If the Bills Were to Draft a QB at #8, How Many Years Must They Commit to Him?

[SpikedLemonade]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.

[X-Era]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.
Due to the new rookie salary cap it's cheaper than ever before to draft a QB in the 1st. We could cut a player and not lose as much as before or simply keep him for depth since it's relatively inexpensive compared to starting QB rates.

[better days]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.

I am with you about investing in the position until we get a GOOD one.

IMO, the position should not be handed to anyone even the #8 pick. No matter who wins the COMPETITION this year, there should be COMPETITION every year until it is clear the guy starting is a FRANCHISE QB.

[SpikedLemonade]

Due to the new rookie salary cap it's cheaper than ever before to draft a QB in the 1st. We could cut a player and not lose as much as before or simply keep him for depth since it's relatively inexpensive compared to starting QB rates.

Thank you.

I know that.

What I don't know is whether our cheap chicken **** inferior management has the balls to say "hey we just screwed up" and be willing to move on by drafting another QB with their first pick.

I wish I thought they would be able to do that.

[SpikedLemonade]

I am with you about investing in the position until we get a GOOD one.

IMO, the position should not be handed to anyone even the #8 pick. No matter who wins the COMPETITION this year, there should be COMPETITION every year until it is clear the guy starting is a FRANCHISE QB.

Buddy, there really never is a true QB competition even though there should be.

Usually, management has invested in a highly drafted QB and will stick with him until the end of their regime.

Seattle last year may be the exception to the rule.

[YardRat]

Just like any position, if a perceived upgrade is available you get it. Will this FO act accordingly? Probably not...

[OpIv37]

Due to the new rookie salary cap it's cheaper than ever before to draft a QB in the 1st. We could cut a player and not lose as much as before or simply keep him for depth since it's relatively inexpensive compared to starting QB rates.

So tired of this terrible logic.

That strategy still costs us a good player with the #8 pick. A big reason why this team has been so bad for so long is poor drafting in the early rounds. Wasting a #8 pick sets the team back even if it costs 0 against the cap.

[better days]

Buddy, there really never is a true QB competition even though there should be.

Usually, management has invested in a highly drafted QB and will stick with him until the end of their regime.

Seattle last year may be the exception to the rule.

In every case, the higer paid / higher drafted player gets the edge in a close competition. If one guy clearly seperates himself however, I think any HC will give him that job because the job of the HC is to win games. Even if that guy is a 3rd rnd draft pick.

[The Toe Show]

No more waiting.

How many more underrated QBs are we going to let pass-by? We're like wallflowers waiting for the perfect woman to reveal herself to us... but every playa knows it's a numbers game.

There's no commitment bro, they should draft two this year. Just like the Redskins. Even with Cousins as second-banana, his value is exploding simply by showing flashes of competence - luring in doofus organizations like ours to spend double the value to acquire him.

The Bills should take a QB at 8 and repeat in the 3rd or 4th round.

We have to stop over-thinking this one.

[better days]

So tired of this terrible logic.

That strategy still costs us a good player with the #8 pick. A big reason why this team has been so bad for so long is poor drafting in the early rounds. Wasting a #8 pick sets the team back even if it costs 0 against the cap.

Using your logic, the Bills should draft a QB this year because they have not drafted one in the early rounds for a long time & have still drafted poorly. They are just as likely to hit on a QB as any other position because they don't hit on those either.

[OpIv37]

No more waiting.

How many more underrated QBs are we going to let pass-by? We're like wallflowers waiting for the perfect woman to reveal herself to us... but every playa knows it's a numbers game.

There's no commitment bro, they should draft two this year. Just like the Redskins. Even with Cousins as second-banana, his value is exploding simply by showing flashes of competence - luring in doofus organizations like ours to spend double the value to acquire him.

The Bills should take a QB at 8 and repeat in the 3rd or 4th round.

We have to stop over-thinking this one.

First, you want to model what the Bills do after the Redskins? Over the last 13 years or so, they have been barely better than the Bills.

Second, just because QB's were underrated in the past doesn't automatically mean the QB's in this draft are underrated too. The only way we find that guy is with better scouting, and there is no reason to believe we will get it with Nix.

Third, we have holes at QB, WR, OG, LB and CB, and six draft picks. The team ism doing nothing in FA. The lack of OG's and WR's will hold any QB back. Drafting two QB's all but assures glaring holes in the team.

It would be a straight up desperation move. Some of you are letting the desperation for a QB cloud your judgment.

