Analytics Means Going Bargain Hunting ?

[Night Train]

Can't blame many for venting while other teams sign away FA's.

Just wondering if this whole Russ Brandon analytics thingy is just another Moneyball/Cash To Cap plan to keep costs down while selling the idea of getting value for money spent. Sure looks it and it makes him and the Bills look bad.

They need to sign 2-3 decent Vets this coming week to 1-2 year deals as a bridge until the next couple drafts builds up the team the right way. OG Moore from the Jets is 33 but was the highest rated OG in the NFL last year. Fills a crying need for now. I see some decent LB and WR help out there also.

You have to give your new coach a chance to succeed, so I anticipate the bargain deals rolling in the next week. It's a risky gamble playing this hand but it's too late now with many players already signed away. Far from hopeless but if they don't start signing some Vets this week, ticket invoices may not be returned. If he's banking on the QB selection in April, he's making a mistake.

Brandon is overestimating fan loyalty. It's not completely blind.

[Buddo]

I think it's a very difficult call to make atm. Nobody knows anything, at all, as OBD is locked down tighter than a duck's arse in water.

They did always say that this year they weren't going to be rushing around as soon as the gong went on FA, so there's a degree of unfulfilled expectations, that were unrealistic to begin with.

The Lawson signing was a decent one, and although I've not looked at him too closely, the impression I've got is that Pettine likes him, and has got ways to use him effectively, so I'm encouraged by that.

The WR situation is pretty weird, but on the other hand, if we are going to go much more traditional in our set up, then we simply don't need as many. With the ability of both Spiller and Fred Jackson to catch the ball, we can get away with just finding a decent #2 to go opposite Stevie, preferably a guy with some experience. Graham should get better used this year, with someone who can actually get him the pigskin, and Easley is still here as depth, as is Brad Smith. A vet addition, and a draft pick, and we should have plenty to choose from, assuming we aren't going to be running a spread type of offense.

To me, now that Rinehart was signed by the Chargers, Guard is an area where I'd very much like to see a vet brought in, and Moore would be that guy.

Without looking too closely as what's left in FA, the impression I'm getting, is that there is still a lot of talent available, and I would think that as we have some cap space available, we should be able to make acceptable offers to a few guys who can help.
While I wouldn't know how he would fit with Pettine's D, I would think we could find a use for Dansby, for example, who I've always liked as a committed player, and he's not going to be especially expensive. GHe won't be dirt cheap, but he could get $8-10 million on a 2 year deal.

In some respects, the biggest difficulty I have atm, is in getting any sort of sense of what we are going to be running scheme wise, so I find it especially tricky thinking of who we could get, to do what.

TE is another area of need, with Chandler currently 'down', and I'm surprised there hasn't been any activity there. Having said that, there's quite a few decent ones in the draft this year, for a change, so it would seem to be less problematic.

FA hasn't been the big spend up that many foresaw. While there's been a lot of activity at the top of the lists, drop down them a little, and all of a sudden, there are a lot of guys not getting the sort of money that we might have expected.

With the room we still have, we could still sign quite a few guys, maybe even 4 or 5, who won't be scrubs. Who they might be though, your guess is as good as mine.
If I was going to have a flutter, I'd say that Moore is a distinct possibility, and a WR, and another LB. After that, who knows. We could still use more competition at the QB spot, even if we are hell-bent on drafting one.

I fully expect the Bills to be much more active in this part of FA, but I don't categorize it as 'moneyball' so much, as they never really were going to be 'players' early this year.

The next week is important though, as fans will want to see something happening. It may also be a sign of things to come in the future though, as it could well be the case that Whaley and Marrone, have expressed a desire that they want everything hush hush as we go forward.

[mjt328]

The "big money" part of free agency was pretty much over on Thursday.

Lots of vets are already settling for tiny one-year deals. Great bargains. But we are still sitting on our hands.

Simply put, the Bills are not prepared. Their "plan" likely included trying to sign a handful of players on the cheap. When Lawson was the only guy to bite, they didn't know what else to do. They had no backup plan. So now all of their resources are pointed towards pro days and the draft.

[Night Train]

The "big money" part of free agency was pretty much over on Thursday.

