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View Full Version : Bills players performance based value vs. salary



X-Era
02-25-2013, 03:50 PM
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/25/performance-based-value-buffalo-bills/

"• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)"

Here's some analytics at play...

Byrd, Spiller, and Levitre top the undervalued. Check out the write up on Spiller:

"2. C.J. Spiller, Running Back
They don’t get much more elusive than Spiller. He turned his 207 rushes into 1,244 yards largely because of his ability to turn a little into a lot. That’s why his 2012 Elusive Rating (https://www.profootballfocus.com/about/pff-signature-stats/#ElusiveRating)(94.6) was the best we’ve ever recorded. A threat every time he touched the ball and a snip at costing the Bills $3.5m of their cap.
2012 Cap Hit: $3.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $9.9m
Value Differential: +$6.4m"

Coastal should enjoy that Mario is considered overvalued. Also lists Kelsay as overvalued... So Russ, do you plan to actually use analytics or not?

"1. Mario Williams, Defensive End
There have been plenty of excuses made for Williams; a new scheme and injuries chief among them. But the truth is he didn’t actually play all that badly, finishing the year 17th overall in our defensive end rankings. That was ahead of guys like Julius Peppers and Jared Allen. It’s just expectations were so high based on the hype and salary he had commanded, and unfortunately he was unable to live up to them.
2012 Cap Hit: $9.8m
2012 Performance Based Value: $3m
Value Differential: -$6.8m"

"2. Chris Kelsay*, Defensive End
This is a little tough on Kelsay who would miss seven games of the season (and a large part of another). While he was on the field he had some problems generating pressure, with only his outing against a horrible Cardinals set of tackles helping him pad his stats. He would have had a lot of trouble making his cap hit even if he played a full year.
2012 Cap Hit: $4.8m
2012 Performance Based Value: $925k
Value Differential: -$3.8m"

jimmifli
02-25-2013, 04:58 PM
I can only assume that Kelsay's performance based value is a projection at his ability to sell insurance, or some other non-football related skill.

IlluminatusUIUC
02-25-2013, 05:07 PM
Mario would have needed a JJ Watt season to justify that deal on a straight dollar for dollar basis.

JoeMama
02-25-2013, 05:11 PM
Mario would have needed a JJ Watt season to justify that deal on a straight dollar for dollar basis.

JJ Watt may look like Sloth from The Goonies but he sure can play.

YardRat
02-25-2013, 06:44 PM
He wasn’t bad by any stretch and finished the year our ninth-ranked guard, but we’d have liked to have seen more from him in the run game (where he earned a negative grade).

Go ahead and pony up top dollar for Levitre...he'll be ahead of Mario on this list in February of 2014.

venis2k1
02-25-2013, 07:29 PM
So if Marios 10.5 sacks are worth 3.0 million he would have needed 35.3 sacks to justify his salary this year. His cap number is gonna be 18 million next year, im not sure he can give us a 70 sack year to justify his salary...clearly fools gold.

X-Era
02-25-2013, 08:03 PM
He wasn’t bad by any stretch and finished the year our ninth-ranked guard, but we’d have liked to have seen more from him in the run game (where he earned a negative grade).

Go ahead and pony up top dollar for Levitre...he'll be ahead of Mario on this list in February of 2014.
I'd like to keep him. But not at 7-8 mill a year... for a G.

I'll be fine if they do keep him. But, I think we really should think about spending that money in other places.