Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

[BillsImpossible]

The Patriots set the passing trend back in the early 2000's and won 3 Super Bowls.

The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year with Joe Flacco throwing for 22 TD's and less than 4,000 yards.

The past 13 Super Bowl champions:

2001 - Baltimore (run)
2002 - Pats (pass)
2003 - Bucs (run)
2004 - Pats (pass)
2005 - Pats (pass)
2006 - Steelers (run)
2007 - Colts (pass)
2008 - Giants (run)
2009 - Steelers (run)
2010 - Saints (pass)
2011 - Packers (pass)
2012 - Giants (run)
2013 - Baltimore (run)

7 Super Bowl Championships for the "running," teams vs. 6 rings for, "passing," teams generally speaking.

Pretty even, but the last six years show a, "new," trend.

[BillsFever21]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

The Ravens were more balanced but their pass/run ratio was still 55.8 to 44.2. In today's NFL that is probably considered more of a balanced offense compared to the teams that are throwing the ball 600-700 times a season. Flacco was 14th in pass attempts but in the 2003 season he would've been 5th in passing attempts. There also wasn't one passer that had even 600 attempts 10 years ago.

I'm betting the average plays a game are also up during that span so it's mostly what their pass/run ratio was. With all the rule changes leading to more prolific offenses there is more scoring and shorter drives which lead to more overall plays throughout the game and season.

The league definitely has turned to more of a passing league. The teams that are good at both and are more balanced can still have better success once the playoffs start. Especially if they also play decent defense along with it.

There are occasions where teams that fling the ball around for the most part like during the Saints and Packers championships can still win if they are very dominant in that area. Them are rare exceptions though. It takes some type of balance on both sides of the ball.

[stuckincincy]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

The Patriots set the passing trend back in the early 2000's and won 3 Super Bowls.

The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year with Joe Flacco throwing for 22 TD's and less than 4,000 yards.

The past 13 Super Bowl champions:

2001 - Baltimore (run)
2002 - Pats (pass)
2003 - Bucs (run)
2004 - Pats (pass)
2005 - Pats (pass)
2006 - Steelers (run)
2007 - Colts (pass)
2008 - Giants (run)
2009 - Steelers (run)
2010 - Saints (pass)
2011 - Packers (pass)
2012 - Giants (run)
2013 - Baltimore (run)

7 Super Bowl Championships for the "running," teams vs. 6 rings for, "passing," teams generally speaking.

Pretty even, but the last six years show a, "new," trend.

Offensive balance out of whack last year in the NFL
Pat Kirwan - June 29, 2013 1:25 PM ET

http://www.cbssports.com/general/blog/pat-kirwan/22574089/offensive-balance-out-of-whack-last-year-in-the-nfl

[Ingtar33]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

The Patriots set the passing trend back in the early 2000's and won 3 Super Bowls.

The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year with Joe Flacco throwing for 22 TD's and less than 4,000 yards.

The past 13 Super Bowl champions:

2001 - Baltimore (run)
2002 - Pats (pass)
2003 - Bucs (run)
2004 - Pats (pass)
2005 - Pats (pass)
2006 - Steelers (run)
2007 - Colts (pass)
2008 - Giants (run)
2009 - Steelers (run)
2010 - Saints (pass)
2011 - Packers (pass)
2012 - Giants (run)
2013 - Baltimore (run)

7 Super Bowl Championships for the "running," teams vs. 6 rings for, "passing," teams generally speaking.

Pretty even, but the last six years show a, "new," trend.

if you think the 2002 patriots were a "pass first" team you don't remember the 2002 patriots.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

The Patriots set the passing trend back in the early 2000's and won 3 Super Bowls.

The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year with Joe Flacco throwing for 22 TD's and less than 4,000 yards.

The past 13 Super Bowl champions:

2001 - Baltimore (run)
2002 - Pats (pass)
2003 - Bucs (run)
2004 - Pats (pass)
2005 - Pats (pass)
2006 - Steelers (run)
2007 - Colts (pass)
2008 - Giants (run)
2009 - Steelers (run)
2010 - Saints (pass)
2011 - Packers (pass)
2012 - Giants (run)
2013 - Baltimore (run)

7 Super Bowl Championships for the "running," teams vs. 6 rings for, "passing," teams generally speaking.

Pretty even, but the last six years show a, "new," trend.