Lots of vets are already settling for tiny one-year deals. Great bargains. But we are still sitting on our hands.

Simply put, the Bills are not prepared. Their "plan" likely included trying to sign a handful of players on the cheap. When Lawson was the only guy to bite, they didn't know what else to do. They had no backup plan. So now all of their resources are pointed towards pro days and the draft.

Probably a lot of truth in this. They need to get over the Nix phone call and stop worrying about anyone leaking info.

We already know the lineup needs help beyond 6 draft picks. It's not hush hush.

[X-Era]

The "big money" part of free agency was pretty much over on Thursday.

Lots of vets are already settling for tiny one-year deals. Great bargains. But we are still sitting on our hands.

Simply put, the Bills are not prepared. Their "plan" likely included trying to sign a handful of players on the cheap. When Lawson was the only guy to bite, they didn't know what else to do. They had no backup plan. So now all of their resources are pointed towards pro days and the draft.

Love it. They weren't prepared but you admit that their plan was to not spend big in FA. Well, was that their plan or not? And they are in the middle of executing their plan, as they designed it, but they apparently "don't know what else to do"? And we need a backup plan right now when we are actively executing our plan?

Sending everyone to evaluate the rookie QB's when they intend to draft and start one is the plan.

And since the big money has dried up, there is no rush to sign any of the mid-tier guys that they had planned to sign all along.

Their plan was to sign some mid-tier guys in the next few weeks or even month or two. That probably has been the plan since well before FA.

Look, we don't have to like the plan or agree with it. But I think we should realize that this was the plan all along.

[X-Era]

And just because it's not been said too much lately by all of us:

plan

[Don't Panic]

Great post Buddo. Very good perspective.

At this time, we NEED a QB, a #2 WR, a LG, and another TE if it is determined Chandler won't be ready to go by opening day. Whatever of those spots aren't filled in the next few days will HAVE to be filled in the draft. That's just to field a legitimate NFL lineup. Forget about fielding a competitive NFL lineup.

I hope we grab Moore for the LG spot at a minimum.

I'd also like to see another fringe starter/backup QB come in in case TJax proves to be unserviceable... maybe Kolb, Campbell or Josh Johnson.

There don't appear to be any WRs worthy of being a quality #2 left. Not sure its much of an upgrade to bring in Laurent Robinson or Massaquoi, but I'd be willing to take one just for another option.

The case could be made for a TE out there, but not a solid case. Ben Watson? Dallas Clark? Not very inspiring.

It would be nice to have only one need from this list going into draft day. I'd hate to feel pressured into going QB/WR or vice versa in the first two rounds, especially if there is a difference maker at another position that would offer a huge upgrade sitting there.

[X-Era]

Great post Buddo. Very good perspective.

At this time, we NEED a QB, a #2 WR, a LG, and another TE if it is determined Chandler won't be ready to go by opening day. Whatever of those spots aren't filled in the next few days will HAVE to be filled in the draft. That's just to field a legitimate NFL lineup. Forget about fielding a competitive NFL lineup.

I hope we grab Moore for the LG spot at a minimum.

I'd also like to see another fringe starter/backup QB come in in case TJax proves to be unserviceable... maybe Kolb, Campbell or Josh Johnson.

There don't appear to be any WRs worthy of being a quality #2 left. Not sure its much of an upgrade to bring in Laurent Robinson or Massaquoi, but I'd be willing to take one just for another option.

The case could be made for a TE out there, but not a solid case. Ben Watson? Dallas Clark? Not very inspiring.

It would be nice to have only one need from this list going into draft day. I'd hate to feel pressured into going QB/WR or vice versa in the first two rounds, especially if there is a difference maker at another position that would offer a huge upgrade sitting there.Why?

To me, Karlos Dansby is the 2nd best ILB available in FA this year (after Ellerbe). Yet he's unsigned. And it may take another week, weeks, or even a month or more to finally land with a team.

At G especially, what's the hurry? Is Brandon Moore so much better than about 6 other guys out there right now that we have to sign him in the next few days? Personally, I like Kevin Boothe.

The Bills wanted to wait because they have planned all along to sign solid vets at smaller contracts all along. And then there is no hurry to sign guys like that.

