Contract Forecast: Jairus Byrd

[BLeonard]

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research/nfl/contract-forecast-jairus-byrd-313/



• In 2012 Byrd was ranked #2 among safeties by Pro Football Focus, 2nd only to Eric Weddle.
• According to PFF, in 2012 Byrd was the #1 safety targeted while in primary coverage.
• Over the past year, Byrd has been the #1 most efficient tackler against the pass, and #3 best against the run.
• In 2011 Byrd had 3 INT - 2 of which he took back for touchdowns.




Our results here show a pretty favorable position for Byrd in comparison to his colleagues statistically, with just slight underperforming numbers in tackles and catch percentage. Byrd stands out tremendously in terms of turnovers, setting himself way ahead of these variables both in forced fumbles and interceptions. This makes him a rare "looks great on paper" defensive back. Add in a more than comparable Opposing WR Catch %, and it's clear Byrd is deserved of a deal well within the confines of these variable safeties.




Length of the Contract
Looking at safety contracts in recent years the 5 year deal seems to be status quo. While Byrd is on the younger side of our variables, it's still safe to assume he'll garner the standard deal.

Value of the Contract
Our initial age-adjusted regression provided an average annual salary just north of $7.6M, a figure that would place him 5th highest on the average annual safety list. It's clear though with performance, durability, age and our statistical comparisons that Byrd certainly deserves a look at a maximum deal - either with Buffalo or on the free agent market. By factoring in our 18% Prime Percentage figure to our original base value we're able to output the following forecast:

Spotrac's Prediction: 5 years, $45,112,652

• Average annual salary: $9,022,530
• Guaranteed money: $19,669,116


-Bill

[Skooby]

We got a discount this year, probably will re-sign him during the season & then he'll quit trying. It's the Bills MO.

[clumping platelets]

He should get the same contract that Goldson got from TB....maybe increase the guaranteed money a bit

[jamze132]

If we're ever going to be a solid football team, we need to sign our own players that can actually play football. We can't let him walk.

[elltrain22]

If we're ever going to be a solid football team, we need to sign our own players that can actually play football. We can't let him walk.

100% agree!! Big disappointment if we don't lock him up. You can't say, we'll let him walk b/c we don't wanna pay that kind of money for a db. If you do that, thats the same mistake this franchise has made for the past 15 years. It hasn't worked for us in the past, and won't work now either.

[Pinkerton Security]

PAY THE MAN!!!! FOR CHRISSAKE PAY HIM!

[Lexwhat]

The numbers sound right to me. This was my post 2 weeks ago:


There is no reason for Byrd not to be the highest paid Free Safety in the league... Goldson and Eric Weddle are the highest paid Safeties in the league ($8 million per year) and Byrd is at both of their levels (IMO) or better. He is also younger than them both. $8 million a year absolutely is market rate for him, and if we don't sign him at that rate, some other team next season will gladly pay up to $10 million per year for him. Hell, Revis just got a $16 million per year deal (albeit not guaranteed), but it's very likely he will see at least 2 season's worth ($32 million) of salary. How can anyone say that Byrd isn't worth half that amount??

...Rotoworld speculates that the Bills are NOT willing to give him Goldson type money (i.e. $8 million per year)...

[OpIv37]

Byrd walks.

No way the Bills pay that.

And even if they wanted to, I'm not sure they could find a way to squeeze him under the cap. Remember, we have $7 MILLION in dead cap from Fitz next year. Thanks, Buddy.

[ublinkwescore]

Give him 9 mill a year. 4 years 36 million, 20 mill gauranteed. The non guaranteed should be incentive laiden.

[ublinkwescore]

Get rid of brad smith, and all wrs from last season not named stevie and tj.

[JoeMama]

TJ Graham can go.

He's small, has bad hands, and isn't that fast.

What an utterly worthless draft pick.

And I think even the boneheads at OBD recognize how bad a pick it was since they drafted two WRs in the first 3 rounds in 2012.

I wanted Russel Wilson with that pick. But noooooooooooo, I'm stupid. And the idiots that run this franchise are brilliant.

[OpIv37]

Get rid of brad smith, and all wrs from last season not named stevie and tj.

Pretty sure they already did that. Nelson and Jones are gone. Anyone who's left is making minimum and not affecting our cap situation much.

[OpIv37]

TJ Graham can go.

He's small, has bad hands, and isn't that fast.

What an utterly worthless draft pick.

