Football Outsiders likes Smith, Barkley, Nassib, Manuel, Jones

[IlluminatusUIUC]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/lewin-career-forecast-2013


There are seven variables involved in the Lewin Career Forecast:


Career college games started
Career completion rate. Because of recent rises in completion rate across college football, this is a logarithmic variable, so that as a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.
Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season


The projection number represents an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player's career. (DYAR, or Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, is explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods).) The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and you should avoid quarterbacks below zero.
Geno Smith, West Virginia: 2,064 DYAR
Matt Barkley, USC: 1,812 DYAR
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse: 1,506 DYAR
E.J. Manuel, Florida State: 1,270 DYAR
Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 425 DYAR
Tyler Bray, Tennessee: -201 DYAR
Mike Glennon, North Carolina State: -379 DYAR
Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYAR
Throwing it out there. Obviously their metrics don't account for intangibles, insofar as they don't show up on stat sheets. But their criterion are close to what I like in prospects - accuracy and experience.

[YardRat]

They really don't like Glennon.

[YardRat]

Well, this is kind of odd....

The LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict.

[better days]

Well, Pat Kirwin said on Sirius today that Geno & Barkley will both be drafted high in the first rnd & another QB will probably be selected later in the first rnd. Anyone thinking the Bills can get a GOOD QB in the 2nd rnd is deluded.

[Homegrown]

Well, Pat Kirwin said on Sirius today that Geno & Barkley will both be drafted high in the first rnd & another QB will probably be selected later in the first rnd. Anyone thinking the Bills can get a GOOD QB in the 2nd rnd is deluded.

How can one be deluded?

[Night Train]

IF I LOOK AT THE QB'S LONG ENOUGH, THEY ARE BEAUTIFUL AND DREAMY ! :trance:

[Don't Panic]

Geno is the only one who has justified a top half of the first selection IMO. If anyone wants to reach in the bottom half of the first for one of the rest then so be it, but I don't see many teams in there with a pressing QB need. First 10-15 picks of the second are where a lot of QBs are going to gt drafted.... maybe as many as four.

[HAMMER]

If Barkley is available at 8 and Buffalo passes, it will be lamented for the next 10 years.

[Mr. Miyagi]

I'm all for taking Barkley at #8.

[fluteflakes]

L-O-L at thinking Landry Jones is anything but a late round tools guy. His stats aren't telling of just how BAD of a player he is.

And what makes Barkley a good prospect, for US. Not in general, but for this team?

Not having the arm to throw in the Ralph any time past November? Having happy feet the second something touches him? Being over-hyped since his days at Mater Dei?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

L-O-L at thinking Landry Jones is anything but a late round tools guy. His stats aren't telling of just how BAD of a player he is.

I chopped a lot of the article so it would fit in the TOS, but their formula always gets a little screwy around guys like Jones. He's big and accurate and experienced, but it just doesn't quite know how to deal with his skittishness and choking under pressure. They put him in the "asterisk" column because his score is high but they still think he's a late rounder.

[fluteflakes]

I really wouldn't even say he's accurate, on his intermediate throws yes, but anything past 20 yards and he can't hit the broad side of a barn. And yes, his worst issue, and one that will really take a couple of seasons of hard, hard coaching to fix, is his happy feet and atrocious pocket presence. He's skittish, and when the pocket goes his footwork and arm mechanics go to crap. I'v always called him a slower Blaine Gabbert, and I'm sticking with that.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I really wouldn't even say he's accurate, on his intermediate throws yes, but anything past 20 yards and he can't hit the broad side of a barn.

He's accurate in the sense that he has a respectable 63.6 completion %, which is what they use in their formula.


And yes, his worst issue, and one that will really take a couple of seasons of hard, hard coaching to fix, is his happy feet and atrocious pocket presence. He's skittish, and when the pocket goes his footwork and arm mechanics go to crap. I'v always called him a slower Blaine Gabbert, and I'm sticking with that.

Right, I'll just go ahead and quote Jones' section.

Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYA
The LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.

So here's Landry Jones, who will rank with the fourth-highest projection ever -- unless he doesn't get taken in the first three rounds. This time, we can't use excuses like we did with Russell Wilson (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/29720/russell-wilson). Jones has been starting at Oklahoma for four years and has prototype quarterback size. But scouts have pinned a number of red flags on him. He seems like the Colt McCoy (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/24307/colt-mccoy) of this year's class, although his issue isn't arm strength like McCoy's was. Jones has fine arm strength, but he's immobile and many scouts believe he wilts under pressure. Issues with mechanics and footwork were often hidden by an Oklahoma spread offense that involved lots of quick-developing screen passes.


Perhaps some team will figure out a way to solve Jones' problems, grab him in the third round, and turn him into a quality NFL starter. Or he may drop to the fifth and be forgotten as just another college system quarterback-turned-NFL flop. It's just another example how, when it comes to picking future talent, even the most stat-oriented of us know that numbers complement scouting. They don't replace scouting.

