Hogtied at QB

[The King]

I really can't believe the corner we've backed ourselves into. (and even as a Bills fan I have to say that)

By making our roster completely void of any starting QB we've done two things.

1. Either forced ourselves to reach 20 picks by taking a QB at 8
2. If we don't take a QB at 8 we've said to any other team looking, just move ahead of us in round 2 if you want a QB.

The only move we can make is to set up a trade before the draft, where we can move up in round 2 or late in round 1 to get our guy. But we can't announce it before hand, because once again anyone else looking knows they can jump in front of us.


For Free Agents this is what we're looking at.

Matt Cassell most likely being cut today (already being rumored MIN is going after him)
Jason Campbell
Josh Johnson
Charlie Batch
Brady Quinn
Byron Leftwich
Josh McCown
Luke McCown
Matt Leinhart
David Carr
Rex Grossman
Caleb Hanie

If we don't get Campbell in for an interview it's going to be Tavaris competing with a rookie.

[sukie]

So pick a QB at 8... What is the problem? Or pick a QB in the second... I don't see the hog tie thing.

[coastal]

Analytics baby!

embrace the culture change.

[jpdex12]

garbage...the starter of this thread doesn't want to pick a QB at #8 as he feels there is better value later but we may be forced to blow it and grab one then and lose out on a BPA. Unsure feeling of a sure fire top ten pick at QB...

[better days]

TJAX has started before. I see no drop off between him & Fitz. I have been saying for quite a while now, the Bills SHOULD take a QB at #8.

[justasportsfan]

I still don't think we pick a qb at 8. Now that we brought in Lawson, we go WR in round 1 and qb in 2nd or trade back up into 1st to do it.

[The King]

garbage...the starter of this thread doesn't want to pick a QB at #8 as he feels there is better value later but we may be forced to blow it and grab one then and lose out on a BPA. Unsure feeling of a sure fire top ten pick at QB...

That pretty much says it. I also dont like that the competition would be between a rookie and Tavaris.

[justasportsfan]

That pretty much says it. I also dont like that the competition would be between a rookie and Tavaris.

you'd be ok between Fitz and a rookie?

[better days]

you'd be ok between Fitz and a rookie?

Or any of the scrub FA QBs he named.

[The King]

you'd be ok between Fitz and a rookie?

No I wouldn't I want to see a 3rd name in the mix... but since we passed on Daniel & Stanton, we're stuck it's a QB at 8 or move up.

[justasportsfan]

No I wouldn't I want to see a 3rd name in the mix... but since we passed on Daniel & Stanton, we're stuck it's a QB at 8 or move up.

They already made a bust for Aaron Corp in canton.

Seriously , I'm pretty sure the bills will bring another one. Who knows, Flynn might get cut if no one trades for him.

[The King]

They already made a bust for Aaron Corp in canton.

Seriously , I'm pretty sure the bills will bring another one. Who knows, Flynn might get cut if no one trades for him.

Has that been rumored at all. I would be pretty thrilled if that were the case.

[Night Train]

So pick a QB at 8... What is the problem? Or pick a QB in the second... I don't see the hog tie thing.

This

A QB will be selected with one of our first 2 picks. Fitz wasn't fooling anyone and we can now move on to finding a Vet OG, WR, CB ( market for that position is flooded ) and more.

[ServoBillieves]

IMHO it's has to be a big turn off for FA's when they see the one competent (although laughably so) quarterback on the roster cut day 1. "Oh, you want to pay me vet minimum when there's little to no chance of even sniffing the playoffs this year? Hmm... let me th...*click*"

Why do you think Manny Lawson is our blockbuster sign up in the first 2 days?

[jpdex12]

We need to quit dickin around and just go QB at #8 and roll with it! Get the guy you want unless it's Smith they want and then focus on the next 5 picks!

- - - Updated - - -

Grab Nassib!

[OpIv37]

I really can't believe the corner we've backed ourselves into. (and even as a Bills fan I have to say that)

By making our roster completely void of any starting QB we've done two things.

1. Either forced ourselves to reach 20 picks by taking a QB at 8
2. If we don't take a QB at 8 we've said to any other team looking, just move ahead of us in round 2 if you want a QB.

The only move we can make is to set up a trade before the draft, where we can move up in round 2 or late in round 1 to get our guy. But we can't announce it before hand, because once again anyone else looking knows they can jump in front of us.


For Free Agents this is what we're looking at.

Matt Cassell most likely being cut today (already being rumored MIN is going after him)
Jason Campbell
Josh Johnson
Charlie Batch
Brady Quinn
Byron Leftwich
Josh McCown
Luke McCown
Matt Leinhart
David Carr
Rex Grossman
Caleb Hanie

If we don't get Campbell in for an interview it's going to be Tavaris competing with a rookie.
I'd rather have Tarvaris and a rookie. I lived in the DC area for Campbell's entire tenure with the team and got far more exposure to him than any human being should have to bear. The guy flat out sucks.

I wouldn't touch any of that FA trash. If we absolutely had to pick someone off that list, I'd go with Quinn just to give a ND guy another shot, but I suffer no delusions that he would actually be good. It's a one in a million shot at best, just like everyone else on that list.

[justasportsfan]

JP! JP! JP!


:ill:

[psubills62]

If we want a QB in the 2nd round, we're going to be the ones who have to move up. The only teams that might be looking at QB early are ahead of us. Don't really see anyone behind who probably feels like they need a QB. JMO.

[OpIv37]

So pick a QB at 8... What is the problem? Or pick a QB in the second... I don't see the hog tie thing.

Well no QB's are worth #8 and this team has a ton of other holes that could be filled with that pick. And if we don't take a QB at 8, other teams will know we are targeting one in the 2nd, and trade ahead of us if they want the same guy.

That's how we are hogtied. Overdraft and miss an opportunity to fix another position with the 8, or wait til the 2nd and pray someone decent is still there.

Both terrible options.

[ServoBillieves]

I'd rather have Tarvaris and a rookie. I lived in the DC area for Campbell's entire tenure with the team and got far more exposure to him than any human being should have to bear. The guy flat out sucks.

I wouldn't touch any of that FA trash. If we absolutely had to pick someone off that list, I'd go with Quinn just to give a ND guy another shot, but I suffer no delusions that he would actually be good. It's a one in a million shot at best, just like everyone else on that list.

I saw the response and immediately thought "Well he's got to think about Brady Quinn at least..." Then bam, there it is.

I really don't get why he couldn't make it on the NFL level. I mean I've seen the teams he's been on and they're no prize but bringing him here would be an ultimate "FU" to his career.

- - - Updated - - -


JP! JP! JP!


:ill:

Can we trade a conditional 2nd to the Locomotives?

[TigerJ]

Um, we didn't have a starting QB before we cut Fitzpatrick. Nix even said so (to the Bucs' GM).

[The King]

Well no QB's are worth #8 and this team has a ton of other holes that could be filled with that pick. And if we don't take a QB at 8, other teams will know we are targeting one in the 2nd, and trade ahead of us if they want the same guy.

That's how we are hogtied. Overdraft and miss an opportunity to fix another position with the 8, or wait til the 2nd and pray someone decent is still there.

Both terrible options.

Glad to see someone else realizes what I was trying to say.

[stuckincincy]

If we want a QB in the 2nd round, we're going to be the ones who have to move up. The only teams that might be looking at QB early are ahead of us. Don't really see anyone behind who probably feels like they need a QB. JMO.

Yep. I've maintained that CIN's early 2nd rounder obtained from OAK in the Palmer trade is a possible target for clubs looking to draft a QB.

BUF's actions may well reinforce that.

[better days]

Glad to see someone else realizes what I was trying to say.

You guys are deluded if you think other teams didn't know the Bills NEEDED a QB before Fitz was cut.

[EDS]

Um, we didn't have a starting QB before we cut Fitzpatrick. Nix even said so (to the Bucs' GM).

And the blame for that falls squarely on Buddy's shoulders. He did absolutely nothing to upgrade the position for three years and now the light has finally flickered on that he needs a QB . . .

Pure genius

[The King]

My concern is that we don't. We either select a QB at 8 or wait and get the last available option in round 2.

[better days]

My concern is that we don't. We either select a QB at 8 or wait and get the last available option in round 2.

I have been saying if the Bills wait until the 2nd rnd, all the GOOD QB prospects will be gone when they pick. They need to take a QB at #8 or possibly trade down a little & then take a QB.

[ServoBillieves]

I am going to finally be that guy that I hate...

