E.J. Manuel (ESPN "Insider" Article)

[Homegrown]

Reasons to believe in EJ Manuel

Why the former Florida State QB can lead Buffalo to a top-10 offense



Quarterback hasn't been a position of strength for the Buffalo Bills in their history. Yes, the Bills did have Jim Kelly (whom I wish the best in his battle against jaw cancer) and Jack Kemp, but their fourth-highest rated passer in Pro-Football-Reference.com's career approximate value register is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was recently cut after leading Buffalo to a mediocre 20-33 record in his four years under center.

The necessity for upgrading at that position is a primary reason the Bills selected EJ Manuel in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft.

That pick was seen as something of a reach given many of Manuel's question marks. Scouts Inc. noted in its pre-draft analysis of Manuel that while his physical tools and leadership qualities are unquestionably strong, he had notable issues with reading progressions, decision-making under pressure and pass accuracy.

Given those weaknesses, it doesn't look possible for Manuel to replicate the recent dominant rookie seasons posted by Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III -- especially since Manuel needs to first beat out Kevin Kolb for the starting job. Yet the metrics show there is a good chance Manuel could help the Bills field a top-10 offense in 2013 if he is the starter.
That may sound far-fetched at first glance, but the Bills were not far away from being a top 10 offense in yards per play last season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Buffalo averaged 5.58 yards per play, a mark that ranked 13th in the league.

The primary reason for that ranking is a rushing attack that was one of the best in the NFL. Last year, Buffalo's blockers topped the league in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric with a 52.3 percent mark. (Note: GBR gauges how often the offense gives a ball carrier good run blocking, which is very roughly defined as plays when they do not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt.)

That dominant performance is a major part of why C.J. Spiller was able to rank sixth in the league in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a back is when given good blocking. His 9.1-yard GBYPA total placed fourth among lead running backs (those with the most carries on their team) and no back was given a higher GBR (53.9 percent of his rush attempts qualified as good blocking).
The offense also had some strong suits in the passing game. ESPN Stats & Information had Fitzpatrick ranked 10th in short pass yards per attempt (defined as passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield). That quality showing was due in part to the Bills' aforementioned run-blocking prowess, as Buffalo leaned heavily on a dose of screen passes to rack up those gains.

The Bills also have a top-flight vertical wideout, Steve Johnson, who averaged 22.2 yards per reception on throws 11 or more yards downfield (which is the definition of a vertical pass). That mark ranked him 16th out of the 36 players who had at least 20 vertical receptions last year.

Buffalo upgraded its receiving corps by adding WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin via the draft. Woods' 2012 season was something of a drop-off from his 2011 campaign, but he ranked fifth in my pre-draft comparison of the top wide receivers in the 2013 NFL draft, and Goodwin provides a vertical threat.

All of these items show that Manuel has a lot of capable offensive talent around him, so the top-10 offense question really centers on whether he can produce better numbers than Fitzpatrick did last year.

In many ways, the bar for improvement is quite low, as Fitzpatrick ranked 27th in Total QBR last year (45.8); he had nine games with a Total QBR of under 50.0 and four games with a Total QBR of 31.8 or less. Since 50.0 is the median number for this statistic, Fitzpatrick clearly performed at a below-average level in half of his games.

His numbers start to look even worse once the short passes are taken out of the equation, as Fitzpatrick averaged a meager 8.85 yards per vertical pass attempt. For perspective, Brady Quinn (9.21), Matt Cassel (8.95) and Mark Sanchez (9.45) -- among the worst passers in the NFL last year -- all did better than Fitzpatrick in vertical YPA.
It isn't a given that Manuel will be able to top that figure, but he did place eighth in the nation in yards per attempt last year (8.76). That figure was higher than the YPA marks posted by Geno Smith and Matt Barkley, and Manuel didn't have the benefit of throwing to two dominant wide receivers as Smith (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and Barkley (Woods and Marqise Lee) did.

As Gary Horton notes in this article, new Bills coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo West Coast offense will provide Manuel with an opportunity to use his athleticism to run the ball if nothing is available downfield.

While Manuel's rookie limitations will almost certainly preclude his moving the Bills' vertical pass numbers into an upper-tier range, even if he is able to move only the vertical numbers to a mediocre level, it will still be a significant plus for this offense and could be the steppingstone needed to vault this platoon into top-10 contention.


Discuss ....

[Goobylal]

Considering teams could largely ignore the deep pass and stack the box, it makes the running game all the more impressive. And Levitre, the only loss on the OL, wasn't anything special in the run game. Add in a QB (EJ) who can not only make all the throws, but scramble, in addition to the running game, and it will place a ton of pressure on opposing defenses.

[Night Train]

He's still a rookie and growing pains are a given.

