Deciphering the Bills draft strategy

[mjt328]

We all know Buddy Nix is not a "smokescreen" kind of guy.

From Day 1 on the job, he's never been the type to try and disguise his intentions from the public. With that said, I think it's becoming clearer every day (by looking at pro day attendance, OBD visits, listening to the front office speak) what players the Bills are seriously considering at #8 - and where they will be going later in the draft.


We've all heard Nix talk about the Bills needs. He's mentioned Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Linebacker and Safety.
It's not a coincidence that virtually EVERY private visit scheduled at ODB has been from these 5 positions.
No offensive tackles. No offensive guards. No running backs. No defensive linemen. No cornerbacks.


From my count, there are exactly 5 prospects that experts/mocks are pegging for the top half of the 1st round that we have also called in for visits.
- Geno Smith, QB
- Dion Jordan, LB
- Jarvis Jones, LB
- Alec Ogletree, LB
- Kenny Vacarro, S


Looking at mock drafts for us, there are a few common names that are noticeably absent.

The first is WR Corderalle Patterson. The Bills apparently met with a handful of Tennessee players on Saturday, but not Patterson. They also have NOT met with projected 1st rounders Tavon Austin or Keenan Allen. Buffalo has, however, met with late-1st/2nd round prospects Justin Hunter, Robert Woods and Ryan Swope - along with a number of mid-round receivers.
This tells me that Nix is absolutely not targeting a WR in the first round. Since he knows Patterson, Austin and Allen will be gone, he's focusing on getting someone 2nd round or later.

I also notice that Buffalo has not scheduled meetings with Lane Johnson OT, Chance Warmack OG (or any other offensive lineman for that matter).
After last year's draft, Nix laughed at experts who pegged Cordy Glenn as a guard. Sorry folks, he's not moving inside. And in his taped phone conversation with the TB GM, he specifically stated the he was good at tackle. I'm not sure why they are so confident at guard after losing Levitre and Rinehart - but the Bills have shown little to no interest at finding a replacement so far.

Also missing from the list are Tyler Eifert, Zack Ertz and pretty much all of the tight ends expected to go in the first couple rounds. We know they are after this position since they swung and missed on Fred Davis. However, this makes me very skeptical they are looking to grab a TE early.



It's pretty clear that Buffalo's NUMBER ONE priority is quarterback. They have gone to multiple pro-days and scheduled private visits/workouts with virtually every prospect coming out in 2013 - from Geno Smith down to a couple who may go undrafted. With the acquisition of Kolb, I think they are leaving as many options open as possible.
If Smith is available at #8, I think there is an excellent chance we pull the trigger. If not, I think the Bills will sit tight and hope for someone in Round 2. They may have a couple targets at that spot. If some names start coming off the board before #41, don't be surprised at all to see them trade up. And I also won't be surprised to see them grab another QB in the late rounds or as an UDFA.


My full expectation for the 2013 draft is something like this:

Round 1: Geno Smith
Round 2: Top WR or Top LB

or

Round 1: Dion Jordan/Jarvis Jones/Alec Ogletree/Kenny Vacarro
Round 2: Top QB

[MidnightVoice]

This looks very well thought out. But it all predicated on the possibly erroneous concept that someone in the Bills organization actually knows what they are doing :(

[mjt328]

This looks very well thought out. But it all predicated on the possibly erroneous concept that someone in the Bills organization actually knows what they are doing :(

Actually quite the opposite.

Even after all the research they are putting into this 2013 QB Class, I still think Buffalo is just going with whatever prospect falls to them. Either Smith in the 1st, or Barkley, Wilson, Manuel, Nassib, Glennon, Bray in the 2nd. I'm not confident at all they know what they are doing.

[k-oneputt]

Maybe they go all USC;

Barkley and Woods.

They fit the offense they will be running.