If, with any integrity or intelligence left in his mind, Buddy can move back and pick up more picks for Marrone and Co. to start his regime then we could easily get a QB in the mid 1st with holes filled in the 2nd if Geno is off the board.

I'd much rather take Barkley or Wilson at 15-17 and have more picks than draft Nassib at 8.

[The King]

I have been saying if the Bills wait until the 2nd rnd, all the GOOD QB prospects will be gone when they pick. They need to take a QB at #8 or possibly trade down a little & then take a QB.
And does anything about this team make you believe that they will trade down?

[better days]

And does anything about this team make you believe that they will trade down?

Yes. The Bills have changed things up this year if you have not been paying attention. Jim Kelly has his finger on the pulse of the Bills & has said the Bills may trade down.

[OpIv37]

You guys are deluded if you think other teams didn't know the Bills NEEDED a QB before Fitz was cut.

Clearly it's a rebuilding year- if we had kept Fitz we might have been able to convince some teams that we would be holding off on QB for one more year, especially win all the other needs and the weak QB class.

But anyway, Fitz or no Fitz, mismanagement has caused us to be desperate for a QB when the supply is low.

[OpIv37]

And does anything about this team make you believe that they will trade down?


Yes. The Bills have changed things up this year if you have not been paying attention. Jim Kelly has his finger on the pulse of the Bills & has said the Bills may trade down.
I think this is the wrong question. More importantly, why would another team trade up in this draft?

[better days]

Clearly it's a rebuilding year- if we had kept Fitz we might have been able to convince some teams that we would be holding off on QB for one more year, especially win all the other needs and the weak QB class.

But anyway, Fitz or no Fitz, mismanagement has caused us to be desperate for a QB when the supply is low.

Nice to know you don't think the Bills are the only bumbling idiots in the NFL. If any team did not know the Bills are drafting a QB this year, they would be far more stupid than you accuse the Bills of being all the time.

- - - Updated - - -


I think this is the wrong question. More importantly, why would another team trade up in this draft?

To get a player they covet.

[jamze132]

Geno Smith at #8 or take the best QB available in RD2.

[kishoph]

Well no QB's are worth #8 and this team has a ton of other holes that could be filled with that pick. And if we don't take a QB at 8, other teams will know we are targeting one in the 2nd, and trade ahead of us if they want the same guy.

That's how we are hogtied. Overdraft and miss an opportunity to fix another position with the 8, or wait til the 2nd and pray someone decent is still there.

Both terrible options.

Saying there is no QB worth the #8 pick is nothing more than an opinion, there could be a QB in there that could be worth the #1 pick, no one knows for sure. There comes a time when you have to take a chance and given our current QB situation, that time is now.

[OpIv37]

Saying there is no QB worth the #8 pick is nothing more than an opinion, there could be a QB in there that could be worth the #1 pick, no one knows for sure. There comes a time when you have to take a chance and given our current QB situation, that time is now.
It's not just my opinion. It's an opinion shared by a lot of people who know a lot more about football than you or me.

The Bills CANNOT afford to miss with the #8. QB is notoriously the hardest position to draft, and the lack of quality in this QB class makes it that much more risky. Using the pick to fill another hole, while not without risk, is far more likely to get the results we need.

And we need a QB but saying that now is the time to take a chance is stupid. Our need doesn't make now the right time to take a chance. Our need doesn't make a QB available.

One of the big problems with this team has been bad drafting, and taking a QB because "now is the time to take a chance" regardless of quality is a good way to ensure that problem continues.

[mjt328]

If you don't think Geno Smith will be a good NFL quarterback...fine. That's your opinion and a lot of experts also feel that way. But the value argument is stupid. Just stupid.

It was invented by the sports media and ESPN personalities to create storylines on draft day (this team reached for a player... this team did a great job). The only thing that matters is whether a player turns out good or not.

In 2011, we had the #3 pick in the draft and chose Marcel Dareus. Many experts had him ranked as the best player in the draft, so we apparently got great "value." He's been solid, but an overall disappointment. The Texans had the #11 pick and chose J.J. Watt. He's been spectacular and has possibly already developed into the best pass rusher in football. We got great grades from the experts 2 years ago. But looking back, Nix completely blew it.

If the Bills had chosen J.J. Watt at #3, our front office would have been crucified. Everybody would have screamed that we could have traded down 10 spots and gotten Watt or another defensive end of equal "value" like Ryan Kerrigan, Robert Quinn or Adrian Clayborne. But guess what? J.J. Watt would have been a terrific pick at #3. At this point, the guy looks like a future Hall of Famer. He should have gone #1 overall. And those other defensive linemen (including Dareus) aren't even close.


Most of the people who are against taking Geno Smith in the Top 10, would also claim the guy was great "value" in the mid-20s. Well sorry everyone, but we don't have a pick between #8 and #40. If we trade back or wait for round 2, there is no guarantee that Smith or any other quarterback we like will still be available. Quarterbacks are always overdrafted and if you wait for one to fall, the one you want will likely be gone (see Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins last year).

If the Bills identify one of these prospects as "the guy" - and they aren't ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN he can be obtained with a later draft pick, they must pull the trigger in the first round. Screw value. If our front office determines that Nassib, Wilson or Glennon will be better than Smith/Barkley, then they need to take him at #8. They can't keep crossing their fingers and hoping things work out.

[EDS]

If you don't think Geno Smith will be a good NFL quarterback...fine. That's your opinion and a lot of experts also feel that way. But the value argument is stupid. Just stupid.

It was invented by the sports media and ESPN personalities to create storylines on draft day (this team reached for a player... this team did a great job). The only thing that matters is whether a player turns out good or not.

In 2011, we had the #3 pick in the draft and chose Marcel Dareus. Many experts had him ranked as the best player in the draft, so we apparently got great "value." He's been solid, but an overall disappointment. The Texans had the #11 pick and chose J.J. Watt. He's been spectacular and has possibly already developed into the best pass rusher in football. We got great grades from the experts 2 years ago. But looking back, Nix completely blew it.

If the Bills had chosen J.J. Watt at #3, our front office would have been crucified. Everybody would have screamed that we could have traded down 10 spots and gotten Watt or another defensive end of equal "value" like Ryan Kerrigan, Robert Quinn or Adrian Clayborne. But guess what? J.J. Watt would have been a terrific pick at #3. At this point, the guy looks like a future Hall of Famer. He should have gone #1 overall. And those other defensive linemen (including Dareus) aren't even close.


Most of the people who are against taking Geno Smith in the Top 10, would also claim the guy was great "value" in the mid-20s. Well sorry everyone, but we don't have a pick between #8 and #40. If we trade back or wait for round 2, there is no guarantee that Smith or any other quarterback we like will still be available. Quarterbacks are always overdrafted and if you wait for one to fall, the one you want will likely be gone (see Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins last year).

If the Bills identify one of these prospects as "the guy" - and they aren't ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN he can be obtained with a later draft pick, they must pull the trigger in the first round. Screw value. If our front office determines that Nassib, Wilson or Glennon will be better than Smith/Barkley, then they need to take him at #8. They can't keep crossing their fingers and hoping things work out.

Bills had many chances to take either Wilson or Cousins last year, just like they had a crying need and a silver platter delivered opportunity to draft Kaepernick or Dalton the year before. Obviously, however, it was impossible for Buddy to pass on the talents of Aaron Williams and T.J. Graham.

[better days]

It's not just my opinion. It's an opinion shared by a lot of people who know a lot more about football than you or me.

The Bills CANNOT afford to miss with the #8. QB is notoriously the hardest position to draft, and the lack of quality in this QB class makes it that much more risky. Using the pick to fill another hole, while not without risk, is far more likely to get the results we need.

And we need a QB but saying that now is the time to take a chance is stupid. Our need doesn't make now the right time to take a chance. Our need doesn't make a QB available.

One of the big problems with this team has been bad drafting, and taking a QB because "now is the time to take a chance" regardless of quality is a good way to ensure that problem continues.

It may be an opinion shared by others, but it is still an OPINION, not a fact.

The reason this is the time to draft a QB is at #8, the Bills have an opportunity to draft a QB that may not present itself next year. And if the QB drafted shows he will be no better than a back up, the Bills can draft a QB again next year.

It is worth the gamble to keep drafting a QB until you hit on one.

[OpIv37]

If you don't think Geno Smith will be a good NFL quarterback...fine. That's your opinion and a lot of experts also feel that way. But the value argument is stupid. Just stupid.

