What the Bills Need To Do

[Mike]

GMs have said this about mediocre teams. What they need more than anything is to bottom out. With a new HC and many of the recent moves no one would be surprised if the Bills are picking first next year. Lastly, there is almost Zero chance Bills win an SB in 2013.

1) do nothing in FA
2) release unproductive players
3) draft best available player in position of need @ #8
4) Draft a QB no earlier than rounds 2 or 3 of this years draft
5) make 2013 an evaluation year
6) Draft great QB prospect in first round of 2014 Draft
7) surround new QB with talent via draft
8) make appropriate FA moves in 2015 after new QB shows something!

[Jeff1220]

The 'approach' the Bills seem to be taking is so bad, that I have given serious consideration to this scenario being what's up.

[Don't Panic]

This obviously isn't a retool and try to compete ASAP... that much is apparent. What you've mentioned is a wise and patient path, one I hope they have the resolve to take. Still... Geno could very well speed up the plan at QB if he is there at #8.

[YardRat]

1) do nothing in FA :check:
2) release unproductive players :check:
3) draft best available player in position of need @ #8
4) Draft a QB no earlier than rounds 2 or 3 of this years draft
5) make 2013 an evaluation year
6) Draft great QB prospect in first round of 2014 Draft
7) surround new QB with talent via draft
8) make appropriate FA moves in 2015 after new QB shows something!

So far, so good...

[OpIv37]

GMs have said this about mediocre teams. What they need more than anything is to bottom out. With a new HC and many of the recent moves no one would be surprised if the Bills are picking first next year. Lastly, there is almost Zero chance Bills win an SB in 2013.

1) do nothing in FA
2) release unproductive players
3) draft best available player in position of need @ #8
4) Draft a QB no earlier than rounds 2 or 3 of this years draft
5) make 2013 an evaluation year
6) Draft great QB prospect in first round of 2014 Draft
7) surround new QB with talent via draft
8) make appropriate FA moves in 2015 after new QB shows something!
Drafting BPA in a position of need is basically the same as drafting BPA. We need pretty much everything except RB, C, DT and arguably DE and OT.

[kingJofNYC]

They need to be contracted

[mjt328]

To end up with the number one pick in the draft, you absolutely cannot win more than 3 games. And in many years, 3 wins will push you to the #3 or #4 spot.

I'm confident that we will suck this year. But are we worse than the Jaguars? The Browns? The Raiders? The Jets?


The 2014 prospects look very good right now. But Barkley was the hands-down 2013 #1 pick at this time last year. This year, nobody on this board wants him.
There are no guarantees the top QB picks (Bridgewater, Manziel) will be looked at so highly next year. Heck, there is no guarantee they will even DECLARE for the draft next year. Manziel was a freshman and Bridgewater was a sophomore.

And if we end up with a top pick next year, there will be just as many people calling for us to draft DE Jadeveon Clowney - and for good reason.

[Bone]

Clowney on the Bills...could you imagine..

[ServoBillieves]

Clowney on the Bills...could you imagine..

I'd have that jersey in a heartbeat, barring catastrophe this upcoming season.

[better days]

They need to be contracted

Your talking about the NJ Jets right?

[fluteflakes]

Clowney here... my god our defense goes from terrible to great over night.

[OpIv37]

They need to be contracted

Why?

Bills fans are perhaps the least fickle in the NFL. Through 13 years of suckage, they still sell tickets and merch. They'll never make as much money as Washington or Dallas or NE, but just wait til NE starts losing and see how their income drops.

I could see why the NFL might want to move the Bills to LA or Toronto or some larger city where they could potentially make Washington or Dallas money, but I don't know why they would want to get rid of a consistently poor product that still makes money. It's win-win for them.

[Typ0]

The team only makes money because it's expenses are paid and the gov't helps them. This team is dead weight from the top down no matter what the annual report says. The NFL is the other owners...and they aren't going to want to maintain dead weight they want growth potential because once growth potential ceases it's inevitable the product will die.

[Mike]

The team only makes money because it's expenses are paid and the gov't helps them. This team is dead weight from the top down no matter what the annual report says. The NFL is the other owners...and they aren't going to want to maintain dead weight they want growth potential because once growth potential ceases it's inevitable the product will die.

I think it was in 2009, the Bills were 9th in profit! They made more money than the Dolphins, Jets, and 23 other team including that years SB winner! What made this possible was the old CBA, loosing was simply great business. Now with the new CBA, things will change, but one thing the Bills are not, is dead weight!

