On Dan Patrick today he said it was the Bills that drive the price up for Alex Smith

[PTI]

Well, is this good or bad? Would you have wanted Smith? This took KC out of the QB market in the first 3 rounds, likely first 4 rounds, they still could take one. Helped 49ers get two nice picks. I missed part of what he was saying, did not hear a source. Also said the Bills would likely be cutting Fitz now and taking Geno Smith, FWIW

[Mahdi]

Geno wouldn't get passed the Cardinals I don't think. Maybe even the Raiders.

[Skooby]

I think the Bills are primed to tradeback & pick up additional picks, the top draft picks aren't worth were they're at in any normal draft.

[Bangarang]

I think the Bills are primed to tradeback & pick up additional picks, the top draft picks aren't worth were they're at in any normal draft.

If the top draft picks aren't worth it then why would a team trade up and give up draft picks?

[Mr. Miyagi]

If one of the top tackles or DEs falls to us, we'd be in the position to trade back a few spots. That would be great if we could do that, use the extra pick to trade back up to the bottom of 1st and take one of the Nassib / Wilson / Barkley.

Otherwise I would have no problem staying put and taking either Barkley (reach) or a top LB and see which QB falls to us in the 2nd.

[Mahdi]

I think the Bills are primed to tradeback & pick up additional picks, the top draft picks aren't worth were they're at in any normal draft.

I would trade our 1st to the niners for their 31st pick plus both second rounders they have. That would have us picking at the end of the first, second overall in the second round, 9th and 31st.... Great way to build the roster with 4 picks in the top 64.

They use the 8th overall to select Dee Milliner or Jarvis Jones.

[Night Train]

If one of the top tackles or DEs falls to us, we'd be in the position to trade back a few spots. That would be great if we could do that, use the extra pick to trade back up to the bottom of 1st and take one of the Nassib / Wilson / Barkley.

Otherwise I would have no problem staying put and taking either Barkley (reach) or a top LB and see which QB falls to us in the 2nd.


If we lose Levitre and one of those 3 LT's falls to us, we better run to the podium and select one without even considering a QB or LB. Those 3 LT's are FAR better.

[Skooby]

If the top draft picks aren't worth it then why would a team trade up and give up draft picks?

I'll clarify in saying that our teams own needs look like they can be met in a latter part of the 1st round, other teams look to be able to use the help in the earlier part of the 1st round. There's no sure fire QB there & plenty of WR's to be had later in the round all with their own + / -'s, so that might give us the chance to tradeback if a solid T or QB is there. If the coaches / management love Geno & he's there, I'm not going to cry if they take him but I think Geno is going to be average at best. Barkley may have more upside but he played some shaky ball at certain points last season, we've seen enough of that on our team.

[DraftBoy]

Geno wouldn't get passed the Cardinals I don't think. Maybe even the Raiders.

Rumor is its Barkley and not Geno that won't get past Arizona.

[mjt328]

Well, I guess it should not surprise me. Our GM has no idea what he's doing. Especially at the quarterback position.

The Chiefs got absolutely raped on that trade. If the Bills drove up the price on Alex Smith, it tells me they were offering a pretty good deal to the 49ers as well. It completely blows my mind that Alex Smith was a free agent JUST LAST YEAR and nobody wanted him. Now - after a season where he was benched, he's worth a high 2nd round pick plus...

It's funny how the same teams are so eager to snatch up mediocre veteran quarterbacks, but refuse to draft them. We traded picks for Rob Johnson and extended Fitzpatrick. Kansas City has played around with Matt Cassel, Trent Green and countless others. The Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb. I've read that Arizona is interested in bringing in Cassel now. So it's completely conceivable that the top rated QB in the draft - Geno Smith - falls directly in our lap. And most likely we will pass on him in favor of reuniting the college powerhouse Syracuse Orangemen and drafting Nassib in the second. I can't think of a situation that screams Buffalo more than that.