It was invented by the sports media and ESPN personalities to create storylines on draft day (this team reached for a player... this team did a great job). The only thing that matters is whether a player turns out good or not.

In 2011, we had the #3 pick in the draft and chose Marcel Dareus. Many experts had him ranked as the best player in the draft, so we apparently got great "value." He's been solid, but an overall disappointment. The Texans had the #11 pick and chose J.J. Watt. He's been spectacular and has possibly already developed into the best pass rusher in football. We got great grades from the experts 2 years ago. But looking back, Nix completely blew it.

If the Bills had chosen J.J. Watt at #3, our front office would have been crucified. Everybody would have screamed that we could have traded down 10 spots and gotten Watt or another defensive end of equal "value" like Ryan Kerrigan, Robert Quinn or Adrian Clayborne. But guess what? J.J. Watt would have been a terrific pick at #3. At this point, the guy looks like a future Hall of Famer. He should have gone #1 overall. And those other defensive linemen (including Dareus) aren't even close.


Most of the people who are against taking Geno Smith in the Top 10, would also claim the guy was great "value" in the mid-20s. Well sorry everyone, but we don't have a pick between #8 and #40. If we trade back or wait for round 2, there is no guarantee that Smith or any other quarterback we like will still be available. Quarterbacks are always overdrafted and if you wait for one to fall, the one you want will likely be gone (see Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins last year).

If the Bills identify one of these prospects as "the guy" - and they aren't ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN he can be obtained with a later draft pick, they must pull the trigger in the first round. Screw value. If our front office determines that Nassib, Wilson or Glennon will be better than Smith/Barkley, then they need to take him at #8. They can't keep crossing their fingers and hoping things work out.

Think about what you are saying.

Early draft picks are an opportunity to improve the team. If we had taken Watt on draft day instead of Dareus, people would have flipped, but no one would be complaining now. While Dareus isn't a complete bust, he hasn't improved our team as much as a #3 overall pick should. And bad drafting in the early rounds is a major reason why this team has sucked for so long.

I couldn't give a **** what the media says about "value." The point is that whoever we get at 8 has to improve the team significantly. We have so many holes that the BPA vs drafting for need argument goes right out the window. We have several major holes and there will be a great player available at one of those positions. However, QB is notoriously the hardest position to draft and this is a weak QB class. The chances of one of these QB's significantly improving the team is far less than someone at another position. That's why drafting a QB this year is a bad idea.

[OpIv37]

It may be an opinion shared by others, but it is still an OPINION, not a fact.

The reason this is the time to draft a QB is at #8, the Bills have an opportunity to draft a QB that may not present itself next year. And if the QB drafted shows he will be no better than a back up, the Bills can draft a QB again next year.

It is worth the gamble to keep drafting a QB until you hit on one.
No, it's not.

A major reason why this team has sucked for so long is poor drafting. They have to take the player who is most likely to improve the team significantly. Every wasted first round draft pick sets the team back because that's a good player on someone else's roster rather than ours.

[TacklingDummy]

garbage...the starter of this thread doesn't want to pick a QB at #8 as he feels there is better value later but we may be forced to blow it and grab one then and lose out on a BPA. Unsure feeling of a sure fire top ten pick at QB...

If the Bills pick Barkley at #8 and he turns out to be the franchise QB they been looking for then the pick was not such a gamble.

If he turns out to be the next Mark Sanchez than the Bills are screwed for another 5 years.

[BertSquirtgum]

Was just watching clips from the mean Gene Smith pro day and Buddlee was standing right there looking like a dummy.

[kingJofNYC]

THE GREAT BUDDY NIX!

[imbondz]

The Colts go 2-14 the year amazing QBs come out. We haven't been this desperate for a QB in a while (in the sense of not having any, we've been desperate since Kelly), and it's the worst year to need one. Unbelievable.

To me it makes sense to draft a QB every single year until you hit a jackpot. Draft, cut, draft, cut, draft cut....

[OpIv37]

The Colts go 2-14 the year amazing QBs come out. We haven't been this desperate for a QB in a while (in the sense of not having any, we've been desperate since Kelly), and it's the worst year to need one. Unbelievable.

To me it makes sense to draft a QB every single year until you hit a jackpot. Draft, cut, draft, cut, draft cut....

Ok, then who's gonna block for the QB? Who's he going to throw to? Who's going to play D and make sure the QB isn't on the bench for 40 minutes a game while the other team racks up 250 rushing yards?

You can't just waste draft picks. When you do, you get the results the Bills have gotten for the last 13 years.

[k-oneputt]

Who's to say the qb picked at #8 won't be value and worth the pick ??????

Do I have to start listing qb's drafted later then that, that would now be considered great picks ?

Ok, Russell Wilson, Kapernick, Brees........

When you don't have a qb, like the Bills, you have to make your move at #8.

[kishoph]

It's not just my opinion. It's an opinion shared by a lot of people who know a lot more about football than you or me.

The Bills CANNOT afford to miss with the #8. QB is notoriously the hardest position to draft, and the lack of quality in this QB class makes it that much more risky. Using the pick to fill another hole, while not without risk, is far more likely to get the results we need.

And we need a QB but saying that now is the time to take a chance is stupid. Our need doesn't make now the right time to take a chance. Our need doesn't make a QB available.

One of the big problems with this team has been bad drafting, and taking a QB because "now is the time to take a chance" regardless of quality is a good way to ensure that problem continues.

It doesn't matter if 99% of the population feel that way, it's still just an opinion and doesn't mean that there isn't a QB worth that pick. Again I point out the opinion of recent draftees such as Wilson and Kaepernick, nobody thought they were worth a 1st round pick, were they right ? Would it be a safer pick to draft someone like Cordarrelle Patterson (who so many people want)?

[OpIv37]

Who's to say the qb picked at #8 won't be value and worth the pick ??????

Do I have to start listing qb's drafted later then that, that would now be considered great picks ?

Ok, Russell Wilson, Kapernick, Brees........

When you don't have a qb, like the Bills, you have to make your move at #8.

Ok, let me say this one more time: a QB at 8 may turn out to be good BUT QB is always the riskiest position to draft and this weak QB class makes it even more risky. The Bills simply can't afford to not get a player who makes the team significantly better. Given the fact that the risk of drafting a QB is much greater than other positions and the Bills need help in so many areas, it's just far too risky to take one of these QB's at 8.


And the last part is just absurd. Buffalo's need doesn't make the right QB available at 8.

[OpIv37]

It doesn't matter if 99% of the population feel that way, it's still just an opinion and doesn't mean that there isn't a QB worth that pick. Again I point out the opinion of recent draftees such as Wilson and Kaepernick, nobody thought they were worth a 1st round pick, were they right ? Would it be a safer pick to draft someone like Cordarrelle Patterson (who so many people want)?

I don't know anything about Patterson specifically, but generally speaking, WR's are easier to evaluate and less risky than QB's.

And yes, it is just an opinion no matter how many people have it. But generally speaking, when there is that much consensus, the opinion is correct. A few of many, many examples: Pretty much everyone except the Bills thought Orakpo was better than Maybin. Pretty much no one thought Ted Ginn Jr was worth the #8 overall pick. Pretty much no one thought Jamarcus Russell was worth the #1 overall.

[venis2k1]

Lets bring that trick shot QB back...Sure we would suck. But at least it would be entertaining.

[Novacane]

This theory that every team that needs a QB is gonna jump in front of the Bills is overhyped.

[Oaf]

You can't just waste draft picks. When you do, you get the results the Bills have gotten for the last 13 years.


But it's not like we've taken QB after QB in the draft, wasting many picks. Unfortunately, if we had held our gait w/ Bledsoe one more year, we would have had Rodgers fall into our lap the year after Losman.

[Mouldsie]

Jim Kelly doesnt believe taking a QB at 8 is smart. FWIW

[DraftBoy]

Jim Kelly doesnt believe taking a QB at 8 is smart. FWIW

And nobody should care one iota about what Jim Kelly believes or doesn't.

[OpIv37]

This theory that every team that needs a QB is gonna jump in front of the Bills is overhyped.

In the first, probably. In the 2nd, I doubt it. It isn't going to take much for teams to move ahead of us, and there are probably a bunch of teams that believe they can still get the guy they want if they move down 5-6 slots.

[OpIv37]

But it's not like we've taken QB after QB in the draft, wasting many picks. Unfortunately, if we had held our gait w/ Bledsoe one more year, we would have had Rodgers fall into our lap the year after Losman.

I'm not saying Buffalo should never draft a QB. If they had been a little more diligent about it, maybe we would have found a Wilson or Kaepernick by now.

