What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

[mjt328]

After reading several posts on this board (both pro and against Buddy Nix), I was curious what Bills fans consider a "successful" draft or offseason - in terms of acquiring talent and fixing holes.


In my personal opinion, a successful draft (7 rounds plus undrafted free agents) will net at least 3 players that could start for most NFL teams.
A successful free agency will net a positive upgrade of at least 1 starting position. So if a team loses a starter through free agency, they need to upgrade 2 other positions to consider that offseason successful.

By these standards, a team should be able to upgrade 4 starting spots per season. That doesn't sound like a huge amount. But within 3 years, a GM would have improved more than half of the players on his team. By the time those drafted rookies are hitting the wall (27-28 years old), the GM would have upgraded every single spot on the team.



In grading Buddy Nix, I look at what the Bills had in 2010 - when he was promoted to the position. At the time, I felt that Buffalo had 11 starting spots that needed to be seriously upgraded:
QB (Edwards), WR2 (Hardy/Parrish), TE (Nelson), LT (Bell), RT (None-Was Butler), C (Hangartner), LDE (Kelsay), RDE (Maybin), SLB (Ellison), CB (McKelvin)

Three full offseasons later, I believe we now have 8 starting spots that need to seriously be upgraded:
QB (Fitz), WR2 (Graham), LDE (Kelsay/Anderson), OLB (Bradham), OLB (None-Was Barnett), MLB (Sheppard), CB (Williams/McKelvin), FS (None-Was Wilson)

Of course, this assumes we bring back Byrd and Levitre. It also assumes that our young players like Dareus, Glenn and Gilmore develop into good players and don't create bigger holes.



Bottom line, our team will never get better until Nix starts drafting better.

[X-Era]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

After reading several posts on this board (both pro and against Buddy Nix), I was curious what Bills fans consider a "successful" draft or offseason - in terms of acquiring talent and fixing holes.


In my personal opinion, a successful draft (7 rounds plus undrafted free agents) will net at least 3 players that could start for most NFL teams.
A successful free agency will net a positive upgrade of at least 1 starting position. So if a team loses a starter through free agency, they need to upgrade 2 other positions to consider that offseason successful.

By these standards, a team should be able to upgrade 4 starting spots per season. That doesn't sound like a huge amount. But within 3 years, a GM would have improved more than half of the players on his team. By the time those drafted rookies are hitting the wall (27-28 years old), the GM would have upgraded every single spot on the team.



In grading Buddy Nix, I look at what the Bills had in 2010 - when he was promoted to the position. At the time, I felt that Buffalo had 11 starting spots that needed to be seriously upgraded:
QB (Edwards), WR2 (Hardy/Parrish), TE (Nelson), LT (Bell), RT (None-Was Butler), C (Hangartner), LDE (Kelsay), RDE (Maybin), SLB (Ellison), CB (McKelvin)

Three full offseasons later, I believe we now have 8 starting spots that need to seriously be upgraded:
QB (Fitz), WR2 (Graham), LDE (Kelsay/Anderson), OLB (Bradham), OLB (None-Was Barnett), MLB (Sheppard), CB (Williams/McKelvin), FS (None-Was Wilson)

Of course, this assumes we bring back Byrd and Levitre. It also assumes that our young players like Dareus, Glenn and Gilmore develop into good players and don't create bigger holes.



Bottom line, our team will never get better until Nix starts drafting better.

A well thought out post. I like it.

However, I don't agree.

I feel in most drafts you should be able to get 2 players who can start and play at least solid in their first 2 years in the league. 3 solid starters, in their first 2 years, out of every draft, is pushing it. And to me, getting 3 solid day one starters out of every draft is very unlikely.

I can't think of a team off the top of my head who has netted 3 or more solid starters from every draft over the past 3 years... There could be one but I can't think of one.

I agree that we should be getting 1 solid starter or even 2 from every FA.

So, using my numbers, Nix is doing what he should be. I consider Dareus, Gilmore, and certainly Spiller as solid starters. He also got Glenn, and IMO Hairston as solid starters. Now, I personally feel like Rogers and Williams are solid Nickel DB's. No, Williams is not a #2 CB. But I think he is solid enough to start in the Nickel package as either a DB or FS.

FA is where Nix has done well. You didn't mention keeping our own which is fine. But, he signed several solid players Nelson, Barnett, Pears, Urbik, Florence, Mario, and Chandler. You could even look at guys like Rhineheart and Kyle Moore.

To me, you're talking about 7 draftees that are solid at their positions and another 5 UFA's that have been solid during his tenure.

Let's not forget that Nix was here for the 2009 Wood, Levitre, and Byrd draft.

[YardRat]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Bottom line, our team will never get better until somebody starts coaching better.

Just IMO.

