QB intrigue for the Bills on draft day V2.0

[X-Era]

There will be a lot of intrigue about the QB's and where they go. I'll be shocked if the Bills haven't drafted a QB before the 3rd round. I'll be mildly surprised if they haven't drafted one before their slotted pick in the 2nd.

I think the Bills are serious about a few QB prospects. It's all just conjecture on my part. But, I think:


They like Tyler Wilson, and Tyler Bray. These are the sort of guys they would take if they fall in rounds 2 or 3.
They really like Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. These guys are ones they may go after (more on that below)
The guy they may prefer over all the rest is Nassib even though they think other QB prospects rank higher right now. This is simply a situation where he can run their new offense, familiarity with the coaches, and his quicker learning curve may mean quicker success. He's such a known quantity to the Bills that they may consider the safest choice from the standpoint that they will know what they are getting. The Bills may see more upside in Geno or Barkley but the risk factor is higher since they don't know them as well as they know Nassib. That may play a real part in their decision making.


Then the intrigue will be in how the draft unfolds and what the Bills do.



If the Bills end up with pick of the litter at 8 I think they will take one at 8 (Smith, Barkley, or Nassib). The interesting part would be who they went with. Like the Orakpo, Maybin draft most everyone thought Orakpo was the better DE (he was). But the Bills went with Maybin. Could the Bills do that here and take Nassib over Smith and Barkley for example?
If they end up with only the top guy gone (Smith) I could see them still take one at 8 or if they think the #2 QB on their list is a guy that the Jets don't want (probably Nassib) they could trade down. Let's say Smith goes before 8 and the Bills like Nassib better than Barkley. If they think the Jets will take Barkley they can move down and still get Nassib.
If 2 QB's (Smith and Barkley) get taken before 8 the Bills may take the 3rd guy at 8 (Nassib) for fear that the Jets would take him if they try to trade down and that he won't be there in the 2nd.
If they don't take a QB at 8 they may very well try to move back up into the 1st round due to the contract being for 5 years. They run the risk of a run on QB's starting and ending up with only the 5-7th best guy by their pick in the 2nd. A move to the top of the 2nd is also possible where they would leap frog the other QB needy teams who didn't get one in round 1. It could be that no one jumps into late round 1 for Nassib and the Bills move to the top of round 2 to ensure that they get him.
The Bills go with another position in round 1 and then take a QB at their 2nd rounder. In this case they may be thinking that they will just take Tyler Wilson in round 2 or wait until the 3rd and take Tyler Bray.


If I had to guess I would say that Nassib will be our QB. But how it will unfold will be interesting. Take him at 8? Move down for him? Move up for him? I think it will be one of those moves. Frankly, I don't see him still being there by our 2nd round pick and I think the Bills don't either.

[X-Era]

BTW, Gruden thinks Nassib may be the sleeper in this draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9159612/2013-nfl-draft-jon-gruden-breaks-ryan-nassib-sleeper-status

[Night Train]

Why don't we just cover ourselves and draft

1. Smith
2. Nassib
3. Manuel
4. Bray
5. Scott
6. Tuel

:bravo:

[k-oneputt]

I'll take option #5.

[sukie]

BTW, Gruden thinks Nassib may be the sleeper in this draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9159612/2013-nfl-draft-jon-gruden-breaks-ryan-nassib-sleeper-status

Meh, Gruden thought Cam Newton was a strong arm attatched to a hot mess so.....

[The Jokeman]

There will be a lot of intrigue about the QB's and where they go. I'll be shocked if the Bills haven't drafted a QB before the 3rd round. I'll be mildly surprised if they haven't drafted one before their slotted pick in the 2nd.

I think the Bills are serious about a few QB prospects. It's all just conjecture on my part. But, I think:


They like Tyler Wilson, and Tyler Bray. These are the sort of guys they would take if they fall in rounds 2 or 3.
They really like Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. These guys are ones they may go after (more on that below)
The guy they may prefer over all the rest is Nassib even though they think other QB prospects rank higher right now. This is simply a situation where he can run their new offense, familiarity with the coaches, and his quicker learning curve may mean quicker success. He's such a known quantity to the Bills that they may consider the safest choice from the standpoint that they will know what they are getting. The Bills may see more upside in Geno or Barkley but the risk factor is higher since they don't know them as well as they know Nassib. That may play a real part in their decision making.