The fact that Kansas City, Jacksonville and Arizona are trying to find other options (as opposed to drafting a quarterback high) should tell Buffalo that this quarterback class is going to be very good. None of those teams have any idea what they are doing either.

[Skooby]

Well, I guess it should not surprise me. Our GM has no idea what he's doing. Especially at the quarterback position.

The Chiefs got absolutely raped on that trade. If the Bills drove up the price on Alex Smith, it tells me they were offering a pretty good deal to the 49ers as well. It completely blows my mind that Alex Smith was a free agent JUST LAST YEAR and nobody wanted him. Now - after a season where he was benched, he's worth a high 2nd round pick plus...

It's funny how the same teams are so eager to snatch up mediocre veteran quarterbacks, but refuse to draft them. We traded picks for Rob Johnson and extended Fitzpatrick. Kansas City has played around with Matt Cassel, Trent Green and countless others. The Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb. I've read that Arizona is interested in bringing in Cassel now. So it's completely conceivable that the top rated QB in the draft - Geno Smith - falls directly in our lap. And most likely we will pass on him in favor of reuniting the college powerhouse Syracuse Orangemen and drafting Nassib in the second. I can't think of a situation that screams Buffalo more than that.

The fact that Kansas City, Jacksonville and Arizona are trying to find other options (as opposed to drafting a quarterback high) should tell Buffalo that this quarterback class is going to be very good. None of those teams have any idea what they are doing either.

Do you think Geno would make us a contender at any point in his career ?? The rest of your post is dead on but I think Nassib might be available with an extra 2nd round pick would could get by trading back, then it wouldn't sting to bring him in.

[PTI]

I think the Jags will let Gabbert and Henne compete and maybe get someone after round 3. Gabbert actually had a great preseason, and then was OK, but crapped the bed and got hurt.

[ServoBillieves]

Every year it's the same...

"Trade back for more picks, trade back, we'll trade back for 8 picks with 3 of ours..."

[Mahdi]

Every year it's the same...

"Trade back for more picks, trade back, we'll trade back for 8 picks with 3 of ours..."

That's why you use the value chart to get an idea of what picks are worth what in a trade...

[ServoBillieves]

I think the Jags will let Gabbert and Henne compete and maybe get someone after round 3. Gabbert actually had a great preseason, and then was OK, but crapped the bed and got hurt.

Henne did kind of surprise last year (compared to Gabbert), that's an interesting QB battle there.

[ServoBillieves]

That's why you use the value chart to get an idea of what picks are worth what in a trade...

Who do the 49ers need at 8 that they couldn't pick up from someone at any other place in the first? They were just in the Super Bowl. If they're in desperate need for that... what piece? They will trade picks, but I highly doubt it's with the Bills or for other picks.

[mjt328]

Do you think Geno would make us a contender at any point in his career ?? The rest of your post is dead on but I think Nassib might be available with an extra 2nd round pick would could get by trading back, then it wouldn't sting to bring him in.

In my opinion, Geno Smith is a very good quarterback prospect. Not perfect. Not exceptional. But I think he's a better prospect than Ryan Tannehill was last year, and despite what some say - I think he would be worth a Top 10 pick in pretty much any draft in the last 10-15 years.

If you break his production down over the last two years, Smith's per game stat line looks like this: 330 yards, 2.8 touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, 68.5 completion percentage, 8.26 yards per attempt.
He's got a very good arm and will have no problems making any NFL throw. He rarely throws into coverage and does a good job of scanning the field. My biggest complaint is that he doesn't get rid of the ball quick enough and his accuracy falls off when he gets pressured. But he's still better than most of the other 2013 prospects in that area.

I'm not a fan of Nassib at all. I think Smith is a superior prospect in every single category, especially accuracy.
And I also think it's a terrible idea to bring ANOTHER major piece of the Syracuse offense to our team. This is a college team that went 8-5 last year.

