Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

[IlluminatusUIUC]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/lewin-career-forecast-2013

There are seven variables involved in the Lewin Career Forecast:

• Career college games started
• Career completion rate. Because of recent rises in completion rate across college football, this is a logarithmic variable, so that as a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.
• Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
• For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
• A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
• Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
• Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season

The projection number represents an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player's career. (DYAR, or Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, is explained here.) The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and you should avoid quarterbacks below zero.
Geno Smith, West Virginia: 2,064 DYAR
Matt Barkley, USC: 1,812 DYAR
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse: 1,506 DYAR
E.J. Manuel, Florida State: 1,270 DYAR
Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 425 DYAR
Tyler Bray, Tennessee: -201 DYAR
Mike Glennon, North Carolina State: -379 DYAR
Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYAR

Throwing it out there. Obviously their metrics don't account for intangibles, insofar as they don't show up on stat sheets. But their criterion are close to what I like in prospects - accuracy and experience.

[YardRat]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

They really don't like Glennon.

[YardRat]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

Well, this is kind of odd....

The LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict.

[better days]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

Well, Pat Kirwin said on Sirius today that Geno & Barkley will both be drafted high in the first rnd & another QB will probably be selected later in the first rnd. Anyone thinking the Bills can get a GOOD QB in the 2nd rnd is deluded.

[Homegrown]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

Well, Pat Kirwin said on Sirius today that Geno & Barkley will both be drafted high in the first rnd & another QB will probably be selected later in the first rnd. Anyone thinking the Bills can get a GOOD QB in the 2nd rnd is deluded.

How can one be deluded?

[Night Train]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

IF I LOOK AT THE QB'S LONG ENOUGH, THEY ARE BEAUTIFUL AND DREAMY !

[Don't Panic]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

Geno is the only one who has justified a top half of the first selection IMO. If anyone wants to reach in the bottom half of the first for one of the rest then so be it, but I don't see many teams in there with a pressing QB need. First 10-15 picks of the second are where a lot of QBs are going to gt drafted.... maybe as many as four.

[HAMMER]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

If Barkley is available at 8 and Buffalo passes, it will be lamented for the next 10 years.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

I'm all for taking Barkley at #8.

[fluteflakes]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

L-O-L at thinking Landry Jones is anything but a late round tools guy. His stats aren't telling of just how BAD of a player he is.

And what makes Barkley a good prospect, for US. Not in general, but for this team?

Not having the arm to throw in the Ralph any time past November? Having happy feet the second something touches him? Being over-hyped since his days at Mater Dei?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

L-O-L at thinking Landry Jones is anything but a late round tools guy. His stats aren't telling of just how BAD of a player he is.

I chopped a lot of the article so it would fit in the TOS, but their formula always gets a little screwy around guys like Jones. He's big and accurate and experienced, but it just doesn't quite know how to deal with his skittishness and choking under pressure. They put him in the "asterisk" column because his score is high but they still think he's a late rounder.

[fluteflakes]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

I really wouldn't even say he's accurate, on his intermediate throws yes, but anything past 20 yards and he can't hit the broad side of a barn. And yes, his worst issue, and one that will really take a couple of seasons of hard, hard coaching to fix, is his happy feet and atrocious pocket presence. He's skittish, and when the pocket goes his footwork and arm mechanics go to crap. I'v always called him a slower Blaine Gabbert, and I'm sticking with that.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

I really wouldn't even say he's accurate, on his intermediate throws yes, but anything past 20 yards and he can't hit the broad side of a barn.

He's accurate in the sense that he has a respectable 63.6 completion %, which is what they use in their formula.

And yes, his worst issue, and one that will really take a couple of seasons of hard, hard coaching to fix, is his happy feet and atrocious pocket presence. He's skittish, and when the pocket goes his footwork and arm mechanics go to crap. I'v always called him a slower Blaine Gabbert, and I'm sticking with that.

Right, I'll just go ahead and quote Jones' section.

Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYA
The LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.

So here's Landry Jones, who will rank with the fourth-highest projection ever -- unless he doesn't get taken in the first three rounds. This time, we can't use excuses like we did with Russell Wilson. Jones has been starting at Oklahoma for four years and has prototype quarterback size. But scouts have pinned a number of red flags on him. He seems like the Colt McCoy of this year's class, although his issue isn't arm strength like McCoy's was. Jones has fine arm strength, but he's immobile and many scouts believe he wilts under pressure. Issues with mechanics and footwork were often hidden by an Oklahoma spread offense that involved lots of quick-developing screen passes.


Perhaps some team will figure out a way to solve Jones' problems, grab him in the third round, and turn him into a quality NFL starter. Or he may drop to the fifth and be forgotten as just another college system quarterback-turned-NFL flop. It's just another example how, when it comes to picking future talent, even the most stat-oriented of us know that numbers complement scouting. They don't replace scouting.

[YardRat]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

I chopped a lot of the article so it would fit in the TOS, but their formula always gets a little screwy around guys like Jones. He's big and accurate and experienced, but it just doesn't quite know how to deal with his skittishness and choking under pressure. They put him in the "asterisk" column because his score is high but they still think he's a late rounder.

Thus the issue that will always be a problem for metrics and analytics.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

Thus the issue that will always be a problem for metrics and analytics.

True, but you're not supposed to turn your brain off and slavishly devote yourself to them.