For those who think this years QB crop sucks

[Ginger Vitis]

And want to wait until next year to take Johnny Manziel..Teddy Bridgewater..Tahj Boyd with the 1st overall pick

The Bills have only picked in the Top 5 twice in the last 13 years (4th 2002) (3rd 2011) dont assume they will be picking Top 5 in 2014

Whoever you think is the "it" guy for nex t year just remember last offseason Matt Barkley was suppose to go 1st overall this year and that is nowhere close to happening..

Stop waiting for next year the Bills FO needs to get a QB early in the draft this year!!!

[sukie]

Select a QB in either of the first 2 rounds every ******* year until one hits. All the other selections are moot until there is a QB stud.

[OpIv37]

And want to wait until next year to take Johnny Manziel..Teddy Bridgewater..Tahj Boyd with the 1st overall pick

The Bills have only picked in the Top 5 twice in the last 13 years (4th 2002) (3rd 2011) dont assume they will be picking Top 5 in 2014

Whoever you think is the "it" guy for nex t year just remember last offseason Matt Barkley was suppose to go 1st overall this year and that is nowhere close to happening..

Stop waiting for next year the Bills FO needs to get a QB early in the draft this year!!!
The Bills need to get a QB early in the draft- this is true.

The Bills' needs, however, have nothing to do with the availability of QB's worthy of high draft picks.

Your post has nothing to do with the quality of the QB's available THIS year- it's simply a warning about what may or may not happen next year.

The Bills absolutely have to get someone with the #8 team who makes the team significantly better. None of the QB's in this draft are likely to do that, and your post warning about next year's QB's doesn't change that.

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Select a QB in either of the first 2 rounds every ******* year until one hits. All the other selections are moot until there is a QB stud.

Once again, a major reason why the Bills have sucked for the last 13 years is poor drafting. This strategy all but guarantees that the poor drafting will continue.

[Ginger Vitis]

Your post has nothing to do with the quality of the QB's available THIS year-




A GM who is confident in his abilities to identify talent and does thorough work would be a ble to draft a good QB from this years crop. And I realize the current Bills GM seems incapable of doing that..And someone will bring up the 2007 QB class.. Whatever.. A good GM could find a QB in this draft class

[better days]

The Bills need to get a QB early in the draft- this is true.

The Bills' needs, however, have nothing to do with the availability of QB's worthy of high draft picks.

Your post has nothing to do with the quality of the QB's available THIS year- it's simply a warning about what may or may not happen next year.

The Bills absolutely have to get someone with the #8 team who makes the team significantly better. None of the QB's in this draft are likely to do that, and your post warning about next year's QB's doesn't change that.

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Once again, a major reason why the Bills have sucked for the last 13 years is poor drafting. This strategy all but guarantees that the poor drafting will continue.

OK which future HOF player would you have the Bills draft at #8 instead of QB?

[OpIv37]

A GM who is confident in his abilities to identify talent and does thorough work would be a ble to draft a good QB from this years crop. And I realize the current Bills GM seems incapable of doing that..And someone will bring up the 2007 QB class.. Whatever.. A good GM could find a QB in this draft class

Even the best GM can't find something that isn't there.

[Joe Fo Sho]

Select a QB in either of the first 2 rounds every ******* year until one hits. All the other selections are moot until there is a QB stud.

No thanks.

[OpIv37]

OK which future HOF player would you have the Bills draft at #8 instead of QB?

Don't know because I haven't had time to look into all the players available all that much.

I have looked into the QB's and none of them are worth the #8.

I'm guessing you haven't looked into any of the other players either, given your myopic view that we absolutely have to pick a QB at 8 no matter what.

[Ginger Vitis]

Even the best GM can't find something that isn't there.
This is a excuse and a defeatist attitude.. If Im the owner of a NFL team I dont want to hear that and wonder why I was employing you.. I bet Draftboy is confident he could get a Good Qb with in the 1st 3 Rounds

[better days]

Don't know because I haven't had time to look into all the players available all that much.

I have looked into the QB's and none of them are worth the #8.

I'm guessing you haven't looked into any of the other players either, given your myopic view that we absolutely have to pick a QB at 8 no matter what.


Well, I have looked at the players that people have proposed the Bills take at #8. ALL of them have questions about how they will produce in the NFL just as the QBs do.

There is no sure thing can't miss prospect in this draft at ANY position. There is no Warren Sapp or Derrick Brooks or Bruce Smith.

I would rather gamble on a QB than any other position because the Bills NEED a QB & it is the most important position in Football.

And make no mistake about it, EVERY prospect drafted this year will be a gamble.

[OpIv37]

This is a excuse and a defeatist attitude.. If Im the owner of a NFL team I dont want to hear that and wonder why I was employing you.. I bet Draftboy is confident he could get a Good Qb with in the 1st 3 Rounds

LMAO- "I hired you to find something that doesn't exist, and I'm gonna be pretty pissed off if you can't do it!"

Reality is not an excuse. Reality is not defeatist. Some things just are what they are.

If you want to get on Nix for being here 4 years and not finding a QB, I'm with you. If you want to get on Nix for pigeon-holing ourselves into needing a QB when none are available, I'm with you. If you want to get on Nix for not getting a QB in THIS draft, that's where you lose me. There just isn't one- certainly not with the 8th pick. Maybe he'll get lucky and find something in round 2 or 3, but even that's unlikely.

[Don't Panic]

Even the best GM can't find something that isn't there.

Op is right... while we need to dismiss the "wait til next year" thinking, we can't reach. The only guy worth the top 10 this year appears to be Geno. If we want to trade back into the end of the 1st for a guy we can justify taking there, so be it. Otherwise, we'll have to decide if any of the guys left with our 2nd are worth it. If they don't like one, no need to force it. Same goes for the 3rd round.

Realizing that we shouldn't wait doesn't mean we need to reach, or force, a pick.

[OpIv37]

Well, I have looked at the players that people have proposed the Bills take at #8. ALL of them have questions about how they will produce in the NFL just as the QBs do.

There is no sure thing can't miss prospect in this draft at ANY position. There is no Warren Sapp or Derrick Brooks or Bruce Smith.

I would rather gamble on a QB than any other position because the Bills NEED a QB & it is the most important position in Football.