[OpIv37]

Using your logic, the Bills should draft a QB this year because they have not drafted one in the early rounds for a long time & have still drafted poorly. They are just as likely to hit on a QB as any other position because they don't hit on those either.
They do sometimes- see Spiller.

We've had this argument before, though, and yet you continue to advocate a strategy that will do nothing but set this team back another 3 years. Hopefully the 2016 QB class is better than this one because we're headed for another 3 years of failure followed by another house cleaning if we waste the #8 on a QB.

[X-Era]

So tired of this terrible logic.

That strategy still costs us a good player with the #8 pick. A big reason why this team has been so bad for so long is poor drafting in the early rounds. Wasting a #8 pick sets the team back even if it costs 0 against the cap.
Any player we draft and doesn't pan out is a waste. The position doesn't matter.

I simply answered the original question. I'm not saying we should waste picks.

The main issue you and others have is where these QB's will get drafted versus where they should be drafted.

And I really don't know what to tell you. It is what it is. I'm not willing to just have the Bills ignore the way the QB's get over-drafted and only draft one if it's the BPA. We will likely never get one that way.

It's just the way it is.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.

We give the kid three years. He takes every snap and we keep the same system around him if at all possible. If he starts faltering we do not take him out because he has to learn from his mistakes to evolve. Naturally, however, I expect continued performance from years one to three. As much as I did not like JP or Trent, I will say that part of their problem was that during their learning curve we constantly switched coaches on them and gave up on them when they struggled a bit. Yes, I know that JP was a turn over machine and Trent was a noodle armer like fitz but we ruined any development potential he may have had. Face it, year one Geno, Nassib, EJ, or anyone else is going to stink and make mistakes. Year two they will also make mistakes but should make much fewer than year one. By year three they should be able to prove themselves.

[SpikedLemonade]

First, you want to model what the Bills do after the Redskins? Over the last 13 years or so, they have been barely better than the Bills.

Second, just because QB's were underrated in the past doesn't automatically mean the QB's in this draft are underrated too. The only way we find that guy is with better scouting, and there is no reason to believe we will get it with Nix.

Third, we have holes at QB, WR, OG, LB and CB, and six draft picks. The team ism doing nothing in FA. The lack of OG's and WR's will hold any QB back. Drafting two QB's all but assures glaring holes in the team.

It would be a straight up desperation move. Some of you are letting the desperation for a QB cloud your judgment.

You fail to mention that the Bills made most of these holes through poor planning.

I think the biggest flaw "the value" draftniks possess is that they are attempting to play sophisticated chess when the Bills are playing Special Olympics Checkers.

Maximizing value of a specific position should only be played by chess masters.

Breaking News -- The Bills are not that.

[SpikedLemonade]

We give the kid three years.

If that is the case, we can't draft a QB at #8 this year.

Draft OL and tank for next year.

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We give the kid three years.

If that is the case, we can't draft a QB at #8 this year.

Draft OL and tank for next year.

[better days]

They do sometimes- see Spiller.

We've had this argument before, though, and yet you continue to advocate a strategy that will do nothing but set this team back another 3 years. Hopefully the 2016 QB class is better than this one because we're headed for another 3 years of failure followed by another house cleaning if we waste the #8 on a QB.

Yeah we have had this argument before, & I still maintain it won't matter if the Bills draft a GOOD position player this year the Bills will make no improvement until they get a GOOD QB.

[X-Era]

Yeah we have had this argument before, & I still maintain it won't matter if the Bills draft a GOOD position player this year the Bills will make no improvement until they get a GOOD QB.
Without a franchise QB we will be mediocre at best.

[mrbojanglezs]

1 if he sucks draft one next year as the class will be better

[OpIv37]

Yeah we have had this argument before, & I still maintain it won't matter if the Bills draft a GOOD position player this year the Bills will make no improvement until they get a GOOD QB.

until we improve the rest of the team, putting any QB on this team is throwing him to the wolves. See Losman and Edwards. He will be shell-shocked and useless in 2 years. Add to that the question marks with these particular QB's and you have a recipe for disaster.

This team needs a QB. They need a lot of other positions too. We are not going to get them all this year. You want a good QB? Wait until a good one is available. Don't draft one at 8 and then say he's good because he got drafted 8th.

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Without a franchise QB we will be mediocre at best.

Well, there are no franchise QB's in this draft or in FA.

[OpIv37]

Any player we draft and doesn't pan out is a waste. The position doesn't matter.

I simply answered the original question. I'm not saying we should waste picks.

The main issue you and others have is where these QB's will get drafted versus where they should be drafted.

And I really don't know what to tell you. It is what it is. I'm not willing to just have the Bills ignore the way the QB's get over-drafted and only draft one if it's the BPA. We will likely never get one that way.