[Don't Panic]

Great thread start. I agree on all the premises. I don't see Vacarro being a legit option at the end of the day and I could see us passing on a WR in the 2nd, but other than that I think you have it very well pegged.

[OpIv37]

If you look at how the Bills have drafted for the last 13 years or so, I'd say their draft "strategy" involves a magic 8 ball and lots of tequila shots.

[Raptor]

Good work man

[X-Era]

Maybe they go all USC;

Barkley and Woods.

They fit the offense they will be running.
I'd be fine with that.

[mjt328]

Great thread start. I agree on all the premises. I don't see Vacarro being a legit option at the end of the day and I could see us passing on a WR in the 2nd, but other than that I think you have it very well pegged.

Last year, there were many reports that Buffalo was VERY high on Mark Barron. We heard very little about him going to the Bills until about mid-April, then suddenly the word leaked and most of the mock drafts suddenly switched us to picking Barron. He went a couple spots to Tampa Bay before we picked, so I guess we can never know for sure.

This offseason, we lost one of our starters in George Wilson.
Jairus Byrd is on a one-year franchise deal. He will be an unrestricted free agent again next year, unless we clear the room and somehow sign him to an extension.
Our only other options are Searcy and Scott. I haven't heard the coaching staff even suggest the possiblity of Aaron Williams moving.
Those famiilar with Pettine's system say the safety position is very important. There were plenty of options available on the free agent market, but we basically ignored them all.


Like it or not, I can definitely see us going with Vacarro.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

They watch the draft, see who's been taken, and then play pin the tail on the draft pick. That's right, they put a blindfold on buddy nix, spin him around three times and then they shove him towards the board with the pictures of available players. Its actually how they make all their decisions.

[SpikedLemonade]

They watch the draft, see who's been taken, and then play pin the tail on the draft pick. That's right, they put a blindfold on buddy nix, spin him around three times and then they shove him towards the board with the pictures of available players. Its actually how they make all their decisions.

Judging from Buddy's record of success thus far, he is likely to poke himself in the eye this year.

[bosshogg21]

Great... Vaccaro. Prepare for the donte whitner situation all over again. If they take a f'ng safety or corner when they can finally get their hands on some qb prospects I'll be in the market for a new tv.

[clumping platelets]

Geno at #8 :down:

[swiper]

Round 1: Jarvis Jones or Eric Fisher - unless somebody else falls out of top 7 or the Raiders/Jaguars/Browns/Cards do something unexpected.

Round 2: QB

This has been their plan all along.

[swiper]

Geno at #8 :down:

You've said that already.

Take an aspirin. It interferes with clumping platelets.

[mjt328]

Round 1: Jarvis Jones or Eric Fisher - unless somebody else falls out of top 7 or the Raiders/Jaguars/Browns/Cards do something unexpected.

Round 2: QB

This has been their plan all along.

Just curious. What makes you think they have an interest in Fisher?

[TigerJ]

If you look at how the Bills have drafted for the last 13 years or so, I'd say their draft "strategy" involves a magic 8 ball and lots of tequila shots.To be perfectly honest, OpIv, I don't think what the Bills were doing 13 years ago has any relevance in judging whether or not the Bills have a defensible draft strategy today. Whether they do or not is a matter of opinion, but there is almost nobody in a decision making position with respect to the draft whose tenure goes back nearly that far.

[OpIv37]

To be perfectly honest, OpIv, I don't think what the Bills were doing 13 years ago has any relevance in judging whether or not the Bills have a defensible draft strategy today. Whether they do or not is a matter of opinion, but there is almost nobody in a decision making position with respect to the draft whose tenure goes back nearly that far.
Well Nix has blood in his hands for the last 3 years and I believe he was an advisor to the team for a draft before that. And the people who pick the people who do our draft- Russ and Ralph- haven't changed.

[OpIv37]

They watch the draft, see who's been taken, and then play pin the tail on the draft pick. That's right, they put a blindfold on buddy nix, spin him around three times and then they shove him towards the board with the pictures of available players. Its actually how they make all their decisions.

