NFL Draft Musings/Rumors v2.0

[DraftBoy]

Did this before people seemed to like it, may just do another update tomorrow as I hear more things. One advantage to announcing this is the last draft you're covering people are willing to tell you more. I like it, but on to the rumors:

-Chiefs will take Luke Joeckel at #1 unless they can't trade Branden Albert then they will take Eric Fisher-LaCanfora
-Dion Jordan was the assumed pick at #4 for the Eagles but last minute word is it may be Kiki Mingo instead-LaCanfora
-Three OT's will go in the first three picks-Multiple
-Geno Smith will not be the first QB off the board-Multiple
-Fluker to the Cardinals at 7-SBNation
-Falcons are calling every team in Top 15 to see what the price is to get up and get a CB or pass rusher-Multiple
-Hopkins to St. Louis in Mid Round 1 is what everybody is assumin-Pauline
-Austin to the Jets at 9, that one is about as set in stone as you can get if he makes it there-Pauline
-Tank Carradine (DE-FSU) would be a Top 5 pick if healthy (maybe #1 overall) but even with his shredded knee he's still going Round 1-Pauline
-Cowboys are high on UNC DT Sylvester Williams-Pauline
-Dee Milliner is off a few teams draft boards for medical, he's had 5 surgeries so far-Pauline
-Kent State OT/OG Brian Winters is getting some late 1st love but it may be all smoke-LaCanfora
-Pats are hot and heavy for Marcus Lattimore on Day 3-Bernstein
-Tyler Eifert didn't take a single pre-draft visit but he still will probably go Top 15-Multiple

Musings:
-If the Bills take Nassib 8 (and every indication is that they will) he and Marrone will have only 1-2 years to show positive growth, Spiller isn't getting younger and RB lives are shortening. If Bills struggle in 2013 and are in a position to take a QB like Bridgewater at the top of 2014 they may do it. Marrone putting all his eggs into the SU basket is a massive risk.
-We released our final Top 100 yesterday, its a bit different then anybody elses because we didn't update it since before all the all-star, combine, and pro day workouts. The Top 100 is based purely off what we saw. It's been entered into the THR Top 100 Contest which measures accuracy, we expect to finish near the bottom because our board is based off projection and not predicting who goes where. For those interested here is the link: http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2013/04/thr-final-top-100/
-In "covering" the last decade or so of drafts this is by far the most in depth and unpredictable draft I've ever seen
-I'm expecting a ton of trades on Thursday and plenty more on Friday and Saturday
-The UDFA market is going to be intense, that's where the majority of the value lies because of how deep with talent this class is. You could find 3-4 roster spot players there easily
-If Dion Jordan falls to 8 he's the Bills pick, QB be damned

That's all I got for now, Ill update through tomorrow as I hear more.

[swiper]

Nassib at #8 is just a depressing thought. When he turns out to be Trent Lospatrick in 3 years, then Marrone will join the likes of Gregg Williams, Mularkey, Jauron, and Gailey. Then you'll all again be calling for a head coach with NFL head coaching experience. And Lovey Smith will be somewhere smiling because he avoided Buffalo.

Certain years it's fairly easy to project the top 10. Not this year.

[stuckincincy]

-If Dion Jordan falls to 8 he's the Bills pick, QB be damned



Indeed...

[Night Train]

-Austin to the Jets at 9, that one is about as set in stone as you can get if he makes it there-Pauline


Then I would tend to believe our phone may ring, with a team or 2 wanting to jump ahead of the Jets. Personally, I would never draft an offensive player in the 165-180lb. range, since I see a short career for Austin after one good hit and a long stint on the IR. The Roscoe pick was bad enough but it wasn't in the top 10.

Nassib at #8 ? The 3 LT's ,the 2 Guards ( Cooper,Warmack) and TE Eifert are miles ahead of this guy in actual talent and if any of them are passed over, I wouldn't be thrilled. If Jordan fell to #8, you run to the podium. Ansah, Jones & Mingo all have huge question marks and may be Maybinesque in makeup.

[malvado78]

Trent Lospatrick

LOL

[don137]

If the Rams love Austin and they want to jump over the Jets trading down to #16 and getting an extra second rounder would be nice. I have to feel the Bills could get their franchise QB (Barkley or Nassib) at 16.

[swiper]

I could live with Barkley at #16.