[Mike]

To end up with the number one pick in the draft, you absolutely cannot win more than 3 games. And in many years, 3 wins will push you to the #3 or #4 spot.

I agree for the most part. Each year there are 3-4 teams that could potentially have the #1 Pick.

I'm confident that we will suck this year.
But are we worse than the Jaguars? Toss Up. Gabbert might improve in year 3 and some of their other weapons will begin to flourish. I think their LB, DB, WR, and QB is superior to ours so this might show up in the rankings.
The Browns? They are definitely better. At the end of last year they were better and have slightly improved in FA.
The Raiders? Its unfortunate how much they suck and they have gotten worst in FA however Palmer is years ahead of any Bills QB currently on the roster.
The Jets? They too are cleaning house and preparing for a subpar year. In the last 15+ years, the Jets know when and how to lose. When they lose they lose, and in turn they quickly turn around. Its a toss up on who will be worst this year, but I could see the difference between us picking first and them picking first being an 80yard TD run by Spiller. Before we completely write them off, lets see what happens with Revis.


The 2014 prospects look very good right now. But Barkley was the hands-down 2013 #1 pick at this time last year. This year, nobody on this board wants him.
This happens every year. However, prospects value increases and decreases at same rate. A couple of years before Luck declared for draft, it was debatable weather he or Locker was the better QB. Both were scene as Top 10 picks, however many preferred Locker. A year later, Lockers stock went down and Lucks went up. Luck ended up not declaring for another year, but stock goes in both directions. Another example can be Miller.

There are no guarantees the top QB picks (Bridgewater, Manziel) will be looked at so highly next year. Heck, there is no guarantee they will even DECLARE for the draft next year. Manziel was a freshman and Bridgewater was a sophomore.
The KNOWN at this point is that this QB class is subpar and the PROBABILITY is that next years QB class will be far better. Playing the odds is really what the draft is at the end of the day. You draft the prospects with the highest probability for success.


And if we end up with a top pick next year, there will be just as many people calling for us to draft DE Jadeveon Clowney - and for good reason.
I am ok with that too. Sometimes the best moves are the ones you dont make. Even if there is no QB available in next years draft, I would still prefer Clowney with a top pick next year over signing a bunch of ok FAs and wining an extra two games.

[Typ0]

I think it was in 2009, the Bills were 9th in profit! They made more money than the Dolphins, Jets, and 23 other team including that years SB winner! What made this possible was the old CBA, loosing was simply great business. Now with the new CBA, things will change, but one thing the Bills are not, is dead weight!

Profitability is exactly what late life-cycle dying products bring you. Profit does not equal value though don't make that mistake. Value is associated with long term cash flows. The Bills are valued low despite the profits clearly indicates what I am talking about. They are dead weight. Maybe they are not as bad dead weight as Jax but they are dead weight. The franchise is no where near the Dolphins and Jets in terms of value. And if you looked at all the nuts and bolts of why those teams don't show the profits on their books you would find because they are worth more and they are using that leverage to grow and make their futures. The Bills are doing nothing but dig a big hole from the past to fall into...

[Mike]

Profitability is exactly what late life-cycle dying products bring you.
This statement is very exceptional, as it applies to 'exceptions' in the market oppose to 'norms'. No all late life-cycle products bring you a profit. And it can be very hard to say that a product is late in its life cycle. Further, you can use this statement to describe all Apple products, Google Products, Coke Cola, Pepsi, ets... all of these produce a profit so what barometer are you using to judge weather or not the product is late in its life-cycle?

Profit does not equal value though don't make that mistake. Value is associated with long term cash flows.
The Bills do have long terms cash flow, as they have been making millions every year for decades. In other metrics, such as competitive advantage, barriers to entry, market reach, management, etc... The Bills have clear advantages over most other business types. The barrier of entry to competing with the NFL is almost insurmountable. So, if you want to own an Football Team, you only have a few good options and the Bills are one of them. You want to buy the Cowboys or Redskins, first off they are not for sale, and secondly they will set you back a porpotional dollar amount. In other words, its in the price. From this standpoint, an investor might chose buying the Bills for $792M and making top 9 NFL money than buying the Cowboys for $1.85B and making slightly more. [To put these numbers in perspective most franchises are right around $1B with GB #9 most valuable franchise being slightly above this. Other Small Market Teams like Pittsburg, Indianapolis, are in the same range]

The Bills are valued low despite the profits clearly indicates what I am talking about.
A valuation of $792 Million is not low.

They are dead weight.
Dead weight refers to companies that do not bring in a profit, or have a profit so small that they are barely making it without gaining market share. Neither of these is the case with the Bills. For many years, they were top 10 in profit.