But, the situation has to warrant it. We can't just take a flyer on a QB every year until we find one that works. There has to be some indication that the player will be worth the pick because we need a complete football team.

Too many people on this board are letting desperation for a QB cloud their judgment.

[mjt328]

Think about what you are saying.

Early draft picks are an opportunity to improve the team. If we had taken Watt on draft day instead of Dareus, people would have flipped, but no one would be complaining now. While Dareus isn't a complete bust, he hasn't improved our team as much as a #3 overall pick should. And bad drafting in the early rounds is a major reason why this team has sucked for so long.

I couldn't give a **** what the media says about "value." The point is that whoever we get at 8 has to improve the team significantly. We have so many holes that the BPA vs drafting for need argument goes right out the window. We have several major holes and there will be a great player available at one of those positions. However, QB is notoriously the hardest position to draft and this is a weak QB class. The chances of one of these QB's significantly improving the team is far less than someone at another position. That's why drafting a QB this year is a bad idea.

What "great" player will be available at #8 that will improve our team significantly?

Corderalle Patterson? Lane Johnson? Barkevious Mingo?

This year's draft is relatively weak from top to bottom. It's not like we are talking about bypassing AJ Green or Luke Kuechly or Matt Kalil-type prospects for a prospect like Tim Tebow.

[better days]

They have to take the player who is most likely to improve the team significantly.

The player most likely to improve the team significantly is a QUARTERBACK. No other player at no other position will have that kind of impact.

Drafting a QB is a MUST. High risk yes, but with high risk comes high reward.

[OpIv37]

What "great" player will be available at #8 that will improve our team significantly?

Corderalle Patterson? Lane Johnson? Barkevious Mingo?

This year's draft is relatively weak from top to bottom. It's not like we are talking about bypassing AJ Green or Luke Kuechly or Matt Kalil-type prospects for a prospect like Tim Tebow.

What makes you so sure? What if they determine that Patterson, Johnson or Mingo are the best guys in the draft class like you said with the QB?

What matters the most is getting someone at 8 who makes the team significantly better. The chances of a QB doing that are lower than other positions. It's that simple. Our need for a QB doesn't mean that Qb is the best use of the pick.

[OpIv37]

The player most likely to improve the team significantly is a QUARTERBACK. No other player at no other position will have that kind of impact.

Drafting a QB is a MUST. High risk yes, but with high risk comes high reward.

That's absurd because it makes no allowance for quality. A good QB will have a bigger impact than, say, a good WR. But a good WR will have a bigger impact than a mediocre or bad QB.

And high risk may lead to high reward. It doesn't necessarily lead to high reward. It could just as easily lead to setting this team back another 3 or 4 years. And before you say it, the rookie salary cap doesn't mitigate the risk. Sure, it takes the financial element out of it, but it still means that we will have yet ANOTHER wasted draft pick. And if you want to see what wasted draft picks get you, look at this team over the last 13 years.

[MTBillsFan]

Which QB's are available next year? It seems like that's MO of the front office, "well, there's always next year." There's not even a QB worth a Bledsoe like trade out there.

[don137]

I am all for drafting two quarterbacks. The Bills are desperate at QB. I am not saying taking one at #8 but maybe one in the second and another in round 4-5. The Bills were going no where with Fitz and they need the salary cap dollars to address other needs over keeping Fitz and having him keep getting us the 8-#12 picks

[OpIv37]

Which QB's are available next year? It seems like that's MO of the front office, "well, there's always next year." There's not even a QB worth a Bledsoe like trade out there.

don't know but once again, our need doesn't affect availability.

- - - Updated - - -

[TrEd FTW]

If we don't get Campbell in for an interview it's going to be Tavaris competing with a rookie.

Well, yeah. What else do you expect? Jackson's the token ****ty veteran backup who will compete with the rookie. They don't need two token ****ty backups. Bringing in some bum like Campbell or Cassel isn't going to solve anything.

[better days]

That's absurd because it makes no allowance for quality. A good QB will have a bigger impact than, say, a good WR. But a good WR will have a bigger impact than a mediocre or bad QB.

And high risk may lead to high reward. It doesn't necessarily lead to high reward. It could just as easily lead to setting this team back another 3 or 4 years. And before you say it, the rookie salary cap doesn't mitigate the risk. Sure, it takes the financial element out of it, but it still means that we will have yet ANOTHER wasted draft pick. And if you want to see what wasted draft picks get you, look at this team over the last 13 years.

The longer the Bills go without a GOOD QB, the longer the team will be set back.

A good WR will have NO impact without a QB that can throw him the ball, & throw it while he is in stride & not set him up to have his head taken off the minute he catches the ball.

I don't care how good the rest of the team is, in TODAYS NFL a team NEEDS a QB. You can get by with a mediocre WR or any other position EXCEPT QB.

It is well worth the gamble to get the position that will have the greatest impact on the team, the QUARTERBACK. And I would love to play poker with you because I would know you would not put any money in the pot unless you had a GOOD hand.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

That's absurd because it makes no allowance for quality. A good QB will have a bigger impact than, say, a good WR. But a good WR will have a bigger impact than a mediocre or bad QB.

And high risk may lead to high reward. It doesn't necessarily lead to high reward. It could just as easily lead to setting this team back another 3 or 4 years. And before you say it, the rookie salary cap doesn't mitigate the risk. Sure, it takes the financial element out of it, but it still means that we will have yet ANOTHER wasted draft pick. And if you want to see what wasted draft picks get you, look at this team over the last 13 years.

And all throughout those 13 years, we kept taking "safe" picks like running backs, linemen, DBs, etc. We've done exactly what you would have us do - wait for the perfect marriage of QB value and draft value - and yet those "safe" picks busted or left town.

Your argument is based on this idea that there is some guaranteed winner we are passing over to take a QB. Patterson, Jones, Mingo, etc can all bust as bust just as badly.

[Mouldsie]

And nobody should care one iota about what Jim Kelly believes or doesn't.
So to you it's worth nothing.

I think it's worth something. Like a 2/10.

[OpIv37]

And all throughout those 13 years, we kept taking "safe" picks like running backs, linemen, DBs, etc. We've done exactly what you would have us do - wait for the perfect marriage of QB value and draft value - and yet those "safe" picks busted or left town.

Your argument is based on this idea that there is some guaranteed winner we are passing over to take a QB. Patterson, Jones, Mingo, etc can all bust as bust just as badly.

Trading up for Losman was a safe pick? Picking Maybin over Orakpo was a safe pick? Taking Whitner at 8 was a safe pick? Give me a ****ing break.

yeah, there's no guarantee that those guys won't be busts. But, the chances of them being busts aren't "just as bad." They're far less. QB is notoriously the hardest position to scout and these QB's haven't impressed anyone. My argument is based on the fact that other positions are more likely to make an immediate impact and less likely to be busts than these QB's.

[OpIv37]

The longer the Bills go without a GOOD QB, the longer the team will be set back.

A good WR will have NO impact without a QB that can throw him the ball, & throw it while he is in stride & not set him up to have his head taken off the minute he catches the ball.

I don't care how good the rest of the team is, in TODAYS NFL a team NEEDS a QB. You can get by with a mediocre WR or any other position EXCEPT QB.

It is well worth the gamble to get the position that will have the greatest impact on the team, the QUARTERBACK. And I would love to play poker with you because I would know you would not put any money in the pot unless you had a GOOD hand.

This argument is absurd on so many levels.

First, it's based on the assumption that somewhere, there is a good QB waiting for us. You are blind to the fact that our need does not affect availability.

Second, you are far overstating what a QB can do. A QB with no WR's and no OL will get shell-shocked like Losman, Edwards, R Johnson and T Collins. A QB who sits on the bench while his D gives up 250 yards on the ground is useless. A team can get by with a mediocre WR. They can't get by with mediocre WR, OG, LB, CB and no depth. This team has far too many holes to be able to afford to miss on this pick. It's absolutely not worth the gamble when the team is as bad as this. No QB can rescue this cluster**** on his own.

[better days]

Trading up for Losman was a safe pick? Picking Maybin over Orakpo was a safe pick? Taking Whitner at 8 was a safe pick? Give me a ****ing break.

yeah, there's no guarantee that those guys won't be busts. But, the chances of them being busts aren't "just as bad." They're far less. QB is notoriously the hardest position to scout and these QB's haven't impressed anyone. My argument is based on the fact that other positions are more likely to make an immediate impact and less likely to be busts than these QB's.