[don137]

BTW, great job pulling all this together Draftboy.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Drafting Nassib is not dumb if they believe he can be something down the road, like Kapernick. The point is whether they can be SMART in the sense that they get more than Nassib iwth the 8th pick of the draft. That's a skill. With Nix, I'm more or less comfortable in talent evaluation; I just don't know if he has the GM skill to make the most from the resources he is given. Tom Donahoe is the last GM the Bills had in terms of having that skill.

[swiper]

Tom Donahoe? The guy that traded away a first to move up to get JP Losman? You like his GM skills?

:lol:

[THRILLHO]

Trent Lospatrick

Awesome. I am going to steal this.

[The King]

I agree that Nassib makes things too tough on Marrone I have been saying this for a month.

[T-Long]

This was great stuff DB, thanks for this.

As far as Nassib at 8, I would be pretty surprised even though it does make a lot of sense for him to be able to start from Day 1. I would much rather have Barkley or EJ Manuel, but I honestly couldn't blame the Bills if they went Nassib. Look at Tannehill in Miami last year, it seemed to work out pretty well for him in year 1.

I cannot wait for this weekend.

[clumping platelets]

Just say no to QB at #8

[DraftBoy]

Drafting Nassib is not dumb if they believe he can be something down the road, like Kapernick. The point is whether they can be SMART in the sense that they get more than Nassib iwth the 8th pick of the draft. That's a skill. With Nix, I'm more or less comfortable in talent evaluation; I just don't know if he has the GM skill to make the most from the resources he is given. Tom Donahoe is the last GM the Bills had in terms of having that skill.

Believing in him is one thing, risking your job by putting all your eggs into one basket is an entirely different. There is a reason very few college coaches who go pro take their QB with them.

[DraftBoy]

BREAKING (kinda): Jets are heavily interested in Nassib at 9 or 14, and may force the Bills to stick at 8 and take him if they want him - Sal Palontonio

Earlier this morning Schefter reported Bills were one of four teams actively looking for a trade down

If the ****ing Jets force the Bills to turn down extra picks out of fear of losing Ryan friggin Nassib I'm going to pretty pissed.

[Bone]

Marrone is putting his entire staffs job on the line if Nassib is the pick.

[DraftBoy]

Then there is this from Adam Caplan;
https://twitter.com/caplannfl/status/326890237173321731


No, trade up from 2nd, as I noted months ago. No way at 8. RT @EricSoda: @caplannfl Do you think #Bills really end up taking Nassib at 8?

[jamze132]

Bills ain't draftin' no QB at #8.

[jamze132]

BREAKING (kinda): Jets are heavily interested in Nassib at 9 or 14, and may force the Bills to stick at 8 and take him if they want him - Sal Palontonio

Earlier this morning Schefter reported Bills were one of four teams actively looking for a trade down

If the ****ing Jets force the Bills to turn down extra picks out of fear of losing Ryan friggin Nassib I'm going to pretty pissed.

If the Jets want Nassib at 9 or 14, let them have him. I'll gladly just take the best QB available in RD2.

[Bone]

Chris brown has E.J Manuel at 8 for the Bills.

[jamze132]

Chris brown has E.J Manuel at 8 for the Bills.

And if we do that, we are ****ing ******ed. Him and a bunch of other QBs who all grade out similar will all be available in RD2.

[don137]

BREAKING (kinda): Jets are heavily interested in Nassib at 9 or 14, and may force the Bills to stick at 8 and take him if they want him - Sal Palontonio

Earlier this morning Schefter reported Bills were one of four teams actively looking for a trade down

If the ****ing Jets force the Bills to turn down extra picks out of fear of losing Ryan friggin Nassib I'm going to pretty pissed.

I wonder if the Jets are playing poker with the Bills. The Jets like Austin and so do many other teams. It could be a bluff by the Jets to prevent the Bills from trading down. Personally, I could see the Jets going Austin at #9 and taking Geno Smith at # 13 reuniting the duo (assuming Smith is not taken).

If Smith is not taken when the Bills are up I say call the bluff and trade down. I think the Jets would take Smith over Nassib.