And make no mistake about it, EVERY prospect drafted this year will be a gamble.
Except that not every prospect is an EQUAL gamble.

The QB's are a much bigger gamble, and the Bills simply can't afford to miss with this pick. That's why taking the bigger gamble is not smart.

[better days]

Op is right... while we need to dismiss the "wait til next year" thinking, we can't reach. The only guy worth the top 10 this year appears to be Geno. If we want to trade back into the end of the 1st for a guy we can justify taking there, so be it. Otherwise, we'll have to decide if any of the guys left with our 2nd are worth it. If they don't like one, no need to force it. Same goes for the 3rd round.

Realizing that we shouldn't wait doesn't mean we need to reach, or force, a pick.

Like I said, there is NO sure thing in this draft at ANY position. It is a GAMBLE no matter who the Bills pick & no matter the position he plays.

I would like the name of the player the Bills should take at #8 & be told he is a guaranteed future Pro Bowl player.

[better days]

Except that not every prospect is an EQUAL gamble.

The QB's are a much bigger gamble, and the Bills simply can't afford to miss with this pick. That's why taking the bigger gamble is not smart.

Explain to me why the Bills can't afford to miss with this pick. What makes this year any more important than the year Maybin was picked in the first rnd or the year Mike Williams was picked in the first rnd?

I would rather put my chips in the middle of the table on a QB than to fold & have NO CHANCE to win.

[OpIv37]

Like I said, there is NO sure thing in this draft at ANY position. It is a GAMBLE no matter who the Bills pick & no matter the position he plays.

I would like the name of the player the Bills should take at #8 & be told he is a guaranteed future Pro Bowl player.

Such a ridiculous argument: Well you can't guarantee that guy will be a Pro Bowl player, so take a QB.

[better days]

Such a ridiculous argument: Well you can't guarantee that guy will be a Pro Bowl player, so take a QB.

A QB has just as much of a chance to be a Pro Bowl player in this draft than any other player at any other position.

[OpIv37]

Explain to me why the Bills can't afford to miss with this pick. What makes this year any more important than the year Maybin was picked in the first rnd or the year Mike Williams was picked in the first rnd?

I would rather put my chips in the middle of the table on a QB than to fold & have NO CHANCE to win.

It's not any more important. It's the same importance. The Bills couldn't afford to miss with the Williams or Maybin picks too. They did. What was the result? Several years of losing.

You just shot down your own argument. If you miss with the pick, you lose, and you're advocating taking a much bigger gamble. Completely illogical.

[jpdex12]

I know value is important with draft picks but what it boils down to is if a team wants a player bad enough and doesn't want to run the risk of losing him to another team before they draft then they draft that player regardless of where they select him. There is no exact science in the draft!

[OpIv37]

A QB has just as much of a chance to be a Pro Bowl player in this draft than any other player at any other position.

Wrong. Completely wrong.

this is why you are so off base. Your whole argument is based on a faulty premise.

There are metrics and performance and size and skill and other things that are measured before players are drafted. Nothing is 100%, but QB's who have metrics like these QB's rarely if ever become Pro Bowl players. That's not true for all the other guys at every position in the draft.

Every draft pick is a gamble to some degree. Not every draft pick is an equal gamble and not every draft pick has an equal chance of being successful. The draft is not a slot machine. Until you get that through your head, you will continue to be off base.

[jpdex12]

With all that has changed with regard to the cost to draft a first rounder it doesn't matter as much anymore whether the pick happens at #8 or #22.

[better days]

It's not any more important. It's the same importance. The Bills couldn't afford to miss with the Williams or Maybin picks too. They did. What was the result? Several years of losing.

You just shot down your own argument. If you miss with the pick, you lose, and you're advocating taking a much bigger gamble. Completely illogical.

How is drafting a QB a bigger gamble than drafting Aaron Maybin or Mike Williams?

Unless you can name a player that is a SURE THING future Pro Bowl pick, no matter who is drafted will be a GAMBLE.

[OpIv37]

I know value is important with draft picks but what it boils down to is if a team wants a player bad enough and doesn't want to run the risk of losing him to another team before they draft then they draft that player regardless of where they select him. There is no exact science in the draft!

well that logic can be used to justify picking someone with a 6th round grade in the first round.

- - - Updated - - -


With all that has changed with regard to the cost to draft a first rounder it doesn't matter as much anymore whether the pick happens at #8 or #22.

Yes it does. It's not all about the cap and money. It's about on-field performance. A major reason the Bills have sucked for the last 13 years is bad drafting, particularly in the early rounds. Pick the wrong guy, you lose.

[better days]

well that logic can be used to justify picking someone with a 6th round grade in the first round.

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Yes it does. It's not all about the cap and money. It's about on-field performance. A major reason the Bills have sucked for the last 13 years is bad drafting, particularly in the early rounds. Pick the wrong guy, you lose.

No matter how many good players you have, without a GOOD QB, you LOSE.

[OpIv37]

How is drafting a QB a bigger gamble than drafting Aaron Maybin or Mike Williams?

Unless you can name a player that is a SURE THING future Pro Bowl pick, no matter who is drafted will be a GAMBLE.

QB'S ARE HARDER TO JUDGE THAN OTHER POSITIONS.

I never said those guys weren't gambles. I said the QB's, particularly these QB's, are BIGGER gambles because the position is harder to evaluate and their metrics aren't good. NO ONE can ever name a guy who will be a pro bowl player prior to the draft EVER. That doesn't change what I just said about QB's being bigger gambles.

[OpIv37]

No matter how many good players you have, without a GOOD QB, you LOSE.

And you can lose if you have a good QB and the wrong players around him. We need a QB, we need a lot of other players too. It's stupid to pass on the opportunity to get a good player to take a ridiculous gamble on a QB. It wreaks of desperation and is not a recipe for success. It's like spending your last $100 on lotto tickets rather than food and a jacket to stay warm.

Oh, and for the 100,000th time: our need for a QB doesn't make a good one available.

[better days]

QB'S ARE HARDER TO JUDGE THAN OTHER POSITIONS.

I never said those guys weren't gambles. I said the QB's, particularly these QB's, are BIGGER gambles because the position is harder to evaluate and their metrics aren't good. NO ONE can ever name a guy who will be a pro bowl player prior to the draft EVER. That doesn't change what I just said about QB's being bigger gambles.

