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Reasons to believe in EJ Manuel
Why the former Florida State QB can lead Buffalo to a top-10 offense
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Why the former Florida State QB can lead Buffalo to a top-10 offense
Quarterback hasn't been a position of strength for the Buffalo Bills in their history. Yes, the Bills did have Jim Kelly (whom I wish the best in his battle against jaw cancer) and Jack Kemp, but their fourth-highest rated passer in Pro-Football-Reference.com's career approximate value register is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was recently cut after leading Buffalo to a mediocre 20-33 record in his four years under center.
The necessity for upgrading at that position is a primary reason the Bills selected EJ Manuel in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft.
That pick was seen as something of a reach given many of Manuel's question marks. Scouts Inc. noted in its pre-draft analysis of Manuel that while his physical tools and leadership qualities are unquestionably strong, he had notable issues with reading progressions, decision-making under pressure and pass accuracy.
Given those weaknesses, it doesn't look possible for Manuel to replicate the recent dominant rookie seasons posted by Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III -- especially since Manuel needs to first beat out Kevin Kolb for the starting job. Yet the metrics show there is a good chance Manuel could help the Bills field a top-10 offense in 2013 if he is the starter.
That may sound far-fetched at first glance, but the Bills were not far away from being a top 10 offense in yards per play last season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Buffalo averaged 5.58 yards per play, a mark that ranked 13th in the league.
The primary reason for that ranking is a rushing attack that was one of the best in the NFL. Last year, Buffalo's blockers topped the league in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric with a 52.3 percent mark. (Note: GBR gauges how often the offense gives a ball carrier good run blocking, which is very roughly defined as plays when they do not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt.)
That dominant performance is a major part of why C.J. Spiller was able to rank sixth in the league in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a back is when given good blocking. His 9.1-yard GBYPA total placed fourth among lead running backs (those with the most carries on their team) and no back was given a higher GBR (53.9 percent of his rush attempts qualified as good blocking).
The offense also had some strong suits in the passing game. ESPN Stats & Information had Fitzpatrick ranked 10th in short pass yards per attempt (defined as passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield). That quality showing was due in part to the Bills' aforementioned run-blocking prowess, as Buffalo leaned heavily on a dose of screen passes to rack up those gains.
The Bills also have a top-flight vertical wideout, Steve Johnson, who averaged 22.2 yards per reception on throws 11 or more yards downfield (which is the definition of a vertical pass). That mark ranked him 16th out of the 36 players who had at least 20 vertical receptions last year.
Buffalo upgraded its receiving corps by adding WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin via the draft. Woods' 2012 season was something of a drop-off from his 2011 campaign, but he ranked fifth in my pre-draft comparison of the top wide receivers in the 2013 NFL draft, and Goodwin provides a vertical threat.
All of these items show that Manuel has a lot of capable offensive talent around him, so the top-10 offense question really centers on whether he can produce better numbers than Fitzpatrick did last year.
In many ways, the bar for improvement is quite low, as Fitzpatrick ranked 27th in Total QBR last year (45.8); he had nine games with a Total QBR of under 50.0 and four games with a Total QBR of 31.8 or less. Since 50.0 is the median number for this statistic, Fitzpatrick clearly performed at a below-average level in half of his games.
His numbers start to look even worse once the short passes are taken out of the equation, as Fitzpatrick averaged a meager 8.85 yards per vertical pass attempt. For perspective, Brady Quinn (9.21), Matt Cassel (8.95) and Mark Sanchez (9.45) -- among the worst passers in the NFL last year -- all did better than Fitzpatrick in vertical YPA.
It isn't a given that Manuel will be able to top that figure, but he did place eighth in the nation in yards per attempt last year (8.76). That figure was higher than the YPA marks posted by Geno Smith and Matt Barkley, and Manuel didn't have the benefit of throwing to two dominant wide receivers as Smith (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and Barkley (Woods and Marqise Lee) did.
As Gary Horton notes in this article, new Bills coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo West Coast offense will provide Manuel with an opportunity to use his athleticism to run the ball if nothing is available downfield.