[JoeMama]

Did this before people seemed to like it, may just do another update tomorrow as I hear more things. One advantage to announcing this is the last draft you're covering people are willing to tell you more. I like it, but on to the rumors:

-Chiefs will take Luke Joeckel at #1 unless they can't trade Branden Albert then they will take Eric Fisher-LaCanfora
-Dion Jordan was the assumed pick at #4 for the Eagles but last minute word is it may be Kiki Mingo instead-LaCanfora
-Three OT's will go in the first three picks-Multiple
-Geno Smith will not be the first QB off the board-Multiple
-Fluker to the Cardinals at 7-SBNation
-Falcons are calling every team in Top 15 to see what the price is to get up and get a CB or pass rusher-Multiple
-Hopkins to St. Louis in Mid Round 1 is what everybody is assumin-Pauline
-Austin to the Jets at 9, that one is about as set in stone as you can get if he makes it there-Pauline
-Tank Carradine (DE-FSU) would be a Top 5 pick if healthy (maybe #1 overall) but even with his shredded knee he's still going Round 1-Pauline
-Cowboys are high on UNC DT Sylvester Williams-Pauline
-Dee Milliner is off a few teams draft boards for medical, he's had 5 surgeries so far-Pauline
-Kent State OT/OG Brian Winters is getting some late 1st love but it may be all smoke-LaCanfora
-Pats are hot and heavy for Marcus Lattimore on Day 3-Bernstein
-Tyler Eifert didn't take a single pre-draft visit but he still will probably go Top 15-Multiple

Musings:
-If the Bills take Nassib 8 (and every indication is that they will) he and Marrone will have only 1-2 years to show positive growth, Spiller isn't getting younger and RB lives are shortening. If Bills struggle in 2013 and are in a position to take a QB like Bridgewater at the top of 2014 they may do it. Marrone putting all his eggs into the SU basket is a massive risk.
-We released our final Top 100 yesterday, its a bit different then anybody elses because we didn't update it since before all the all-star, combine, and pro day workouts. The Top 100 is based purely off what we saw. It's been entered into the THR Top 100 Contest which measures accuracy, we expect to finish near the bottom because our board is based off projection and not predicting who goes where. For those interested here is the link: http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2013/04/thr-final-top-100/
-In "covering" the last decade or so of drafts this is by far the most in depth and unpredictable draft I've ever seen
-I'm expecting a ton of trades on Thursday and plenty more on Friday and Saturday
-The UDFA market is going to be intense, that's where the majority of the value lies because of how deep with talent this class is. You could find 3-4 roster spot players there easily
-If Dion Jordan falls to 8 he's the Bills pick, QB be damned

That's all I got for now, Ill update through tomorrow as I hear more.

+1

You have an appropriate handle. Good stuff.

[Bone]

I'm really warming up to Tavon Austin if its not nassib... Spiller and Austin :drool2:

[justasportsfan]

drafting a qb at 8 will depend on what Marrone thinks of how Kolb/Tjax did at the team workouts. I guess that applies to the wr as well (TJ Graham)

[cookie G]

-Geno Smith's already consigned himself to falling on Thurs.

From his Twitter yesterday:

Just want to thank all those so called "experts" who say I can't be an NFL QB. Thursday will be a special day but the work has only begun

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000162661/article/geno-smith-slams-so-called-draft-experts-on-twitter

He can sulk or he can use it as a Thurman-like, Aaron Rodgers-like chip on his shoulder. We'll see.

[cookie G]

-If the Bills take Nassib 8 (and every indication is that they will) he and Marrone will have only 1-2 years to show positive growth, Spiller isn't getting younger and RB lives are shortening. If Bills struggle in 2013 and are in a position to take a QB like Bridgewater at the top of 2014 they may do it. Marrone putting all his eggs into the SU basket is a massive risk.

It should be like that...but it won't. If it happens, Russ Brandon hit the Orangeman trifecta. And he's not going to change it until new ownership is in place, and he is shown the door.

[Mr. Pink]

If the Falcons have contacted us with an offer of their 1st this year, a 2nd or 3rd this year and their first next year we'd be outright foolish not to jump all over it.

[Buddo]

If the Jets want Nassib at 9 or 14, let them have him. I'll gladly just take the best QB available in RD2.

I wouldn't.
Not so bothered about the Bills not taking a QB at 8, providing they can swing a trade down, but I feel that they really do have to take one once they have traded down. For all the knocking of this QB class, they actually start to make sense from a 'value' pov around the top of the 2nd round, and there are too many teams ahead of us who could take one to develop, for me to think that having the leftovers, will do us any favors at all.
If there are at least a couple of guys they like, then they need to take one of them ahead of any sort of scramble, and I don't think that trading back up into the 1st round, when we only have 6 picks, if we use the #8 on any other player, is a viable option.
Bills best option, really, is to trade back and get another 2nd rounder. That way, they could still trade back up into the 1st round, getting a player they want, while still keeping 6 picks in total.

[Mahdi]

Chris brown has E.J Manuel at 8 for the Bills.