Yet this is year 1 of a new regime and Marrone might as well play him now, with future returns in mind. Grow as a team and he's your future. I don't expect much this year so why play Kolb and get 5-6 wins with Manuel holding a clipboard ? Accomplishes nothing.

You learn by playing.

[SpikedLemonade]

We had an extraordinary weak schedule last year.

This year's schedule is much much more difficult.

[Skooby]

We had an extraordinary weak schedule last year.

This year's schedule is much much more difficult.

Every year some teams fall down & some get better, so this is TBD.

[SpikedLemonade]

Every year some teams fall down & some get better, so this is TBD.

True.

However, this year looks particularly tough.

[PTI]

I would be interested in the breakdown of the Bills yards per play last year when the Bills were losing versus winning. They played from behind a lot, skewed the offensive numbers.

[OLDSRIP]

That breakdown just points out how bad Fitz really was. If they had even average qb play they would have won a couple more games.

[EDS]

Between the expected improvement in play from the crucial QB position, Carrington having a breakout season, Gilmore emerging as a Revis like lockdown corner, Mario being completely healthy, a major 2013 draft haul and the shackles of Gailey/Dave W. gone, these team has a FLOOR of 10-6. You heard it here first!

[jamze132]

If we had a QB and the ability to stop the run, we would win 10+ games every season. It comes down to roster management.

[PTI]

Going to have to order me a jersey. I am excited by his talent.

[CoolBreeze]

He's still a rookie and growing pains are a given.

Yet this is year 1 of a new regime and Marrone might as well play him now, with future returns in mind. Grow as a team and he's your future. I don't expect much this year so why play Kolb and get 5-6 wins with Manuel holding a clipboard ? Accomplishes nothing.

You learn by playing.

I agree 100%.. Unless our coaches believe we have a shot at the playoffs with Kolb/Jackson at QB by the end of preseason, I expect Manuel to start. It'd be pointless, let Manuel take the torch early. His work ethic is excellent, his attitude is humble, and he's said on many occasions that he wants to earn his teammates and fans respect, and lead. That alone is enough to make me want to see him start week 1. But to save face because every QB can have a well rounded work ethic, great attitude etc etc. He's got the god given physical abilities. I personally think in his head, he thinks this is his job to lose. He knows it, the coaches know it, and most importantly Kolb knows it. I expect him to deliver in the preseason and be out there week 1

[Goobylal]

True.

However, this year looks particularly tough.
Not really.

I would be interested in the breakdown of the Bills yards per play last year when the Bills were losing versus winning. They played from behind a lot, skewed the offensive numbers.
When you're playing from behind, you don't run a lot, meaning the running game is legit. The passing attack wasn't that good, and should improve, for reasons discussed.

[tomz]

We had an extraordinary weak schedule last year.

This year's schedule is much much more difficult.

Statistically that may be true but look at the divisions we played last year (NFC West and AFC south). I think you can argue that those divisions are at least the equal of this year's NFC South and AFC North. Miami, Jets, KC. Cleveland all dragged down the stats but they are a push on the schedule (in spite of the hype that they are somehow better, esp. KC.) SF, STL, Seattle, even AZ (5-1 when we met them, right) were arguably the best in football last year and maybe this. Strength of schedule is misleading.

[GingerP]

I would be interested in the breakdown of the Bills yards per play last year when the Bills were losing versus winning. They played from behind a lot, skewed the offensive numbers.

Ahead By 9-16 Points:

Passing - 23/35 (65.7%) 177 Yds (5.3 YPA) 1 TD, 0 Int 88.3 QB Rating
Rushing - 59 Att, 204 Yds (3.5 YPA), 1 TD

Ahead By 1-8 Points:

Passing - 56/98 (57.1%) 604 Yds (6.2 YPA) 4 TD, 3 Int 76.5 QB Rating
Rushing - 106 Att, 427 Yds (4.0 YPA), 2 TD

Behind By 1-8 Points:

Passing - 99/159 (62.3%) 1004 Yds (6.7 YPA) 7 TD, 6 Int 80.9 QB Rating
Rushing - 111 Att, 639 Yds (5.8 YPA), 2 TD

Behind By 9-16 Points:

Passing - 47/76 (61.8%) 503 Yds (7.0 YPA) 3 TD, 3 Int 79.7 QB Rating
Rushing - 43 Att, 268 Yds (6.2 YPA), 3 TD

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills

[trapezeus]

at the end of the day, last year was a different system. this is a new one. everyone is going to be trying to learn quick.

i don't think this is something EJ is going to be able to fix quickly.

[BuffaloWingEater]

i just want a qb that is more than relevant for years to come. we have waited long enough!

[Frenchman]

Well for now, he is playing behind Kolb. Unless some injury which it seems always does befall Kolb unfortunately as great as he plays healthy. Will end up befalling him.

