QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

[X-Era]

There will be a lot of intrigue about the QB's and where they go. I'll be shocked if the Bills haven't drafted a QB before the 3rd round. I'll be mildly surprised if they haven't drafted one before their slotted pick in the 2nd.

I think the Bills are serious about a few QB prospects. It's all just conjecture on my part. But, I think:

1. They like Tyler Wilson, and Tyler Bray. These are the sort of guys they would take if they fall in rounds 2 or 3.
2. They really like Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. These guys are ones they may go after (more on that below)
3. The guy they may prefer over all the rest is Nassib even though they think other QB prospects rank higher right now. This is simply a situation where he can run their new offense, familiarity with the coaches, and his quicker learning curve may mean quicker success. He's such a known quantity to the Bills that they may consider the safest choice from the standpoint that they will know what they are getting. The Bills may see more upside in Geno or Barkley but the risk factor is higher since they don't know them as well as they know Nassib. That may play a real part in their decision making.

Then the intrigue will be in how the draft unfolds and what the Bills do.

1. If the Bills end up with pick of the litter at 8 I think they will take one at 8 (Smith, Barkley, or Nassib). The interesting part would be who they went with. Like the Orakpo, Maybin draft most everyone thought Orakpo was the better DE (he was). But the Bills went with Maybin. Could the Bills do that here and take Nassib over Smith and Barkley for example?
2. If they end up with only the top guy gone (Smith) I could see them still take one at 8 or if they think the #2 QB on their list is a guy that the Jets don't want (probably Nassib) they could trade down. Let's say Smith goes before 8 and the Bills like Nassib better than Barkley. If they think the Jets will take Barkley they can move down and still get Nassib.
3. If 2 QB's (Smith and Barkley) get taken before 8 the Bills may take the 3rd guy at 8 (Nassib) for fear that the Jets would take him if they try to trade down and that he won't be there in the 2nd.
4. If they don't take a QB at 8 they may very well try to move back up into the 1st round due to the contract being for 5 years. They run the risk of a run on QB's starting and ending up with only the 5-7th best guy by their pick in the 2nd. A move to the top of the 2nd is also possible where they would leap frog the other QB needy teams who didn't get one in round 1. It could be that no one jumps into late round 1 for Nassib and the Bills move to the top of round 2 to ensure that they get him.
5. The Bills go with another position in round 1 and then take a QB at their 2nd rounder. In this case they may be thinking that they will just take Tyler Wilson in round 2 or wait until the 3rd and take Tyler Bray.

If I had to guess I would say that Nassib will be our QB. But how it will unfold will be interesting. Take him at 8? Move down for him? Move up for him? I think it will be one of those moves. Frankly, I don't see him still being there by our 2nd round pick and I think the Bills don't either.

[X-Era]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

BTW, Gruden thinks Nassib may be the sleeper in this draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9159612/2013-nfl-draft-jon-gruden-breaks-ryan-nassib-sleeper-status

[Night Train]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

Why don't we just cover ourselves and draft

1. Smith
2. Nassib
3. Manuel
4. Bray
5. Scott
6. Tuel

[k-oneputt]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

I'll take option #5.

[sukie]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

BTW, Gruden thinks Nassib may be the sleeper in this draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft...sleeper-status

Meh, Gruden thought Cam Newton was a strong arm attatched to a hot mess so.....

[The Jokeman]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

There will be a lot of intrigue about the QB's and where they go. I'll be shocked if the Bills haven't drafted a QB before the 3rd round. I'll be mildly surprised if they haven't drafted one before their slotted pick in the 2nd.

I think the Bills are serious about a few QB prospects. It's all just conjecture on my part. But, I think:

1. They like Tyler Wilson, and Tyler Bray. These are the sort of guys they would take if they fall in rounds 2 or 3.
2. They really like Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. These guys are ones they may go after (more on that below)
3. The guy they may prefer over all the rest is Nassib even though they think other QB prospects rank higher right now. This is simply a situation where he can run their new offense, familiarity with the coaches, and his quicker learning curve may mean quicker success. He's such a known quantity to the Bills that they may consider the safest choice from the standpoint that they will know what they are getting. The Bills may see more upside in Geno or Barkley but the risk factor is higher since they don't know them as well as they know Nassib. That may play a real part in their decision making.

Then the intrigue will be in how the draft unfolds and what the Bills do.

1. If the Bills end up with pick of the litter at 8 I think they will take one at 8 (Smith, Barkley, or Nassib). The interesting part would be who they went with. Like the Orakpo, Maybin draft most everyone thought Orakpo was the better DE (he was). But the Bills went with Maybin. Could the Bills do that here and take Nassib over Smith and Barkley for example?
2. If they end up with only the top guy gone (Smith) I could see them still take one at 8 or if they think the #2 QB on their list is a guy that the Jets don't want (probably Nassib) they could trade down. Let's say Smith goes before 8 and the Bills like Nassib better than Barkley. If they think the Jets will take Barkley they can move down and still get Nassib.
3. If 2 QB's (Smith and Barkley) get taken before 8 the Bills may take the 3rd guy at 8 (Nassib) for fear that the Jets would take him if they try to trade down and that he won't be there in the 2nd.
4. If they don't take a QB at 8 they may very well try to move back up into the 1st round due to the contract being for 5 years. They run the risk of a run on QB's starting and ending up with only the 5-7th best guy by their pick in the 2nd. A move to the top of the 2nd is also possible where they would leap frog the other QB needy teams who didn't get one in round 1. It could be that no one jumps into late round 1 for Nassib and the Bills move to the top of round 2 to ensure that they get him.
5. The Bills go with another position in round 1 and then take a QB at their 2nd rounder. In this case they may be thinking that they will just take Tyler Wilson in round 2 or wait until the 3rd and take Tyler Bray.