Does Chris Brown know who our coach is and what kind of offense they run?

Chris Brown needs a Bills insider on his staff.

[superbills]

Ugh...I can't stop reading draft rumors, prognostications, mocks...I have a very unhealthy love affair with the NFL draft :trance:

[NOT THE DUDE...]

BREAKING (kinda): Jets are heavily interested in Nassib at 9 or 14, and may force the Bills to stick at 8 and take him if they want him - Sal Palontonio

Earlier this morning Schefter reported Bills were one of four teams actively looking for a trade down

If the ****ing Jets force the Bills to turn down extra picks out of fear of losing Ryan friggin Nassib I'm going to pretty pissed.


a ruse so the jets can get tavon or mingo

[justasportsfan]

all these rumors going around mean squat unless it's Paladdin Warrior approved.

[Mahdi]

I wonder if the Jets are playing poker with the Bills. The Jets like Austin and so do many other teams. It could be a bluff by the Jets to prevent the Bills from trading down. Personally, I could see the Jets going Austin at #9 and taking Geno Smith at # 13 reuniting the duo (assuming Smith is not taken).

If Smith is not taken when the Bills are up I say call the bluff and trade down. I think the Jets would take Smith over Nassib.

If anything the Jets are trying to force the Bills to take a QB at 8 rather than take a player they want with their first rounders.

[coastal]

Chris brown has E.J Manuel at 8 for the Bills.
I'd be down with that.

[Mr. Miyagi]

I don't think Marrone is dumb enough to take Nassib at #8. In fact I say no way in hell he does.

Even if Nassib falls to us in the 2nd round, depending on what other QB is on the board at that time, I wouldn't bet money he'll be the pick either.

[swiper]

Then there is this from Adam Caplan;
https://twitter.com/caplannfl/status/326890237173321731

GOD NO! The Losman mistake all over again. Or McCargo. Whatever.

[The Jokeman]

Did this before people seemed to like it, may just do another update tomorrow as I hear more things. One advantage to announcing this is the last draft you're covering people are willing to tell you more. I like it, but on to the rumors:
-Falcons are calling every team in Top 15 to see what the price is to get up and get a CB or pass rusher-Multiple
-If Dion Jordan falls to 8 he's the Bills pick, QB be damned

That's all I got for now, Ill update through tomorrow as I hear more.

I would love for the Falcons to make an offer like they did to Cleveland in 2011 for pick #6 that netted them Julius Jones, which would give us Atlanta's first (#30), second (60th) and fourth-rounder (127th) and also Atlanta's first- and fourth-round selections in 2014. As then at pick #30 I'd take Nassib or Manuel or Barkley (one is bound to fall), use pick #41 on a WR like Allen (who's been sliding) or DeAndre Hopkins/Terrence Williams and pick 60 on an OG like Kyle Long.

Dion Jordan is on my wish list over anyone else in this draft but think he'll be gone before pick 8 but who knows if all this OT speculation is true he might somehow slip to us.

[DraftBoy]

Ian Rapoport says Bills targeting Matt Barkley in ROUND 2.

[Novacane]

Ian Rapoport says Bills targeting Matt Barkley in ROUND 2.


Because he's saying the Jags will take Nassib at 33 if he's there.

[Don't Panic]

Awesome. I am going to steal this.

Instant classic...

[IlluminatusUIUC]

-Geno Smith's already consigned himself to falling on Thurs.

From his Twitter yesterday:

Just want to thank all those so called "experts" who say I can't be an NFL QB. Thursday will be a special day but the work has only begun

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000162661/article/geno-smith-slams-so-called-draft-experts-on-twitter

He can sulk or he can use it as a Thurman-like, Aaron Rodgers-like chip on his shoulder. We'll see.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wFiiy5mBF34/UV3Z9pGUCsI/AAAAAAAACoQ/ZwMtxgcXlT8/s1600/FB_AlbumCover_SEA_RWILSON.jpg

[swiper]

Instant classic...


I'm copyrighting it!

Trent Lospatrick http://sandeepdmisra.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/copyright_symbol_small_sq.jpg

[swiper]

Ian Rapoport says Bills targeting Matt Barkley in ROUND 2.

If the Bills got Dion Jordan and then Matt Barkley I think a lot of Bills fans would be very happy.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

If the Bills got Dion Jordan and then Matt Barkley I think a lot of Bills fans would be very happy.

man, that would be nice...