Is there a chance that Marrone turns out to be a good coach... Yes.
Is there a chance that Hackett turns out to be a good coordinator... Yes.
Is there a chance that Nassib turns out to be a good quarterback... Yes.

But the chances that ALL THREE work out in the NFL are extremely slim. Even if Syracuse had the best offense in college history, I wouldn't recommend bringing the HC, OC and QB to an NFL squad. It's a joke and would never work out.

[Mahdi]

Who do the 49ers need at 8 that they couldn't pick up from someone at any other place in the first? They were just in the Super Bowl. If they're in desperate need for that... what piece? They will trade picks, but I highly doubt it's with the Bills or for other picks.

The niners desperately need a cover corner. Rogers getting old and they have no one else really. Also lost Goldson which means they are very interested in adding a piece to their backfield.

If Milliner falls to us the Niners could be interested. You also have a need at OLB. Ahmad Brooks is good but I think he is better in a rotation. Getting a guy like Dion Jordan or Jarvis Jones would give them a real threat opposite Smith.

The only team that would trade multiple picks for one in the top 10 is a team that is looking to just get over the top and win the SB. They don't need all those picks because their team is loaded in most areas.

[better days]

Rumor is its Barkley and not Geno that won't get past Arizona.

And I am hearing rumors that Geno gets drafted by the Raiders.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

That's why you use the value chart to get an idea of what picks are worth what in a trade...

That value chart is worthless and has been rendered even moreso by the rookie cap.

[Mahdi]

That value chart is worthless and has been rendered even moreso by the rookie cap.

No the rookie cap only made the top 10 picks even more valuable because you aren't paying 25-50 mil for the player anymore. The picks still have relatively the same value.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

No the rookie cap only made the top 10 picks even more valuable because you aren't paying 25-50 mil for the player anymore. The picks still have relatively the same value.

No they don't and they never have. The picks change value based on the draft class. Last year's #2 pick was worth an enormous amount more than this year's #2.

[Mahdi]

No they don't and they never have. The picks change value based on the draft class. Last year's #2 pick was worth an enormous amount more than this year's #2.

However, it's all relative. You don't compare draft classes to value. The #1 pick in this draft may be weaker then last year's #1 but he is still considered to be that much more valuable than the #10. Its a relative comparison not a direct one. It doesn't work that way.

No matter what, the #1 overall pick is always that much more valuable than the #32 because as you go down the value board the value decreases. Each pick down the board is one less opportunity to choose the player you want. Hence the values are the same from draft to draft.

[mjt328]

A draft pick is only worth what another team will pay for it.

I agree with the person who said the trade chart is stupid. Washington overpaid for the #2 pick according to the trade chart. But they made out like bandits, because they ended up with a quarterback they can build the franchise around for the next 10-15 years (barring injury).

Every year, we hear the same thing - "we should trade down." You can go on message boards for every NFL team and 99 percent of the fans want to trade down.
But that requires two things: a team willing to trade up and fair compensation. There is no guarantee that anybody will offer that.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

However, it's all relative. You don't compare draft classes to value. The #1 pick in this draft may be weaker then last year's #1 but he is still considered to be that much more valuable than the #10. Its a relative comparison not a direct one. It doesn't work that way.

No matter what, the #1 overall pick is always that much more valuable than the #32 because as you go down the value board the value decreases. Each pick down the board is one less opportunity to choose the player you want. Hence the values are the same from draft to draft.

I'm aware the value decreases as you go down the draft, but it's ridiculous to claim that its the same every year. Last year we held the #10 pick, which according to the chart is worth half as much as the #2. Is the right to draft RG3 really only twice as valuable as the right to draft Stephon Gilmore? Of course not, and that's why Washington made one of the largest deals in NFL history to get the pick. This year, by contrast, Kansas City is in ideal position to trade the #1 overall and nobody cares. The difference between the #10 and the #1 is marginal.

