster, with at least 15 spots to fill, which you want to do with guys on the level of Cordero Howard and Mansfield Wrotto, who you've already used as an example of ****ty waiver-wire talent. Yet you want at least 15 more just like them, and that's not even including the half-dozen or so listed above that already qualify for that label.

I used Howard and Wrotto as examples of ****ty waiver wire talent that we tried to plug in as starters. What sort of guys do you expect us to bring in to be the #9 and #10 OL on the depth chart? I have no problem with guys like Howard and Wrotto taking cheap deals to be deep depth, the problem is in assuming that they are plug and play with Levitre-caliber players. FWIW, I only listed the guys I thought would be key on the gameday roster (neglecting two), not every one on the team. Indeed at the end of the day we'd have 50 guys under contract. This would be a list of every player we'd have following my moves:

QB: Jackson, Dysert
HB: Spiller, Jackson, Zach Brown
FB:
WR: Johnson, Allen, Graham, Hamilton, Easley, Chris Hogan, Kevin Eliott
TE: Chandler, Smith, Joe Sawyer
OT: Glenn, Young, Welch, Pears, Hairson, Sanders
OG: Levitre, Urbik
C: Wood, Brown

DE: Anderson, Williams, Corbin Bryant
DT: Carrington, Williams, Dareus, Troup, Jarron Gilbert, Jay Ross
LB: Moats, Sheppard, White, Bradham, Greg Lloyd
CB: Gilmore, Williams, Rogers, Brooks, Crezdon Butler, TJ Heath
S: Searcy, Silva, Byrd

K:
LS: Sanborn
P: Powell

And we'd still have $14 million and 3 picks to build on that. That's a solid and deep OLine, an excellent DL, a young WR corps with promise, Dysert as the potential QB of the future, etc.

Note that I'm not pretending those are the ideal first three picks either, I just threw names out there. We could swap Keenan Allen for Dion Jordan or Manti Teo and then use the dirt cheap 3rd round tender on David Nelson and Kyle Moore.

This isn't meant to be an opening day roster, just a demonstration that Byrd and Levitre aren't prohibitively expensive given our situation, and that if we clean things up now, we can have a young and talented roster + a great deal of cap coming into 2014.


I'm certainly not against cutting the four vets you mentioned above by any stretch, but instead of putting it in one guy's pocket I'd much rather see it spent more wisely on more positions in need of upgrading.

On who? I'm willing to explore that option, but I don't know who you are suggesting we chase.

At the end of the day, yeah that roster has got some holes. But what were you expecting half an offseason removed from a 6-10 team that was bottom 10 in offense and defense?

[YardRat]

I used Howard and Wrotto as examples of ****ty waiver wire talent that we tried to plug in as starters.

They were plugged in as starters because the #1's got hurt, and that's the ****ty depth we had at the time. Do you really want to return to that kind of roster?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

They were plugged in as starters because the #1's got hurt, and that's the ****ty depth we had at the time. Do you really want to return to that kind of roster?

That's not even a complete roster, and it's only for 2013. I ask again, what did you expect our roster to look like after one off season when we started bottom 10 on both sides of the ball?

The contract I used for Levitre has only a $3.07 million cap hit in the first year. Who is that preventing us from signing?

[YardRat]

That's not even a complete roster, and it's only for 2013. I ask again, what did you expect our roster to look like after one off season when we started bottom 10 on both sides of the ball?

The contract I used for Levitre has only a $3.07 million cap hit in the first year. Who is that preventing us from signing?

C'mon, Lumy...Do you really expect Levitre to sign for peanuts in year 1? It isn't happening. Nice in theory, and on paper it might work, but the guy isn't looking to get paid next season he's looking to get paid now.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

C'mon, Lumy...Do you really expect Levitre to sign for peanuts in year 1? It isn't happening. Nice in theory, and on paper it might work, but the guy isn't looking to get paid next season he's looking to get paid now.

That's his cap hit, not his takehome pay. The cap hit from a signing bonus is spread over the deal. If you give a guy a $5 million dollar bonus on a 5 year contract, the bonus counts for $1 million of cap room each year but the actual physical dollars all change hands immediately. So if we took Nicks' deal, it has a $12 million dollar signing bonus on a 5 year deal, but in year two his actual salary is only ~$700,000. So if we made that year one, Levitre would count for $3 million in cap but actually take home $12.75 million that year.

[kishoph]

I may not agree with your choice for our 1st pick, but none the less, nice work. :10:

[YardRat]

That's his cap hit, not his takehome pay. The cap hit from a signing bonus is spread over the deal. If you give a guy a $5 million dollar bonus on a 5 year contract, the bonus counts for $1 million of cap room each year but the actual physical dollars all change hands immediately. So if we took Nicks' deal, it has a $12 million dollar signing bonus on a 5 year deal, but in year two his actual salary is only ~$700,000. So if we made that year one, Levitre would count for $3 million in cap but actually take home $12.75 million that year.