[T-Long]

Not sure if this was posted yet...but Albert Breer is saying it could be Barkley at 8 b/c of the reasons we have mentioned before (not a lot of picks and unwillingness to trade 2014 picks)

http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/0ap2000000163074/Is-Matt-Barkley-Buffalo-bound

[BillsU]

If the Bills got Dion Jordan and then Matt Barkley I think a lot of Bills fans would be very happy. That would be a perfect scenario which is why I doubt it would happen. :(

[TigerJ]

Pauline says the Bills actually like Manuel at #8.

[fluteflakes]

Ian Rapoport says Bills targeting Matt Barkley in ROUND 2.

That right there is the SMART move, and should be a HUGE tell of the quality of this draft class.

[psubills62]

So DB, this is the last draft you're covering? What does that mean - giving up the site, giving up the analysis altogether?

[DraftBoy]

So DB, this is the last draft you're covering? What does that mean - giving up the site, giving up the analysis altogether?

Yes and yes.

Full time job has decided to promote me so I had a big decision to make and I made it. The site is being handed over to somebody who will do more with it then I ever could. After 12 or 13 years straight of doing it, it ends on Sunday.

[psubills62]

Yes and yes.

Full time job has decided to promote me so I had a big decision to make and I made it. The site is being handed over to somebody who will do more with it then I ever could. After 12 or 13 years straight of doing it, it ends on Sunday.
Congrats, and best of luck to you.

[DraftBoy]

Congrats, and best of luck to you.

Thank you sir, I'll still be around on here and on Twitter. I'm not going away I just can't dedicate time like I used to it and that makes it unfair for me or the people who like reading my stuff.

[DraftBoy]

Pauline says the Bills actually like Manuel at #8.

I think he was more saying that they prefer Manuel to Nassib, but not necessarily at 8.

[bigbub2352]

congrats db your effort was appreciated

[Mad Max]

I don't know what would be worse, actually drafting Ryan Nassib in the 1st (I don't want him in any round personally) or being punk'd into drafting him that early by the jesters.

[jdbillsfan]

I don't know what would be worse, actually drafting Ryan Nassib in the 1st (I don't want him in any round personally) or being punk'd into drafting him that early by the jesters.

Both result in getting Nassib.

[fluteflakes]

Both result in getting Nassib.

One just involves losing our pride on top of it.

[Mr. Pink]

If we end up with Nassib at QB I will be forced to not watch this franchise til 2015 when he will be shown the door.

I won't even post either.

Nassib will just how much of a hole this franchise is in and how sad Marrone will end up being in charge.

I have my reservations about the guy as it is but if it's him reuniting more of his SU buddies it'll seal the deal.

[fluteflakes]

If we end up with Nassib at QB I will be forced to not watch this franchise til 2015 when he will be shown the door.

I won't even post either.

Nassib will just how much of a hole this franchise is in and how sad Marrone will end up being in charge.

I have my reservations about the guy as it is but if it's him reuniting more of his SU buddies it'll seal the deal.

Imagine how pissed you'll be if some of these reports are right and we take Pugh in the second (Vastly over drafting him IMO) and Alec Lemon in the later rounds. Hell we need a safety too, lets grab Shamarko Thomas while we're at it!

Complete the regionalization. Make us the Buffalo Orange, move to Toronto in 7 years, and make me finally give the hell up so I can actually root for a team with hope and success.

[kingJofNYC]

They can't panic tomorrow, I'm afraid they will. Buddy's been terrible after the 1st round. They've almost been too patient when it comes to the QB position, probably changes tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, or the QB they take, if they take one, pans out. Can't take much more of this ****.

[bosshogg21]

They can't panic tomorrow, I'm afraid they will. Buddy's been terrible after the 1st round. They've almost been too patient when it comes to the QB position, probably changes tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, or the QB they take, if they take one, pans out. Can't take much more of this ****.

Buddy's been terrible with the first round?? That's the only round he's nailed with spiller, Dareus and Gilmore.

[kingJofNYC]

Buddy's been terrible with the first round?? That's the only round he's nailed with spiller, Dareus and Gilmore.

I said he was awful after the first, so I guess there's hope for tomorrow, or maybe his streak ends.

[X-Era]

They can't panic tomorrow, I'm afraid they will. Buddy's been terrible after the 1st round. They've almost been too patient when it comes to the QB position, probably changes tomorrow. I hope I'm wrong, or the QB they take, if they take one, pans out. Can't take much more of this ****.They have been. And they have missed out on multiple playoff quarterbacks.