And I think even the boneheads at OBD recognize how bad a pick it was since they drafted two WRs in the first 3 rounds in 2012.

I wanted Russel Wilson with that pick. But noooooooooooo, I'm stupid. And the idiots that run this franchise are brilliant.

Yet, if you criticize the team, you'll still get posters on this board who will say "well I'll take the opinions of the professionals at OBD over someone posting on a message board who isn't involved with football."

It's disgusting how often amateurs on this board are right while the professionals who make 6 and 7 figures at OBD to do nothing but study football and evaluate players get it wrong.

[JoeMama]

Yet, if you criticize the team, you'll still get posters on this board who will say "well I'll take the opinions of the professionals at OBD over someone posting on a message board who isn't involved with football."

It's disgusting how often amateurs on this board are right while the professionals who make 6 and 7 figures at OBD to do nothing but study football and evaluate players get it wrong.

For real!

OK so I admit I may not make the best selections beyond round 3, but I definitely know who's good in the first three rounds.

And the sad thing is, if I ran this team, we would have made the playoffs at least once in the last 13 years.

You know why?

Because ****ing anyone would have except the morons at OBD who get paid to destroy the team I love.

[OpIv37]

For real!

OK so I admit I may not make the best selections beyond round 3, but I definitely know who's good in the first three rounds.

And the sad thing is, if I ran this team, we would have made the playoffs at least once in the last 13 years.

You know why?

Because ****ing anyone would have except the morons at OBD who get paid to destroy the team I love.

I'm convinced that there are probably 15 or so posters on this board- maybe more- who could have done a better job of running this team over the last 13 years than the guys who actually ran it, and they would have done it at a fraction of the salary. Would they win the SB? Probably not, but they would have avoided a lot of the major mistakes that this team has made and would have done enough to get this team into the playoffs.

[JoeMama]

I'm convinced that there are probably 15 or so posters on this board- maybe more- who could have done a better job of running this team over the last 13 years than the guys who actually ran it, and they would have done it at a fraction of the salary. Would they win the SB? Probably not, but they would have avoided a lot of the major mistakes that this team has and would have done enough to get this team into the playoffs.

As a guy who's used to living below the poverty line, Ralph Wilson could pay me 26,000 dollars a year and I promise you I'd make better decisions than Buddy Nix.

You literally have to try HARD to be as bad as us. I'm starting to believe we're being Major League'd by Nix and Co.

[Yasgur's Farm]

Looks like we got us a good ole fashion reach around party goin' on here.

[OpIv37]

Looks like we got us a good ole fashion reach around party goin' on here.

You completely missed the point.

It's not about us being so great, because we're not. It's about supposed professionals who do football for a living knowing less than fans on a message board who do this as a hobby when they have time between work, relationships, family, school and whatever else they may have going on in their lives. It's pathetic.

[Mouldsie]

TJ Graham can go.

He's small, has bad hands, and isn't that fast.

What an utterly worthless draft pick.

And I think even the boneheads at OBD recognize how bad a pick it was since they drafted two WRs in the first 3 rounds in 2012.

I wanted Russel Wilson with that pick. But noooooooooooo, I'm stupid. And the idiots that run this franchise are brilliant.
I wanted RW more than anyone but why would you get rid of TJ Graham after one season when he doesn't make much money?
Also he's not that small.

(Crap... This is going to become one of those situations where I start to like a player more just because of irrational hatred towards him)


Here haters: http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Graham-impresses-early/5b760bfe-e9f6-4ecc-9820-9b3c7c423193

[tatersalad]

what would stop us from franchising him next year? i dont see how he can leave even at 120 perecent of byrds contract next yr we are still under 9m a yr ? Nate Clement came in and signed we said we wouldnt franchise him

[tatersalad]

dont make same mistake twice

[JoeMama]

I wanted RW more than anyone but why would you get rid of TJ Graham after one season when he doesn't make much money?
Also he's not that small.

(Crap... This is going to become one of those situations where I start to like a player more just because of irrational hatred towards him)

Understand...

When I found out we traded up in the 3rd round to take a player, I assumed that our front office wasn't ******ed and would take Russel Wilson. All my friends made fun of me so bad when we took TJ Graham instead.

Graham is a horrible player and will never pan out. If he's still on this roster this time next year, I owe you a coke.

Because Graham is awful and doesn't belong in the NFL.

[GingerP]

Mark Kelso says he is asking $9M per year while the Bills are offering $7M per year.