Then the intrigue will be in how the draft unfolds and what the Bills do.



If the Bills end up with pick of the litter at 8 I think they will take one at 8 (Smith, Barkley, or Nassib). The interesting part would be who they went with. Like the Orakpo, Maybin draft most everyone thought Orakpo was the better DE (he was). But the Bills went with Maybin. Could the Bills do that here and take Nassib over Smith and Barkley for example?
If they end up with only the top guy gone (Smith) I could see them still take one at 8 or if they think the #2 QB on their list is a guy that the Jets don't want (probably Nassib) they could trade down. Let's say Smith goes before 8 and the Bills like Nassib better than Barkley. If they think the Jets will take Barkley they can move down and still get Nassib.
If 2 QB's (Smith and Barkley) get taken before 8 the Bills may take the 3rd guy at 8 (Nassib) for fear that the Jets would take him if they try to trade down and that he won't be there in the 2nd.
If they don't take a QB at 8 they may very well try to move back up into the 1st round due to the contract being for 5 years. They run the risk of a run on QB's starting and ending up with only the 5-7th best guy by their pick in the 2nd. A move to the top of the 2nd is also possible where they would leap frog the other QB needy teams who didn't get one in round 1. It could be that no one jumps into late round 1 for Nassib and the Bills move to the top of round 2 to ensure that they get him.
The Bills go with another position in round 1 and then take a QB at their 2nd rounder. In this case they may be thinking that they will just take Tyler Wilson in round 2 or wait until the 3rd and take Tyler Bray.


If I had to guess I would say that Nassib will be our QB. But how it will unfold will be interesting. Take him at 8? Move down for him? Move up for him? I think it will be one of those moves. Frankly, I don't see him still being there by our 2nd round pick and I think the Bills don't either.

It depends on how much value you put in Nassib versus every other possible player combination of X and Y and Z. As one pick ultimately effects all others. Personally Nassib talent doesn't warrant the 8th overall pick IMHO. So I trade down and acquire him later than sooner ie don't reach for him. Also it's never wise to target one specific guy in the draft unless you own the first overall pick. I not fantasy football not exactly the same but last year I was determined to take a RB with my first overall pick but the one's I were targetting so instead of reaching I ended up with getting Calvin Johnson and then took Marshawn Lynch in round 2 and ended up winning my league for the first time ever.

[better days]

The Bills have a lot of flexability in this draft with the signing of T Jax & Kolb. They can draft a QB with a higher ceiling that may need time to develop rather than focusing on a QB most ready to start from the getgo.

The Jets are reported to be VERY interested in Nassib & if they don't take him at #9, I think they take him in the 2nd rnd ahead of the Bills pick. I doubt the Jets draft Barkley after his TERRIBLE pro day. NJ has just as bad of weather as Buffalo & Barkley will handle it no better than Sanchez. If the Bills LIKE Nassib, I think they need to draft him somewhere in the 1st rnd.

[X-Era]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/24/bills-fear-jets-will-take-ryan-nassib/

It's playing itself out.

The Bills are realizing that they can't afford to wait until round two and still get their guy for sure. And now that the Jets have yet another 1st rounder, the need to take their guy at 8 is even more evident (from the Bills perspective).

[Bill Cody]

It's playing itself out.



speculation

[X-Era]

speculationTrue. It is speculation at this point.

[X-Era]

Here's the key comment from Nix:

“I think there is,” he said. “This quarterback class is better than everybody thinks it is. There’s about five or six of those guys, maybe seven, that do a lot of things good and do them good enough to win. I said this from the start that two or three of these guys will be franchise quarterbacks.”

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Bills-poised-to-add-offense/a3bff0e0-478a-433c-8ae7-5e6418f3dc0f

So there it is. Two or three guys that he sees as franchise quarterbacks and then a total 5-7 guys that have a chance to be good NFL quarterbacks.

This is tiers.

The franchise quarterback types (two or three) are potentially worthy of the #8 overall and then the rest are 2nd rounders or later.

And then the intrigue comes in as to which are available at our pick. But if Nix feels there are two or three guys that are franchise quarterbacks and any of them drop to us at 8, I think the Bills will be taking one.