Maybe they are not as bad dead weight as Jax but they are dead weight. The franchise is no where near the Dolphins and Jets in terms of value.
Dolphins are at $1.01B which I would argue is pretty close. If the Bills had a great QB and a good team around him, surely their evaluation would be higher that this.


And if you looked at all the nuts and bolts of why those teams don't show the profits on their books you would find because they are worth more and they are using that leverage to grow and make their futures.
Your guessing here and you are absolutely incorrect. The amount franchises spend in marketing is very similar and the Bills are great at marketing (just look at how they sell out during playoff drouths) . The reason why the Big Boys of the NFL are worth more is because they are in much bigger markets. Take the Dallas Cowboys, the Dallas Forth-worth metro area has a population of nearly 20 Million people and for the longest time, they were the only game in all of Texas! Moreover, the average incomes in this area are far greater than in Buffalo. Its a much bigger market, Buffalo -no matter how much they spend- could not compete with the Cowboys. The Cowboys are almost worth as much as the combined value of historically great teams like the Steelers and Packers -both of wich have massive followings. Market is Market, and you can sell more tickers and merchandise in Dallas than you can in Buffalo regardless of how much you spend on marketing. I know the exact reason why the Bills had such a high profit, but I will let you figure this out on your own.


The Bills are doing nothing but dig a big hole from the past to fall into...

No idea what you are referring to. There has been only two times in their history when they were superior: early 60's and the 90's. Remember that even in bad years they sell out which is more than can be said for the LA Raiders and LA Rams. Even a Big City like Los Angeles has its downside mainly in the multitude of entertainment options. If the Bills sucked there, selling out would be more difficult. Conversely, Dallas has less entertainment options than LA. Further, the Bills are still worth more than the Raiders or the Rams! They sell out, they sell merchandise, and they get money from the TV rights. They are viable.
Overall, it sounds like you would prefer buying company that makes less profit and paying more for it.

[Typ0]

http://www.tutor2u.net/business/marketing/products_lifecycle.asp

Products late in their life-cycle experience decline but they remain highly profitable due to market share, lack of competition, and economies of scale.

I did not say someone would not want to purchase the Bills. But the reason behind the purchase will be a marriage with other financial pursuits. Really, that's the only way the team will stay in this market. If someone wants to purchase the Bills to make $$$ they are just going to move it to another market and make more $$$. You can sit on a glory dream all day long about 'profitability' it's not going to hold water with someone who wants to maximize their investment. Profit is a misnomer it comes down to value not profit. Profit is easily skewed, for example, by investors taking money out of the organization. Additionally, a healthy debt to equity ratio will diminish yearly profits because you own a lot of stuff to maintain and you are paying off debt (the debt means other organizations are holding some of the risk in your business).

Compared to the average NFL franchise the Bills are valued low. Compared to my crappy car they are valued high. What is your point? They are of the lowest 5 valued franchises in the league.

Dead weight refers to products that are declining. If you don't turn them around they continue to draw from your product portfolio more and more as they age in the marketplace. You need to seek new ways to market these products ...

[better days]

http://www.tutor2u.net/business/marketing/products_lifecycle.asp

Products late in their life-cycle experience decline but they remain highly profitable due to market share, lack of competition, and economies of scale.

I did not say someone would not want to purchase the Bills. But the reason behind the purchase will be a marriage with other financial pursuits. Really, that's the only way the team will stay in this market. If someone wants to purchase the Bills to make $$$ they are just going to move it to another market and make more $$$. You can sit on a glory dream all day long about 'profitability' it's not going to hold water with someone who wants to maximize their investment. Profit is a misnomer it comes down to value not profit. Profit is easily skewed, for example, by investors taking money out of the organization. Additionally, a healthy debt to equity ratio will diminish yearly profits because you own a lot of stuff to maintain and you are paying off debt (the debt means other organizations are holding some of the risk in your business).

Compared to the average NFL franchise the Bills are valued low. Compared to my crappy car they are valued high. What is your point? They are of the lowest 5 valued franchises in the league.

Dead weight refers to products that are declining. If you don't turn them around they continue to draw from your product portfolio more and more as they age in the marketplace. You need to seek new ways to market these products ...

I think the majority of RICH people want to be owners of an NFL team, not to make money, but to be a part of that fraternity. It is a very exclusive club. I KNOW there are some RICH people that would like to buy the Bills & keep them in Buffalo, not to make money, but for the pride of ownership & civic pride of keeping the Bills in Buffalo.