Like I have said before SO WHAT if they are a bigger gamble. It is a gamble the Bills need to take.

It is still a gamble no matter who is picked. Who would have thought Mike Williams would turn out to be the bust he was?

And the draft is not like a slot machine, it is more like Poker. There is an element of skill involved.

[OpIv37]

Like I have said before SO WHAT if they are a bigger gamble. It is a gamble the Bills need to take.

It is still a gamble no matter who is picked. Who would have thought Mike Williams would turn out to be the bust he was?

And the draft is not like a slot machine, it is more like Poker. There is an element of skill involved.
Right, and a skilled poker player doesn't go all in on ace high with all their food and rent money for the next 3 months, which is what drafting one of these QB's at 8 amounts too.

The Bills need someone who improves the team in this draft. We can't afford more losing. We can't afford another Aaron Maybin or Mike Williams. That's why it's stupid to take the bigger gamble.

[better days]

Right, and a skilled poker player doesn't go all in on ace high with all their food and rent money for the next 3 months, which is what drafting one of these QB's at 8 amounts too.

The Bills need someone who improves the team in this draft. We can't afford more losing. We can't afford another Aaron Maybin or Mike Williams. That's why it's stupid to take the bigger gamble.

Ace high would mean NONE of these QBs have a snowballs chance in hell of being good. That is just a false premise. The is a good chance that a few of these QBs will have good careers.

Until the Bills get a GOOD QB they will continue to lose & be mediocre at best.

[OpIv37]

Ace high would mean NONE of these QBs have a snowballs chance in hell of being good. That is just a false premise. The is a good chance that a few of these QBs will have good careers.

Until the Bills get a GOOD QB they will continue to lose & be mediocre at best.

This is true.

However, that doesn't make any of these QB's worth the #8 overall pick. We have too many holes to piss away draft picks on ridiculous gambles. I'll take the less risky gamble and try to plug another hole. Once again, we need a QB. That doesn't mean that this draft pick is a legitimate opportunity to get one.

[Don't Panic]

Op... do you think Geno is worth drafting at #8?

[OpIv37]

Op... do you think Geno is worth drafting at #8?

He's probably the least bad option, but I'd rather see us go in a different direction and get someone at a less risky position.

That being said, it's probably irrelevant because Oak or Az will likely grab him before us.

[better days]

This is true.

However, that doesn't make any of these QB's worth the #8 overall pick. We have too many holes to piss away draft picks on ridiculous gambles. I'll take the less risky gamble and try to plug another hole. Once again, we need a QB. That doesn't mean that this draft pick is a legitimate opportunity to get one.

So you would take a player at a position other than QB knowing the Bills will continue to be MEDIOCRE.

The Bills do have a LEGITIMATE opportunity to draft a good QB in this draft. There is no Luck or RGIII, but it is very likely there is a Kaepernick or Wilson or Dalton in this draft. The problem is with no Luck or RGIII, the GOOD but not GREAT prospects will be drafted higher than if there were.

It is much less of a gamble to take a QB when there are more to choose from than to wait & settle for the bottom of the barrel to pick from.

[OpIv37]

So you would take a player at a position other than QB knowing the Bills will continue to be MEDIOCRE.

The Bills do have a LEGITIMATE opportunity to draft a good QB in this draft. There is no Luck or RGIII, but it is very likely there is a Kaepernick or Wilson or Dalton in this draft. The problem is with no Luck or RGIII, the GOOD but not GREAT prospects will be drafted higher than if there were.

It is much less of a gamble to take a QB when there are more to choose from than to wait & settle for the bottom of the barrel to pick from.
News flash: even if the Bills get Geno and he turns out to be great, they are still going to be mediocre until they get help at WR, OG, LB, CB at a minimum.

And you accuse me of wanting mediocrity, then you say you are willing to gamble for a prospect who is good but not great. Huh?

A good but not great quarterback will NEVER win on a team with as many holes as the Bills.

And if we can get a Wilson or Kaepernik or Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd, I'll be thrilled with that, but it's stupid to burn a #8 pick on a guy hoping that maybe he's as good as diamond-in-the-rough 2nd and 3rd round players from previous drafts.

[Don't Panic]

News flash: even if the Bills get Geno and he turns out to be great, they are still going to be mediocre until they get help at WR, OG, LB, CB at a minimum.

And you accuse me of wanting mediocrity, then you say you are willing to gamble for a prospect who is good but not great. Huh?

A good but not great quarterback will NEVER win on a team with as many holes as the Bills.

And if we can get a Wilson or Kaepernik or Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd, I'll be thrilled with that, but it's stupid to burn a #8 pick on a guy hoping that maybe he's as good as diamond-in-the-rough 2nd and 3rd round players from previous drafts.

But if Geno works out then we have moved a monumental obstacle out of the way. Even if he's never top 5, its one less thing... one less HUGE thing. That's why I say he's worth it if he's there and might be worth the trade up. In terms of the 2nd/3rd... that's where I'll trust what Buddy, Dougx2 and Hackett think may be a fit. But if we don't draft a QB until the 4th or later, I don't necessarily view that as a bad thing, especially since there is guaranteed to be a sub-mediocre journeyman ready to compete with TJax.

[better days]

News flash: even if the Bills get Geno and he turns out to be great, they are still going to be mediocre until they get help at WR, OG, LB, CB at a minimum.

And you accuse me of wanting mediocrity, then you say you are willing to gamble for a prospect who is good but not great. Huh?

A good but not great quarterback will NEVER win on a team with as many holes as the Bills.

And if we can get a Wilson or Kaepernik or Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd, I'll be thrilled with that, but it's stupid to burn a #8 pick on a guy hoping that maybe he's as good as diamond-in-the-rough 2nd and 3rd round players from previous drafts.

A good prospect may tun out to be a GREAT player & a great prospect may turn out to be a MEDIOCRE player.

If you could tell me of a player that is a guaranteed future Pro Bowl player at another position, then it would be worth the risk to miss on a QB in favor of drafting him, but there is no such player in this draft.

[better days]

News flash: even if the Bills get Geno and he turns out to be great, they are still going to be mediocre until they get help at WR, OG, LB, CB at a minimum.

And you accuse me of wanting mediocrity, then you say you are willing to gamble for a prospect who is good but not great. Huh?