[clumping platelets]

And maybe the Bills are trying to get the Jets to move up..................just say no to QB at #8. Build up the offense and give Kolb or TJax every nopportunity to be successful. Regardless of who the QB is, will we not need weapons and good OL? This is why Warmack at #8 is a great choice and then go WR/TE in 2nd rd.....if Barkley falls to #41, take him but any of these QB's at #8 is a reach

[X-Era]

And maybe the Bills are trying to get the Jets to move up..................just say no to QB at #8. Build up the offense and give Kolb or TJax every nopportunity to be successful. Regardless of who the QB is, will we not need weapons and good OL? This is why Warmack at #8 is a great choice and then go WR/TE in 2nd rd.....if Barkley falls to #41, take him but any of these QB's at #8 is a reach
I know what you're saying and I understand why. But the Bills want a quarterback from this draft and think that as many as three guys are franchise quarterbacks. If they think that way, 8th overall would be worth it to them.

That said, if they see a clear path to move down and still get one of their guys I think they would do it. But looking at the board... Jets with 2 firsts and a 2nd rounder above us plus quarterback needy teams ahead of us in the 2nd... waiting until the 2nd round almost ensures they won't get one of the two or three that they think are franchise guys. And I just can't see them doing that.

But my bigger point is this:

If we take a quarterback who ends up being a flop it was a reach whether it was at 8 or in any round.
If we take a quarterback at 8 and it ends up being a franchise guy it wasn't a reach.

If we get a guy that's our franchise quarterback for the next 5 years do we really care that we took him 33 picks too early according to pre-draft rankings?

[kishoph]

And maybe the Bills are trying to get the Jets to move up..................just say no to QB at #8. Build up the offense and give Kolb or TJax every nopportunity to be successful. Regardless of who the QB is, will we not need weapons and good OL? This is why Warmack at #8 is a great choice and then go WR/TE in 2nd rd.....if Barkley falls to #41, take him but any of these QB's at #8 is a reach

In the last 13 years, I'm pretty sure not once did I think, if he had a great guard we would of made the playoffs, it's time to take a QB with the 1st pick.

[X-Era]

In the last 13 years, I'm pretty sure not once did I think, if he had a great guard we would of made the playoffs, it's time to take a QB with the 1st pick.Nice.

A bit snarky, but very poignant.

It's a decent point. Landing a playoff caliber quarterback trumps landing a playoff caliber anything else (unless you already have the quarterback).

The flip side though is none of these guys are Luck. So the ceiling may not be high enough either.

[wozrob11]

The bills have to take Nassib in this draft some where because i preordered my #11 nassib jersey so hopefully i didnt waste my money or did I......... dam it

[Don't Panic]

speculation

exactly. And here's the thing... I'm not so sure 5-7 teams feel like there's a QB worth taking in the first 40 picks. In fact, I'd be surprised if there's more than 3 who take one. Remember, these are teams with a lot of needs and almost every one of them have a better QB situation than the Bills do.

The ballsy move for the Bills here is to grab a stud at a position of need at #8 (especially if Geno is gone), refuse to trade up, and then take the best of what's left at #41. All the guys worth a 2nd gone? Wait for the 3rd.

[X-Era]

exactly. And here's the thing... I'm not so sure 5-7 teams feel like there's a QB worth taking in the first 40 picks. In fact, I'd be surprised if there's more than 3 who take one. Remember, these are teams with a lot of needs and almost every one of them have a better QB situation than the Bills do.

The ballsy move for the Bills here is to grab a stud at a position of need at #8 (especially if Geno is gone), refuse to trade up, and then take the best of what's left at #41. All the guys worth a 2nd gone? Wait for the 3rd.

If 3 go before their 2nd rounder, we lost out on a guy we considered a franchise QB.

And we can still get one at 41 but it will not be one of the top 2 or 3 it will be a guy out of the pool of 5-7 that look like they have a chance to be a good NFL QB.

I think banking on QB needy teams to ignore these QB's and let one of our top 2 or 3 fall to us at 41 is just not going to happen. It's a QB driven league.

[clumping platelets]

We have had "QB's of the future" but not the OL or weapons to make him successful....also, why couldn't Kolb be that QB we need long term.....he's not over the hill

[Novacane]

In the last 13 years, I'm pretty sure not once did I think, if he had a great guard we would of made the playoffs, it's time to take a QB with the 1st pick.


I'm not sure if it's time to take a QB with our first pick but I'm positive it's not the right time to take a guard!

[clumping platelets]

I'm not sure if it's time to take a QB with our first pick but I'm positive it's not the right time to take a guard!

