Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

[BLeonard]

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research/nfl/contract-forecast-jairus-byrd-313/

• In 2012 Byrd was ranked #2 among safeties by Pro Football Focus, 2nd only to Eric Weddle.
• According to PFF, in 2012 Byrd was the #1 safety targeted while in primary coverage.
• Over the past year, Byrd has been the #1 most efficient tackler against the pass, and #3 best against the run.
• In 2011 Byrd had 3 INT - 2 of which he took back for touchdowns.

Our results here show a pretty favorable position for Byrd in comparison to his colleagues statistically, with just slight underperforming numbers in tackles and catch percentage. Byrd stands out tremendously in terms of turnovers, setting himself way ahead of these variables both in forced fumbles and interceptions. This makes him a rare "looks great on paper" defensive back. Add in a more than comparable Opposing WR Catch %, and it's clear Byrd is deserved of a deal well within the confines of these variable safeties.

Length of the Contract
Looking at safety contracts in recent years the 5 year deal seems to be status quo. While Byrd is on the younger side of our variables, it's still safe to assume he'll garner the standard deal.

Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $7.6M, a figure that would place him 5th highest on the average annual safety list. It's clear though with performance, durability, age and our statistical comparisons that Byrd certainly deserves a look at a maximum deal - either with Buffalo or on the free agent market. By factoring in our 18% Prime Percentage figure to our original base value we're able to output the following forecast:

Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $45,112,652

• Average annual salary: $9,022,530
• Guaranteed money: $19,669,116

-Bill

[Skooby]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

We got a discount this year, probably will re-sign him during the season & then he'll quit trying. It's the Bills MO.

[clumping platelets]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

He should get the same contract that Goldson got from TB....maybe increase the guaranteed money a bit

[jamze132]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

If we're ever going to be a solid football team, we need to sign our own players that can actually play football. We can't let him walk.

[elltrain22]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

If we're ever going to be a solid football team, we need to sign our own players that can actually play football. We can't let him walk.

100% agree!! Big disappointment if we don't lock him up. You can't say, we'll let him walk b/c we don't wanna pay that kind of money for a db. If you do that, thats the same mistake this franchise has made for the past 15 years. It hasn't worked for us in the past, and won't work now either.

[Pinkerton Security]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

PAY THE MAN!!!! FOR CHRISSAKE PAY HIM!

[Lexwhat]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

The numbers sound right to me. This was my post 2 weeks ago:

There is no reason for Byrd not to be the highest paid Free Safety in the league... Goldson and Eric Weddle are the highest paid Safeties in the league ($8 million per year) and Byrd is at both of their levels (IMO) or better. He is also younger than them both. $8 million a year absolutely is market rate for him, and if we don't sign him at that rate, some other team next season will gladly pay up to $10 million per year for him. Hell, Revis just got a $16 million per year deal (albeit not guaranteed), but it's very likely he will see at least 2 season's worth ($32 million) of salary. How can anyone say that Byrd isn't worth half that amount??

...Rotoworld speculates that the Bills are NOT willing to give him Goldson type money (i.e. $8 million per year)...

[OpIv37]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

Byrd walks.

No way the Bills pay that.

And even if they wanted to, I'm not sure they could find a way to squeeze him under the cap. Remember, we have $7 MILLION in dead cap from Fitz next year. Thanks, Buddy.

[ublinkwescore]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

Give him 9 mill a year. 4 years 36 million, 20 mill gauranteed. The non guaranteed should be incentive laiden.

[ublinkwescore]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

Get rid of brad smith, and all wrs from last season not named stevie and tj.

[JoeMama]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

TJ Graham can go.

He's small, has bad hands, and isn't that fast.

What an utterly worthless draft pick.

And I think even the boneheads at OBD recognize how bad a pick it was since they drafted two WRs in the first 3 rounds in 2012.

I wanted Russel Wilson with that pick. But noooooooooooo, I'm stupid. And the idiots that run this franchise are brilliant.

[OpIv37]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

Get rid of brad smith, and all wrs from last season not named stevie and tj.

Pretty sure they already did that. Nelson and Jones are gone. Anyone who's left is making minimum and not affecting our cap situation much.

[OpIv37]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

TJ Graham can go.

He's small, has bad hands, and isn't that fast.

What an utterly worthless draft pick.

And I think even the boneheads at OBD recognize how bad a pick it was since they drafted two WRs in the first 3 rounds in 2012.

I wanted Russel Wilson with that pick. But noooooooooooo, I'm stupid. And the idiots that run this franchise are brilliant.

Yet, if you criticize the team, you'll still get posters on this board who will say "well I'll take the opinions of the professionals at OBD over someone posting on a message board who isn't involved with football."

It's disgusting how often amateurs on this board are right while the professionals who make 6 and 7 figures at OBD to do nothing but study football and evaluate players get it wrong.

[JoeMama]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

Yet, if you criticize the team, you'll still get posters on this board who will say "well I'll take the opinions of the professionals at OBD over someone posting on a message board who isn't involved with football."

It's disgusting how often amateurs on this board are right while the professionals who make 6 and 7 figures at OBD to do nothing but study football and evaluate players get it wrong.

For real!

OK so I admit I may not make the best selections beyond round 3, but I definitely know who's good in the first three rounds.

And the sad thing is, if I ran this team, we would have made the playoffs at least once in the last 13 years.

You know why?

Because ****ing anyone would have except the morons at OBD who get paid to destroy the team I love.

[OpIv37]

Re: Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

For real!

OK so I admit I may not make the best selections beyond round 3, but I definitely know who's good in the first three rounds.

And the sad thing is, if I ran this team, we would have made the playoffs at least once in the last 13 years.

You know why?

Because ****ing anyone would have except the morons at OBD who get paid to destroy the team I love.

I'm convinced that there are probably 15 or so posters on this board- maybe more- who could have done a better job of running this team over the last 13 years than the guys who actually ran it, and they would have done it at a fraction of the salary. Would they win the SB? Probably not, but they would have avoided a lot of the major mistakes that this team has made and would have done enough to get this team into the playoffs.