Get used to this guys

[DesertFox24]

All we are utilizing analytics and this is pretty much what it states at its core. Sign tier 2 and tier 3 free agents on the cheap, to add depth to areas of need.

Additionally the bills coaches want to utilize that early April camp to see the players, so you could probably expect a few signings after that. This will also tell you what they think of the incumbents at said positions.

Lastly our new defacto GM is from the Steelers and this is the same strategy they employ.

Expect us to pay big for key positions and let guys walk like Levitre whom play positions that are not considered key, but will also prevent the bills from signing a key player in the following years. It probably came down to Levitre or Wood, and it is a lot harder to find a good center than it is to find a good guard.

[OpIv37]

Uh, with the exception of Spikes, Dockery and Mario Williams, the Bills have done nothing but sign 2nd and 3rd tier free agents for the last decade.

This is not a new strategy based on analytics. It's the same **** we always do.

And it may work when you have legit stars like the Steelers and just need to put the pieces around them, but we are not nearly that talented.

[psubills62]

Uh, with the exception of Spikes, Dockery and Mario Williams, the Bills have done nothing but sign 2nd and 3rd tier free agents for the last decade.
So if you don't count these long runs, a RB's YPC are pretty low!

[bf1]

"build through the draft." "stay the course"

[psubills62]

Analytics isn't necessarily going to tell you "only tier 2 and tier 3 FA's," but what it will tell you is what monetary value to place on each player. And realistically, many top free agents just aren't worth the money paid for them, so most likely analytics will indeed come to the conclusion that top free agents are priced out of the appropriate range.

Steelers also draft well and pay their own. The tier 2 and 3 FA method would work well if we could build a roster through the draft.

[OpIv37]

So if you don't count these long runs, a RB's YPC are pretty low!

In 13 years, we went big in FA 3 times and signed 2nd and 3rd tier guys 10 times, despite having huge holes every single year. This is business as usual- the 3 big FA's were the exception to the rule.

[justasportsfan]

usually, new coaches don't bring in big named FA's in their first year until they know what they inherited.

[kingJofNYC]

This is not what "analytics" is, this is standard Bills. Stop believing these fools, nothing has changed at the core, they just throw **** around to get fools to buy in.

[OpIv37]

usually, new coaches don't bring in big named FA's in their first year until they know what they inherited.

I never really understood this.

Every single play of these guys' careers are available on video. They should have a pretty damn good idea what they have without needing to see it live.

[psubills62]

In 13 years, we went big in FA 3 times and signed 2nd and 3rd tier guys 10 times, despite having huge holes every single year. This is business as usual- the 3 big FA's were the exception to the rule.
Yeah, and you're removing the data you don't like to create this "rule."

Without looking at the numbers, I seriously doubt that 3 big contract FA's is that far under the average, even over 10-13 years. Especially before this year, when teams need to spend up to a minimum floor.

The problem is what I keep saying - we're not drafting well. Spending tons of money in FA doesn't matter if you aren't drafting well.

[ServoBillieves]

usually, new coaches don't bring in big named FA's in their first year until they know what they inherited.

So Marrone sets himself up for failure year 1 to make it look like a good decision on skipping on any proven and good FA's with no QB, 1 good receiver, 1 good TE (Get over it morons, Chandler is an above average TE), and a new defense with a ton of holes?

OH WAIT, it's not completely up to the HC, so where are Buddy, Whaley, everyone else.

Geno's Pro-Day, napping, signing out of their rooms, taking flights back to where the real business should be, et cetera.

They (the "rookie coaches") inherited a decent corp who wouldn't make the playoffs without those few little cogs to improve, and then proceeded to let key others go. The team has 4-3 talent after a 3-4 mishap, which will now be replaced with a 3-4/4-3 hybrid. No QB/2nd WR/LB corp/SS means big problems heading in to a draft where you want to pretend you're picking up RGIII if you trade up a la Skins style or if you think a bunch of unproven talent will do the trick. Also, with the rest of FA,

5-11, here we come.

[bf1]

They use analytics, but they have the decimal places off.

[OpIv37]

Yeah, and you're removing the data you don't like to create this "rule."

Without looking at the numbers, I seriously doubt that 3 big contract FA's is that far under the average, even over 10-13 years. Especially before this year, when teams need to spend up to a minimum floor.

The problem is what I keep saying - we're not drafting well. Spending tons of money in FA doesn't matter if you aren't drafting well.

what data am I "removing"?

This is the same old pattern: Sign one big FA, basically go dormant and only sign a couple of 2nd or 3rd tier guys for 3-4 years in FA, rinse, repeat.

Drafting is definitely a problem, but if we are not drafting well, the only other way to improve is FA. So, it's counter-intuitive to say "we're not going to do anything in FA because we didn't draft well."

[psubills62]

what data am I "removing"?

This is the same old pattern: Sign one big FA, basically go dormant and only sign a couple of 2nd or 3rd tier guys for 3-4 years in FA, rinse, repeat.

Drafting is definitely a problem, but if we are not drafting well, the only other way to improve is FA. So, it's counter-intuitive to say "we're not going to do anything in FA because we didn't draft well."
That isn't how you phrased it above. "Uh, with the exception of Spikes, Dockery and Mario Williams, the Bills have done nothing but sign 2nd and 3rd tier free agents for the last decade." They've only "done nothing" but sign lower-tier guys when you remove the top-tier free agents they've signed. Shocking.

Free agency should not ever be the primary way to build a team. Free agency should not be relied on to make a team good.

I never said we shouldn't do anything in FA. I personally would like to see more action, because we do have a ton of holes that can't just be filled by the draft. But I'm not looking for 5-6 year contract (i.e. top-level) guys at this point necessarily, I think we need 2-3 year guys who will keep the seat warm for future draftees. It always comes down to drafting well.


@adbrandt: I understand fans' frustration w/lack of signings and quick fixes. But again, winners in March rarely are winners in January.

[justasportsfan]

I never really understood this.

Every single play of these guys' careers are available on video. They should have a pretty damn good idea what they have without needing to see it live. Videos arn't everything. Otherwise , there wouldn't be any draft busts or FA busts. It's no guarantee. Scott Pioli had Cassel in NE and did squat with him at KC.

Let's not go far, how did Mario pan out so far in last year 4-3 D? There's tons of video of him out there. Why did he under perform in that system? Was he worth the 100M we're playing him so far?

Polian didn't bring in any big free agents in his early tenure with MArv as the HC. It wasn't til later when he brought in guys like Lofton and Bennett to fill in.

I don't recall BB bringing in any big named FA when he landed in NE .

IMO, just like he did with Chan, Nix won't be going crazy until the next seasson or 2 when Marrone and co. has a clearer picture .

[Mr. Pink]

This was a 5-11 team at best even returning the same roster it had last year let alone losing a couple pieces. Look at our division, how pathetic this defense performed, no QB and then our actual schedule.

What's the difference between 3-13 and 7-9? Better draft pick next year.

This team is SOOOOO far away from being a legitimate contender it's not even funny and the fact that some people think one offseason was going to change that is actually comical.

This team needed to be gutted years ago but instead of gutting it they applied the bandaid approach and where did that get us? 13 years of no playoffs.

Sometimes you need to take a step back to take 2 steps forward.