My thoughts on Byrd

[THATHURMANATOR]

I don't care if he is signed long term.

He would be a complete idiot to not sign and play under the Franchise Tag

The only 3 things I care about are below

1) Is EJ Manuel the Real Deal? I really hope they just go with him and don't put it off
2) Is Doug Marrone the Real Deal? I like what I have heard so far but only small bits and pieces
3) Is Mike Pettine the Real Deal? Will his defense put the talent we have into the right places to succeed?

Yes Byrd is good but how much can you sink into a safety? If he is lights out in the new defense he will get paid regardless.

In reality if Manuel and Marrone are great we will succeed. If they are busts we will continue to suck no matter what else materializes.....

[better days]

When the Bills signed Kolb, I believe they promised him a FAIR Chance in Competition to WIN the starting QB job.

I don't see how Marrone can go back on his word about that. If the competition is close then Manuel most likely wins, but if Kolb CLEARLY wins the job, Marrone has to start him.

And I doubt players on the team would be happy losing games while EJ develops if they thought they could be winning games with Kolb at QB.

[BillsFever21]

When the Bills signed Kolb, I believe they promised him a FAIR Chance in Competition to WIN the starting QB job.

I don't see how Marrone can go back on his word about that. If the competition is close then Manuel most likely wins, but if Kolb CLEARLY wins the job, Marrone has to start him.

And I doubt players on the team would be happy losing games while EJ develops if they thought they could be winning games with Kolb at QB.

That may be more the case if you had a proven veteran that has a winning track record in this league as Manuel's competition. In reality what we're talking about is a journeyman QB who has missed more games due to injury then he has actually played in the NFL. Even then he hasn't been very good for the few games at a time he has stayed healthy. It's not like he has a winning track record in the NFL.

No matter if you think Kolb is a good QB and more then just a stop gap(how is beyond me) until Manuel is ready he is a journeyman QB. He is now on his 3rd team in 7 seasons, only has 21 starts and is 9-12 in them games and has also been given every opportunity to win the starting job by his two previous clubs but failed miserably. That is the definition of a journeyman QB. He is no different in NFL terms then Fitzpatrick but he has even less success in his career.

Hell he wasn't even the starter for Arizona going into the season last year. Skelton was named the starter after posting a good record the previous year after Kolb went down with another injury and beating him out in training camp to secure the starting job to start the season. If not for an injury to Skelton in the first game then who knows when/if Kolb would've even seen the field for his several weeks of football.

If this was always the case then Tannehill wouldn't have won the starting job for the Dolphins. Matt Moore played decent football for them and helped them win games down the stretch last season and the players already respected him. Moore is also much more proven and successful over his career then Kevin Kolb.

It also would've means that guys like Russell Wilson wouldn't have had a their chance last season. They paid Flynn decent money with intentions of him being the starter but that didn't materialize after the Seahawks liked what they saw in Wilson during the preseason.

[better days]

That may be more the case if you had a proven veteran that has a winning track record in this league as Manuel's competition. In reality what we're talking about is a journeyman QB who has missed more games due to injury then he has actually played in the NFL. Even then he hasn't been very good for the few games at a time he has stayed healthy. It's not like he has a winning track record in the NFL.

No matter if you think Kolb is a good QB and more then just a stop gap(how is beyond me) until Manuel is ready he is a journeyman QB. He is now on his 3rd team in 7 seasons, only has 21 starts and is 9-12 in them games and has also been given every opportunity to win the starting job by his two previous clubs but failed miserably. That is the definition of a journeyman QB. He is no different in NFL terms then Fitzpatrick but he has even less success in his career.

Hell he wasn't even the starter for Arizona going into the season last year. Skelton was named the starter after posting a good record the previous year after Kolb went down with another injury and beating him out in training camp to secure the starting job to start the season. If not for an injury to Skelton in the first game then who knows when/if Kolb would've even seen the field for his several weeks of football.

If this was always the case then Tannehill wouldn't have won the starting job for the Dolphins. Matt Moore played decent football for them and helped them win games down the stretch last season and the players already respected him. Moore is also much more proven and successful over his career then Kevin Kolb.

It also would've means that guys like Russell Wilson wouldn't have had a their chance last season. They paid Flynn decent money with intentions of him being the starter but that didn't materialize after the Seahawks liked what they saw in Wilson during the preseason.

Like I said Marrone & the Bills gave their WORD to Kolb that he would have a FAIR chance to WIN the starting job. It does not matter what other teams have done at the QB position before. The Fins nor the Seahawks did not promise anything to anyone.

But the Bills did PROMISE a fair competition for the QB job to Kolb to get him to sign with Buffalo.

EVERY player on the team will know if Kolb won the job & should be starting unless it is a close competition. If that is the case, as I already said, EJ will be deemed the winner of the competition.

I am sure after what I have read about him that Marrone is a man of his word & I have no doubt in my mind if EJ is the Starting QB against the Pats* opening day, it will be because he WON the job.........................or Kolb was injured in Preseason.

