Albert Breer, spoke to reps from two NFL teams that had Manuel graded higher

[justasportsfan]

Don't know if this is true but if so then it's hard to know if EJ would've still been there at 31 or later.


The Manuel call wasn't such a shocker: The truth about the 2013 quarterback class is that its uniqueness was in the divergent opinions it inspired. I spoke with two clubs that had EJ Manuel ranked ahead of Geno Smith -- one had Smith graded as a low third-round pick -- and another two that had them virtually even, with one feeling that Manuel had a higher ceiling and the other giving low second-round grades to both (slotting Matt Barkley ahead of them).

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap1000000167678/article/draft-notes-ej-manuel-over-geno-smith-not-that-surprising

[gebobs]

Wow! Two!

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Right, but how many of those teams picked between us and 41?

[THRILLHO]

Honestly, I'm really not worried about it. We traded down once, which was awesome and not something we'd normally do. We got the QB we wanted and there is nothing to say he would or would not have been there a bit later. No point in saying he would or would not have been. No one knew before we picked him, and no one knows now.

[Meathead]

Right, but how many of those teams picked between us and 41?

because nobody ever trades back into the bottom of the first to take a qb

[swiper]

Right, but how many of those teams picked between us and 41?

But how many of those teams needed a QB that bad? Answer: Not that many. So who cares? He would have been there at 41. He's not that good a QB. Period. Outside of the Bills, Jets, and perhaps the Cardinals every team had addressed their QB needs. You people act like every team needed a QB and that EJ Manuel was Andrew Luck.

[DraftBoy]

Right, but how many of those teams picked between us and 41?

Good question, but also important to ask how or where they ranked Manuel. We know they had Geno in the 2nd-3rd Round range. Does that mean they had Manuel in the 1st-2nd? And building on the second part of the statement did they even rank Manuel #1 or did they just have him over Smith but they were ranked 3 and 4?

Breer's information while intriguing leaves a lot of open questions. What's done is done however and now its time for everybody to root for EJ.

[Goobylal]

Hindsight is wonderful. But the Bills played it smart. All it takes is for one team to move back into the bottom of the first and take him.

[ThunderGun]

Right, but how many of those teams picked between us and 41?

Oh my god, who cares? The point is that some teams had him valued as early 2nd round picks. Some may have had him graded higher...we'll never know. And it DOESN'T MATTER if those teams picked between 16 and 41, because Buddy Nix never would have been able to find that out. Hindsight is 20/20. The point is, if EJ is the guy they wanted, they were better off taking him at 16, than waiting around and hoping he would still be there later. Even if the teams that supposedly wanted him picked after 41, they certainly could have traded up, and most likely would have, if they saw us sitting at 41, and assumed that we would be taking one of the QB's.

Everybody needs to stop whining about the fact that we took him at 16. If he isn't the QB you wanted...that's one thing. I'm ok with him, because I think he has the highest upside, but I get the argument. But arguing that we took him too early is just asinine. There is no guarantee that the guy you want will be there at your next pick. If you are sure that you want him, and he is the highest rated player on your board, you take him when you have the chance to.

I just came across an old article from 2009, calling the Jairus Byrd pick a reach. Here is what they said:

Jairus Byrd/CB/Buffalo/2nd Round: Byrd ran pedestrian times in the 4.6 range during his pro-day workout. He's a solid prospect , but there were at least a half dozen higher-rated cornerbacks available to the Bills when they selected him at the top of Round 2.

So a bunch of pundits said that some other DB's were rated higher than Byrd...we must have reached. But obviously, we saw something we liked, and felt that he was worth the pick. Should we have traded down, or hoped that he would still be there for us in the next round?

[DraftBoy]

Oh my god, who cares? The point is that some teams had him valued as early 2nd round picks. Some may have had him graded higher...we'll never know. And it DOESN'T MATTER if those teams picked between 16 and 41, because Buddy Nix never would have been able to find that out. Hindsight is 20/20. The point is, if EJ is the guy they wanted, they were better off taking him at 16, than waiting around and hoping he would still be there later. Even if the teams that supposedly wanted him picked after 41, they certainly could have traded up, and most likely would have, if they saw us sitting at 41, and assumed that we would be taking one of the QB's.