I wish they had done that. They are so incompetent that they would have done better by random chance than they did by actually trying.

[Night Train]

To be honest I don't think we know anything, despite all our access to 24/7 info. The Bills have scouted everyone and everything, while basically saying nothing. Marrone is been very quiet and despite all the talk about Nix, Whaley and what they want...it's really the coach that should be consulted for the final say. It's his neck. The new guy needs to establish himself and set the proper tone ASAP.

There is waaaaaaaay too much assumption, surrounding this draft...which leads me to believe this place will explode with emotions, come draft weekend. Those narrowing their focus to a precious few players will be upset and start their predictable "look at me cry " act.

The Bills are rebuilding, no matter what anyone says and all the warts will not be cured in one off-season. Select good players and do it again next year.

[kishoph]

Geno at #8 :down:

The first time I heard Nix talk about Smith (a few months back), he didn't seem very impressed. I really don't think that Smith would be their first choice at QB, at least I hope not.

[swiper]

Just curious. What makes you think they have an interest in Fisher?

He's a stud. For all the talk of Chance Warmack being the next Larry Allen, Fisher gets overlooked by Bills fans. He may be the best tackle in the draft.

Think about this.... The Bills seeming let Levitre go without even attempting to resign him. Maybe their plan all along was to kick Cordy Glenn inside then put a guy like Fisher at his tackle spot. I guess your question comes from the fact that the Bills haven't really spoken about this player. Did they speak alot about Spiller? (I can't recall, but I don't think they did).

[mjt328]

He's a stud. For all the talk of Chance Warmack being the next Larry Allen, Fisher gets overlooked by Bills fans. He may be the best tackle in the draft.

Think about this.... The Bills seeming let Levitre go without even attempting to resign him. Maybe their plan all along was to kick Cordy Glenn inside then put a guy like Fisher at his tackle spot. I guess your question comes from the fact that the Bills haven't really spoken about this player. Did they speak alot about Spiller? (I can't recall, but I don't think they did).

I agree with you about his talent. There are a lot of people pegging him as the best overall player in the draft. I think he is going #4 overall to Philly. If he slides, I wouldn't mind taking him.

But my point is, Buffalo hasn't shown the slightest interest in any offensive tackles this offseason. They haven't attended pro days for any tackle prospects, haven't invited any for visits and haven't mentioned the position even once as a need over the last 4 months.

A lot of people think Cordy Glenn would be better suited as a guard. Our staff has gone out of its way to say otherwise. Nix and Whaley practically laughed at the rest of the league last year at the suggestion he should be playing inside.

Not to mention, they recently drafted Chris Hairston and Zebrie Sanders - and extended Erik Pears. In that taped phone conversation, Nix said "we are good at tackle" and I think he means it.

Spiller was not mentioned by name much before the 2010 draft, but Nix and Gailey both made statements about adding a fast "waterbug" type running back. Quite a few people put 2+2 together and realized we were targeting Spiller, at least a month before the draft.

[Captain Obvious]

Well Nix has blood in his hands for the last 3 years and I believe he was an advisor to the team for a draft before that.
For someone who criticizes others for there math yours is atrocious.. By your calculations Nix has been here for 4 years and Brandon has been a executive with authority for 6 years so to go back 13 years is one heck of a stretch

[OpIv37]

For someone who criticizes others for there math yours is atrocious.. By your calculations Nix has been here for 4 years and Brandon has been a executive with authority for 6 years so to go back 13 years is one heck of a stretch

Some of you are getting a little nit-picky about a joke.... like it or not, this team has been terrible at drafting for the last 13 years and the guys in charge from Nix on up have been responsible for at least the last 4 years of it.

[mjt328]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Vacarro will be the pick.