Then take a WR or Eifert

[jamze132]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/24/bills-fear-jets-will-take-ryan-nassib/

It's playing itself out.

The Bills are realizing that they can't afford to wait until round two and still get their guy for sure. And now that the Jets have yet another 1st rounder, the need to take their guy at 8 is even more evident (from the Bills perspective).

Who cares what another team says or may do?

People alwasy lose perspective this time of year when balancing need Vs want. Yes we need a QB in the worst way but just because we NEED one doesn't mean we need to drop a top 10 pick on one in a draft when just about EVERY draft expert and scout says that none of them are worthy of being drafted that high. It would be irresponsible for us to draft a QB at #8 UNLESS two of them are drafted ahead of us, which is highly unlikely.

We'll be able to get a good QB project in RD2, no need to take a QB project in RD1 when we do have two veterans on the roster who can hold down a sub .500 football team for a year or so.

[better days]

Who cares what another team says or may do?

People alwasy lose perspective this time of year when balancing need Vs want. Yes we need a QB in the worst way but just because we NEED one doesn't mean we need to drop a top 10 pick on one in a draft when just about EVERY draft expert and scout says that none of them are worthy of being drafted that high. It would be irresponsible for us to draft a QB at #8 UNLESS two of them are drafted ahead of us, which is highly unlikely.

We'll be able to get a good QB project in RD2, no need to take a QB project in RD1 when we do have two veterans on the roster who can hold down a sub .500 football team for a year or so.

If the Bills can trade down, I think they could get one of the two or three franchise QBs Nix has targeted, but I doubt any of them will be there at #41 & with only 6 picks I would hate the idea of trading back up for one.

[X-Era]

Who cares what another team says or may do?

People alwasy lose perspective this time of year when balancing need Vs want. Yes we need a QB in the worst way but just because we NEED one doesn't mean we need to drop a top 10 pick on one in a draft when just about EVERY draft expert and scout says that none of them are worthy of being drafted that high. It would be irresponsible for us to draft a QB at #8 UNLESS two of them are drafted ahead of us, which is highly unlikely.

We'll be able to get a good QB project in RD2, no need to take a QB project in RD1 when we do have two veterans on the roster who can hold down a sub .500 football team for a year or so.


This is where I totally disagree.

You seem to want the Bills to operate in a vacuum and by their own system when every other team out there operates differently. Quarterbacks are over-drafted every single year. Every year. It's because it's a quarterback driven league. Russell Wilson was over-drafted IMO he was a 5th round pick. As was Kaep, as was Ponder, and Locker. Teams over-draft quarterbacks. That's the way it is. And if you need one and want a guy you think is a franchise QB, you have to play by THOSE rules. Not your own.

I'd love for us to draft a QB when it's the BPA on our board out of any player at that pick. But that rarely happens because the rest of the league over-drafts them.

I don't like it either but that's the way it is.

And to test the theory, tell me that these guys will all be drafted tonight where they belong. Tell me that Smith will be drafted in the late 1st, Barkley and Nassib in the 2nd, and so on. Let's see if that's how that actually goes. Because if it doesn't it proves the Bills have no choice but to over-draft a QB if they want one.

Really I can only think of one exception. And that's when you have a guy like Luck and RG3 who both are considered sure-fire. Then they go 1 and 2 or 3 and are not over-drafted.

[X-Era]

And here's Nix saying just that:

Knowing Buffalo is in the market to add a long term answer at quarterback in the draft Buffalobills.com asked Nix if he feels confident that two or three of the quarterback prospects he believes could be franchise caliber will be there.
“It’d be strictly a guess, but I would say they’ll be there at eight, but if you want to question whether they’ll be there in the second round that’s a different thing.”
Nix said waiting until round two for a quarterback would be “scary.”
With respect to moving down the board and still getting a quarterback they like, the Bills general manager admits it’s a risk. How far is too far is something he and his staff will need to gauge carefully.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that there will be a difference maker at number eight,” said Nix. “The decision you have to make is will the guy you want be there at 12, 15, 17 whatever it is and that’s the great unknown. We’ll make the call, and hopefully it’ll be right."

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Nix-Were-getting-more-phone-calls-than-usual/da20fab7-36db-4ca8-a77f-de0e123ef7ba

Interesting that he skipped 16 (Rams who supposedly would be interested in moving up for Austin).