A good but not great quarterback will NEVER win on a team with as many holes as the Bills.

And if we can get a Wilson or Kaepernik or Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd, I'll be thrilled with that, but it's stupid to burn a #8 pick on a guy hoping that maybe he's as good as diamond-in-the-rough 2nd and 3rd round players from previous drafts.

The Bills do have more than one draft pick. Those other needs will be addressed in the draft & FA. But you can't get a QB that is any good in FA & much less likely to get a GOOD QB the further down the draft you pick him.

[OpIv37]

The Bills do have more than one draft pick. Those other needs will be addressed in the draft & FA. But you can't get a QB that is any good in FA & much less likely to get a GOOD QB the further down the draft you pick him.

Really? how many starting WR's and LB's and CB's are sitting out there in rounds 2-6?

And FA? You keep saying this, but FA's are falling off the table as we speak while the Bills do nothing. We just lost Kellar to the Fish. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to fill holes in FA.

And in some drafts, you can't get a good QB even at 8....

[OpIv37]

A good prospect may tun out to be a GREAT player & a great prospect may turn out to be a MEDIOCRE player.

If you could tell me of a player that is a guaranteed future Pro Bowl player at another position, then it would be worth the risk to miss on a QB in favor of drafting him, but there is no such player in this draft.
enough of this ****ing NONSENSE.

There are never any guaranteed Pro Bowl players at ANY position in ANY draft.

That doesn't mean we should risk the #8 pick on one of these QB's. There is no logical connection there no matter how many times you say it.

[better days]

Really? how many starting WR's and LB's and CB's are sitting out there in rounds 2-6?

And FA? You keep saying this, but FA's are falling off the table as we speak while the Bills do nothing. We just lost Kellar to the Fish. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to fill holes in FA.

And in some drafts, you can't get a good QB even at 8....


THIS YEAR, there will be PLENTY of LBs & WRs in rnds 2-6. This is a deep draft for both those positions. And there are going to be plenty of FAs available to choose from. It is not like Keller is Gronk we missed out on. He is good, not great.

[OpIv37]

THIS YEAR, there will be PLENTY of LBs & WRs in rnds 2-6. This is a deep draft for both those positions. And there are going to be plenty of FAs available to choose from. It is not like Keller is Gronk we missed out on. He is good, not great.

So, it's ok to pass on Keller because he's good but not great, yet, it's not OK to avoid risking the #8 pick on a QB prospect who is "good not great" by your own admission.

[TigerJ]

I've never thought that the QBs in this draft are worse than normal except for the lack of a "can't miss" elite prospect. Looking at next year, I don't think anyone would deny than Johnny Manziel is uber talented. He's similar to RG3, except maybe more free wheeling. I think he'll be a good pro too, but his fans are always going to worry about when he gets clobbered upon leaving the pocket on a scramble. Tajh Boyd reminds me more of Russell Wilson. Teddy Bridgewater, well I'm not too sure except I think he's more of a passé than a runner. I think you're right in that there is no guarantee they will be regarded in the same way hey are currently. There's no way of knowing for sure where they will be drafted either. Odds are a couple of them will be drafted top 5, but which two. The third might go top ten. Personally, I didn't go for the "suck for Luck" notion and I don't like the idea of a "suck for whomever" campaign next season. I don't expect playoffs next season, but I have hopes that Buffalo is drafting outside of the top 10 next season, so, if we passed on one of the better QBs early in the draft this year, there is no guarantee we won't be looking at the "best of the rest" next year.

[Ginger Vitis]

Really? how many starting WR's and LB's and CB's are sitting out there in rounds 2-6?



Thank God you're not the GM of the Bills once the 1st Round was over you would have no confidence in getting starters for the Bills

[DraftBoy]

And want to wait until next year to take Johnny Manziel..Teddy Bridgewater..Tahj Boyd with the 1st overall pick

The Bills have only picked in the Top 5 twice in the last 13 years (4th 2002) (3rd 2011) dont assume they will be picking Top 5 in 2014

Whoever you think is the "it" guy for nex t year just remember last offseason Matt Barkley was suppose to go 1st overall this year and that is nowhere close to happening..

Stop waiting for next year the Bills FO needs to get a QB early in the draft this year!!!

Are you implying you don't think Teddy Bridgewater is any good?

[OpIv37]

Thank God you're not the GM of the Bills once the 1st Round was over you would have no confidence in getting starters for the Bills

I certainly have no confidence in THIS GM to find starters later in the draft.

They've found a few who are TECHNICALLY NFL starters because they start for us, but they wouldn't be on most teams.

Oh, and when you're looking for 1 or 2 starters, you can find them later in the draft. When you're looking for 5 or 6 and you only have 6 draft picks, good ****ing luck.

[Ginger Vitis]

Are you implying you don't think Teddy Bridgewater is any good?
I do like Teddy Bridgewater a lot..

[sukie]

I certainly have no confidence in THIS GM to find starters later in the draft.

They've found a few who are TECHNICALLY NFL starters because they start for us, but they wouldn't be on most teams.

Oh, and when you're looking for 1 or 2 starters, you can find them later in the draft. When you're looking for 5 or 6 and you only have 6 draft picks, good ****ing luck.

Atleast he didn't draft a center in the 1st round

[sukie]

Once again, a major reason why the Bills have sucked for the last 13 years is poor drafting. This strategy all but guarantees that the poor drafting will continue.

I think NOT getting a franchise QB underscores the drafting the last decade plus. That has guaranteed the Bills as they are now.

[OpIv37]

I think NOT getting a franchise QB underscores the drafting the last decade plus. That has guaranteed the Bills as they are now.

QB is the most important position on the field, but not so important that you can blow off every single other position for a QB.

[sukie]

I understand that but drafting studs here and there and NOT having a QB allows for no playoff stress. I want some freaking stress. Plus the good drafted players seek playoff stress once FA hits. Getting outta no playoff or QB dodge is really getting old.

[mjt328]

News flash: even if the Bills get Geno and he turns out to be great, they are still going to be mediocre until they get help at WR, OG, LB, CB at a minimum.

And you accuse me of wanting mediocrity, then you say you are willing to gamble for a prospect who is good but not great. Huh?

A good but not great quarterback will NEVER win on a team with as many holes as the Bills.