[Goobylal]

at the end of the day, last year was a different system. this is a new one. everyone is going to be trying to learn quick.

i don't think this is something EJ is going to be able to fix quickly.
By himself? Obviously no. But the rookie/starting QB's last year had a lot of help from running games and/or defenses, which will be key for the Bills. The running game should be excellent, and may be even better if EJ starts, because he can stretch the defense and prevent teams from stacking the box like they did with Fitz. In addition, the threat of him running on any given pass play puts added pressure on a defense. The Bills' defense hopefully will be better, with better talent and a better coach. And having what appears to be a bonafide WR corps, albeit green, should also help.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

with pettine's coaching, the pass rush should be nuts... we haven't had these types of pass rushers, even low level guys in a long time... Mario, anderosn, hughes, dareus, Williams, Carrington, and then guys that have impressed in ots are blatnick, dowtin, gilbert..

[Jan Reimers]

He's still a rookie and growing pains are a given.

Yet this is year 1 of a new regime and Marrone might as well play him now, with future returns in mind. Grow as a team and he's your future. I don't expect much this year so why play Kolb and get 5-6 wins with Manuel holding a clipboard ? Accomplishes nothing.

You learn by playing.
I totally agree, and would like to see every one of our young, upcoming players on the field, learning to play.

[better days]

He's still a rookie and growing pains are a given.

Yet this is year 1 of a new regime and Marrone might as well play him now, with future returns in mind. Grow as a team and he's your future. I don't expect much this year so why play Kolb and get 5-6 wins with Manuel holding a clipboard ? Accomplishes nothing.

You learn by playing.

Well, if 5-6 wins is the best Kolb could deliver I would agree with you. But I am not buying that. If Kolb stays healthy, I think the Bills could win 9-10 games & maybe sneak into the playoffs.

"You play to win the game" & you do that by playing your BEST players. I do not want to see EJ at QB until he is the BEST QB on the team.

[feldspar]

Well, the long ball should be helped no matter who starts day 1. Fitzpatrick acted like he was winding up to throw the ball to the moon for a simple 10 yard pass, or so it seemed to me. The guy could not throw the long ball accurately to save his life last year.

Speaking of that, 44% of the current starting QBs in the NFL started day 1 of their rookie years...that's not including Manuel, since we don't know yet. Then, as a whole, about 63% of the current starting QBs started sometime in their rookie years...again not including Manuel. Then there are about 6 current starters that took over the reigns in their 2nd year, and about 5 others that started later for various good reasons.

The point is that the trend is to start your QB early...year one, in fact. All this talk about "ruining" him and sitting him for a year is not a thing teams consider doing very much. IF Kolb starts, he's going to have to play VERY well and the team has to be winning if he wants to keep that job this year...or there has to be some serious problem with EJ, which I don't see at this point.

[Goobylal]

Well, the long ball should be helped no matter who starts day 1. Fitzpatrick acted like he was winding up to throw the ball to the moon for a simple 10 yard pass, or so it seemed to me. The guy could not throw the long ball accurately to save his life last year.

Speaking of that, 44% of the current starting QBs in the NFL started day 1 of their rookie years...that's not including Manuel, since we don't know yet. Then, as a whole, about 63% of the current starting QBs started sometime in their rookie years...again not including Manuel. Then there are about 6 current starters that took over the reigns in their 2nd year, and about 5 others that started later for various good reasons.

The point is that the trend is to start your QB early...year one, in fact. All this talk about "ruining" him and sitting him for a year is not a thing teams consider doing very much. IF Kolb starts, he's going to have to play VERY well and the team has to be winning if he wants to keep that job this year...or there has to be some serious problem with EJ, which I don't see at this point.
Yeah, Fitz had to put all his weight behind long passes. Trent Dilfer called it "double-cheeking." And when you have to put all your effort into throwing the ball, your accuracy suffers.

And I've been saying start EJ from the beginning. It's the first year of a new regime. Let's see what the kid can do and get the future started now. Then choose one from between Kolb and Jackson to be the backup, and cut the other.

[better days]

Well, the long ball should be helped no matter who starts day 1. Fitzpatrick acted like he was winding up to throw the ball to the moon for a simple 10 yard pass, or so it seemed to me. The guy could not throw the long ball accurately to save his life last year.

Speaking of that, 44% of the current starting QBs in the NFL started day 1 of their rookie years...that's not including Manuel, since we don't know yet. Then, as a whole, about 63% of the current starting QBs started sometime in their rookie years...again not including Manuel. Then there are about 6 current starters that took over the reigns in their 2nd year, and about 5 others that started later for various good reasons.

The point is that the trend is to start your QB early...year one, in fact. All this talk about "ruining" him and sitting him for a year is not a thing teams consider doing very much. IF Kolb starts, he's going to have to play VERY well and the team has to be winning if he wants to keep that job this year...or there has to be some serious problem with EJ, which I don't see at this point.