2008 Steelers - 23rd ranked rushing offense, 17th ranked passing O
2011 Giants - 32nd ranked rushing offense, 5 ranking passing O

"Run first"?

[Mouldsie]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

Some poor examples here, but a good one is Alabama and Oregon

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

Some poor examples here, but a good one is Alabama and Oregon

They don't really answer the question of whether the NFL is a pass first league though.

[TigerJ]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

One thing I notice among the Super Bowl winners is that even most of the teams that tended to rely more on the run have had outstanding passers. Joe Flacco had a great 2012 season, Eli Manning is a fine passer, and so is Ben Roethlisberger. I admit, I didn't go back and look up who the QBs were for the 2002-2003 Buccaneers or the 2000-2001 Ravens. There is some other evidence pointing toward the shift in offenses toward passing, however. One is the draft. How many RBs have been drafted in the first round over the past five years versus the first five years of the 1990s? CJ Spiller is an exception to the modern rule. QBs are often overdrafted because they are so important to the pro game. WRs are frequently drafted pretty high too.

The reason the passing game has become more important is simple. The passing game is more exciting in the eyes of the league because it makes for higher scoring offenses and more big plays. I think they deliberately encouraged the passing game by restricting what DBs could do to make life difficult for WRs. By enforcing pass interference more stringently, they made it easier for WRs to get open.

Of course, that meant defenses had to try and figure out new ways to stop the passing game, and that resulted in figuring out new ways to pressure the QB. Defenses like the one Pettine is tryinng to install in Buffalo were born. Any time a trend develops in the NFL, that creates an opportunity. With defenses focussed on trying to stop the new high powered passing offenses, they have to give up something. That may mean the possibility of more big running plays for the teams that have the personnel (like Buffalo) to take advantage of it. Buffalo still needs to develop some explosiveness and consistency in their passing offense, but if they can make defenses respect their passing, they should be able to gash defenses big time with CJ Spiller running the ball. With a poor QB, CJ Spiller had a pretty impressive YPC stat last year. He is in his prime now, and should be able to do even more with decent QB play and some talented receivers.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

I admit, I didn't go back and look up who the QBs were for the 2002-2003 Buccaneers or the 2000-2001 Ravens.

Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer, respectively. They are always held up by the "You don't need an elite QB to win in the NFL" crowd, but keep in mind that a) it was 10 years ago and b) both of those teams had Top 5 defenses of all time. 01 Ravens might be the best ever.

By enforcing pass interference more stringently, they made it easier for WRs to get open.

And by enforcing the roughing-the-passer and defenseless receiver rules, they keep the star QB/WRs in the game longer too.

[TigerJ]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

And by enforcing the roughing-the-passer and defenseless receiver rules, they keep the star QB/WRs in the game longer too.

Very true. The motivation for those rules is probably player safety rather than making the game exciting, but those rules certainly have the effect of preserving exciting offenses by protecting the players who make it work.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

Very true. The motivation for those rules is probably player safety rather than making the game exciting, but those rules certainly have the effect of preserving exciting offenses by protecting the players who make it work.

Well it's a little from column A a little from column B. Player safety is obviously important, but fans get attached to stars. Nobody wants to see Ryan Mallett facing off against Brock Osweiler, they want Manning-Brady. That was the downfall of the XFL in my opinion. They removed all the player safety rules to make the game "more exciting" but all it did was ensure they (an already talent-strapped league) were down to 3rd stringers nearly everywhere. The game was unwatchable because coaches played ultraconservative to protect their guys.

[imbondz]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

The only teams I see on that list that had little running were the '12 Giants and the Saints.

Even the Rams, 'the greatest show on turf' had one of the best RB of all time.

It's possible to win without a good running game, but level of QB you need goes up exponentially. Brees, Brady, Mannings...level.

The threat of running is all you need, and we have a potentially great running team.

[Mouldsie]

Re: Is The NFL Really A, "Pass First," League?

They don't really answer the question of whether the NFL is a pass first league though.

Good point.


But the run game is far from dead.