And if we can get a Wilson or Kaepernik or Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd, I'll be thrilled with that, but it's stupid to burn a #8 pick on a guy hoping that maybe he's as good as diamond-in-the-rough 2nd and 3rd round players from previous drafts.

One thing you have to account for, is that not all positions are of equal value.

You could have the greatest punter in the history of the NFL, and his impact on the success of a team is going to be marginal. Granted that is an extreme example, but it does a lot to prove my point. Quarterback is BY FAR the most important position in the NFL, and it's not even remotely close.

Just look at Larry Fitzgerald last season. Possibly the best wide receiver in football and his talent was completely put to waste because of bad quarterback play. Few would argue that Joe Thomas is the best left tackle in football. But his team never makes the playoffs, because Thomas is blocking for scrubs. Adrian Peterson put together one of the best rushing seasons in the history of football and his team barely scraped into the playoffs, because Christian Ponder isn't very good. Meanwhile, guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler (who aren't even elite at their positions) are absolutely vital to the success of their teams.

Land a Top 10 offensive tackle, wide receiver, running back, tight end, defensive lineman, linebacker, cornerback or safety - and your team could still be a long way from competing. Land a Top 10 quarterback and you are instantly a playoff (if not Super Bowl) contender for the next 10-15 years. It's not a coincidence that both Andrew Luck and RGIII turned bad franchises around in only one season, and both made the playoffs in their rookie years.

Good Quarterback >>>>>> Great Any Other Position

[OpIv37]

One thing you have to account for, is that not all positions are of equal value.

You could have the greatest punter in the history of the NFL, and his impact on the success of a team is going to be marginal. Granted that is an extreme example, but it does a lot to prove my point. Quarterback is BY FAR the most important position in the NFL, and it's not even remotely close.

Just look at Larry Fitzgerald last season. Possibly the best wide receiver in football and his talent was completely put to waste because of bad quarterback play. Few would argue that Joe Thomas is the best left tackle in football. But his team never makes the playoffs, because Thomas is blocking for scrubs. Adrian Peterson put together one of the best rushing seasons in the history of football and his team barely scraped into the playoffs, because Christian Ponder isn't very good. Meanwhile, guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler (who aren't even elite at their positions) are absolutely vital to the success of their teams.

Land a Top 10 offensive tackle, wide receiver, running back, tight end, defensive lineman, linebacker, cornerback or safety - and your team could still be a long way from competing. Land a Top 10 quarterback and you are instantly a playoff (if not Super Bowl) contender for the next 10-15 years. It's not a coincidence that both Andrew Luck and RGIII turned bad franchises around in only one season, and both made the playoffs in their rookie years.

Good Quarterback >>>>>> Great Any Other Position

This is simply not true.

What were Drew Brees and Eli Manning doing during the playoffs this year?

And you're right about RGIII but wrong about Luck turning around a bad franchise. The Colts are a great franchise that was built around having a great QB. They sucked for one year without Manning. Luck was able to come in and get them to the playoffs because they were built around the QB position. The Bills have no such talent. Even if we get Smith and he turns out to be as good as Luck, he's not getting this team to the playoffs without all that talent that the Colts have.

And of course, all of this is predicated on the assumption that there will be a good QB available at 8 for the Bills to get, and I simply doubt this will be the case. Taking a QB at 8 doesn't automatically make him good.

[sukie]

Not selecting a QB isn't always a better alternative. I think there may be value later than 8 as far as QBs go

[OpIv37]

Not selecting a QB isn't always a better alternative. I think there may be value later than 8 as far as QBs go

I wouldn't mind using our 2nd on someone like Nassib or Manuel if they are still there. I still think they're long shots but the opportunity cost of a 2nd is less than that of a first.

[sukie]

Wilson and Kaepernick were both considered projects, I believe

[Mike]

Like I have said before SO WHAT if they are a bigger gamble. It is a gamble the Bills need to take.

It is still a gamble no matter who is picked. Who would have thought Mike Williams would turn out to be the bust he was?

And the draft is not like a slot machine, it is more like Poker. There is an element of skill involved.

1) Probability: you have to look at probability. If the risk is the same why do the Bills have to draft a QB at all? They can just sign one of the college QBs that did not get drafted.
2) Opportunity Cost: if the Bills draft my grandma to play QB @ #8 -and believe me she's never thrown a football- costs the Bills the opportunity to draft a good player like Dion Jordon, etc... AND potentially drafting a QB high next year.
3) Risk: different players propose different risks. Some of those risks might be injury history, consistency, talent, work ethic, drugs, size, experience, etc... An NFL GM has to manage all of these. Bruce Smith was a much better prospect than Maybin! The risks were not the same, nor was the grade, nor was their probability for success. Maybin was a very poor selection and someone with the mentality 'it's all luck' would make such a pick!
4) Perspective: There is a continuum and an abb and flow. Some years have great QB & WR prospects and awful CB & DE prospects. These factors ossolate back and forth and a good GM plans ahead!
5) Bottoming Out: GMs have been quoted as saying a bad team needs to bottom out so they can start fresh and have a chance. Look at the Colts last year! Bills need to bottom out this year and next year they could draft a much better QB prospect than my grandmother or geno smith.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

This is simply not true.

What were Drew Brees and Eli Manning doing during the playoffs this year?

And you're right about RGIII but wrong about Luck turning around a bad franchise. The Colts are a great franchise that was built around having a great QB. They sucked for one year without Manning. Luck was able to come in and get them to the playoffs because they were built around the QB position. The Bills have no such talent. Even if we get Smith and he turns out to be as good as Luck, he's not getting this team to the playoffs without all that talent that the Colts have.

And of course, all of this is predicated on the assumption that there will be a good QB available at 8 for the Bills to get, and I simply doubt this will be the case. Taking a QB at 8 doesn't automatically make him good.

Could we please have a moratorium on using the 2012 Saints to prove any kind of point about team building? They were embroiled in a season-long controversy, lost multiple starters for suspensions and were down to their third string head coach. That was a massive anomaly of a season.

[better days]

So, it's ok to pass on Keller because he's good but not great, yet, it's not OK to avoid risking the #8 pick on a QB prospect who is "good not great" by your own admission.

There is a HUGE difference between a good player & a good prospect. A good player is what he is. A good prospect may turn out to be a Mediocre player or a HOF player that is not yet determined.