[YardRat]

I chopped a lot of the article so it would fit in the TOS, but their formula always gets a little screwy around guys like Jones. He's big and accurate and experienced, but it just doesn't quite know how to deal with his skittishness and choking under pressure. They put him in the "asterisk" column because his score is high but they still think he's a late rounder.

Thus the issue that will always be a problem for metrics and analytics.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Thus the issue that will always be a problem for metrics and analytics.

True, but you're not supposed to turn your brain off and slavishly devote yourself to them.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Why are people so high on Geno Smith? I've watched him play in multiple games, nothing special. He made a lot of the same mistakes these other QB's in the 2013 draft made in games. I don't understand the fascination, or what separates him from the rest of the group. Of course, you could bark out the fact that I'm not a scout, and so my opinion doesn't mean anything here. But you don't need to be a scout to see what is obvious.

[kishoph]

Why are people so high on Geno Smith? I've watched him play in multiple games, nothing special. He made a lot of the same mistakes these other QB's in the 2013 draft made in games. I don't understand the fascination, or what separates him from the rest of the group. Of course, you could bark out the fact that I'm not a scout, and so my opinion doesn't mean anything here. But you don't need to be a scout to see what is obvious.

I wonder this also, I know the kid has the physical talents, but can he handle the mental part of an NFL QB. I'm really not a WV fan so I can't say I've ever seen a complete game of theirs, but from what I have seen and have read, he seems to have problem with his mechanics and footwork, often throwing off his back foot. There's also a question of how he goes through progressions, if the 1st option isn't there. Then there is how he performed in bigger games against better competition. You can find flaws and inconsistencies in all the QB's in this draft, I just don't see Smith being that far ahead of the pack, in fact there are 2 or 3, I would select before him, but then again, I'm sitting at a desk at my house, not at OBD.

[Don't Panic]

Physically, I think he has everything he needs to be a top 10 QB.

Mentally is where I'm really impressed with him, though. The kid is highly intelligent. I think he has the mental acumen to learn to be a good QB. All he needs is a good teacher. That's not a knock on Holgorsen, just that he's going to need to learn a more complex system than what they used WVU. I think he has the ability to do that, especially if he has a year ( or part of it) behind Fitz or TJax.

All if this could be moot if Marrone doesn't see it in him, but I think he has the necessary package if skills ( physical and mental) to be more successful than anyone in this draft class. I wouldn't complain with him at #8. Definitely worth the 'gamble' at that spot.

[Yasgur's Farm]

The following link was shared over at billievers.com. It's an article from walterfootball which ranks these same top QB's in 8 categories...

http://walterfootball.com/draft2013positionreviewQB.php (http://walterfootball.com/draft2013positionreviewQB.php)

Here's my Summary based on a scale of 1-8 for each category... 8 being the best...
Smith - 54 - 84% - 1 x bottom 1/2 in category
Barkley - 44 - 69% - 2 x bottom 1/2 in category
Wilson - 43 - 67% - 1 x bottom 1/2 in category, 1 x last in category
Nassib - 40 - 63% - 3 x bottom 1/2 in category
Manuel - 32 - 50% - 5 x bottom 1/2 in category, 2 x last in category
Dysert - 29 - 45% - 5 x bottom 1/2 in category
Glennon - 28 - 44% - 6 x bottom 1/2 in category, 1 x last in category
Jones - 18 - 28% - 8 x bottom 1/2 in category, 4 x last in category

Interesting to note that this system puts Landry Jones dead last by a long shot.

Take it for what it's worth.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Why are people so high on Geno Smith? I've watched him play in multiple games, nothing special. He made a lot of the same mistakes these other QB's in the 2013 draft made in games. I don't understand the fascination, or what separates him from the rest of the group. Of course, you could bark out the fact that I'm not a scout, and so my opinion doesn't mean anything here. But you don't need to be a scout to see what is obvious.

Because he's very accurate and doesn't make dumb decisions that often, as emphasized by his staggeringly high completion % and low INTs.

[Yasgur's Farm]

I'm hoping Geno Smith falls to us at 8.

[kishoph]

I'm hoping Geno Smith falls to us at 8.

I heard on ESPN radio this morning that Smith was caught lying during the interviews at the combine, I don't know what it was about, but they believe that it could hurt his draft stock.

[YardRat]

My fearless prediction for today...Nix passes on QB's in both the first and second rounds, than pulls the trigger in the third on somebody that everybody has ranked as a 5th or 6th round prospect.

[better days]

My fearless prediction for today...Nix passes on QB's in both the first and second rounds, than pulls the trigger in the third on somebody that everybody has ranked as a 5th or 6th round prospect.


Just what we need, another mediocre QB to add to the LONG list of mediocre QBs since Kelly retired.

[fluteflakes]

My fearless prediction for today...Nix passes on QB's in both the first and second rounds, than pulls the trigger in the third on somebody that everybody has ranked as a 5th or 6th round prospect.

You forgot to add "southern" to that. Nix doesn't draft ANYBODY unless they're from the southeast. It's really really odd.

So hello Ryan Aplin!