I understand the cap, but Levitre isn't going to push a bulky first year salary off for a season when he can get it now.

[justasportsfan]

I think the bills would rather keep Byrd. Levitre is most likely gone

[better days]

I understand the cap, but Levitre isn't going to push a bulky first year salary off for a season when he can get it now.

Players do that all the time. He still gets his money the first year. It is called a bonus rather than a salary, but the money is in the bank.

[venis2k1]

and Levitres cap hit in 2014?

15 Million, then 10 million annually...for a guard.

Clearly it makes sense to screw this team on a bad contract for years to come so that we squeeze Levitre under the cap for the 2013(superbowl) season.

And thats assuming Levitre would do it(i doubt he would) 26 year old stud players dont generally seek out back loaded contracts.

Nice job thinking outside the box, but think of the cap next year.(Levitre on the books for 15 million and we will want to resign Wood)

[venis2k1]

Not to mention Marios cap hit next year is 18.4 million. combine that with 15 million for Levitre, and thats at least 25% of our total cap, on two non impact players.(i guess thats an argument for another day)(also i understand the cap goes up alot in that year because of the new tv deal, but almost all of that money is already promised to Mario) If Nix did that to us then resigned, i would personally burn his house to the ground.

Look, I love Andy Levitre. He is one of my favorite Bills. But doing something like this is down right irresponsible. If we let Levitre walk, this time next year we will be resigning wood AND working out a long term deal with Spiller....or we can be a 5-11 team up against the cap wall.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Not to mention Marios cap hit next year is 18.4 million. combine that with 15 million for Levitre, and thats at least 25% of our total cap, on two non impact players.(i guess thats an argument for another day)(also i understand the cap goes up alot in that year because of the new tv deal, but almost all of that money is already promised to Mario) If Nix did that to us then resigned, i would personally burn his house to the ground.

Look, I love Andy Levitre. He is one of my favorite Bills. But doing something like this is down right irresponsible. If we let Levitre walk, this time next year we will be resigning wood AND working out a long term deal with Spiller....or we can be a 5-11 team up against the cap wall.

Well, what kind of contract do you think Wood would get? If it's a reasonable deal, it would fit under the cap even with Levitre's backloaded year, because of the dead money coming off the books. If Wood wants a top 10 or top 5 center contract, then I am more than happy to let him get it elsewhere. The guy is a fine player but can't stay healthy. If I had to dole out a large contract on the line, Wood would be my 3rd choice behind Levitre and Glenn.

[venis2k1]

I suppose that is the basis of our disagreement. I understand why you would hold Eric Woods injury history against him, he has never played a full nfl season.(im sure we can both agree that this has nothing to do with toughness, him playing through injury at the end of last year was epic) And why pay a guy if you cant count on him physically? Its a very valid argument. But when healthy I think wood is MUCH more important to this team than Levitre is. If I had a gun against my head and had to pick keeping one or the other? I would pick Wood in a heart beat. Would prolly make an interesting poll here at billszone. Also, bringing up Glenn is pointless at this juncture...he is still a rookie for petes sake.

[venis2k1]

And i would expect Woods contract to be in the area of 4 - 5 million per.

[better days]

And i would expect Woods contract to be in the area of 4 - 5 million per.

Even with his injury history, if Woods can stay healthy next season, I would bet his next contract is north of $5 Million.

[YardRat]

Players do that all the time. He still gets his money the first year. It is called a bonus rather than a salary, but the money is in the bank.

Than the up-front money (bonus) is going to be higher. A lot. That makes the cap hit larger for every year of the contract.

[YardRat]

I wouldn't have any issues getting rid of both Levitre and Wood. Eric can't stay healthy, and both struggle with anchoring and getting any real push off the snap.

[cookie G]

I wouldn't have any issues getting rid of both Levitre and Wood. Eric can't stay healthy, and both struggle with anchoring and getting any real push off the snap.

Well, Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston probably aren't doing anything these days. We could always get them back.

[BillsFever21]

Whether we kept Levitre or not I don't understand how some of you call cutting the likes of Kelsay, Smith and Fitzpatrick "gutting the roster" and causing harm to the team. Fitzpatrick is junk and Kelsay and Brad Smith hasn't been worth a damn for years. The only one that might make sense to keep is Lindell but even he is towards the end of his road.

Even if we do let Levitre walk I would cut them guys in a second without thinking twice. They are dead weight getting paid a pretty big chunk of money for what they contribute.

- - - Updated - - -

Whether we kept Levitre or not I don't understand how some of you call cutting the likes of Kelsay, Smith and Fitzpatrick "gutting the roster" and causing harm to the team. Fitzpatrick is junk and Kelsay and Brad Smith hasn't been worth a damn for years. The only one that might make sense to keep is Lindell but even he is towards the end of his road.

Even if we do let Levitre walk I would cut them guys in a second without thinking twice. They are dead weight getting paid a pretty big chunk of money for what they contribute.