And Kolb had the Cards winning games before he was injured last year including a win over the Pats* in N.E.

[SquishDaFish]

Kolb really isnt as bad as seems. You do realize the Cards had prob the worst OLine in the NFL yes? He was hit like every other dropback LOL

[OpIv37]

I don't care if he is signed long term.

He would be a complete idiot to not sign and play under the Franchise Tag

The only 3 things I care about are below

1) Is EJ Manuel the Real Deal? I really hope they just go with him and don't put it off
2) Is Doug Marrone the Real Deal? I like what I have heard so far but only small bits and pieces
3) Is Mike Pettine the Real Deal? Will his defense put the talent we have into the right places to succeed?

Yes Byrd is good but how much can you sink into a safety? If he is lights out in the new defense he will get paid regardless.

In reality if Manuel and Marrone are great we will succeed. If they are busts we will continue to suck no matter what else materializes.....

Here's the flaw in your logic: the Bills are $18 million below the cap. If Byrd doesn't sign his tender, they're $25 million below the cap.

All of our FA's except Byrd have signed, either with us or elsewhere. All the top FA's have signed already. So, how exactly do the Bills plan on using that excess cap capacity to make the team better?

I think Byrd is asking for too much, but I think overpaying him is preferable to letting yet another quality FA walk after their rookie deal, especially with so much cap space available.

[Night Train]

Why is paying Byrd the tag number of 6.9 Mil for 2013 a bad idea ?

Why do we have to spend up to the cap immediately before a new coach learns his roster and who can execute his schemes ?

In any other town, the needed moves are made AFTER the first season of the new coach, once many questions have been answered. Then the roster is shaped the right way ( hopefully ).

[OpIv37]

Why is paying Byrd the tag number of 6.9 Mil for 2013 a bad idea ?

Why do we have to spend up to the cap immediately before a new coach learns his roster and who can execute his schemes ?

In any other town, the needed moves are made AFTER the first season of the new coach, once many questions have been answered. Then the roster is shaped the right way ( hopefully ).

First, even if we give Byrd his $9 million, we are still $16 million below the cap.

Second, Byrd is worth more than the franchise tender and he knows it, hence his unwillingness to sign it.

If nothing else, he goes into negotiations next year thinking "I could have another $2 million if these asshats didn't franchise me." Not exactly a great way to start things off.....

Third, Byrd is likely to hold out because of the franchise tender, and given who his agent is, the team should have known that a holdout was a strong possibility.

That's what's wrong with giving Byrd the tag number.

[better days]

First, even if we give Byrd his $9 million, we are still $16 million below the cap.

Second, Byrd is worth more than the franchise tender and he knows it, hence his unwillingness to sign it.

If nothing else, he goes into negotiations next year thinking "I could have another $2 million if these asshats didn't franchise me." Not exactly a great way to start things off.....

Third, Byrd is likely to hold out because of the franchise tender, and given who his agent is, the team should have known that a holdout was a strong possibility.

That's what's wrong with giving Byrd the tag number.

Well, it is all water under the Bridge, Closing the barn door after the cows get out etc.

It is too late for the Bills to give Byrd a long term contract now. For any amount of money. Which is what Parker & Byrd wanted all along.

Byrd can either report & play under the tag or not report & lose out on a lot of money that he will never make up.

I really thought the Bills would trade Byrd on draft day.

The fact they didn't means one of two things:

1) They really wanted to sign Byrd to a long term contract, but his demands were outrageous.

2) they wanted to make him play this year under the tag to see how he plays in Pettines defense before they give him the big contract.

[OpIv37]

Well, it is all water under the Bridge, Closing the barn door after the cows get out etc.

It is too late for the Bills to give Byrd a long term contract now. For any amount of money. Which is what Parker & Byrd wanted all along.

Byrd can either report & play under the tag or not report & lose out on a lot of money that he will never make up.

I really thought the Bills would trade Byrd on draft day.

The fact they didn't means one of two things:

1) They really wanted to sign Byrd to a long term contract, but his demands were outrageous.

2) they wanted to make him play this year under the tag to see how he plays in Pettines defense before they give him the big contract.
Or, 3- no one would give the team good value on a trade because a) they know Buffalo is up **** creek and has a weak negotiating position and/or b) they didn't want the hassle of dealing with Parker and this contract situation.

[better days]

Or, 3- no one would give the team good value on a trade because a) they know Buffalo is up **** creek and has a weak negotiating position and/or b) they didn't want the hassle of dealing with Parker and this contract situation.

b) could be very likely.

[Pinkerton Security]

Like I said Marrone & the Bills gave their WORD to Kolb that he would have a FAIR chance to WIN the starting job.

How do you know this? Were YOU in on the MEETING!!? Everyone knows the QB position is a very finnicky position and Kolb most likely signed with us because he thought he had the best shot of landing a starting gig, not because we guaranteed anything.

