my thought on QB moves in last couple days

[trapezeus]

my feeling is this draft is going to be the rich getting richer. The weak teams who needed qb's are going to hesitate on taking a qb because they have a little stability on the cheap. maybe KC takes geno smith because he doesn't need to start and they can work on him for 2 years as a backup, etc. Reid isn't shy of having good qb's as backups.

But then from there, Raiders, Bills, Cards will all say, "listen we got a guy who can play QB, we want value of the BPA to fill other needs. Oh and we can get our guy in round 2"

Then its the teams who are traditionally pretty good with QB's or aging QB's that are going to stick it to the lower teams like the raiders, cards, bills and take their QB in Wilson, Nassib, Barkely in spots 15-32. And the gamble that the bad teams took that their guy would be there in round 2 will not necessarily be true.

Not all those guys have to go to teams in 15-32, but just having one QB go to a team you didn't see coming means that the raiders, cards, jets, bills might trade up to get back to get their guy. or the pickings will be slim in round 2 and guys like a landry jones or bray who should go in rounds 3-4 might squeak up into the second in a mass qb sale.

And this will keep the good teams stay good because the weak qb class won't have to start, will learn in a stable environment, and learn from good QB's. Meanwhile the bad teams will be trading picks to good teams, or taking a flyer ahead of other possible needs from guaranteed good players. They'll start their guy way before they should and won't have the depth to help the rookie QB out.

Of course, it could not happen like this at all. And you can rag on me all you want. but this is what my gut is saying. But if the bills get BPA (aka. not a qb in round 1) and get nassib/wilson/bray in round 2.....i'm going to be relieved and start buying into the fact that these next three years just might have a playoff appearance at the end of it.

[Night Train]

this is what my gut is saying

http://cdn3.fiverrcdn.com/photos/936519/medium/talking_Stomach_pic2.jpg?1344254005

Nassib could probably play right away but the rest need time. That's why Kolb starting initially while the rookie is brought up to speed is a very real plan.

Still, we don't want to pick Nassib unless he really can play at this level effectively. Certainly don't need another Fitz/Chan scenerio where the coach won't consider anyone but "his guy" and stick his head in the sand when it's obvious to the world it isn't working. I'll defer to Marrone to make the right call. It's his neck and he gets 3 years anyhow.

[jdaltroy5]

Traditionally, QBs don't get selected in the last half of the first round.

Teams in that range tend to already have a QB (that's why they're not selecting in the top half of the draft) and they're only a few pieces away from winning a championship.

The last time a playoff team took a QB in the first round was back in 2005 when the Packers took Rodgers.

[trapezeus]

Traditionally, QBs don't get selected in the last half of the first round.

Teams in that range tend to already have a QB (that's why they're not selecting in the top half of the draft) and they're only a few pieces away from winning a championship.

The last time a playoff team took a QB in the first round was back in 2005 when the Packers took Rodgers.


i realize that, but i'm just saying it might be a chip to play if the BPA is the QB and you want to try and leverage a bad team to trade up.


i just don't think we've seen a qb class hyped up to be so average. usually there is one or two guys that has everyone convinced they'll be good.

[jdaltroy5]

i realize that, but i'm just saying it might be a chip to play if the BPA is the QB and you want to try and leverage a bad team to trade up.


i just don't think we've seen a qb class hyped up to be so average. usually there is one or two guys that has everyone convinced they'll be good.

I'm sorry, I didn't really understand your post then.

Are you basically saying that the good teams will either take a QB in the first or trade away their pick to a crappy team so they can take their QB in the first?

How is that different from any other year?

[trapezeus]

good teams will either say, "look the best player on the board is that QB. We don't necessarily need him, but look at the teams below us. they aren't getting any better and the player in a position we need isn't there. Let's take so and so. then call the bad team and see if we can get "enter the name of the one good player on a bad team" and we'll send the qb over. or we have insurance at a key role."