[lightningbolt444]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

I think we need two solid starters. The two great depth guys that can possibly turn into starters. I would be very happy with that. Of course everyone will point out we only got four players from the draft at the end of the season but I feel this would be a great draft for the team. Everyone needs to get over we could have drafted this guy in round 3 instead we drafted this guy. Fact remains teams miss more than they hit in the draft and every team has a chance and passed on elite guys in the league now it is just the way it is. The scouts dont have future career statistics for every guy so they make their best guess with the information they have.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

I feel in most drafts you should be able to get 2 players who can start and play at least solid in their first 2 years in the league. 3 solid starters, in their first 2 years, out of every draft, is pushing it. And to me, getting 3 solid day one starters out of every draft is very unlikely.

I can't think of a team off the top of my head who has netted 3 or more solid starters from every draft over the past 3 years... There could be one but I can't think of one.

Each of the last 3 years? None that I'm aware of, but there have been plenty of teams pulling in much better returns than us. San Fran did it 3 times in the last 6 drafts:
2007:
Willis
Staley
Goldson

2010:
Davis
Iupati
Bowman

2011:
Smith
Kaepernick
Culliver

Or Denver:
2010:
Thomas
Beadles
Decker

2011:
Miller
Moore
Franklin

2012 is obviously still out because Osweiler and Hillman are backups behind established vets, but Wolfe is an excellent DT.

So it's certainly possible. When you look at Nix, the guy has had 3 top 10 picks to work with. Getting a "solid starter" out of that should be the bare minimum of your expectations. And then you are crediting him for guys like Nelson, Barnett, and Florence, who have all left the team in less than 3 seasons. Nix' record is weak.

[Night Train]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Draft - Not reaching for needs if the players aren't there (see QB). Drafting actual blue chip talent.

Offseason - New coaching staff to be given a chance. Sign some quality FA's, prior to the draft.

[YardRat]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

When you consistently don't make the playoffs, every off-season is unsuccessful. When you do, it is.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Successful offseason in general, or what would make this a successful offseason?

If its the latter, well lets see:

Resign Byrd and Levitre. Bring in a couple journeymen qbs and an above average wr/te in free agency. Draft the best LB, DE, OL, TE, and DB in the draft's first five rounds and then get a qb in the later rounds. Ordinarily I'd say draft a qb, but this year's crop looks very weak and next year's looks better.

[Mski]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Draft - Not reaching for needs if the players aren't there (see QB). Drafting actual blue chip talent.

Offseason - New coaching staff to be given a chance. Sign some quality FA's, prior to the draft.

nix has done that - spiller, dareus, gilmore.... and he was blasted by alot of people on this board for the 1st one

[Jaybird]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

We can answer that questions IF we make the playoffs. Other then that no success!!!

[YardRat]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Just FYI, from the glory days...

'83-Kelly, Talley
'84-nobody
'85-Bruce, Reich, Garner, Reed
'86-Wolford
'87-Conlan, Odomes, Mitchell, Mueller, Seals, McKellar, Ballard (Biscuit doesn't really count, but...)
'88-Thurman, Wright, Bailey
'89-Beebe
'90-Williams, Gardner, Parker, Patton, Lodish, Edwards

Just from where they stood during the Super Bowl years (yes, eventually some of them like Patton and Lodish became starters), 12 solid starters in 8 drafts...11 depth players/back-ups (McKellar, Mitchell, Bailey started at times)...and roughly 60-70 good-sized whiffs. Even of the bolded, Wright was under-sized and a whipping boy for being replaced, Williams (James) was McKelvin and Williams (Aaron) way before their time.

Where the Bills really made their hay was in free agency and the waiver wire (helped tremendously of course by the demise of the USFL bu then again who wasn't) , copping cheap 'over the hill' vets like Lofton, and 'nobidies anybody ever heard of before' like Hull, John Davis, Kenny Davis, Tasker, Christie, Norwood, etc etc.

[mjt328]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

A well thought out post. I like it.

However, I don't agree.

I feel in most drafts you should be able to get 2 players who can start and play at least solid in their first 2 years in the league. 3 solid starters, in their first 2 years, out of every draft, is pushing it. And to me, getting 3 solid day one starters out of every draft is very unlikely.

I can't think of a team off the top of my head who has netted 3 or more solid starters from every draft over the past 3 years... There could be one but I can't think of one.

I agree that we should be getting 1 solid starter or even 2 from every FA.

So, using my numbers, Nix is doing what he should be. I consider Dareus, Gilmore, and certainly Spiller as solid starters. He also got Glenn, and IMO Hairston as solid starters. Now, I personally feel like Rogers and Williams are solid Nickel DB's. No, Williams is not a #2 CB. But I think he is solid enough to start in the Nickel package as either a DB or FS.