[Skooby]

I'm aware the value decreases as you go down the draft, but it's ridiculous to claim that its the same every year. Last year we held the #10 pick, which according to the chart is worth half as much as the #2. Is the right to draft RG3 really only twice as valuable as the right to draft Stephon Gilmore? Of course not, and that's why Washington made one of the largest deals in NFL history to get the pick. This year, by contrast, Kansas City is in ideal position to trade the #1 overall and nobody cares. The difference between the #10 and the #1 is marginal.

The difference between 8-15 is marginal as well, that's why I'd like them to tradeback.

[BillsFever21]

The 49ers definitely don't need all of them draft picks. I can see them taking a page out of the Patriots draft playbook over the years and trading the 1st pick in the 2nd round to a crappy team looking to jump ahead of other teams for the next tier of QB's or other positions for a mid round pick this year and their 1st round pick next season and turn that into at least a Top 15 pick next year. Either that or swap their 31st pick to a team in the 2nd round and instead of getting another 3rd round pick in return get a 2nd round pick next year out of it.

I wouldn't also be surprised to see them to that with some of their mid or lower round draft picks that they won't need. Give a team their 3rd round pick for their 2nd round pick next year. If they don't do that then they will be packaging draft picks to move up in the draft if there is a player they like. There isn't any chance they will stand pat with 12 picks plus compensatory picks coming without making any moves. I'm not sure if any teams could need that many picks unless they are totally gutting their team and even that's a stretch.

With the roster that the 49ers have they would be lucky for 6 of their guys to make the roster. They will either package draft picks to move up, trade picks for compensation into next years draft, trade for a player like Revis or somebody else or a combination of the above.

[better days]

The 49ers definitely don't need all of them draft picks. I can see them taking a page out of the Patriots draft playbook over the years and trading the 1st pick in the 2nd round to a crappy team looking to jump ahead of other teams for the next tier of QB's or other positions for a mid round pick this year and their 1st round pick next season and turn that into at least a Top 15 pick next year. Either that or swap their 31st pick to a team in the 2nd round and instead of getting another 3rd round pick in return get a 2nd round pick next year out of it.

I wouldn't also be surprised to see them to that with some of their mid or lower round draft picks that they won't need. Give a team their 3rd round pick for their 2nd round pick next year. If they don't do that then they will be packaging draft picks to move up in the draft if there is a player they like. There isn't any chance they will stand pat with 12 picks plus compensatory picks coming without making any moves. I'm not sure if any teams could need that many picks unless they are totally gutting their team and even that's a stretch.

With the roster that the 49ers have they would be lucky for 6 of their guys to make the roster. They will either package draft picks to move up, trade picks for compensation into next years draft, trade for a player like Revis or somebody else or a combination of the above.

There is a lot of talk about the 49ers trading for Revis.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The difference between 8-15 is marginal as well, that's why I'd like them to tradeback.

What what team, for what player, and for what compensation? I like trading back as much as the next guy (especially if Smith goes) but it takes two to tango. Would you trade back 7 spots to 15 if they only offered us their 3rd to do so? Even if we got raped by the fancy value chart?

[YardRat]

If we lose Levitre and one of those 3 LT's falls to us, we better run to the podium and select one without even considering a QB or LB. Those 3 LT's are FAR better.

I'd love to see it, but I have the sneaky suspicion that Nix is in the delusional camp that believes the offensive line is a strength of this team in it's current form, even without Levitre.

We've got a lot of bodies on the oline, but are suffering badly at LB, WR and QB.