While Manuel's rookie limitations will almost certainly preclude his moving the Bills' vertical pass numbers into an upper-tier range, even if he is able to move only the vertical numbers to a mediocre level, it will still be a significant plus for this offense and could be the steppingstone needed to vault this platoon into top-10 contention.
The necessity for upgrading at that position is a primary reason the Bills selected EJ Manuel in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft.
That pick was seen as something of a reach given many of Manuel's question marks. Scouts Inc. noted in its pre-draft analysis of Manuel that while his physical tools and leadership qualities are unquestionably strong, he had notable issues with reading progressions, decision-making under pressure and pass accuracy.
Given those weaknesses, it doesn't look possible for Manuel to replicate the recent dominant rookie seasons posted by Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III -- especially since Manuel needs to first beat out Kevin Kolb for the starting job. Yet the metrics show there is a good chance Manuel could help the Bills field a top-10 offense in 2013 if he is the starter.
That may sound far-fetched at first glance, but the Bills were not far away from being a top 10 offense in yards per play last season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Buffalo averaged 5.58 yards per play, a mark that ranked 13th in the league.
The primary reason for that ranking is a rushing attack that was one of the best in the NFL. Last year, Buffalo's blockers topped the league in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric with a 52.3 percent mark. (Note: GBR gauges how often the offense gives a ball carrier good run blocking, which is very roughly defined as plays when they do not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt.)
That dominant performance is a major part of why C.J. Spiller was able to rank sixth in the league in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a back is when given good blocking. His 9.1-yard GBYPA total placed fourth among lead running backs (those with the most carries on their team) and no back was given a higher GBR (53.9 percent of his rush attempts qualified as good blocking).
The offense also had some strong suits in the passing game. ESPN Stats & Information had Fitzpatrick ranked 10th in short pass yards per attempt (defined as passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield). That quality showing was due in part to the Bills' aforementioned run-blocking prowess, as Buffalo leaned heavily on a dose of screen passes to rack up those gains.
The Bills also have a top-flight vertical wideout, Steve Johnson, who averaged 22.2 yards per reception on throws 11 or more yards downfield (which is the definition of a vertical pass). That mark ranked him 16th out of the 36 players who had at least 20 vertical receptions last year.
Buffalo upgraded its receiving corps by adding WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin via the draft. Woods' 2012 season was something of a drop-off from his 2011 campaign, but he ranked fifth in my pre-draft comparison of the top wide receivers in the 2013 NFL draft, and Goodwin provides a vertical threat.
All of these items show that Manuel has a lot of capable offensive talent around him, so the top-10 offense question really centers on whether he can produce better numbers than Fitzpatrick did last year.
In many ways, the bar for improvement is quite low, as Fitzpatrick ranked 27th in Total QBR last year (45.8); he had nine games with a Total QBR of under 50.0 and four games with a Total QBR of 31.8 or less. Since 50.0 is the median number for this statistic, Fitzpatrick clearly performed at a below-average level in half of his games.
His numbers start to look even worse once the short passes are taken out of the equation, as Fitzpatrick averaged a meager 8.85 yards per vertical pass attempt. For perspective, Brady Quinn (9.21), Matt Cassel (8.95) and Mark Sanchez (9.45) -- among the worst passers in the NFL last year -- all did better than Fitzpatrick in vertical YPA.
It isn't a given that Manuel will be able to top that figure, but he did place eighth in the nation in yards per attempt last year (8.76). That figure was higher than the YPA marks posted by Geno Smith and Matt Barkley, and Manuel didn't have the benefit of throwing to two dominant wide receivers as Smith (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and Barkley (Woods and Marqise Lee) did.
As Gary Horton notes in this article, new Bills coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo West Coast offense will provide Manuel with an opportunity to use his athleticism to run the ball if nothing is available downfield.
While Manuel's rookie limitations will almost certainly preclude his moving the Bills' vertical pass numbers into an upper-tier range, even if he is able to move only the vertical numbers to a mediocre level, it will still be a significant plus for this offense and could be the steppingstone needed to vault this platoon into top-10 contention.
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