Yeah, you think a WR will make an impact with a QB that can't get him the ball.

[OpIv37]

Yeah, you think a WR will make an impact with a QB that can't get him the ball.

And you think average college QB's are going to make an impact on an NFL team with only one decent WR.

And, the lack of a QB to get him the ball doesn't make a WR a bust.

[better days]

This argument is absurd on so many levels.

First, it's based on the assumption that somewhere, there is a good QB waiting for us. You are blind to the fact that our need does not affect availability.

Second, you are far overstating what a QB can do. A QB with no WR's and no OL will get shell-shocked like Losman, Edwards, R Johnson and T Collins. A QB who sits on the bench while his D gives up 250 yards on the ground is useless. A team can get by with a mediocre WR. They can't get by with mediocre WR, OG, LB, CB and no depth. This team has far too many holes to be able to afford to miss on this pick. It's absolutely not worth the gamble when the team is as bad as this. No QB can rescue this cluster**** on his own.

Ridiculous. You are saying the Bills have no other players. The Bills have a number of good players & even with the loss of Levitre, there are teams with much worse OLs than the Bills.

There is no guarantee that the QB the Bills draft will be good, but if they don't draft one I can guarantee they won't have a good QB.

[OpIv37]

Ridiculous. You are saying the Bills have no other players. The Bills have a number of good players & even with the loss of Levitre, there are teams with much worse OLs than the Bills.

There is no guarantee that the QB the Bills draft will be good, but if they don't draft one I can guarantee they won't have a good QB.

Are you seriously trying to suggest that the Bills don't lack talent? Give me a ****ing break.

[better days]

And you think average college QB's are going to make an impact on an NFL team with only one decent WR.

And, the lack of a QB to get him the ball doesn't make a WR a bust.

I did not say the lack of a QB would make a WR a bust. I said no WR will have a great impact without a QB that can get him the ball.

When you have below average QBs, an average QB would be an improvement.

[better days]

Are you seriously trying to suggest that the Bills don't lack talent? Give me a ****ing break.

You are saying the Bills have NO talent. Give us ALL a ****ing break.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Trading up for Losman was a safe pick? Picking Maybin over Orakpo was a safe pick? Taking Whitner at 8 was a safe pick? Give me a ****ing break.

yeah, there's no guarantee that those guys won't be busts. But, the chances of them being busts aren't "just as bad." They're far less. QB is notoriously the hardest position to scout and these QB's haven't impressed anyone. My argument is based on the fact that other positions are more likely to make an immediate impact and less likely to be busts than these QB's.

Losman wasn't a "safe pick" he was a gamble on a QB. And he busted, get over it. If you lost money on a poker game would you say "I'm never betting on two pair again!"? But yeah, Maybin and Whitner were at supposedly "safe" positions like DE and Free Safety. Williams was a bust at offensive tackle, another "safe" position. McCargo was a bust a defensive tackle, yet another "safe" position. Neither McGahee nor Lynch were busts, but they left town all the same so we didn't nearly get value for them.

So yeah, we've been doing the safe thing for years. You are only focusing on the possible negatives, if the QB pans out then we have a franchise QB - only the thing we've been desperately missing for nearly 20 years. I've said this many times as well - if you're drafting at #8, you aren't getting a flawless QB prospect no matter what the year. So find the guy you think has franchise upside and correctable flaws, grow a pair and go for it for once.

[OpIv37]

You are saying the Bills have NO talent. Give us ALL a ****ing break.

They don't. 6-10 last year and we've lost 6 starters and only replaced one of them. The other 5 are currently replaced by the back-ups who weren't good enough to unseat the mediocrity we had last year.

[OpIv37]

Losman wasn't a "safe pick" he was a gamble on a QB. And he busted, get over it. If you lost money on a poker game would you say "I'm never betting on two pair again!"? But yeah, Maybin and Whitner were at supposedly "safe" positions like DE and Free Safety. Williams was a bust at offensive tackle, another "safe" position. McCargo was a bust a defensive tackle, yet another "safe" position. Neither McGahee nor Lynch were busts, but they left town all the same so we didn't nearly get value for them.

So yeah, we've been doing the safe thing for years. You are only focusing on the possible negatives, if the QB pans out then we have a franchise QB - only the thing we've been desperately missing for nearly 20 years. I've said this many times as well - if you're drafting at #8, you aren't getting a flawless QB prospect no matter what the year. So find the guy you think has franchise upside and correctable flaws, grow a pair and go for it for once.
So your definition of "safe" is "anything but QB or a damaged goods RB?" Please.

You're not talking about betting on two pair. You're talking about betting your rent and food money for 3 months on ace high.

[Mouldsie]

And all throughout those 13 years, we kept taking "safe" picks like running backs, linemen, DBs, etc. We've done exactly what you would have us do - wait for the perfect marriage of QB value and draft value - and yet those "safe" picks busted or left town.

Your argument is based on this idea that there is some guaranteed winner we are passing over to take a QB. Patterson, Jones, Mingo, etc can all bust as bust just as badly.
Your argument that we were waiting for the perfect QB marriage is false. You don't know what they were doing. I know one thing is for damn sure and its that I would have drafted many QB's over the years because I had conviction that they would be great players. I have none on this years crop. To me the draft is not a game of chance. It's not a lottery or slot machine. You don't just throw away draft picks on ****ty players when a guy who you think is a Pro Bowl player is on the board.

[imbondz]

Ok, then who's gonna block for the QB? Who's he going to throw to? Who's going to play D and make sure the QB isn't on the bench for 40 minutes a game while the other team racks up 250 rushing yards?

You can't just waste draft picks. When you do, you get the results the Bills have gotten for the last 13 years.

but haven't we wasted a ton of draft picks over the past few years but very few on QBs? what's it matter if you suck at quarterback who you're throwing to. you can have great WR and it doesn't matter if your QB can't get you the ball.

[Mouldsie]

Losman wasn't a "safe pick" he was a gamble on a QB. And he busted, get over it. If you lost money on a poker game would you say "I'm never betting on two pair again!"? But yeah, Maybin and Whitner were at supposedly "safe" positions like DE and Free Safety. Williams was a bust at offensive tackle, another "safe" position. McCargo was a bust a defensive tackle, yet another "safe" position. Neither McGahee nor Lynch were busts, but they left town all the same so we didn't nearly get value for them.

So yeah, we've been doing the safe thing for years. You are only focusing on the possible negatives, if the QB pans out then we have a franchise QB - only the thing we've been desperately missing for nearly 20 years. I've said this many times as well - if you're drafting at #8, you aren't getting a flawless QB prospect no matter what the year. So find the guy you think has franchise upside and correctable flaws, grow a pair and go for it for once.
Losman was not a gamble in my eyes. He was a sure bet. A sure loser.

[Mouldsie]

but haven't we wasted a ton of draft picks over the past few years but very few on QBs? what's it matter if you suck at quarterback who you're throwing to. you can have great WR and it doesn't matter if your QB can't get you the ball.
If we wasted picks on non-QB's it's because we took ****ty players. That has no bearing on this discussion.

I agree, we need a franchise QB. Which one?

[Albany,n.y.]

I am all for drafting two quarterbacks. The Bills are desperate at QB. I am not saying taking one at #8 but maybe one in the second and another in round 4-5. The Bills were going no where with Fitz and they need the salary cap dollars to address other needs over keeping Fitz and having him keep getting us the 8-#12 picks

I'll take 2 QBs, but not in this draft. This idea of trying to find a viable QB in the 4th or 5th round, especially with our track record on QB evaluation, has a slim to none chance, especially in this QB weak draft.

Here's what I'd say to my staff if I was running things: Let's look at the QB spot differently. Usually, if you draft a 1st round QB this year, you give him enough time to determine what you've got. Let's think this QB thing outside that box. Let's take the highest rated QB left on our board at #8 and immediately install him as the starter. Let him sink or swim. If he lights it up this season, we're set. However, if he doesn't play light out, we're going to draft another QB in next year's 1st round & let them battle it out in camp. If they both bust, we're going to do it until we get it right. This is a QB driven league and we're not going to give any guy more than a season or 2 for the light to come on. This is the 21st Century & there's no time to sit around and wait for a young QB to get better by osmosis. He's either got it from the beginning or we're moving on. We've given guys like Fitzpatrick, Edwards and Losman way too much time to get it right and we can't afford to waste the next 3 years on one player. If we hit, fine, if not, it's time to move on.