I just don't think we've seen a year where the QB's were so average and the bad teams are so intent on not taking flyer on a QB at 1-15. And they seem to be gambling that their guys will be there in round 2 because good teams normally don't take qb's in the latter parts of the first.

other years, i think bad teams are willing to reach for average qbs early, and then the other positions fall into round 1 and the good teams have no brainers to stick to their board. you're telling me someone like seattle or the 49ers who don't have a back up wouldn't be very curious to get a firsst round talent in the event their star goes down?

Just my gut. like i said, i could be and most likley will be wrong...but this draft class just feels very different from other years.

[jdaltroy5]

good teams will either say, "look the best player on the board is that QB. We don't necessarily need him, but look at the teams below us. they aren't getting any better and the player in a position we need isn't there. Let's take so and so. then call the bad team and see if we can get "enter the name of the one good player on a bad team" and we'll send the qb over. or we have insurance at a key role."

I just don't think we've seen a year where the QB's were so average and the bad teams are so intent on not taking flyer on a QB at 1-15. And they seem to be gambling that their guys will be there in round 2 because good teams normally don't take qb's in the latter parts of the first.

other years, i think bad teams are willing to reach for average qbs early, and then the other positions fall into round 1 and the good teams have no brainers to stick to their board. you're telling me someone like seattle or the 49ers who don't have a back up wouldn't be very curious to get a firsst round talent in the event their star goes down?

Just my gut. like i said, i could be and most likley will be wrong...but this draft class just feels very different from other years.

Well there's a very easy way to remedy that.

Identify who you think is the best QB in the draft and take him at 8.

No need to get cute and hope someone doesn't trade back into the first or any of that other nonsense.

[Albany,n.y.]

Traditionally, QBs don't get selected in the last half of the first round.

Teams in that range tend to already have a QB (that's why they're not selecting in the top half of the draft) and they're only a few pieces away from winning a championship.

The last time a playoff team took a QB in the first round was back in 2005 when the Packers took Rodgers.
QBs are drafted in the 2nd half of the 1st round all the time-by teams that use a traded for pick.
In the past 10 drafts 10 QBs have been taken between picks 17 and 32. With the exception of Aaron Rodgers, the other 9 were drafted using a traded for pick. Rodgers was the only one a team didn't trade for the pick. So while your conclusion that teams in that range tend to already have a QB appears to be correct, the premise doesn't work because teams that need a QB trade back into the 2nd half of the 1st round all the time.
Here they are:
2003: Kyle Boller 19 Balt, Rex Grossman 22 Chi
2004: JP Losman 22 Bills
2005: Aaron Rodgers 24 GB, Jason Campbell 25 Wash
2007: Brady Quinn 22 Cle
2008: Joe Flacco 18 Balt
2009: Josh Freeman 17 TB
2010: Tim Tebow 25 Den
2012: Brandon Weeden 22 Cle

[jdaltroy5]

QBs are drafted in the 2nd half of the 1st round all the time-by teams that use a traded for pick.
In the past 10 drafts 10 QBs have been taken between picks 17 and 32. With the exception of Aaron Rodgers, the other 9 were drafted using a traded for pick. Rodgers was the only one a team didn't trade for the pick. So while your conclusion that teams in that range tend to already have a QB appears to be correct, the premise doesn't work because teams that need a QB trade back into the 2nd half of the 1st round all the time.
Here they are:
2003: Kyle Boller 19 Balt, Rex Grossman 22 Chi
2004: JP Losman 22 Bills
2005: Aaron Rodgers 24 GB, Jason Campbell 25 Wash
2007: Brady Quinn 22 Cle
2008: Joe Flacco 18 Balt
2009: Josh Freeman 17 TB
2010: Tim Tebow 25 Den
2012: Brandon Weeden 22 Cle

I never said they weren't.

From what I gathered, he was trying to say that a good team might snag a QB to try to groom him for the future.

I was just stating the fact that that scenario hasn't happened in the last 7 drafts, so it's not likely to happen this draft.