If I had to guess I would say that Nassib will be our QB. But how it will unfold will be interesting. Take him at 8? Move down for him? Move up for him? I think it will be one of those moves. Frankly, I don't see him still being there by our 2nd round pick and I think the Bills don't either.

It depends on how much value you put in Nassib versus every other possible player combination of X and Y and Z. As one pick ultimately effects all others. Personally Nassib talent doesn't warrant the 8th overall pick IMHO. So I trade down and acquire him later than sooner ie don't reach for him. Also it's never wise to target one specific guy in the draft unless you own the first overall pick. I not fantasy football not exactly the same but last year I was determined to take a RB with my first overall pick but the one's I were targetting so instead of reaching I ended up with getting Calvin Johnson and then took Marshawn Lynch in round 2 and ended up winning my league for the first time ever.

[better days]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

The Bills have a lot of flexability in this draft with the signing of T Jax & Kolb. They can draft a QB with a higher ceiling that may need time to develop rather than focusing on a QB most ready to start from the getgo.

The Jets are reported to be VERY interested in Nassib & if they don't take him at #9, I think they take him in the 2nd rnd ahead of the Bills pick. I doubt the Jets draft Barkley after his TERRIBLE pro day. NJ has just as bad of weather as Buffalo & Barkley will handle it no better than Sanchez. If the Bills LIKE Nassib, I think they need to draft him somewhere in the 1st rnd.

[X-Era]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/24/bills-fear-jets-will-take-ryan-nassib/

It's playing itself out.

The Bills are realizing that they can't afford to wait until round two and still get their guy for sure. And now that the Jets have yet another 1st rounder, the need to take their guy at 8 is even more evident (from the Bills perspective).

[Bill Cody]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

It's playing itself out.

speculation

[X-Era]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

speculation

True. It is speculation at this point.

[X-Era]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

Here's the key comment from Nix:

“I think there is,” he said. “This quarterback class is better than everybody thinks it is. There’s about five or six of those guys, maybe seven, that do a lot of things good and do them good enough to win. I said this from the start that two or three of these guys will be franchise quarterbacks.”

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Bills-poised-to-add-offense/a3bff0e0-478a-433c-8ae7-5e6418f3dc0f

So there it is. Two or three guys that he sees as franchise quarterbacks and then a total 5-7 guys that have a chance to be good NFL quarterbacks.

This is tiers.

The franchise quarterback types (two or three) are potentially worthy of the #8 overall and then the rest are 2nd rounders or later.

And then the intrigue comes in as to which are available at our pick. But if Nix feels there are two or three guys that are franchise quarterbacks and any of them drop to us at 8, I think the Bills will be taking one.

[clumping platelets]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

And maybe the Bills are trying to get the Jets to move up..................just say no to QB at #8. Build up the offense and give Kolb or TJax every nopportunity to be successful. Regardless of who the QB is, will we not need weapons and good OL? This is why Warmack at #8 is a great choice and then go WR/TE in 2nd rd.....if Barkley falls to #41, take him but any of these QB's at #8 is a reach

[X-Era]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

And maybe the Bills are trying to get the Jets to move up..................just say no to QB at #8. Build up the offense and give Kolb or TJax every nopportunity to be successful. Regardless of who the QB is, will we not need weapons and good OL? This is why Warmack at #8 is a great choice and then go WR/TE in 2nd rd.....if Barkley falls to #41, take him but any of these QB's at #8 is a reach

I know what you're saying and I understand why. But the Bills want a quarterback from this draft and think that as many as three guys are franchise quarterbacks. If they think that way, 8th overall would be worth it to them.

That said, if they see a clear path to move down and still get one of their guys I think they would do it. But looking at the board... Jets with 2 firsts and a 2nd rounder above us plus quarterback needy teams ahead of us in the 2nd... waiting until the 2nd round almost ensures they won't get one of the two or three that they think are franchise guys. And I just can't see them doing that.

But my bigger point is this:

If we take a quarterback who ends up being a flop it was a reach whether it was at 8 or in any round.
If we take a quarterback at 8 and it ends up being a franchise guy it wasn't a reach.

If we get a guy that's our franchise quarterback for the next 5 years do we really care that we took him 33 picks too early according to pre-draft rankings?

[kishoph]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

And maybe the Bills are trying to get the Jets to move up..................just say no to QB at #8. Build up the offense and give Kolb or TJax every nopportunity to be successful. Regardless of who the QB is, will we not need weapons and good OL? This is why Warmack at #8 is a great choice and then go WR/TE in 2nd rd.....if Barkley falls to #41, take him but any of these QB's at #8 is a reach

In the last 13 years, I'm pretty sure not once did I think, if he had a great guard we would of made the playoffs, it's time to take a QB with the 1st pick.

[X-Era]

Re: QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

In the last 13 years, I'm pretty sure not once did I think, if he had a great guard we would of made the playoffs, it's time to take a QB with the 1st pick.

Nice.

A bit snarky, but very poignant.

It's a decent point. Landing a playoff caliber quarterback trumps landing a playoff caliber anything else (unless you already have the quarterback).

The flip side though is none of these guys are Luck. So the ceiling may not be high enough either.