And I am not saying the Bills should have passed on Keller, I would have been happy if the Bills had signed him. BUT his loss is no big deal, the Bills may yet sign someone as good or better than Keller, as I said, he is no Gronk.

[better days]

Taking a QB at 8 doesn't automatically make him good.

And taking ANY other player at any other position at 8 doesn't automatically make him good either!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OpIv37]

Could we please have a moratorium on using the 2012 Saints to prove any kind of point about team building? They were embroiled in a season-long controversy, lost multiple starters for suspensions and were down to their third string head coach. That was a massive anomaly of a season.

Lmao- his point was that a good QB makes teams a contender no matter what. I'm simply showing that with a huge hit on D and a 3rd string coach, even a great QB couldn't get it done. Sorry, you can't just throw out data yiu don't like.

- - - Updated - - -


And taking ANY other player at any other position at 8 doesn't automatically make him good either!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We've been over this- in this draft the chances of other players being good is far better than the QB's

[better days]

Lmao- his point was that a good QB makes teams a contender no matter what. I'm simply showing that with a huge hit on D and a 3rd string coach, even a great QB couldn't get it done. Sorry, you can't just throw out data yiu don't like.

- - - Updated - - -


We've been over this- in this draft the chances of other players being good is far better than the QB's

His point is still valid. If Fitz or Trent or Sanchez or any other Mediocre QB were the Saints QB, The Saints would never have made the playoffs.

REREAD what mjt328 said, YOU BOLDED it. He said a top 10 QB would make any team a playoff CONTENDER. He did NOT say a top 10 QB AUTOMATICLLY gets a team into the playoffs.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Lmao- his point was that a good QB makes teams a contender no matter what. I'm simply showing that with a huge hit on D and a 3rd string coach, even a great QB couldn't get it done. Sorry, you can't just throw out data yiu don't like.

His point was that a great QB makes a team a contender for years. Which Brees did seeing as how they've won 3 division titles and a Super Bowl since he got there. But you chose to focus on the year where the wheels came off and Brees, despite winning the passing title (again) and leading a Top 5 offense (again) couldn't overcome the complete chaos caused by bountygate. I don't care what team you have, they aren't going to succeed with such a fiasco going on.

I mean, I'm surprised you didn't bash them for the 3-13 season where they had to play like gypsies because Katrina trashed the Superdome. "See? Even a franchise quarterback can't beat a hurricane!"

[better days]

Lmao- his point was that a good QB makes teams a contender no matter what. I'm simply showing that with a huge hit on D and a 3rd string coach, even a great QB couldn't get it done. Sorry, you can't just throw out data yiu don't like.

- - - Updated - - -


We've been over this- in this draft the chances of other players being good is far better than the QB's

This is a fallacy, a player drafted at a different position could be a bust as well. Maybe a QB has a 10 - 20% more of a chance to fail than a player from another position, but there have been BUSTS at ALL positions.

EVERYONE remembers the QBs that bust because that is the MOST IMPORTANT VISIBLE position in football. People don't take notince when a WR or DE is a bust because they did not even realize he was drafted.

[OpIv37]

This is a fallacy, a player drafted at a different position could be a bust as well. Maybe a QB has a 10 - 20% more of a chance to fail than a player from another position, but there have been BUSTS at ALL positions.

EVERYONE remembers the QBs that bust because that is the MOST IMPORTANT VISIBLE position in football. People don't take notince when a WR or DE is a bust because they did not even realize he was drafted.

QB's bust more than other positions. These QB's are graded lower than most so their chances for busting are even higher.

Therefore, it is absolutely NOT a fallacy. Taking any of these QB's at 8 carries a tremendous amount of risk that we can't afford. This team absolutely needs to use this pick to get significantly better so taking on extra risk is just plain stupid.

That's the simple reality of the situation.

We are arguing in circles now because you don't understand the disparity in risk and you overrate both these QB's and what a QB can do on a craptacular team.

[better days]

QB's bust more than other positions. These QB's are graded lower than most so their chances for busting are even higher.

Therefore, it is absolutely NOT a fallacy. Taking any of these QB's at 8 carries a tremendous amount of risk that we can't afford. This team absolutely needs to use this pick to get significantly better so taking on extra risk is just plain stupid.

That's the simple reality of the situation.

We are arguing in circles now because you don't understand the disparity in risk and you overrate both these QB's and what a QB can do on a craptacular team.

It is a fallacy because NO player in this draft is rated off the charts. There are no players talked about as can't misss like when Warren Sapp was drafted. Like I said QBs may have a 10 - 20% greater chance to fail, but you are making it sound like a QB has a 90% chance of failure while other positions have only a 10% chance to fail. That is just not true.

There will most likely be at least a few QBs that become GOOD QBs in this draft. The Bills NEED one of those guys far more than any other need on the team.

[OpIv37]

It is a fallacy because NO player in this draft is rated off the charts. There are no players talked about as can't misss like when Warren Sapp was drafted. Like I said QBs may have a 10 - 20% greater chance to fail, but you are making it sound like a QB has a 90% chance of failure while other positions have only a 10% chance to fail. That is just not true.

There will most likely be at least a few QBs that become GOOD QBs in this draft. The Bills NEED one of those guys far more than any other need on the team.
Except that the guy we need isn't in this draft.

[better days]

Except that the guy we need isn't in this draft.

That is what you say. Although you said QBs are hard to evaluate, you have done so & made that determination. I guess you should get a job as a GM because you can evaluate QBs so well. I will see what Nix has to say about that.

[swiper]

Select a QB in either of the first 2 rounds every ******* year until one hits. All the other selections are moot until there is a QB stud.

Brilliant

[OpIv37]

That is what you say. Although you said QBs are hard to evaluate, you have done so & made that determination. I guess you should get a job as a GM because you can evaluate QBs so well. I will see what Nix has to say about that.

Point is still that whoever we take at 8 has to make this team significantly better. We can't afford another Losman or Maybin. You want to risk it all on the position that's the hardest to evaluate where the players have the lowest grade while the team has at least 4 other major holes.

Go ahead. It really doesn't matter how good the QB turns out to be. No receivers, no G, no OL depth, no D. He'll be shell shocked like Losman, Collins, Johnson and Edwards by this time next year.