Everybody needs to stop whining about the fact that we took him at 16. If he isn't the QB you wanted...that's one thing. I'm ok with him, because I think he has the highest upside, but I get the argument. But arguing that we took him too early is just asinine. There is no guarantee that the guy you want will be there at your next pick. If you are sure that you want him, and he is the highest rated player on your board, you take him when you have the chance to.

I just came across an old article from 2009, calling the Jairus Byrd pick a reach. Here is what they said:

Jairus Byrd/CB/Buffalo/2nd Round: Byrd ran pedestrian times in the 4.6 range during his pro-day workout. He's a solid prospect , but there were at least a half dozen higher-rated cornerbacks available to the Bills when they selected him at the top of Round 2.

So a bunch of pundits said that some other DB's were rated higher than Byrd...we must have reached. But obviously, we saw something we liked, and felt that he was worth the pick. Should we have traded down, or hoped that he would still be there for us in the next round?

You're misquoting an awful large part of the bolded. Nowhere does it mention DB's, it mentions CB's. Many people thought Byrd should of been a CB coming out and his ranking was reflective of that. The Bills thought of him as a SAF, but he was not ranked as a SAF by whatever source you pulled the bolded from so trying to infer something off of that is a bit misleading.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Oh my god, who cares? The point is that some teams had him valued as early 2nd round picks. Some may have had him graded higher...we'll never know. And it DOESN'T MATTER if those teams picked between 16 and 41, because Buddy Nix never would have been able to find that out. Hindsight is 20/20. The point is, if EJ is the guy they wanted, they were better off taking him at 16, than waiting around and hoping he would still be there later. Even if the teams that supposedly wanted him picked after 41, they certainly could have traded up, and most likely would have, if they saw us sitting at 41, and assumed that we would be taking one of the QB's.

Everybody needs to stop whining about the fact that we took him at 16. If he isn't the QB you wanted...that's one thing. I'm ok with him, because I think he has the highest upside, but I get the argument. But arguing that we took him too early is just asinine. There is no guarantee that the guy you want will be there at your next pick. If you are sure that you want him, and he is the highest rated player on your board, you take him when you have the chance to.

I just came across an old article from 2009, calling the Jairus Byrd pick a reach. Here is what they said:

Jairus Byrd/CB/Buffalo/2nd Round: Byrd ran pedestrian times in the 4.6 range during his pro-day workout. He's a solid prospect , but there were at least a half dozen higher-rated cornerbacks available to the Bills when they selected him at the top of Round 2.

So a bunch of pundits said that some other DB's were rated higher than Byrd...we must have reached. But obviously, we saw something we liked, and felt that he was worth the pick. Should we have traded down, or hoped that he would still be there for us in the next round?

Wow you inferred a whole lot about my opinion from one simple question.

First, "The point is that some teams had him valued as early 2nd round picks" is not stated in JASF's quote. All it says is that some teams thought Manuel was better than Smith. Which is clearly true.

It does not say
1) That some teams had high second rounders on him
2) That those teams picked ahead of us or
3) That those teams would have picked a QB. I mean, the Packers could have rated him a high first rounder, but there's no way they are drafting him when they just gave Rodgers like $125 million.

I'm glad they stopped playing games and took a QB, but I do also think he would have been there at 41.

[MoormanRules8]

I think it is funny that Draft day and the days after it the Bills go slammed left right and center for this pick, and now people are starting to come out of the wood work to defend it and say "Well maybe they did do the right thing taking him." I didn't like the pick at first but it grew on me, but I do love seeing people start to back track. Typical sports journalism, they say one thing, a few weeks later they say the opposite, and now in 2-3 years they can go back no matter what and say they called it.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Both opinions were there from the get go.

If someone wants to think he would have been there at 41, then that is their prerogative. No one knows that for sure and there is sufficient evidence to suggest that he may not have been.

So, there it is. He was our pick. Can we move on?

[MoormanRules8]

Both opinions were there from the get go.

If someone wants to think he would have been there at 41, then that is their prerogative. No one knows that for sure and there is sufficient evidence to suggest that he may not have been.

So, there it is. He was our pick. Can we move on?