[mjt328]

Love it. They weren't prepared but you admit that their plan was to not spend big in FA. Well, was that their plan or not? And they are in the middle of executing their plan, as they designed it, but they apparently "don't know what else to do"? And we need a backup plan right now when we are actively executing our plan?

Sending everyone to evaluate the rookie QB's when they intend to draft and start one is the plan.

And since the big money has dried up, there is no rush to sign any of the mid-tier guys that they had planned to sign all along.

Their plan was to sign some mid-tier guys in the next few weeks or even month or two. That probably has been the plan since well before FA.

Look, we don't have to like the plan or agree with it. But I think we should realize that this was the plan all along.

I don't think you are catching what I'm saying.

A top run/prepared organization would have a strong grasp on every single free agent available, how much money they are worth, whether they fit our team and if it's worth pursuing them. There would also be an extensive backup plan for lower tiered players - in the event the guys we targeted are gone.

Say we are trying to upgrade receiver (just for example). If you don't want to pay for the top guys - Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, etc - then fine. I can understand that strategy. But you should still have an extensive list of free agent wide receivers that would improve our roster on the cheap. If those players are guys like Early Doucet, Kevin Walter or Devery Henderson, YOU STILL need to go after them aggressively and early. Just because a guy won't command a high salary doesn't mean you sit on your hands and wait a week. Because just like the top players on the market, they will disappear too very soon. Players are already signing for deals in the range of 1 year, $1.5 million.

According to Chris Brown himself (who is paid to make the Bills look good), our staff can't devote it's attention to free agency and the draft at the same time. That's absolutely pathetic.

It tells me that INSTEAD of doing their homework on all of the free agents, they had a short list of players to go after. When those guys disappeared, they had no idea who to pursue next, so they just gave up and decided to focus on the draft. Once the big pro days are over, our staff will sit back down and start examining the left overs and sign a couple worthless bums that nobody wanted.

If you really think about it, that explains why we didn't go after any other receivers after losing out on Robert Meachem last year. It also explains why we didn't go after another right tackle after losing out on Tyson Clabo the season before. The Bills are a second-rate organization with an old front office - and they refuse to put the time in necessary to make this team a winner.

[mjt328]

Why?

To me, Karlos Dansby is the 2nd best ILB available in FA this year (after Ellerbe). Yet he's unsigned. And it may take another week, weeks, or even a month or more to finally land with a team.

At G especially, what's the hurry? Is Brandon Moore so much better than about 6 other guys out there right now that we have to sign him in the next few days? Personally, I like Kevin Boothe.

The Bills wanted to wait because they have planned all along to sign solid vets at smaller contracts all along. And then there is no hurry to sign guys like that.

If those are the guys the Bills wanted all along, there ABSOLUTELY is a hurry to sign them. There are -after all - 31 other teams in the NFL.

I'm not arguing that plenty of good free agents are still on the market. I like Dansby, Brandon Moore, Bernard Pollard, Brandon Myers, etc.

The problem is, the Bills aren't pursuing anybody right now, because they are too wrapped up in pro days >>> Right from the mouth of their own puppet reporter.

[better days]

If those are the guys the Bills wanted all along, there ABSOLUTELY is a hurry to sign them. There are -after all - 31 other teams in the NFL.

I'm not arguing that plenty of good free agents are still on the market. I like Dansby, Brandon Moore, Bernard Pollard, Brandon Myers, etc.

The problem is, the Bills aren't pursuing anybody right now, because they are too wrapped up in pro days >>> Right from the mouth of their own puppet reporter.

NOBODY knows what is going on behind the scenes. NOBODY had a clue the Bills targeted Lawson until he was signed. I think this is how business will be done from now on.

[X-Era]

If those are the guys the Bills wanted all along, there ABSOLUTELY is a hurry to sign them. There are -after all - 31 other teams in the NFL.

I'm not arguing that plenty of good free agents are still on the market. I like Dansby, Brandon Moore, Bernard Pollard, Brandon Myers, etc.

The problem is, the Bills aren't pursuing anybody right now, because they are too wrapped up in pro days >>> Right from the mouth of their own puppet reporter.
There is zero hurry since no one else is in a big rush to sign them either. I'm just as impatient as you are. But really there is no need to be.