[Captain Obvious]

No receivers,

Can you please stop exaggerating... No receivers implies they have NOTHING at that position when Stevie Johnson was 18th in receiving yards last year

[OpIv37]

Can you please stop exaggerating... No receivers implies they have NOTHING at that position when Stevie Johnson was 18th in receiving yards last year

I was being lazy. Yes, we technically have 1 WR. But that's not enough because defenses key on him knowing they don't have to worry about the other WR's. Rookie QBs tend to lock on to the best WR and stare him down- what exactly do you think is going to happen when he does that while the D is keying on Stevie.

No QB is going to be successful until we add at least one more receiving threat. Period.

[Night Train]

They have little choice but to pick one now, regardless of the rankings.

Whether it's at #8 or with the 2nd pick is still undecided.

[OpIv37]

They have little choice but to pick one now, regardless of the rankings.

Whether it's at #8 or with the 2nd pick is still undecided.
How did it get this bad? And how can Nix keep his job?

Nix better "retire" before next off-season starts in favor of Whaley. The only good thing about keeping him around is it means the captain has to go down with the ship that he crashed into the iceberg.

[better days]

Point is still that whoever we take at 8 has to make this team significantly better. We can't afford another Losman or Maybin. You want to risk it all on the position that's the hardest to evaluate where the players have the lowest grade while the team has at least 4 other major holes.

Go ahead. It really doesn't matter how good the QB turns out to be. No receivers, no G, no OL depth, no D. He'll be shell shocked like Losman, Collins, Johnson and Edwards by this time next year.

Knowing where you live, I can only assume you have been spending too much time with politicos & their bad habits have rubbed off on you because you EXAGGERATE & over simplify all the time.

The OL is intact except for Levitre & the vast majority of this board think he can easily be replaced by someone cheap, so that should not be a problem.

Whoever starts at QB next year will have TWO playmakers in Stevie & CJ, any QB in the NFL would love to have on their team. I have already said it is MARCH 15 & more players will be added before TC starts but you keep ignoring that FACT.

As far as the Defense is concerned, the Bills have added a DC that had a top 5 defense & there are already many GOOD players for him to work with & more will be added.

[mjt328]

His point was that a great QB makes a team a contender for years. Which Brees did seeing as how they've won 3 division titles and a Super Bowl since he got there. But you chose to focus on the year where the wheels came off and Brees, despite winning the passing title (again) and leading a Top 5 offense (again) couldn't overcome the complete chaos caused by bountygate. I don't care what team you have, they aren't going to succeed with such a fiasco going on.

I mean, I'm surprised you didn't bash them for the 3-13 season where they had to play like gypsies because Katrina trashed the Superdome. "See? Even a franchise quarterback can't beat a hurricane!"

Thank you. Being a contender does not mean every year you are in the playoffs. Both were in the race until late December last year. The Giants and Saints ARE annual contenders, and will continue to be until Manning and Brees are no longer there.

Someday when they retire, if those QBs are replaced with good passers, the teams will remain contenders. If they are not, the Giants and Saints will become irrelavent again - regardless of the other 52 players on the roster.

[mjt328]

QB's bust more than other positions. These QB's are graded lower than most so their chances for busting are even higher.

Therefore, it is absolutely NOT a fallacy. Taking any of these QB's at 8 carries a tremendous amount of risk that we can't afford. This team absolutely needs to use this pick to get significantly better so taking on extra risk is just plain stupid.

That's the simple reality of the situation.

We are arguing in circles now because you don't understand the disparity in risk and you overrate both these QB's and what a QB can do on a craptacular team.

This is a myth.

I've seen draft studies that show the bust rate is not really that different between positions. Quarterbacks simply get more attention, because they are more hyped by the media, more vital to a team's success and their failures are more visible to fans.

Every year just before the draft, you will see Top 10 or Top 25 lists for "biggest busts of all time" - and every year they are filled with the typical names like Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Etc. Probably 50 percent of those lists are quarterbacks.
Where is Robert Gallery, who was supposedly one of the safest offensive linemen ever to come out of the draft? Why don't people talk about Glenn Dorsey, touted as the best defensive tackle prospect in 10-15 years? Even on this board, we hear a lot more about JP Losman than Mike Williams.

[WagonCircler]

The Bills have the idiot, ass-kissing marketing flunky pretending to be CEO. They're useless. They have hired, basically in full, the coaching staff from a third-rate college football program.

They'll draft first overall next year and select a Defensive Back.

Until The Fossil shuffles loose this mortal coil, this Bills will suck balls.

Book it.

[OpIv37]

Knowing where you live, I can only assume you have been spending too much time with politicos & their bad habits have rubbed off on you because you EXAGGERATE & over simplify all the time.

The OL is intact except for Levitre & the vast majority of this board think he can easily be replaced by someone cheap, so that should not be a problem.

Whoever starts at QB next year will have TWO playmakers in Stevie & CJ, any QB in the NFL would love to have on their team. I have already said it is MARCH 15 & more players will be added before TC starts but you keep ignoring that FACT.

As far as the Defense is concerned, the Bills have added a DC that had a top 5 defense & there are already many GOOD players for him to work with & more will be added.
The vast majority of the board is wrong in thinking that he can be easily replaced, and even with him, one injury ****ed the whole OL and required reshuffling.

Two playmakers but only one receiving target. Not the same thing.

You keep talking about who we are going to add while the team keeps sitting there idly.

[better days]

The vast majority of the board is wrong in thinking that he can be easily replaced, and even with him, one injury ****ed the whole OL and required reshuffling.

Two playmakers but only one receiving target. Not the same thing.

You keep talking about who we are going to add while the team keeps sitting there idly.

Well, I agree with you about Levitre. I don't think he will be easily replaced either.

[OpIv37]

Well, I agree with you about Levitre. I don't think he will be easily replaced either.

Yeah, guards are easy to find but guards who play well every single game and never get injured are a bit more difficult to find.

[The Jokeman]

QB's bust more than other positions. These QB's are graded lower than most so their chances for busting are even higher.

Therefore, it is absolutely NOT a fallacy. Taking any of these QB's at 8 carries a tremendous amount of risk that we can't afford. This team absolutely needs to use this pick to get significantly better so taking on extra risk is just plain stupid.

