We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

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  • justasportsfan
    Registered User
    • Jul 2002
    • 71601

    We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

    Woods .

    The rest are "I am smarter than the rest of the NFL" picks.

    With Nassib and Barkley dropping beyond the 3rd round, no one really knows if EJ would've been on Jets', Philly's or Tampa's radar.

    Ballsy draft so far.
    sacrifice1
    https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/
  • kingJofNYC
    Registered User
    • Sep 2009
    • 5960

    #2
    Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

    Don't think that's the case with Kiko, he can be a player in this league, but given the guy who was on the board (A.Brown), yeah it's a bit of a wtf. Also has some off field issues, and who was the last guy they drafted with those kinds of concerns? Can't recall a single one under Nix.

    Bills have drafted poorly for years, but this is the first time in a long time they've gone for home runs or strikeouts, nothing in between. Go for broke instead of drafting complete wtf players from no name schools.

    It's only our first and third rounders that are true hit or miss guys, but your first rounder should never carry that much risk. They should be starting caliber players at worst if you intend to compete in this league.

    Comment

    • DraftBoy
      Administrator
      • Jul 2002
      • 107442

      #3
      Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

      Im not a huge fan of many of the picks but I admire the style they are displaying. At least it shows some life.
      COMING SOON...
      Originally posted by Dr.Lecter
      We were both drunk and Hillary did not look that bad at 2 AM, I swear!!!!!!

      Comment

      • Lexwhat
        Registered User
        • Feb 2005
        • 2926

        #4
        Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

        I posted this in another thread, but probably fits better here:


        ...Don't people realize that after ~3 years, only about 25% of 3rd rounders are even legitimate starters in this league? Hell, go back to the last couple drafts and take a look at all the 3rd round picks that were taken. Beyond the 2nd round, the draft is an utter crap shoot.

        An overall good draft would be finding 1 star player and 3 solid starters, regardless of what round they are found in.

        2 star players and 2 solid starters is a downright amazing draft, and this is the rate of success that teams like the 49ers and Seahawks have shown over the past few years.

        If I was a GM, I would go for BPA (and throw needs completely out the window) after Round 2. Round 3 and beyond is all about boom-or-bust, since the success rate of finding a starter after Round 2 exponentially decreases from 25%.

        Comment

        • kingJofNYC
          Registered User
          • Sep 2009
          • 5960

          #5
          Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

          Originally posted by Lexwhat View Post
          I posted this in another thread, but probably fits better here:


          ...Don't people realize that after ~3 years, only about 25% of 3rd rounders are even legitimate starters in this league? Hell, go back to the last couple drafts and take a look at all the 3rd round picks that were taken. Beyond the 2nd round, the draft is an utter crap shoot.

          An overall good draft would be finding 1 star player and 3 solid starters, regardless of what round they are found in.

          2 star players and 2 solid starters is a downright amazing draft, and this is the rate of success that teams like the 49ers and Seahawks have shown over the past few years.

          If I was a GM, I would go for BPA (and throw needs completely out the window) after Round 2. Round 3 and beyond is all about boom-or-bust, since the success rate of finding a starter after Round 2 exponentially decreases from 25%.
          Spot on, we took a big risk in the first though.

          Don't mind it. A lot depends on the coaches, have to develop these guys. Wonder what they do tomorrow, some solid talent on the board that could help this team. Glad we're at 8 in the 4th.

          Comment

          • justasportsfan
            Registered User
            • Jul 2002
            • 71601

            #6
            Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

            Woods was the only BPA at the time we picked . The rest were potentially high ceiling if they pan out. Like DB stated, high risk ,high reward. Hackett better know what he's doing .
            sacrifice1
            https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

            Comment

            • Night Train
              Retired - On Several Levels
              • Jul 2005
              • 33117

              #7
              Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

              Safe picks have served us well the last 13 years. Never change.
              Anonymity is an abused privilege, abused most by people who mistake vitriol for wisdom and cynicism for wit

              Comment

              • NOT THE DUDE...
                Hall of Fame Zoner
                • Jan 2010
                • 8826

                #8
                Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                the goodwin pick is safe dude, fastest guy in draft and hes a football player first, and we got him in the 3rd. nm, just wait until the preseason at least...