It's just the way it is.
Except that this is a weak QB draft class and we have a high draft pick. That's a terrible combination- reaching for a QB this year is all but doomed to failure.

We need a franchise QB. There isn't one available. It's just the way it is.

Use the pick to fill other holes. This team needs to get someone who makes the team significantly better with the #8 pick. They just can't afford not to.

[X-Era]

Except that this is a weak QB draft class and we have a high draft pick. That's a terrible combination- reaching for a QB this year is all but doomed to failure.

We need a franchise QB. There isn't one available. It's just the way it is.

Use the pick to fill other holes. This team needs to get someone who makes the team significantly better with the #8 pick. They just can't afford not to.You realize we can't get a Luck type prospect unless we have the #1 pick right?

And so if we don't have the #1 pick and they get over-drafted every year, won't we always be in the "reach" scenario?

[OpIv37]

You realize we can't get a Luck type prospect unless we have the #1 pick right?

And so if we don't have the #1 pick and they get over-drafted every year, won't we always be in the "reach" scenario?

we will always be in some type of reach scenario. Not all reach scenarios are equivalent.

But we won't always have a draft pick this high and/or the QB class won't always be this bad. Maybe if we are at or near 8 next year, it'll be a stronger overall draft class and we can trade down, still get a QB with less of a reach and get an extra pick out of the deal. Or maybe we'll have more picks so we can afford to trade up and grab someone who has an early 2nd round grade late in the the first. There are dozens of possibilities that are more palatable than using the #8 on one of this year's QB's.

[better days]

we will always be in some type of reach scenario. Not all reach scenarios are equivalent.

But we won't always have a draft pick this high and/or the QB class won't always be this bad. Maybe if we are at or near 8 next year, it'll be a stronger overall draft class and we can trade down, still get a QB with less of a reach and get an extra pick out of the deal. Or maybe we'll have more picks so we can afford to trade up and grab someone who has an early 2nd round grade late in the the first. There are dozens of possibilities that are more palatable than using the #8 on one of this year's QB's.

And MAYBE the QB class will not be as strong as this class is next year except for one or two guys that will be out of our reach.

To me the only palatable way to watch this team next year is with a QB that I can have some hope about. There is a much better chance of that with a QB drafted at #8 than at #41.

[Novacane]

So tired of this terrible logic.

That strategy still costs us a good player with the #8 pick. A big reason why this team has been so bad for so long is poor drafting in the early rounds. Wasting a #8 pick sets the team back even if it costs 0 against the cap.


I'm sick of the logic that if we draft a position other than QB we'll get a good player. Mike Williams, Mckelvin, Whitner, Maybin etc!

[SpikedLemonade]

But we won't always have a draft pick this high....

I am prepared to bet that in the next 5 years -- 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 -- we will have a pick in the top 10 at least 3 times.

Any takersÉ

[OpIv37]

And MAYBE the QB class will not be as strong as this class is next year except for one or two guys that will be out of our reach.

To me the only palatable way to watch this team next year is with a QB that I can have some hope about. There is a much better chance of that with a QB drafted at #8 than at #41.

Not when the QB you take at 8 should be taken at 41.

[better days]

Not when the QB you take at 8 should be taken at 41.

According to who? There is no Andrew Luck or RGIII in this draft class. But maybe there is a Russell Wilson. The problem is with no Luck or RGIII in this draft, & with all the QB NEEDY teams, that QB that would have fallen will be drafted MUCH higher this year.

If he plays as well as Wilson, it won't matter if he is drafted at #8.

[trapezeus]

and you know, based on the bills front office "job for life despite performance", there should be no issues to cut bait a year into it. it's not like you release the guy. you just draft another one and ask for him to outcompete him.

[OpIv37]

I'm sick of the logic that if we draft a position other than QB we'll get a good player. Mike Williams, Mckelvin, Whitner, Maybin etc!

Once again, QB is notoriously the hardest position to evaluate. There are no guarantees, but picking a different position greatly increases the odds. Plus, with the possible exception of CB, the learning curve is less steep on the other positions, so it's more likely that a player at another position will contribute THIS year.

[OpIv37]

According to who? There is no Andrew Luck or RGIII in this draft class. But maybe there is a Russell Wilson. The problem is with no Luck or RGIII in this draft, & with all the QB NEEDY teams, that QB that would have fallen will be drafted MUCH higher this year.

If he plays as well as Wilson, it won't matter if he is drafted at #8.

So, because Wilson was the exception to the rule, we should overdraft a QB this year.