If the trade down happens I think it would be because he thinks the Jets will take one of the 3 they like and they can still trade one or either of the other two.

What I do like is what it may mean for rounds 2 or 3. I like guys like Brain Winters, Vance McDonald, Robert Woods or Justin Hunter. We would only be able to get 2 of those guys right now and this could let us get 3 instead.

2-1) Robert Woods
2-2) Vance McDonald
3) Brian Winters

Just one example.

[Don't Panic]

If 3 go before their 2nd rounder, we lost out on a guy we considered a franchise QB.

And we can still get one at 41 but it will not be one of the top 2 or 3 it will be a guy out of the pool of 5-7 that look like they have a chance to be a good NFL QB.

I think banking on QB needy teams to ignore these QB's and let one of our top 2 or 3 fall to us at 41 is just not going to happen. It's a QB driven league.

Parity and personal preference have been the hallmarks of this QB class. I think three could be gone and only two would be in the group that we considered to be franchise QBs. Don't get me wrong, its a gamble. I just think its one worth taking.

[PTI]

Charlie Casserly has the Bills trading back into round 1 with the Patriots and taking the 1st QB of the draft, Mike Glennon.

Wow, that is crazy stuff. Might tell myself I would not be a Bills fan after 42 years of my life if they did that......................

[stuckincincy]

Charlie Casserly has the Bills trading back into round 1 with the Patriots and taking the 1st QB of the draft, Mike Glennon.

Wow, that is crazy stuff. Might tell myself I would not be a Bills fan after 42 years of my life if they did that......................

Casserly exists to cash his paycheck. IMO.

[X-Era]

Charlie Casserly has the Bills trading back into round 1 with the Patriots and taking the 1st QB of the draft, Mike Glennon.

Wow, that is crazy stuff. Might tell myself I would not be a Bills fan after 42 years of my life if they did that......................He's the one I want the LEAST.

[Albany,n.y.]

BTW, Gruden thinks Nassib may be the sleeper in this draft:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9159612/2013-nfl-draft-jon-gruden-breaks-ryan-nassib-sleeper-status
Buddy Nix IS the sleeper in this draft. I hope someone wakes him up when it's time to take a QB.

[kishoph]

Nice.

A bit snarky, but very poignant.


Ha Ha, "snarky", I never really mean to be rude to any other poster and I apologize if I ever am, but the thought of drafting a guard with the 8th pick strikes a nerve. I want a QB, but I'll be alright (not really happy) with almost any other position, except a guard or maybe a 5'9" WR, as long as they get a QB with the next pick.

[cookie G]

Speculation runs wild with Bills, Geno Smith and 2013 NFL draft QB class[

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--speculation-runs-wild-with-bills--geno-smith-and-2013-nfl-draft-qb-class-180918217.html

While the 2013 NFL draft will be defined by the success of men who protect and chase quarterbacks, there remains a huge question over where the top half-dozen passers will go.
No team defines that quandary more than the Buffalo Bills, who multiple NFL sources continued to disagree about in the hours leading up to the draft. Five NFL team executives gave varying answers on who the quarterback-desperate Bills will select.

"Trade down to right spot for [Geno] Smith," one exec wrote via text message.
"They want [Ryan] Nassib," another said.
"Hearing [Matt] Barkley in Buffalo," another exec said.
That exchange of messages defined the confusion over what is clearly the most compelling position in the NFL. Yet for all the need, few executives have a clear handle on where they will be taken.
"It's all over the map," Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik said Monday. "You hear teams talk about trading back or up for certain guys, especially trading back because I think pretty much everybody agrees that the top 10 is a stretch this year.
"But that's dangerous. You can end up getting cute with it and not get the guy you want. Sometimes it's just best to take the guy you like when you can and not worry about it."

[vanbillsfan]

Charlie Casserly has the Bills trading back into round 1 with the Patriots and taking the 1st QB of the draft, Mike Glennon.

Wow, that is crazy stuff. Might tell myself I would not be a Bills fan after 42 years of my life if they did that......................

Charlie Casserly was also the one who said after Gailey was fired that the Bills made a mistake.

[fluteflakes]

I swear to ****ing Oden if the Bills draft Ryan ****ing Nassib at #8, ESPECIALLY if Geno Smith is still ****ing there....

DON'T **** THIS UP BUDDY.