Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

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  • mjt328
    Registered User
    • May 2011
    • 636

    Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

    We all know Buddy Nix is not a "smokescreen" kind of guy.

    From Day 1 on the job, he's never been the type to try and disguise his intentions from the public. With that said, I think it's becoming clearer every day (by looking at pro day attendance, OBD visits, listening to the front office speak) what players the Bills are seriously considering at #8 - and where they will be going later in the draft.


    We've all heard Nix talk about the Bills needs. He's mentioned Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Linebacker and Safety.
    It's not a coincidence that virtually EVERY private visit scheduled at ODB has been from these 5 positions.
    No offensive tackles. No offensive guards. No running backs. No defensive linemen. No cornerbacks.


    From my count, there are exactly 5 prospects that experts/mocks are pegging for the top half of the 1st round that we have also called in for visits.
    - Geno Smith, QB
    - Dion Jordan, LB
    - Jarvis Jones, LB
    - Alec Ogletree, LB
    - Kenny Vacarro, S


    Looking at mock drafts for us, there are a few common names that are noticeably absent.

    The first is WR Corderalle Patterson. The Bills apparently met with a handful of Tennessee players on Saturday, but not Patterson. They also have NOT met with projected 1st rounders Tavon Austin or Keenan Allen. Buffalo has, however, met with late-1st/2nd round prospects Justin Hunter, Robert Woods and Ryan Swope - along with a number of mid-round receivers.
    This tells me that Nix is absolutely not targeting a WR in the first round. Since he knows Patterson, Austin and Allen will be gone, he's focusing on getting someone 2nd round or later.

    I also notice that Buffalo has not scheduled meetings with Lane Johnson OT, Chance Warmack OG (or any other offensive lineman for that matter).
    After last year's draft, Nix laughed at experts who pegged Cordy Glenn as a guard. Sorry folks, he's not moving inside. And in his taped phone conversation with the TB GM, he specifically stated the he was good at tackle. I'm not sure why they are so confident at guard after losing Levitre and Rinehart - but the Bills have shown little to no interest at finding a replacement so far.

    Also missing from the list are Tyler Eifert, Zack Ertz and pretty much all of the tight ends expected to go in the first couple rounds. We know they are after this position since they swung and missed on Fred Davis. However, this makes me very skeptical they are looking to grab a TE early.



    It's pretty clear that Buffalo's NUMBER ONE priority is quarterback. They have gone to multiple pro-days and scheduled private visits/workouts with virtually every prospect coming out in 2013 - from Geno Smith down to a couple who may go undrafted. With the acquisition of Kolb, I think they are leaving as many options open as possible.
    If Smith is available at #8, I think there is an excellent chance we pull the trigger. If not, I think the Bills will sit tight and hope for someone in Round 2. They may have a couple targets at that spot. If some names start coming off the board before #41, don't be surprised at all to see them trade up. And I also won't be surprised to see them grab another QB in the late rounds or as an UDFA.


    My full expectation for the 2013 draft is something like this:

    Round 1: Geno Smith
    Round 2: Top WR or Top LB

    or

    Round 1: Dion Jordan/Jarvis Jones/Alec Ogletree/Kenny Vacarro
    Round 2: Top QB
    2013 "My Should Have" Draft
    Posted During the 2013 Draft
    1 - (16): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
    2 - (41): Robert Woods, WR, USC
    2 - (46): Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
    3 - (78): Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
    4 - (105): Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
    5 - (143): Brandon Jenkins, LB, Florida State
    6 - (177): Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
    7 - (222): Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee

    2013 Buddy Nix Draft
    1 - (16): E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State
    2 - (41): Robert Woods, WR, USC
    2 - (46): Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon
    3 - (78): Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
    4 - (105): Duke Williams, FS, Nevada
    5 - (143): Jonathan Meeks, SS, Clemson
    6 - (177): Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida State
    7 - (222): Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas
  • MidnightVoice
    Retired (mostly)
    • Mar 2003
    • 10791

    #2
    Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

    This looks very well thought out. But it all predicated on the possibly erroneous concept that someone in the Bills organization actually knows what they are doing

    But to play
    that’s the thing
    shut up and deal
    ~ Jesse May

    Comment

    • mjt328
      Registered User
      • May 2011
      • 636

      #3
      Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

      Originally posted by MidnightVoice View Post
      This looks very well thought out. But it all predicated on the possibly erroneous concept that someone in the Bills organization actually knows what they are doing
      Actually quite the opposite.

      Even after all the research they are putting into this 2013 QB Class, I still think Buffalo is just going with whatever prospect falls to them. Either Smith in the 1st, or Barkley, Wilson, Manuel, Nassib, Glennon, Bray in the 2nd. I'm not confident at all they know what they are doing.
      2013 "My Should Have" Draft
      Posted During the 2013 Draft
      1 - (16): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
      2 - (41): Robert Woods, WR, USC
      2 - (46): Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
      3 - (78): Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
      4 - (105): Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
      5 - (143): Brandon Jenkins, LB, Florida State
      6 - (177): Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
      7 - (222): Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee

      2013 Buddy Nix Draft
      1 - (16): E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State
      2 - (41): Robert Woods, WR, USC
      2 - (46): Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon
      3 - (78): Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
      4 - (105): Duke Williams, FS, Nevada
      5 - (143): Jonathan Meeks, SS, Clemson
      6 - (177): Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida State
      7 - (222): Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas

      Comment

      • k-oneputt
        Registered User
        • Jun 2009
        • 7132

        #4
        Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

        Maybe they go all USC;

        Barkley and Woods.