Great logic.

[better days]

So, because Wilson was the exception to the rule, we should overdraft a QB this year.

Great logic.

Tom Brady was the exception to the rule. Wilson just had the misfortune of being SHORT & in the same draft class with Luck & RGIII.

[better days]

until we improve the rest of the team, putting any QB on this team is throwing him to the wolves. See Losman and Edwards. He will be shell-shocked and useless in 2 years. Add to that the question marks with these particular QB's and you have a recipe for disaster.

This team needs a QB. They need a lot of other positions too. We are not going to get them all this year. You want a good QB? Wait until a good one is available. Don't draft one at 8 and then say he's good because he got drafted 8th.

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Well, there are no franchise QB's in this draft or in FA.

IMO, BOTH Losman & Edwards were RUINED by BAD Coaching NOT by the players on the team. We will have to see about Marrone, & I was not a fan of his hire, but I am coming around to liking him after hearing him talk & hearing other people I respect praise him.

As far as QBs available, YOU don't KNOW that there are no franchise QBs available in this draft. Time will tell, just as it will tell how good Marrone is as a HC in the NFL.

[SpikedLemonade]

As far as QBs available, YOU don't KNOW that there are no franchise QBs available in this draft. Time will tell, just as it will tell how good Marrone is as a HC in the NFL.

All I am asking is that that time be short if it begins badly.

[TacklingDummy]

That strategy still costs us a good player with the #8 pick. A big reason why this team has been so bad for so long is poor drafting in the early rounds. Wasting a #8 pick sets the team back even if it costs 0 against the cap.

And the main reason is, the Quarterback position.

[TacklingDummy]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.
I think they can tell within a year if a QB is going to get it or not. I have no problem drafting QB in back to back draft or cutting the one you just drafted the prior year.

[swiper]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.

In the past I wouldn't have agreed with this strategy. Now I do. I think that they should be planning to take a QB in the first next year.

[The Jokeman]

It really depends on what happens in 2013. As if we take a guy in the 2nd Round or later and he struggles really bad and a better prospect comes around the following year then maybe it's a 1 year plan (see Jimmy Caussen and Kellen Clements examples) but honestly I say in most cases I say you give a guy at least two full seasons but more likely three to see what he has to offer.

[better days]

It really depends on what happens in 2013. As if we take a guy in the 2nd Round or later and he struggles really bad and a better prospect comes around the following year then maybe it's a 1 year plan (see Jimmy Caussen and Kellen Clements examples) but honestly I say in most cases I say you give a guy at least two full seasons but more likely three to see what he has to offer.

Well, I hope Marrone is truthful & it is an open competition every year.

[The Jokeman]

According to who? There is no Andrew Luck or RGIII in this draft class. But maybe there is a Russell Wilson. The problem is with no Luck or RGIII in this draft, & with all the QB NEEDY teams, that QB that would have fallen will be drafted MUCH higher this year.

If he plays as well as Wilson, it won't matter if he is drafted at #8.

The question will always be, would Russell Wilson be as good as he was had the Seahawks not taken Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner before him? I always say the draft about getting the best collection of players. To me if we take a QB at #8 the best comparison we could make would be that of what Tannehill did in Miami last year.

[jwenger]

To me it is not about value at the draft position. The Bills have no idea what value means.

The issue to me is whether they are prepared to cut bait on a #8 overall drafted QB after even as short as one year if he shows no signs of being a franchise QB. Do we have management that feels secure enough to admitting they made a mistake?

In other words, if we end up wasting a #8 overall pick this year on a QB is of less concern to me then wasting 3 years stubbornly sticking to a QB we drafted so highly.

I am all for drafting a QB in the 1st round this year and again in the 1st round next year.

Just keep investing into the QB position until we get it right.

The rest will follow.

Sounds like the good old Spike. I agree with you 100%. Everything you said
was spot on.I'd say take the best one that is there at #8 and let him play
and start all year and get another QB next year. Can't have too many QB's
when you are trying to hit on a franchise guy. I think if we get Kevin Kolb
he will screw up the whole works. Just my opinion.

[better days]

The question will always be, would Russell Wilson be as good as he was had the Seahawks not taken Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner before him? I always say the draft about getting the best collection of players. To me if we take a QB at #8 the best comparison we could make would be that of what Tannehill did in Miami last year.

The Seahawks would not have been as good, but Wilson is who he is. He would have been just as good if he were drafted in the first rnd.

The point is the Seahawks were LUCKY he was available when they drafted him. Knowing now how good he is, do you think they would have let him sit there giving another team the chance to draft him?