[Mike]

http://www.tutor2u.net/business/marketing/products_lifecycle.asp

Products late in their life-cycle experience decline but they remain highly profitable due to market share, lack of competition, and economies of scale.

I did not say someone would not want to purchase the Bills. But the reason behind the purchase will be a marriage with other financial pursuits. Really, that's the only way the team will stay in this market. If someone wants to purchase the Bills to make $$$ they are just going to move it to another market and make more $$$. You can sit on a glory dream all day long about 'profitability' it's not going to hold water with someone who wants to maximize their investment. Profit is a misnomer it comes down to value not profit. Profit is easily skewed, for example, by investors taking money out of the organization. Additionally, a healthy debt to equity ratio will diminish yearly profits because you own a lot of stuff to maintain and you are paying off debt (the debt means other organizations are holding some of the risk in your business).

Compared to the average NFL franchise the Bills are valued low. Compared to my crappy car they are valued high. What is your point? They are of the lowest 5 valued franchises in the league.

Dead weight refers to products that are declining. If you don't turn them around they continue to draw from your product portfolio more and more as they age in the marketplace. You need to seek new ways to market these products ...

I know about product life cycles, the NFL falls under the entertainment category and they are no where near the end of their product cycle. The NFL is the most popular game in town, hands down, and to think that the NFL is struggling is silly! Now you may argue that the Bills are dead weight, etc.... This is both non-sensible and irrelevant. Why, lets look at some of the facts:
The Bills Financial Overview
1.) The Bills Revenues are not far from average at about $206M (20th in League)
2.) The Bills Debt is at 11% (9th lowest)
3.) 1 year value change: 8% (mid) Current Value of $885M

So to put it in perspective, would you rather buy the Dallas Cowboys at nearly $1.68B with 39% debt value and $269M in revenues or the Bills $885M, 11% debt and about $206M in revenues?
There are a number of teams: Atlanta, San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, Jacksonville, Detroit, Oakland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Minnesota etc... that have lower revenues, higher debt than the Bills and some of these teams are priced higher. Further, the difference in revenue for 2/3 of the league is about $25M meaning that the 9th highest revenue team is at $226M while the 30th team is at $201M -that being the 49ers. This is not a huge difference!

Now how can 20 teams with such different markets have such similar revenues? Profit Sharing

The NFL
As long as the NFL as a whole is viable, so is every team. Why? Simply because they profit share TV revenues. You might guess that this maybe unfair to bigger market teams, however the NFL has decided that its WINNERS that attract a TV audience. Its winners that people want to watch, its winners that go to the playoffs and win a SB! When the Rams won the SB they produced more income from televised games and their sponsors than the big market redskins! TV is where the NFL really makes its money, and TV revenue is shared.

Normal Products vs NFL
There is a reason why the NFL is so powerful and this reason lies in our psychology. The NFL entertainment is fundamentally different than buying a toothbrush or a cell phone and is not prone to general 'life cycles'. Why is this, lets look:

1) Products generally have a life span of about 6 months as 96% of what you Buy is thrown out within 6mo! That means in needs to be replaced and if you did not receive your money's worth the first time or the last time, you would most likely not repurchase the said product.
2) NFL games are not a product you can throw out, buy or sell. Most NFL fans watch the Game for FREE, there is little or no cost associated for the average fan. Even if your team sucks, most fans still watch the games, and other NFL games.
3) Fans: Football is like a religion. It penetrates the depths of our consciousness and fans associate heavily with 'their team'. They become fanatics. Further, Football -like religion- has good guys and bad guys, winners and losers, etc. This is why there are still Bills fans around. In their history there only two times that the Bills were contenders: 60's and 90's. IF the Sports did not have this * addictive, tribal, quality than after 13 years of sucking there would be no Bills fans, yet there are and here we are talking about them.
3) Fantasy Football: the new popularity of fantasy football has taken watching football to a new level. Now, not only do you watch your teams games, but you might also actively watch the Raiders and Rams fight for who is worst because you have McFadden on your team! Fantasy Football and other games like it, are chancing the way fans watch football, in a way that is more addictive and actively engaging.
4) Competition: There is no competition!

As you can see above, products like Apple do not have any of the features the NFL does. They have to continually out do themselves and compete against other companies and OS systems like Samsung and Android and their pricing models. The NFL on the other hand, has a product that they give for FREE, that is addictive religion like following. Further, the NFL has no competition and is only getting better at improve Fan Engagement.


All this Being Said, Are NFL Teams overpriced? That is another question for another day.

[feldspar]

There is no generic plan of attack...EVER.