Thinking people will just move on is naive, people will complain that he was drafted too high until he wins a SB, then they will say they loved the pick at the time. It's like the 150,000 people who were at the Bills Houston Comeback game that didn't even sell out. Everyone and their brother was there after the fact, but they only sold 65,000 tickets to the game with 53,000 being season ticket holders.

Hindsight always changes things, but looking forward few are willing to take a stand because god forbid they are wrong.

[Bill Cody]

I'm glad they stopped playing games and took a QB, but I do also think he would have been there at 41.

But noone actually knows either way do they? This was the first draft in a long time that QB's as a group were not ridiculously overdrafted. You've seen guys like Gabbert and Ponder and Locker picked top 10. So the Bills went into the draft thinking "we want 1 guy and we're not going to take the chance he won't be there in the 2nd". To me that was sensible thinking based on recent draft history. The Bills have no way of knowing what other teams are going to do. If they really wanted Manuel and they waited till 41 to take him and he's not there then what? Take a guy you don't want? Skip drafting a QB entirely?

The Bills didn't like either of those options. The extra 3rd they might have gained by a 2nd trade down was not worth the risk in their minds. Based on the last decade of Bills drafting that 3rd would not have made any impact anyway, maybe not even made the team. A franchise QB? That's worth a whole lot. It all comes down to Manuel. If he is the man where he was picked will be a minor footnote. If he busts this draft will not be a success. That simple.

[Jeff1220]

Another aspect of this that not many are considering is that teams KNEW the Bills would take a QB high. The question was whether it would be in the 1st or 2nd round. If the Bills didn't pick Manuel when they did, their 2nd rounder would've been telegraphed to the rest of the league. Any team that wanted QB bad enough would have leapfrogged the Bills for a shot at the first QB. Whether that would've been Manuel to the Eagles or any of the other reported connections with players/teams, we will never know. The point is, it is highly likely one QB would've been picked before 41 - they would know the Bills would pick a QB there, and leapfrog them to have their own pick of the litter. Then we'd all be sitting here questioning why the Bills didn't choose a QB sooner to ensure that they got "their guy."

[mightysimi]

Would anyone have given up a kings ransom to move back in the first round and possibly not have the rest of the draft? Having a first a QB and STers?

[better days]

But how many of those teams needed a QB that bad? Answer: Not that many. So who cares? He would have been there at 41. He's not that good a QB. Period. Outside of the Bills, Jets, and perhaps the Cardinals every team had addressed their QB needs. You people act like every team needed a QB and that EJ Manuel was Andrew Luck.

The Eagles were the team reported to WANT Manuel before the draft. Nobody knows if he would have been drafted before #41 or not. That is the reason the Bills drafted him at #16, they WANTED him.

[CoolBreeze]

But how many of those teams needed a QB that bad? Answer: Not that many. So who cares? He would have been there at 41. He's not that good a QB. Period. Outside of the Bills, Jets, and perhaps the Cardinals every team had addressed their QB needs. You people act like every team needed a QB and that EJ Manuel was Andrew Luck.

Yeah... that's it guy, spew your garbage, Spew it all over the board. All I can say to you sir is I wish I had your crystal ball, or Mel Kiper watching abilities... God forbid we give Manuel 1 drive before officially labeling him as no good. Oh and only 3 teams were unhappy with their QB's come draft day? LOL at you big time fool.

[feldspar]

Some people act like teams don't reach on QBs every year. That's the name of the game...you don't normally take these guys exactly where you have them ranked. This year's draft was markedly strange, but there is only so much you can gamble on where your guy will still be on the board. The Bills had to make sure they got their man...where are all the people that would have been OK taking Nassib at #8 now?

I perfectly fine with the Bills taking Manuel when they did, and they picked up Kiko Alonso in the process, a prospect that I love.

Bottom line: its all speculation when the Bills could have gotten Manuel. It's entirely possible that a team would have picked him before #41, or traded up to get him if they wanted him and felt the Bills would take him. NOBODY KNOWS, and nobody ever WILL know. All you know is that the Bills got the QB they felt had the best chance of being a solid starter with what they wanted to do.

The QB position is THAT important. They got their man, and that's good enough for me as far as draft strategy goes. I hope can develop him into a quality player.