Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

[MidnightVoice]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...esnt-exist-yet

When Russ Brandon was named Buffalo Bills president in January, he announced that the team would be implementing a "robust" analytics department to boost football operations. Four months later, Brandon acknowledged the program does not yet exist.

Perhaps more telling, Brandon tacitly acknowledged that sabermetrics won't play the same major role in football as it has throughout the "Moneyball" era of baseball.

Brandon has experience in that area -- he worked under Florida Marlins general manager Dave Dombrowski before joining the Bills in 1997. That experience taught Brandon that the scouting department should be complemented by analytics as opposed to being undercut.....

It's interesting that Brandon specifically cited salary-cap management, as longtime NFL general manager Bill Polian insists that "'Moneyball' does not work in the NFL because there are very few undervalued players and no middle class because of our salary cap."

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks currently boast two of the NFL's strongest rosters. That's no coincidence. Those two bold, unconventional franchises realize that no player is more undervalued in today's NFL than a premium quarterback on a rookie contract.

[Night Train]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

I'm more than willing to work for low 6 figures and help Brandon set it up.

I like my kegerator to be on the south wall across from my desk.

[OpIv37]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

I'm more than willing to work for low 6 figures and help Brandon set it up.

I like my kegerator to be on the south wall across from my desk.

Kegerator? Based on how bad this FO has performed, I'm guessing whatever they drink in the office is much stronger than beer.

[DraftBoy]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

Kegerator? Based on how bad this FO has performed, I'm guessing whatever they drink in the office is much stronger than beer.

The kegerator is across the office, the minifridge with chilled bottles is still located to the right side under the desk.

[Guest]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

You bought that there ever would be one?

Brandon threw that out at that press conference to make it look like there was progressive change at OBD.

Nix can't even spell it.

[jimmifli]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...esnt-exist-yet

When Russ Brandon was named Buffalo Bills president in January, he announced that the team would be implementing a "robust" analytics department to boost football operations. Four months later, Brandon acknowledged the program does not yet exist.

Perhaps more telling, Brandon tacitly acknowledged that sabermetrics won't play the same major role in football as it has throughout the "Moneyball" era of baseball.

Brandon has experience in that area -- he worked under Florida Marlins general manager Dave Dombrowski before joining the Bills in 1997. That experience taught Brandon that the scouting department should be complemented by analytics as opposed to being undercut.....

It's interesting that Brandon specifically cited salary-cap management, as longtime NFL general manager Bill Polian insists that "'Moneyball' does not work in the NFL because there are very few undervalued players and no middle class because of our salary cap."

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks currently boast two of the NFL's strongest rosters. That's no coincidence. Those two bold, unconventional franchises realize that no player is more undervalued in today's NFL than a premium quarterback on a rookie contract.

It's almost like nothing has changed.

[coastal]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

Lolz.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

I think it was obvious that it hadn't been established when we drafted Gragg, a kicker, and Goodwin. None of those guys would pass muster on any kind of sabermetric analysis. They may turn out to be good picks, but they aren't moneyball picks.

[Historian]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

Nix can't even spell it.

[trapezeus]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

i kind of assumed this when mckelvin got $4MM a year and levitre was sent packing. it smacks of ******ia, the land from which ralph and russ hail. if a model spit out that kind of decision, then the model is completely broken.

[feldspar]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

Somebody explain to what exactly what this moneyball thing is...what exactly would the analytics department do?

[trapezeus]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

it would save the bills a ton of money by quantifying all the things that go into a good player. therefore instead of having buddy nix and scouts say, "hey i have a feeling on this guy." you have the hard numbers to show you why a certain guy will be good. and why he is undervalued.

oh and you don't have to send scouts to all these towns, you rely on the model to cut the list down for you, then you interview the select few and make good decisions.

what makes it impossible in football is that its a 11 on 11 game, so variables are huge. So you could have the model weight it towards tackles and a handful of other factors and then a bad lb who makes tackles but is dragged down the field (POZ), isn't really noted. it'd still be up to scouts to look at the intangibles, but from a limited crop. and obviously the hope is that the model you create looks at factors that are highly correlated to success but lesser known. Perhaps its not the TD's that a QB throws, but how often he throws TD's inside 2 minutes.

BAseball works, because its a one on one sport for the most part. how a guy deals with a pitcher comes out in the stats. in football, you have fitz that have respectible numbers to a degree but can't win you a game when you need it.

So i respect the idea of crunching data, but i think it's pretty unrealistic that you can do this alone and in a vaccuum. it's probably worth developing to add on to what a scout feels. but it's a bad idea to be the way you find your players. but the buffalo bills haven't found too many players the last 13 years doing it the old way, so it's hard to believe they could be worse.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

Somebody explain to what exactly what this moneyball thing is...what exactly would the analytics department do?

Basically it's about trying to find undervalued players. For a simplistic example, assume you ran a 4-3 when 9/10ths of the league ran a 3-4. You'd be looking for guys who could excel in your 4-3 but not the 3-4, because all the other teams would pass over them and you'd be able to get them on the cheap. Perfect examples of this are Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. The Seahawks decided they wanted big corners at a time when most of the league didn't and so they found Browner and Sherman in the CFL and 5th round, and sent both to the Pro Bowl.

[coastal]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

Somebody explain to what exactly what this moneyball thing is...what exactly would the analytics department do?

Russ Brandon is gay for Brad Pitt movies.

what else do you want to know?

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Bills' analytics department doesn't exist yet

If they need a good stats guy to run this damn thing, I know of one.