[TigerJ]

Well, since Buffalo never got Alex Smith, I don't see much point of debating whether he would have been a good pickup or not. We already had that debate before the trade anyway. That the price went up because of the interest of the Bills is probably a good thing. It took one possible player out of the first round QB derby even though the odds of KC drafting Geno Smith first overall were really slim to none even without Alex Smith in the fold. Of possible greater significance is that it takes a possible bidder for a second tier QB out of the mix in the second round. This only has relevance if Buffalo doesn't draft a QB in the first round, but because the trade cost KC their second round pick, There is one less team likely to be looking to draft a QB at the top of the second round. I don't know how interested Buffalo is in drafting Geno Smith or Matt Barkley at #8 overall, but if they don't we know they will be looking closely at second round values at QB. KC would have too. San Francisco probably won't. It's simple math, there will be one more QB for the Bills to choose from in the second round because of the Smith trade. Whether that one extra QB is the one who will tickle Buddy Nix's fancy or not, no one will ever know for certain, but it just gives us a little better odds of drafting the QB we want after missing out on Alex Smith.

[BillsFever21]

What what team, for what player, and for what compensation? I like trading back as much as the next guy (especially if Smith goes) but it takes two to tango. Would you trade back 7 spots to 15 if they only offered us their 3rd to do so? Even if we got raped by the fancy value chart?

If we knew that we could still get our guy I would do it for just a 3rd round pick even if it would usually command more. Any compensation is better then nothing if your guy will still be available unless it's just a total insult offer that wouldn't make it worth the chance of losing him. An extra 3rd round pick would come in handy with this team with all the needs that we have.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

If we knew that we could still get our guy I would do it for just a 3rd round pick even if it would usually command more. Any compensation is better then nothing if your guy will still be available unless it's just a total insult offer that wouldn't make it worth the chance of losing him. An extra 3rd round pick would come in handy with this team with all the needs that we have.

So who would that player be? And who would hypothetical trading partner want?

[Skooby]

A Revis trade acquisition makes tons of sense, it gives them an improvement in a position of need.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

A Revis trade acquisition makes tons of sense, it gives them an improvement in a position of need.

Not unless salary goes back the other way - they are tight on the cap even with Smith's salary coming off the books.

[Skooby]

Not unless salary goes back the other way - they are tight on the cap even with Smith's salary coming off the books.

They could use him next year & hopefully win it all with his services, then either tag him or try to sign him.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

They could use him next year & hopefully win it all with his services, then either tag him or try to sign him.

They are at 114 million in salaries right now and that's without Goldson, Sopoaga, or Francois

[better days]

Not unless salary goes back the other way - they are tight on the cap even with Smith's salary coming off the books.

If the 49ers trade for Revis, I'm sure they would want to sign him to a contract that ties him to the team for at least 4 more years. They could give him a huge bonus with little salary the first year to fit him under the cap.

[Ingtar33]

Rumor is its Barkley and not Geno that won't get past Arizona.

no way the cards try to sell another USC QB to their fans

[Bangarang]

And I am hearing rumors that Geno gets drafted by the Raiders.

Sounds more like the Raiders trying to scare some of the more needy teams in trading up.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

If the 49ers trade for Revis, I'm sure they would want to sign him to a contract that ties him to the team for at least 4 more years. They could give him a huge bonus with little salary the first year to fit him under the cap.

Sure, but that just pushes his cap hits into the future. They don't have a lot of dead money this year so their cap won't be relieved next year, and they have got some megabucks free agents in their future.

2014:
Justin Smith
Donte Whitner
Mario Manningham

2015:
Frank Gore
Michael Crabtree
Aldon Smith
Colin Kaepernick
Michael Iupati
Chris Culliver

That's a lot of All-Pros to sign, along with potentially their franchise quarterback. I agree that it makes sense by picks and need, but I don't know how they can make it work unless it's player for player in some capacity.

[TigerJ]

I heard on ESPN radio (no link) that San Francisco's interest in Darrell Revis is minimal. That he's a little too rich for their blood (salary expectations and draft picks) is the reason given.

[better days]

I heard on ESPN radio (no link) that San Francisco's interest in Darrell Revis is minimal. That he's a little too rich for their blood (salary expectations and draft picks) is the reason given.

Not surprising the 49ers are trying to lower the price on him.