                you probably think goodwin is soft lol

                Comment

                • justasportsfan
                  Registered User
                  • Jul 2002
                  • 71601

                  #9
                  Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                  Originally posted by NOT THE DUDE... View Post
                  the goodwin pick is safe dude, fastest guy in draft and hes a football player first, and we got him in the 3rd. nm, just wait until the preseason at least...

                  you probably think goodwin is soft lol
                  his nos. don't justify his being drafted in the 3rd. but I can see how he can hit a homerun with his speed. Even TJ Graham had better nos out of college.
                  sacrifice1
                  https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

                  Comment

                  • Lexwhat
                    Registered User
                    • Feb 2005
                    • 2926

                    #10
                    Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                    Originally posted by kingJofNYC View Post
                    Spot on, we took a big risk in the first though.

                    Don't mind it. A lot depends on the coaches, have to develop these guys. Wonder what they do tomorrow, some solid talent on the board that could help this team. Glad we're at 8 in the 4th.

                    Originally posted by justasportsfan View Post
                    Woods was the only BPA at the time we picked . The rest were potentially high ceiling if they pan out. Like DB stated, high risk ,high reward. Hackett better know what he's doing .
                    IMO, I think the term "high risk / high reward" is thrown around too much. The only time that phrase applies is to the 1st, and maybe the 2nd round... When the success rate of the 3rd round and beyond is only ~25%, there's no such thing as "high risk." Everything is low risk.

                    Ultimately, our draft will be tied to Manuel. If he's the answer for us at QB and has the ability to take us to the super bowl, it is impossible for it to be a bad draft. And if ANY player from round 2-7 turns out to be a star too, we have had a great draft. Just give me 2 more solid (legitimate) starters and we literally can't ask for anything more.

                    If Manuel turns out to be a bust, it will be much more difficult to salvage this draft.

                    Comment

                    • justasportsfan
                      Registered User
                      • Jul 2002
                      • 71601

                      #11
                      Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                      Originally posted by Lexwhat View Post
                      IMO, I think the term "high risk / high reward" is thrown around too much. The only time that phrase applies is to the 1st, and maybe the 2nd round... When the success rate of the 3rd round and beyond is only ~25%, there's no such thing as "high risk." Everything is low risk.

                      .
                      I agree.

                      The players drafted so far even EJ wreaks PLAYMAKERS.
                      sacrifice1
                      https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

                      Comment

                      • YardRat
                        Well, lookie here...
                        • Dec 2004
                        • 86291

                        #12
                        Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                        Ballsy or stupid...we'll find out.
                        YardRat Wall of Fame
                        #56 DARRYL TALLEY
                        #29 DERRICK BURROUGHS#22 FRED JACKSON #95 KYLE WILLIAMS

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                        • Buddo
                          Registered User
                          • Mar 2007
                          • 1864

                          #13
                          Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                          Originally posted by justasportsfan View Post
                          I agree.

                          The players drafted so far even EJ wreaks PLAYMAKERS.
                          Agreed. I've just posted elsewhere, that I think the LBer was a guy they had targeted, due to his coverage ability. We might eventually have a guy who can cover a TE occasionally.

                          Comment

                          • justasportsfan
                            Registered User
                            • Jul 2002
                            • 71601

                            #14
                            Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                            Originally posted by Buddo View Post
                            Agreed. I've just posted elsewhere, that I think the LBer was a guy they had targeted, due to his coverage ability. We might eventually have a guy who can cover a TE occasionally.
                            he should be able to put a whop-whop on Hernandez and send Gronk back dancing at the clubs
                            sacrifice1
                            https://theinterviewwithgod.com/video/

                            Comment

                            • Pinkerton Security
                              Pinkerton's son
                              • Feb 2006
                              • 6003

                              #15
                              Re: We've had only one safe pick (arguably)

                              Originally posted by justasportsfan View Post
                              his nos. don't justify his being drafted in the 3rd. but I can see how he can hit a homerun with his speed. Even TJ Graham had better nos out of college.
                              you cant teach speed, so in the 3rd round I'm fine with taking a guy who is faster than nearly anyone else on the field.

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