Also, I've always believed there's no such thing as a coach ruining a good QB. In every case where the Bills have missed on a QB, it was the QB who was the coach killer, not the other way around. Anyone who really believes that the Bills ruined JP, just look at the fact that he had one of the most respected QB coaches around, Sam Wyche, and poor Sam couldn't get any blood out of that stone. QBs that bust do so because of themselves, not their coaches. They either didn't have it physically, mentally or both.

[OpIv37]

but haven't we wasted a ton of draft picks over the past few years but very few on QBs? what's it matter if you suck at quarterback who you're throwing to. you can have great WR and it doesn't matter if your QB can't get you the ball.

The point is that you're not going to win without a complete team. We have a LOT of holes and our best opportunity to fill one of them is the #8 pick. QB is the least likely position to yield the intended results.
We just can't afford to miss with this pick so it's illogical to use it on the most risky position.

[Mouldsie]

The point is that you're not going to win without a complete team. We have a LOT of holes and our best opportunity to fill one of them is the #8 pick. QB is the least likely position to yield the intended results.
We just can't afford to miss with this pick so it's illogical to use it on the most risky position.
This is where you and I disagree in a way. I'm fine with risking the pick on a QB if I like any of them haha

I like Taj Boyd and Johnny Manziel and to an extent Teddy Bridgewater. And I like them all more than this years guys.

This year I probably like Smith, Wilson, and Dysert the best but they are all so closely rated and lower rated than other positional needs that I wouldnt look at one until round 3

[OpIv37]

This is where you and I disagree in a way. I'm fine with risking the pick on a QB if I like any of them haha

I like Taj Boyd and Johnny Manziel and to an extent Teddy Bridgewater. And I like them all more than this years guys.

This year I probably like Smith, Wilson, and Dysert the best but they are all so closely rated and lower rated than other positional needs that I wouldnt look at one until round 3
Well, I should have been more specific- I didn't mean we shouldn't EVER use a first round pick on a QB. I just think that none of the QB's this year are worthy of a pick that high and it's not worth the risk of not filling another hole.

[Nighthawk]

OMG!!! I haven't been on these boards in years and it still is humorous how people fail to realize that it does not matter what the team looks like if there is no QB leading the way. Every year we are overanalyzing the QBs and why the Bills shouldn't take one high...and every year many of those QB's turn into very viable NFL starters. It does not matter what the Bills draft early, unless they get the QB...everything else is just frosting on the cake. Get the QB...I guarantee there is a good one in this draft, there always is!!!! Stop thinking too much!!!

[better days]

They don't. 6-10 last year and we've lost 6 starters and only replaced one of them. The other 5 are currently replaced by the back-ups who weren't good enough to unseat the mediocrity we had last year.

This kind of post hurts your credibility. Of course the Bills have not set the roster with replacements for the mediocre players they cut yet............................it is MARCH 14 look at the calender. By the start of training camp all those scrubs let go will be replaced by better players. The only player that will be missed is Levitre & while I am pissed about losing him other teams have lost much more.

[OpIv37]

This kind of post hurts your credibility. Of course the Bills have not set the roster with replacements for the mediocre players they cut yet............................it is MARCH 14 look at the calender. By the start of training camp all those scrubs let go will be replaced by better players. The only player that will be missed is Levitre & while I am pissed about losing him other teams have lost much more.

What better players? You act like there are better guys just hanging out unsigned. This where you hurt your credibility. You just assume that Buddy is going to pull replacements out of his ass. We have 6 draft picks and you want to use one on a QB. Every single one of them would have to be a hit just to replace what we lost from last year. And then we still have other holes and no dept.

[Mouldsie]

OMG!!! I haven't been on these boards in years and it still is humorous how people fail to realize that it does not matter what the team looks like if there is no QB leading the way.
Who?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

So your definition of "safe" is "anything but QB or a damaged goods RB?" Please.

No, my definition of "safe pick" is "Find another sport, there are no 'safe' picks." Every player has the potential to bust. So avoiding QBs out of fear that they'll bust is ridiculous, and complaining about our previous draft failures when we did exactly that and the guys we picked busted anyway pretty much cements that.


Your argument that we were waiting for the perfect QB marriage is false. You don't know what they were doing.

It's pretty obvious to tell that's what they were doing. Since 2000, when this run of fail started, we've drafted three QBs. Three. In 13 drafts! If you include the trades for Bledsoe and Jackson, that's still only five picks used on QBs over that whole span.

Compare the Green Bay Packers - They started the 2000 season with a hall of fame QB in his prime. They've used 6 picks on QBs since.
New England had a 27 year old multiple Pro Bowler that year, and found their best QB ever the following year - They've used 7 picks on QBs and 6 since they took Brady.
Denver Broncos - 7 picks and they still went to the FA market for theirs.
Baltimore Ravens - 8 picks

None of them are terrified of busting on a QB.


I know one thing is for damn sure and its that I would have drafted many QB's over the years because I had conviction that they would be great players. I have none on this years crop. To me the draft is not a game of chance. It's not a lottery or slot machine. You don't just throw away draft picks on ****ty players when a guy who you think is a Pro Bowl player is on the board.

So who's this guaranteed pro bowler?
Ansah? The underwear Olympian who has less than 5 career sacks and has only been playing organized football since 2010?
Jones? The guy who can't even got doctors to agree his spine is thick enough to survive pro football?
Patterson? The guy who's played one season at the D1 level and wasn't the top target on his own team?
Warmack? Better hope he isn't a pro bowler, then we might actually have to pay him.
Jordan? The guy who played his college ball at a lower weight than Maybin?

And so on. There are no guarantees anywhere, so why are we talking about guys like Smith as dumpster fires waiting to happen and hyping up guys with just as many question marks?

[better days]

The point is that you're not going to win without a complete team. We have a LOT of holes and our best opportunity to fill one of them is the #8 pick. QB is the least likely position to yield the intended results.
We just can't afford to miss with this pick so it's illogical to use it on the most risky position.

No team is complete without a QUARTERBACK.

Again it may be a risk to draft a QB, but the reward if we hit will be HUGE. And don't tell me there is no chance of that happening.

[OpIv37]

OMG!!! I haven't been on these boards in years and it still is humorous how people fail to realize that it does not matter what the team looks like if there is no QB leading the way. Every year we are overanalyzing the QBs and why the Bills shouldn't take one high...and every year many of those QB's turn into very viable NFL starters. It does not matter what the Bills draft early, unless they get the QB...everything else is just frosting on the cake. Get the QB...I guarantee there is a good one in this draft, there always is!!!! Stop thinking too much!!!
You are right on the importance of the QB. You are wrong on the bolded part, hence this discussion.

Well, you are probably right that there is a good QB somewhere in this draft. Whether or not Buffalo will have the opportunity to draft him is a different story.

[Mouldsie]

.I guarantee there is a good one in this draft, there always is!!!! Stop thinking too much!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NFL_Draft

[OpIv37]

No team is complete without a QUARTERBACK.

Again it may be a risk to draft a QB, but the reward if we hit will be HUGE. And don't tell me there is no chance of that happening.

And once again, the need for a QB doesn't make one available.

yeah, there's a chance, but there's a much better chance that taking the risk will result in setting this team back 3-4 years.

[Mouldsie]

No team is complete without a QUARTERBACK.

Again it may be a risk to draft a QB, but the reward if we hit will be HUGE. And don't tell me there is no chance of that happening.

It's not a casino game.

[CleveSteve]

To take Jarvis Jones or Ezekiel Ansah or Damontre Moore ahead of the Jets.

To take the third OT if the Cardinals just took the second one.

To take Dee Milliner if he's still available.

To take Chance Warmack ahead of the Jets.

Those are four possibilities that jump to mind.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NFL_Draft

http://www.thesaintsnation.com/2011-articles/april/saints-nation-2011-quarterback-draft-class-exceptionally-weak.html
http://www.realclearsports.com/2011/02/26/weak_qb_class_after_top_2_prospects_86562.html
http://www.kffl.com/fantasy-sports-blog/2011-nfl-draft%E2%80%99s-weak-qb-class-worries-me/2011/02/08

So the "weak" 2011 draft class has already produced the OROTY, two pro bowlers, and NFC champ Colin Kaepernick. Maybe draftniks get it wrong sometimes? Besides, the quality of the QB "class" is irrelevant if you get the right guy. 2005 was pretty bad too, except for that Rodgers guy.

[better days]

What better players? You act like there are better guys just hanging out unsigned. This where you hurt your credibility. You just assume that Buddy is going to pull replacements out of his ass. We have 6 draft picks and you want to use one on a QB. Every single one of them would have to be a hit just to replace what we lost from last year. And then we still have other holes and no dept.