I agree with this entire post. If Kolb doesn't show he is MUCH better than EJ or if he does but the Bills don't win anyway, might as well start EJ & get him some experience.

I just don't see that happening. I think Kolb will prove to be the better QB for NOW & I expect the Bills to win games & be in the playoff hunt until late in the season.

[trapezeus]

By himself? Obviously no. But the rookie/starting QB's last year had a lot of help from running games and/or defenses, which will be key for the Bills. The running game should be excellent, and may be even better if EJ starts, because he can stretch the defense and prevent teams from stacking the box like they did with Fitz. In addition, the threat of him running on any given pass play puts added pressure on a defense. The Bills' defense hopefully will be better, with better talent and a better coach. And having what appears to be a bonafide WR corps, albeit green, should also help.

i just think the OL is a wildcard. Even if everyone returned, they are running a new blocking scheme. it takes a while for it to gel. now they've replaced levitre (an allstar), with a backup from another team, and they have issues with depth

my expectation is not a quick turnaround. and i frankly just want to see the line stay healthy and be effective and improve as the season goes on.

i also think if EJ's mechanics are being worked with, then the bills are best served by having him on the bench for the first couple weeks. i'd hate to see a new offense, nfl speed and the mind games of changing his fundamentals with the pressure of an NFL fan base breathing down his neck ruin him for years to come. We have two great qb's who can take our ire for another year.

i also worry fred isn't coming back to the same level as he's been prior. last year seemed ot be filled iwth injuries for him. so that leaves it to CJ. and if he goes down from the extra carries, who is the back up?

i understand the optimism, but i also know the this is the buffalo bills. they find ways to take promising and run the other direction.

[SpikedLemonade]

i just think the OL is a wildcard. Even if everyone returned, they are running a new blocking scheme. it takes a while for it to gel. now they've replaced levitre (an allstar), with a backup from another team, and they have issues with depth

my expectation is not a quick turnaround. and i frankly just want to see the line stay healthy and be effective and improve as the season goes on.

i also think if EJ's mechanics are being worked with, then the bills are best served by having him on the bench for the first couple weeks. i'd hate to see a new offense, nfl speed and the mind games of changing his fundamentals with the pressure of an NFL fan base breathing down his neck ruin him for years to come. We have two great qb's who can take our ire for another year.

i also worry fred isn't coming back to the same level as he's been prior. last year seemed ot be filled iwth injuries for him. so that leaves it to CJ. and if he goes down from the extra carries, who is the back up?

i understand the optimism, but i also know the this is the buffalo bills. they find ways to take promising and run the other direction.

That is pretty much where I am -- a very slow turnaround and a very bad season.

The OL will disappoint many this year. It was average last year against a weak schedule and a quick throw system. A lot of the yardage was gained in garbage time as well.

The homers will quickly come down to earth after we get blown away in our Home Opener against the Pats and then lose our 2nd game against a Panthers team which ended the 2nd half of the season on a high last year.

[trapezeus]

i'm not that pessimistic, spiked.

i don't think it's going to be a good year, but if the bills beat the pats in the opener for any reason, then the sky is the limit. if they lose in any fashion, i expect it to be a slow season of constant disappointment. and after 13 years of this ***** fed to us by the same person, i won't be able to pretend like any of its ok for the longer term. even though i know we just need the OL to get where they need to be and See EJ progress through the year if he plays.

[justasportsfan]

i'm not that pessimistic, spiked.

what? You said we'd win 2 games this year and I'm holding you to that.

[PTI]

4 reasons to start EJ right away article!!!

http://www.trendingbuffalo.com/sports/buffalo-bills/4-reasons-the-buffalo-bills-must-start-e-j-manuel-immediately/

[JoeMama]

4 reasons to start EJ right away article!!!

http://www.trendingbuffalo.com/sports/buffalo-bills/4-reasons-the-buffalo-bills-must-start-e-j-manuel-immediately/

That's pretty funny.

The 14' QB class is going to be sick.

[TedMock]

That's pretty funny.

The 14' QB class is going to be sick.

It is and I do not see Manziel near the top of the pile. He's currently the best RS sophomore QB, but there are a few seniors I'd scoop up ahead of him. Obviously, Bridgewater is a junior, but he will be argued as the top guy going in. I like him. Not my top at the moment, but I understand him being the pick. Of course, there is an entire season to change my mind several times. In no particular order, guys I am currently most intrigued by are: Bridgewater (Louisville), Fales (SJSU), Boyd (Clemson), Carr (Fresno), Murray (UGA), Pachall (TCU), Renner (UNC) and Matthews (Cornell).

I'm sure some of these guys will fall off the list and others will be added come mid-season.