FA is where Nix has done well. You didn't mention keeping our own which is fine. But, he signed several solid players Nelson, Barnett, Pears, Urbik, Florence, Mario, and Chandler. You could even look at guys like Rhineheart and Kyle Moore.

To me, you're talking about 7 draftees that are solid at their positions and another 5 UFA's that have been solid during his tenure.

Let's not forget that Nix was here for the 2009 Wood, Levitre, and Byrd draft.

I think 3 starters from the draft is very doable, especially if you add undrafted free agents. Not necessarily Day One starters, but guys who can start over the long haul in their careers. First round picks (especially top 10 picks like we get) should be a slam dunk to at least get a starter.

For Nix, I believe CJ Spiller would be a starter on most NFL teams. As would Dareus. I think Cordy Glenn would be at least a guard on most squads. Gilmore is showing the potential. The rest have a long way to go.

For free agents, I believe it getting one positive upgrade per year. If you lose a free agent, you should replace him and upgrade at least one other spot. Signing your own should be a no brainer.

I agree that Nix has done better at this than the draft. In my opinion, the only solid starters that he's lost due to free agency were Poz and Whitner. Meanwhile, he replaced Poz with Barnett, added Mario and found some diamonds in the rough with Chandler, Pears and Urbik. That's +5 and -2. He's been right on point with my scale in this area.

[The Jokeman]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Assuming we franchise Byrd, to me this offseason has to bring in a starting QB, WR, and two LBs to be deemed successful in my eyes. I'd also like to come away with a spot starter/above average backup TE to help carry this team towards the goal of making the playoffs in 2014. Also we can't afford to make a big hole at on the O-line specifically at LG. All I'm asking for whomever mans the spot to be average.

[mjt328]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

Adding to my post above...
Even during the notoriously poor drafting era of Levy/Brandon/Jauron, we were able to add three solid starters through the draft/undrafted free agency in 3 out of 4 years.


2006 - Donte Whitner (solid), Kyle Williams (Pro Bowler), Brad Butler (solid until early retirement), Ko Simpson (solid until injuries)

2007 - Marshawn Lynch (Pro Bowler), Poz (solid), Fred Jackson (undrafted - solid)

2008 - Stevie Johnson (solid)

2009 - Wood, Byrd and Levitre (all solid)

[Extremebillsfan247]

Re: What is considered a successful draft/offseason?

After reading several posts on this board (both pro and against Buddy Nix), I was curious what Bills fans consider a "successful" draft or offseason - in terms of acquiring talent and fixing holes.


In my personal opinion, a successful draft (7 rounds plus undrafted free agents) will net at least 3 players that could start for most NFL teams.
A successful free agency will net a positive upgrade of at least 1 starting position. So if a team loses a starter through free agency, they need to upgrade 2 other positions to consider that offseason successful.

By these standards, a team should be able to upgrade 4 starting spots per season. That doesn't sound like a huge amount. But within 3 years, a GM would have improved more than half of the players on his team. By the time those drafted rookies are hitting the wall (27-28 years old), the GM would have upgraded every single spot on the team.



In grading Buddy Nix, I look at what the Bills had in 2010 - when he was promoted to the position. At the time, I felt that Buffalo had 11 starting spots that needed to be seriously upgraded:
QB (Edwards), WR2 (Hardy/Parrish), TE (Nelson), LT (Bell), RT (None-Was Butler), C (Hangartner), LDE (Kelsay), RDE (Maybin), SLB (Ellison), CB (McKelvin)

Three full offseasons later, I believe we now have 8 starting spots that need to seriously be upgraded:
QB (Fitz), WR2 (Graham), LDE (Kelsay/Anderson), OLB (Bradham), OLB (None-Was Barnett), MLB (Sheppard), CB (Williams/McKelvin), FS (None-Was Wilson)

Of course, this assumes we bring back Byrd and Levitre. It also assumes that our young players like Dareus, Glenn and Gilmore develop into good players and don't create bigger holes.



Bottom line, our team will never get better until Nix starts drafting better.

This team is in pretty bad shape. Believe it or not, it's a couple of bad draft picks away from being a blockbuster disaster film. I think this team's biggest mistake wasn't in hiring Marrone, but retaining Nix as a GM. He is too grounded in his own philosophy to evolve with the rest of this team, and it's holding them back. He should have been fired right after the Bills season was over in 2012. But whats really amazing to me is that there are some old hats like Littmann and Overdorf who are still employed by this team. How that is even possible is mind numbing to me. These 2 are the true thorns in this teams side. You can't expect to change when your not fully committed to that change. The Bills have failed in demonstrating that at least to me by keeping these 2 knuckleheads around for far too long. But that's my opinion. Maybe it's a little too much for this thread, but I felt the need to vent some frustration. Carry on..