[Pinkerton Security]

Guys, just put in your resume with every college and NFL team and let them know your amazing qualifications and I'm sure you can convince one of them to let you run a team.

Not saying Nix is the guy we need, in fact I want him gone.

[OpIv37]

Mark Kelso says he is asking $9M per year while the Bills are offering $7M per year.

Seriously?

I'm pretty sure Ralph, Brandon and Nix would walk into a BMW dealership and offer them $17,000 for a brand new M3, and while the salesman is laughing his ass off, they'll be trying to explain that it's a fair offer because the Nissan dealership across the street will sell them a Versa for that amount.

And that's why when the season starts, we'll once again look like we are in an economy car trying to keep up with the other teams driving German sports cars.

[OpIv37]

Guys, just put in your resume with every college and NFL team and let them know your amazing qualifications and I'm sure you can convince one of them to let you run a team.

Not saying Nix is the guy we need, in fact I want him gone.

Once again, you missed the point. It's not that we're so great.

Nix is a football professional. We're casual fans. We should NEVER get it right while he gets it wrong. But it happens all the time. I do not think I'm capable of running an NFL team. I do think I'm capable of running one better than Nix, as are numerous other posters here, but that's setting the bar pretty damn low. It's like being the fastest sprinter at fat camp. The definition of "better" becomes "slightly above god-awful."

[Yasgur's Farm]

You completely missed the point.

It's not about us being so great, because we're not. It's about supposed professionals who do football for a living knowing less than fans on a message board who do this as a hobby when they have time between work, relationships, family, school and whatever else they may have going on in their lives. It's pathetic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uGCSriDt5s

[coastal]

Can't we kick someone inside?

problem solved.

[mayotm]

Understand...

When I found out we traded up in the 3rd round to take a player, I assumed that our front office wasn't ******ed and would take Russel Wilson. All my friends made fun of me so bad when we took TJ Graham instead.

Graham is a horrible player and will never pan out. If he's still on this roster this time next year, I owe you a coke.

Because Graham is awful and doesn't belong in the NFL.He had 30+ catches for 300+ yards as a rookie 3rd round pick. Certainly not great numbers but there are plenty of examples of WR's struggling early in their career. Not to mention he was several yards behind the defense numerous times only to have Fitz miss him. To say he's horrible is completely premature. You simply dislike him because of where he was drafted. Not his fault.

[jwenger]

Mark Kelso says he is asking $9M per year while the Bills are offering $7M per year.

All I know is regarding Byrd is that if we don't pay him there are MANY other
teams out there who would be happy to pay him the money. Since he is a Bill
and always was a Bill lets keep him a Bill. Take Care of Your Own.

[Raptor]

Give him 9 mill a year. 4 years 36 million, 20 mill gauranteed. The non guaranteed should be incentive laiden.


Why would he ever agree to that?

When are people going to realize that incentive laden deals dont happen for good players heading into their prime and they sure as **** dont happen for teams that havent been to the playoffs in 13 years

[BillsFever21]

Why would he ever agree to that?

When are people going to realize that incentive laden deals dont happen for good players heading into their prime and they sure as **** dont happen for teams that havent been to the playoffs in 13 years

If the Bills were offering 7 million and Byrd wanted 9 million you wouldn't think it would be very hard to come together on a deal if both sides wanted to. Settle on around 8 million a year and be done with it. Something like a 5yr-42 million with 23 million guaranteed should easily get it done. That's right around the contract that Goldson received with an extra million in guaranteed money.

With the way that Byrd has played on a horrible defense it more then warrants a contract like Goldson. The guy averages around 7 forced turnovers a season and he's still only in his mid 20's. That contract would only take him up to around the magic 30 years old. He is one of the top few safeties in the game and I don't blame him if he wants to get paid as such.

If one major thing this offseason is teaching players is they need to get their money after their rookie contract. Now that they have the rookie cap limits and you have all these proven veterans on the wrong side of 30 that can only get 1 year deals for a couple million they only have that one chance to cash in. There really isn't anymore second deals from the way it looks this offseason. Teams are paying a premium for the good young players entering their first FA period and the veterans on the wrong side of 30 aren't getting the money they used to get and thought they would.

[coastal]

Another producer for the Bills that won't be rewarded with a second contract.

[Saratoga Slim]

Sirius NFL Radio Two Minute Drill reporting that the sides are $2M/year apart.