That's the simple reality of the situation.

We are arguing in circles now because you don't understand the disparity in risk and you overrate both these QB's and what a QB can do on a craptacular team.

To me the reasons QBs bust more than not is the whole state of a franchise taking one isn't in the state to take a QB. Look at Cam Newton vs Andrew Dalton as a prime example. To me there's no doubt that Newton is a better athlete/player than Dalton. Newton's states are better across the board except for completion % and W-Ls why? Because Newton is asked to do more or be a better player in part because of a poor D in Carolina and questionable running game and receiving core outside of an aging Steve Smith. While we do have some key ingredients Spiller and Stevie and possibly O-line in place with our D as bad as it's been needs an injection of talent at LB to be medicore at best and thusly putting a bigger burden on whomever we draft at QB.

[swiper]

To me the reasons QBs bust more than not is the whole state of a franchise taking one isn't in the state to take a QB. Look at Cam Newton vs Andrew Dalton as a prime example. To me there's no doubt that Newton is a better athlete/player than Dalton. Newton's states are better across the board except for completion % and W-Ls why? Because Newton is asked to do more or be a better player in part because of a poor D in Carolina and questionable running game and receiving core outside of an aging Steve Smith. While we do have some key ingredients Spiller and Stevie and possibly O-line in place with our D as bad as it's been needs an injection of talent at LB to be medicore at best and thusly putting a bigger burden on whomever we draft at QB.

QBs often bust because they are thrown in and expected to perform too soon. Aaron Rodgers dropped to #24th in the draft. But the Packers took like 4 years for him to watch and learn behind Favre. That's about average for a young QB. The Russell Wilson's are the exception. And you can be certain that all the opponents of the 49ers, Seahawks and Redskins will do a much better job of defensing those QBs this coming year. That's why getting a guy like Alex Smith would have offered the Bills some tremendous value for a couple of years.

[YardRat]

To me the reasons QBs bust more than not is the whole state of a franchise taking one isn't in the state to take a QB. Look at Cam Newton vs Andrew Dalton as a prime example. To me there's no doubt that Newton is a better athlete/player than Dalton. Newton's states are better across the board except for completion % and W-Ls why? Because Newton is asked to do more or be a better player in part because of a poor D in Carolina and questionable running game and receiving core outside of an aging Steve Smith. While we do have some key ingredients Spiller and Stevie and possibly O-line in place with our D as bad as it's been needs an injection of talent at LB to be medicore at best and thusly putting a bigger burden on whomever we draft at QB.

Which is a good reason why this isn't a great year to take the risk on a QB.

[fluteflakes]

To witt for next season (ignoring the argument happening) a QB to look out for it Brett Smith out of Wyoming. He's got a rocket arm, good frame, amazing mobility, good accuracy and managed to put up 27 TD's to only 6 INT's despite playing with one of the worst defenses and supporting offensive casts in college football.

He'll be talked up a lot during the season and offseason next year if he declares. Only reason he's not now is because he plays at Wyoming.

[Mouldsie]

Even the best GM can't find something that isn't there.


The Bills need to get a QB early in the draft- this is true.

The Bills' needs, however, have nothing to do with the availability of QB's worthy of high draft picks.

Your post has nothing to do with the quality of the QB's available THIS year- it's simply a warning about what may or may not happen next year.

The Bills absolutely have to get someone with the #8 team who makes the team significantly better. None of the QB's in this draft are likely to do that, and your post warning about next year's QB's doesn't change that.

Once again, a major reason why the Bills have sucked for the last 13 years is poor drafting. This strategy all but guarantees that the poor drafting will continue.

/ thread

[X-Era]

I remember several years in a row where we wanted to wait until next year for the QB.

I remember hearing Fitz was "serviceable" enough that we could win if our defense was good enough.

I remember the suck for Luck campaign.

And in the meantime teams like Sea, Cinnci, Vikes, and 49er's all went with a QB with inconsistencies and all went to the playoffs.

We don't have to have the next Luck and may never be in a position to actually draft a guy like that. What we need to do is thoroughly research the prospects and make a seemingly smart choice. Then we need to realize it make take more iterations to get it right.

[Mouldsie]

None of what you said makes Matt Barkely a good player.

[better days]

None of what you said makes Matt Barkely a good player.

None of what anybody says makes any QB good or bad, including the so called experts. It is up to the team to determine which QB is worth investing in.

[Mouldsie]

Well I say none of them are worth a high investment

[better days]

Well I say none of them are worth a high investment

Nix may agree with you, but he did say "you probably have to draft a quarterback one round before you'd like to." IMO that means if he has a 2nd rnd grade on a QB, he will draft him in the first.

[YardRat]

Nix may agree with you, but he did say "you probably have to draft a quarterback one round before you'd like to." IMO that means if he has a 2nd rnd grade on a QB, he will draft him in the first.

Where does he draft him if he has a first round grade on him?

[OpIv37]

Where does he draft him if he has a first round grade on him?

If he has a first round grade on any of these QB's with the possible exception of Smith, then he has no business running an NFL draft.

- - - Updated - - -


Nix may agree with you, but he did say "you probably have to draft a quarterback one round before you'd like to." IMO that means if he has a 2nd rnd grade on a QB, he will draft him in the first.

If he does that, he's an idiot.

[Oaf]

QBs often bust because they are thrown in and expected to perform too soon.

Which is why our rookie-thrust-as-starter will more likely than not fail this year and potentially the next years as a consequence. Really wishing we took a QB one of the last two years.

[better days]

If he has a first round grade on any of these QB's with the possible exception of Smith, then he has no business running an NFL draft.

- - - Updated - - -



If he does that, he's an idiot.

If he is an idiot, it is because he did not realize he had to overdraft a QB before this year. Should have taken Wilson last year like I wanted him to.

[OpIv37]

If he is an idiot, it is because he did not realize he had to overdraft a QB before this year. Should have taken Wilson last year like I wanted him to.

He's the guy that got us in this mess. Why would you expect him to get us out?

[better days]

He's the guy that got us in this mess. Why would you expect him to get us out?

I think it is possible Chan told Nix we don't need to draft a QB, Fitz will be fine. The fact Chan never gave TJAX any shot at all, even after it was clear the Bills would not make the playoffs & Fitz's days were numbered, lends credibility to that theory.