There is also this thing called FREE AGENCY. The Bills will be players in that. And they have an EXTRA $7 Million to spend with the cutting of Fitz as I have said before.

[OpIv37]

http://www.thesaintsnation.com/2011-articles/april/saints-nation-2011-quarterback-draft-class-exceptionally-weak.html
http://www.realclearsports.com/2011/02/26/weak_qb_class_after_top_2_prospects_86562.html
http://www.kffl.com/fantasy-sports-blog/2011-nfl-draft%E2%80%99s-weak-qb-class-worries-me/2011/02/08

So the "weak" 2011 draft class has already produced the OROTY, two pro bowlers, and NFC champ Colin Kaepernick. Maybe people get it wrong sometimes? Besides, the quality of the QB "class" is irrelevant if you get the right guy. 2005 was pretty bad too, except for that Rodgers guy.

And what makes you think Buffalo is capable of figuring out who the "right guy" is and making sure they are in a position to draft him?

[better days]

It's not a casino game.

The draft is pretty similar to a casino game.

[OpIv37]

There is also this thing called FREE AGENCY. The Bills will be players in that. And they have an EXTRA $7 Million to spend with the cutting of Fitz as I have said before.

And every single day, free agents are falling off the board while Nix sits on his hands. The opportunities to improve via FA are disappearing before our eyes.

[imbondz]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NFL_Draft

yuck. lol.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

And what makes you think Buffalo is capable of figuring out who the "right guy" is and making sure they are in a position to draft him?

If Buffalo sucks at drafting anything, why do we bother drafting? You can't hide behind this argument "Oh well, we'd just **** it up even if we tried."

[OpIv37]

The draft is pretty similar to a casino game.

No, it's really not. This is BS.

The draft carries some element of risk and there is never any guarantee that a selection won't be a bust. There is no exact science. But some teams are so consistently good at it while others are consistently bad. There are things teams can do to increase their chances of getting it right, unlike random games of chance. If the draft were truly random, the results would be much more evenly distributed.

[better days]

You are right on the importance of the QB. You are wrong on the bolded part, hence this discussion.

Well, you are probably right that there is a good QB somewhere in this draft. Whether or not Buffalo will have the opportunity to draft him is a different story.

Well, if the Bills draft a QB at #8 the probability is much greater they get a GOOD QB than if they wait.

[OpIv37]

If Buffalo sucks at drafting anything, why do we bother drafting? You can't hide behind this argument "Oh well, we'd just **** it up even if we tried."
I didn't make that argument.

I simply pointed out that it adds to the already extremely risky prospect of drafting one of these QB's at 8.

You guys are advocating pissing away the #8 overall draft pick for some pie-in-the-sky chance we get some all-pro QB who most likely isn't even there.

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Well, if the Bills draft a QB at #8 the probability is much greater they get a GOOD QB than if they wait.

Well, now, that depends on how many good QB's are in this draft and how many are still available at 8.

[better days]

I didn't make that argument.

I simply pointed out that it adds to the already extremely risky prospect of drafting one of these QB's at 8.

You guys are advocating pissing away the #8 overall draft pick for some pie-in-the-sky chance we get some all-pro QB who most likely isn't even there.

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Well, now, that depends on how many good QB's are in this draft and how many are still available at 8.

Nix said he thinks 2 or 3 QBs in the draft could be GOOD. I doubt more than one is drafted before 8.

[OpIv37]

Nix said he thinks 2 or 3 QBs in the draft could be GOOD. I doubt more than one is drafted before 8.

Could?

And you are really going to take the word of the GM responsible for the last 3 years of failure, talking to the media, a month before the draft?

[better days]

No, it's really not. This is BS.

The draft carries some element of risk and there is never any guarantee that a selection won't be a bust. There is no exact science. But some teams are so consistently good at it while others are consistently bad. There are things teams can do to increase their chances of getting it right, unlike random games of chance. If the draft were truly random, the results would be much more evenly distributed.

It is not BS, there are people that make a good living gambling. Just as some teams are good at drafting, some people are good at gambling. There are things GOOD gamblers do to increase their odds of winning just as their are things a team can do in the draft.

[better days]

Could?

And you are really going to take the word of the GM responsible for the last 3 years of failure, talking to the media, a month before the draft?

Nix may not be a great GM overall, but I think he is a very good judge of football players. Look at the Chargers while Nix was there & since he left. Talk about a bad three years, The Chargers have had a bad 3 years in the draft.

So yes, I will trust Nix to pick the right QB.

[mjt328]

Let's get something straight. It's not like QB supporters on this board are suggesting we waste a Top 10 draft pick on a Day 3 quarterback prospect.

Geno Smith would easily be a Top 10 selection in virtually every draft over the last 10-15 years. He's arguably a better prospect than Ryan Tannehill was last year. Matt Barkley would easily be a First Round pick in almost every one of those drafts. Sure they have weak points and drawbacks. They could end up becoming busts. But overall, they are solid prospects with a chance to be good starters in the NFL. And after dealing with Fitz, Trent, JP, Robosack, etc. over the past decade, there is a good chance that one or both will be available for us to pick.


BUT...Some of you think we can do better. Just wait until next year and surely a better quarterback prospect will fall in our lap.


So let me ask this question. When was the last time a can't-miss quarterback prospect dropped out of the Top 5? Better yet, how many times do quarterbacks of that caliber make it past the #1 pick overall? And what are the odds that we end up with the #1 or #2 overall pick, in a year that one of those can't-miss, once in a lifetime prospects is available?

Finding a good quarterback through trade or free agency is almost impossible. The only real option is the draft. And unless you completely bottom out during the right season - a player of Geno Smith/Matt Barkley's caliber is honestly the best you can hope for. Maybe you end up with a franchise quarterback like Matt Ryan. Maybe you get a bum like Blaine Gabbert. So you do your homework and take a chance.

[OpIv37]

It is not BS, there are people that make a good living gambling. Just as some teams are good at drafting, some people are good at gambling. There are things GOOD gamblers do to increase their odds of winning just as their are things a team can do in the draft.

People who make good money gambling don't play pure games of chance. They play games like poker, where there is chance but there is also an element of skill.

[OpIv37]

Let's get something straight. It's not like QB supporters on this board are suggesting we waste a Top 10 draft pick on a Day 3 quarterback prospect.

Geno Smith would easily be a Top 10 selection in virtually every draft over the last 10-15 years. He's arguably a better prospect than Ryan Tannehill was last year. Matt Barkley would easily be a First Round pick in almost every one of those drafts. Sure they have weak points and drawbacks. They could end up becoming busts. But overall, they are solid prospects with a chance to be good starters in the NFL. And after dealing with Fitz, Trent, JP, Robosack, etc. over the past decade, there is a good chance that one or both will be available for us to pick.


BUT...Some of you think we can do better. Just wait until next year and surely a better quarterback prospect will fall in our lap.


So let me ask this question. When was the last time a can't-miss quarterback prospect dropped out of the Top 5? Better yet, how many times do quarterbacks of that caliber make it past the #1 pick overall? And what are the odds that we end up with the #1 or #2 overall pick, in a year that one of those can't-miss, once in a lifetime prospects is available?

Finding a good quarterback through trade or free agency is almost impossible. The only real option is the draft. And unless you completely bottom out during the right season - a player of Geno Smith/Matt Barkley's caliber is honestly the best you can hope for. Maybe you end up with a franchise quarterback like Matt Ryan. Maybe you get a bum like Blaine Gabbert. So you do your homework and take a chance.

It's not just that we think we can do better. It's that we have a LOT of holes to fill. Why does QB need to be the first one? Even if Geno Smith turns out to be the next RGIII, we aren't winning jack **** this year with all the other holes on this team. When the team has this many needs, there is no reason to force something that isn't there.

[Captain Obvious]

Even if Geno Smith turns out to be the next RGIII, we aren't winning jack **** this year

OMG i cant believe you said that. You wouldnt want the next RGIII with the 8th overall pick. Unbelievable

[OpIv37]

OMG i cant believe you said that. You wouldnt want the next RGIII with the 8th overall pick. Unbelievable

That's not even close to what I said. Work on your reading comprehension.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

It's not just that we think we can do better. It's that we have a LOT of holes to fill. Why does QB need to be the first one? Even if Geno Smith turns out to be the next RGIII, we aren't winning jack **** this year with all the other holes on this team. When the team has this many needs, there is no reason to force something that isn't there.