        They fit the offense they will be running.

        Comment

        • Don't Panic
          All-Pro Zoner
          • Dec 2005
          • 4227

          #5
          Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

          Great thread start. I agree on all the premises. I don't see Vacarro being a legit option at the end of the day and I could see us passing on a WR in the 2nd, but other than that I think you have it very well pegged.

          Comment

          • OpIv37
            Acid Douching Asswipe
            • Sep 2002
            • 101313

            #6
            Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

            If you look at how the Bills have drafted for the last 13 years or so, I'd say their draft "strategy" involves a magic 8 ball and lots of tequila shots.
            MiKiDo Facebook
            MiKiDo Website

            Comment

            • Raptor
              Registered User
              • Jan 2009
              • 1303

              #7
              Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

              Good work man

              Comment

              • X-Era
                What this generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace
                • Feb 2005
                • 27670

                #8
                Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                Originally posted by k-oneputt View Post
                Maybe they go all USC;

                Barkley and Woods.

                They fit the offense they will be running.
                I'd be fine with that.

                Comment

                • mjt328
                  Registered User
                  • May 2011
                  • 636

                  #9
                  Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                  Originally posted by Don't Panic View Post
                  Great thread start. I agree on all the premises. I don't see Vacarro being a legit option at the end of the day and I could see us passing on a WR in the 2nd, but other than that I think you have it very well pegged.
                  Last year, there were many reports that Buffalo was VERY high on Mark Barron. We heard very little about him going to the Bills until about mid-April, then suddenly the word leaked and most of the mock drafts suddenly switched us to picking Barron. He went a couple spots to Tampa Bay before we picked, so I guess we can never know for sure.

                  This offseason, we lost one of our starters in George Wilson.
                  Jairus Byrd is on a one-year franchise deal. He will be an unrestricted free agent again next year, unless we clear the room and somehow sign him to an extension.
                  Our only other options are Searcy and Scott. I haven't heard the coaching staff even suggest the possiblity of Aaron Williams moving.
                  Those famiilar with Pettine's system say the safety position is very important. There were plenty of options available on the free agent market, but we basically ignored them all.


                  Like it or not, I can definitely see us going with Vacarro.
                  2013 "My Should Have" Draft
                  Posted During the 2013 Draft
                  1 - (16): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
                  2 - (41): Robert Woods, WR, USC
                  2 - (46): Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
                  3 - (78): Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
                  4 - (105): Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
                  5 - (143): Brandon Jenkins, LB, Florida State
                  6 - (177): Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
                  7 - (222): Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee

                  2013 Buddy Nix Draft
                  1 - (16): E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State
                  2 - (41): Robert Woods, WR, USC
                  2 - (46): Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon
                  3 - (78): Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
                  4 - (105): Duke Williams, FS, Nevada
                  5 - (143): Jonathan Meeks, SS, Clemson
                  6 - (177): Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida State
                  7 - (222): Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas

                  Comment

                  • Gibby
                    Registered User
                    • Jun 2006
                    • 18211

                    #10
                    Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                    They watch the draft, see who's been taken, and then play pin the tail on the draft pick. That's right, they put a blindfold on buddy nix, spin him around three times and then they shove him towards the board with the pictures of available players. Its actually how they make all their decisions.

                    Comment

                    • SpikedLemonade
                      • Jun 2024

                      #11
                      Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                      Originally posted by Suetonius View Post
                      They watch the draft, see who's been taken, and then play pin the tail on the draft pick. That's right, they put a blindfold on buddy nix, spin him around three times and then they shove him towards the board with the pictures of available players. Its actually how they make all their decisions.
                      Judging from Buddy's record of success thus far, he is likely to poke himself in the eye this year.

                      Comment

                      • bosshogg21
                        Registered User
                        • Aug 2007
                        • 230

                        #12
                        Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                        Great... Vaccaro. Prepare for the donte whitner situation all over again. If they take a f'ng safety or corner when they can finally get their hands on some qb prospects I'll be in the market for a new tv.

                        Comment

                        • clumping platelets

                          #13
                          Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                          Geno at #8

                          Comment

                          • Swiper
                            Legendary Zoner
                            • Sep 2010
                            • 33105

                            #14
                            Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                            Round 1: Jarvis Jones or Eric Fisher - unless somebody else falls out of top 7 or the Raiders/Jaguars/Browns/Cards do something unexpected.

                            Round 2: QB

                            This has been their plan all along.

                            Comment

                            • Swiper
                              Legendary Zoner
                              • Sep 2010
                              • 33105

                              #15
                              Re: Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

                              Originally posted by clumping platelets View Post
                              Geno at #8
                              You've said that already.

                              Take an aspirin. It interferes with clumping platelets.

                              Comment

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