I think the top 7 will go something like this:
1) KC - Joekel
2) Jax - Geno
3) Oak - Floyd
4) Phil - Fisher
5) Det - Ansah
6) Clev - Milliner
7) AZ - Johnson

That would leave us with a choice between Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree and Vacarro.
Jordan and Jones are considered OLBs in the 3-4. Although I believe they would be the best options in this scenario, Nix might not see them filling as big of a need.

In the 3-4, our line would look something like Dareus, Branch, K.Williams.
That means the top outside linebackers would be Mario Williams and Manny Lawson, with Mark Anderson as a 3rd down specialist.

[swiper]

Not to mention, they recently drafted Chris Hairston and Zebrie Sanders - and extended Erik Pears. In that taped phone conversation, Nix said "we are good at tackle" ....


I hadn't heard the bold part. Thanks for that.

I had mentioned in another thread about Vacarro that if they took him at #8 it would be because they felt he was clearly the BPA on the board. I'd be fine with that explanation despite the fact they have bigger needs.

[swiper]

2) Jax - Geno


While anything is possible, Jax has come out and said that Gabbert is their guy for 2013. Plus some other draft experts have said that if Gabbert were to come out in this draft class that he would head-and-shoulders be the first QB off the board. So I don't see that, esp coupled with the fact Jax has some other glaring holes to fill.

[mjt328]

I hadn't heard the bold part. Thanks for that.

I had mentioned in another thread about Vacarro that if they took him at #8 it would be because they felt he was clearly the BPA on the board. I'd be fine with that explanation despite the fact they have bigger needs.

Yeah. When they were talking about guys on the trade block, Dominik mentioned one of Tampa Bay's offensive tackles. Nix basically said he wasn't interested and said the Bills were good at tackle.

I'm not sure what I think about Vacarro. Unlike most other positions, it's really hard to determine how a safety is playing by sitting at my computer and watching game footage. I do know that I really like the potential of Dion Jordan. And Jarvis Jones seems like the best pass rusher available.

I guess I'm OK with the idea of taking a safety... as long as it doesn't mean we are comfortable letting Byrd walk after the season. We need him signed to a longterm contract ASAP.

[Oaf]

So Bills are either going QB in round 1 or round 2. Ok

/troll

[mjt328]

Add LSU OLB Barkevious Mingo as another possible target in Round 1. Apparently he was brought in for a visit on April 8.

Personally, I don't like Mingo at all. I watched 3 or 4 games. He seems to get through on a speed rush 2-3 times per game. The rest of the time he gets completely stonewalled, if not completely taken out of the play. If we are going for an undersized pass rusher, I greatly prefer Jarvis Jones.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

I wish they had done that. They are so incompetent that they would have done better by random chance than they did by actually trying.

What actually makes you think they're trying? Someone that's trying would actually have successive drafts of 3 to 5 long term starters. We have had 1 or 2 a year for the past several drafts.

[swiper]

Gibby, Gibby, Gibby....

[gonzo1105]

The Bills are going with Vaccaro so be prepared. He's a great fit for Pettines system and Balt and the NYJ have always had great Safeties. The Bills loved Barron last year and that was with George Wilson on the roster. Now Wilson is gone, Searcy was a pick of the previous regime, my eyes are fixated to the selection of him. Barron would be a Bill if he was available last year.

[TigerJ]

The complete list of pre-draft visits is now out. http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2013/04/12/bills-pre-draft-visit-list-up-to-11/ They include 9 QBs, 5 safeties, 7 LBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, and 1FB/Hback. Some in that group might end up being UDFAs rather than draft picks, but unless the Bills have completely changed how they use these pre-draft visits, the core of their draft strategy is going to center around those positions. Positions not represented by pre-draft visits are offensive linemen, running backs, defensive linemen, and cornerbacks. This doesn't mean Buffalo can't select a player at one of those positions, but I don't think it is nearly as likely as for those positions that the Bills are apparently focussing on.

[mjt328]

Looks like Patterson was one of the final visits. Maybe he is in the running at #8 after all.