Ok, take the Redskins. In 2011, they had the 21st ranked offense and the 26th ranked defense. They had nearly as many holes as we do. In 2012 they doubled their win total and fielded a top 5 offense despite their defense actually allowing more points, and won a division title.

[OpIv37]

Ok, take the Redskins. In 2011, they had the 21st ranked offense and the 26th ranked defense. They had nearly as many holes as we do. In 2012 they doubled their win total and fielded a top 5 offense despite their defense actually allowing more points, and won a division title.

Nearly as many holes? So, we are starting from a worse point than they are by your own admission.

Their whole division tanked last year. We have the Patriots and the Fish are on their way up.

Even if they trade RGIII to us right now, we'd be lucky to equal last year's win total, let alone double it.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Nearly as many holes? So, we are starting from a worse point than they are by your own admission.

Slightly. We have more talent on D than they did and much better talent in the backfield (at the time), plus a 2nd round pick that they didn't have.


Their whole division tanked last year.

The Giants and Cowboys finished with the exact same records. The differences being that a) in 2011 9-7 was enough to get the Giants into the playoffs and b) the Cowboys were actually better in 2012, as they swept the Redskins in 2011 but lost both to them in 2012. Had they beaten the Skins even once, they'd have been NFC East champs instead.


We have the Patriots and the Fish are on their way up.

The Giants have won two Super Bowls and were the defending champs last year.


Even if they trade RGIII to us right now, we'd be lucky to equal last year's win total, let alone double it.

BS. Just look at what dominant QBs do to an entire franchise. Even as bad as our team was last year, we were in position to win at least 4 games with competent quarterbacking and Fitz Fitzed them all away.

[OpIv37]

Slightly. We have more talent on D than they did and much better talent in the backfield (at the time), plus a 2nd round pick that they didn't have.

You can't be serious. They have Orakpo, Carriker, Kerrigan and Fletcher. We don't have more talent than that.



The Giants and Cowboys finished with the exact same records. The differences being that a) in 2011 9-7 was enough to get the Giants into the playoffs and b) the Cowboys were actually better in 2012, as they swept the Redskins in 2011 but lost both to them in 2012. Had they beaten the Skins even once, they'd have been NFC East champs instead.

There aren't going to be two 9-7 teams in the AFCE. Both the Fish and Pats will be better than that.



The Giants have won two Super Bowls and were the defending champs last year.

And they still only got to 9-7 last year. The Pats are easily 3 years away from that kind of collapse.



BS. Just look at what dominant QBs do to an entire franchise. Even as bad as our team was last year, we were in position to win at least 4 games with competent quarterbacking and Fitz Fitzed them all away.

Disagree. This team had way too many holes last year and now has even more this year. A competent QB this year MIGHT get to 6 wins again.

[Mouldsie]

He's arguably a better prospect than Ryan Tannehill was last year.

Matt Barkley would easily be a First Round pick in almost every one of those drafts.


Maybe you end up with a franchise quarterback like Matt Ryan.
Maybe you get a bum like Blaine Gabbert.
So you do your homework and take a chance.

False.
False.
Maybe.
Not on my watch.
You mitigate the element of chance by being a good talent evaluator. I hope our braintrust gets it right.

[Mouldsie]

Slightly. We have more talent on D than they did and much better talent in the backfield (at the time), plus a 2nd round pick that they didn't have.



The Giants and Cowboys finished with the exact same records. The differences being that a) in 2011 9-7 was enough to get the Giants into the playoffs and b) the Cowboys were actually better in 2012, as they swept the Redskins in 2011 but lost both to them in 2012. Had they beaten the Skins even once, they'd have been NFC East champs instead.



The Giants have won two Super Bowls and were the defending champs last year.



BS. Just look at what dominant QBs do to an entire franchise. Even as bad as our team was last year, we were in position to win at least 4 games with competent quarterbacking and Fitz Fitzed them all away.


Welcome to where I was last year, you know, when the QB's in the draft had brighter futures and better talent.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

You can't be serious. They have Orakpo, Carriker, Kerrigan and Fletcher. We don't have more talent than that.

The Orakpo and Carriker they IR'd after Week 2? Surely you aren't going to credit them for Washington's turnaround, the team was 1-1 wen they went out. Kerrigan and Fletcher are legit but Fletcher is 37 years old. You can't rely on him much longer.


There aren't going to be two 9-7 teams in the AFCE. Both the Fish and Pats will be better than that.

It's interesting how highly you regard the Fish. They had the 27th ranked offense last year, and yet you see them as an incoming powerhouse. Could it be because they finally have a quarterback? Even a risky one taken over safe picks like Kuechly and Gilmore?


And they still only got to 9-7 last year. The Pats are easily 3 years away from that kind of collapse.

Assuming Brady keeps playing dominant football until he is 39 years old. This model Pats team isn't nearly as good as the 2008 model that won 11 games without him.


Disagree. This team had way too many holes last year and now has even more this year. A competent QB this year MIGHT get to 6 wins again.

Competent QB, maybe. A superlative QB like RG3 would take us further than that.


Welcome to where I was last year, you know, when the QB's in the draft had brighter futures and better talent.

Well I was banging the drum to draft a QB then too. Instead we got TJ Graham.

[Albany,n.y.]

Originally Posted by mjt328
Maybe you get a bum like Blaine Gabbert.


Not on my watch.


Are you conducting the Bills draft?

[Mouldsie]

Well I was banging the drum to draft a QB then too. Instead we got TJ Graham.
Which is why we are in this mess right now

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Are you conducting the Bills draft?
I wish. So should Bills fans

[kingJofNYC]

Carriker is a nobody, hasn't done much in the NFL.

[mjt328]

It's not just that we think we can do better. It's that we have a LOT of holes to fill. Why does QB need to be the first one? Even if Geno Smith turns out to be the next RGIII, we aren't winning jack **** this year with all the other holes on this team. When the team has this many needs, there is no reason to force something that isn't there.

Why does QB need to be the first hole fixed? Are you serious?

Nix has spent the last 3 years vitually ignoring the QB position. He's drafted linemen, defensive backs, linebackers, running backs and wide receivers. As a team, we haven't seriously addressed the quarterback position since Tom Donahoe was in charge.

Do I really need to point out 70 years of football history, so that you can understand the quarterback position is BY FAR the most important position in the sport?

[Mouldsie]

Do I really need to point out 70 years of football history, so that you can understand the quarterback position is BY FAR the most important position in the sport?
That's why you dont want to pick one that sucks

[mjt328]

That's why you dont want to pick one that sucks

So... For the fear of taking a sucky QB, we will completely ignore the position until the next Andrew Luck drops into our laps in the year 2089.

[OpIv37]

Why does QB need to be the first hole fixed? Are you serious?

Nix has spent the last 3 years vitually ignoring the QB position. He's drafted linemen, defensive backs, linebackers, running backs and wide receivers. As a team, we haven't seriously addressed the quarterback position since Tom Donahoe was in charge.

Do I really need to point out 70 years of football history, so that you can understand the quarterback position is BY FAR the most important position in the sport?
I agree that Nix has ****ed up by ignoring the QB position.

But, again, round peg, square hole. We've created a need and the player to fill it simply isn't there. Forcing something that isn't there isn't going to make up for past failures to address the QB position. You are advocating passing on the opportunity to fill another hole in order to take a wild long shot on a QB. The more logical thing to do is fill another hole, take a flyer on QB LATER in the draft when the opportunity cost is lower, and hope either that works out or we get a shot at a better prospect next year. Once again, Buffalo's need for a QB doesn't automatically make a franchise QB available to us.

[k-oneputt]

You guys may not have to worry about Geno and Barkley because Oakland and Arizona will be taking them unless we trade up.

[OpIv37]

You guys may not have to worry about Geno and Barkley because Oakland and Arizona will be taking them unless we trade up.

that actually could result in the only thing worse than taking Geno or Barkley at 8: the FO panicking and taking Nassib at 8. It'll be "oh no they took Huff! Who's the next S on the board?....Donte who? Ok, just take him- our time is almost up" all over again.

[Captain Obvious]

The Orakpo and Carriker they IR'd after Week 2? Surely you aren't going to credit them for Washington's turnaround, the team was 1-1 wen they went out.












Bazinga!!!

[psubills62]

Both methods have been shown to work - get a QB, build a team around him, or build a team then get a QB that fits. Both methods have shown to fail also. The key is, as always, drafting well and having coaches who properly utilize talent. If you don't draft well, then neither method will work, but if you do, then either should work fine.