[better days]

How do you know this? Were YOU in on the MEETING!!? Everyone knows the NFL, especially the QB position, is a very finnicky position and Kolb most likely signed with us because he thought he had the best shot of landing a starting gig, not because we guaranteed anything.

I know this because I have heard BOTH Marrone & Kolb say it.

Kolb was not guaranteed the starting QB job. He was guaranteed the chance to compete for the starting QB job, so yes, he no doubt thought it was his best shot to land a starting job.

[Pinkerton Security]

I know this because I have heard BOTH Marrone & Kolb say it.

Kolb was not guaranteed the starting QB job. He was guaranteed the chance to compete for the starting QB job, so yes, he no doubt thought it was his best shot to land a starting job.

Sooo what you're saying is he was guaranteed a shot in the competition....you'd be naive if you thought that each "competition", no matter what team, is a level playing field. EJ was our first round pick, he's going to have a leg up in the race.

[mightysimi]

Kolb played well in Philly with Reid which was a West coast like system. Our new O is based on that too. I am willing to give him a shot but also realize that it will only take him a few games to get hurt and then EJ can play without the pressure of being the saviour from day 1.

[Mike]

Kolb really isnt as bad as seems. You do realize the Cards had prob the worst OLine in the NFL yes? He was hit like every other dropback LOL

Makes me crack up every time I see this. Blame everyone around the player that sucks except the player that sucks.... Lol

Kolb had good WR but held the ball tooooooo long which led to sacks. He lacks in the ability to throw open WR, and lost his starting job to Skelton -who I believe was a 7th round 2nd year player!

Both Skelton & Vick clearly outplayed Kolb during their time(s) together competing. He had every chance to earn it and become a starter.

Moore is clearly way better than Kolb and Skelton is slightly better.

If EJ can't beat out Kolb it means that he is extremely raw... Not a good sign.

[don137]

The Bills can franchise Byrd the next two years and still pay a couple million less than what Byrd is asking for and not have any large guarantee payment in case he injures himself.

[better days]

Sooo what you're saying is he was guaranteed a shot in the competition....you'd be naive if you thought that each "competition", no matter what team, is a level playing field. EJ was our first round pick, he's going to have a leg up in the race.

I think EJ will have every chance to win the job. TIES go to the first rnd draft pick. I already said if the competition was close, EJ would be declared the winner.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The Bills can franchise Byrd the next two years and still pay a couple million less than what Byrd is asking for and not have any large guarantee payment in case he injures himself.

They can, but that assumes that Byrd would still play hard knowing he has nothing guaranteed after that year. And of course, after that was over he'd still be in his prime, be furious at the Bills, and walk.

[better days]

They can, but that assumes that Byrd would still play hard knowing he has nothing guaranteed after that year. And of course, after that was over he'd still be in his prime, be furious at the Bills, and walk.

What team would give Byrd a huge contract if he pulls a Randy Moss?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

What team would give Byrd a huge contract if he pulls a Randy Moss?

What team would give Byrd a huge contract if he injures himself? *cough*Brent Grimes*cough*

[better days]

What team would give Byrd a huge contract if he injures himself? *cough*Brent Grimes*cough*

I agree with you if Byrd suffers a SERIOUS injury, he will have to show he has recovered from it like REVIS did this year with the Bucs before he gets paid.

He should have done the smart thing & taken the Bills offer of a long term deal. If he either plays poorly or gets injured, he will not see the kind of money the Bills offered him.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

I agree with you if Byrd suffers a SERIOUS injury, he will have to show he has recovered from it like REVIS did this year with the Bucs before he gets paid.

He should have done the smart thing & taken the Bills offer of a long term deal. If he either plays poorly or gets injured, he will not see the kind of money the Bills offered him.

Revis was injured this year and hasn't played a snap in a Bucs uniform. Yeah, he took an odd contract from Tampa, but if there's one thing to know about Revis, it's that he's absurdly confident in himself. I can't see Byrd taking a deal remotely like what Revis got. That's a massive gamble.

[better days]

Revis was injured this year and hasn't played a snap in a Bucs uniform. Yeah, he took an odd contract from Tampa, but if there's one thing to know about Revis, it's that he's absurdly confident in himself. I can't see Byrd taking a deal remotely like what Revis got.

The average guy in the NFL will be lucky to see the kind of money Revis makes this year in his entire career. And this is not the first year Revis got paid. The question for Revis will be.............. does he STILL have that money when he is 10-15 years retired?

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The average guy in the NFL will be lucky to see the kind of money Revis makes this year in his entire career. And this is not the first year Revis got paid. The question for Revis will be.............. does he STILL have that money when he is 10-15 years retired?

What the hell does that have to do with anything?

[better days]

What the hell does that have to do with anything?

The money Revis makes this year alone is more than enough for ANYONE to make in a LIFETIME. He does not need the security of a long term contract & Byrd wants the same thing, but Byrd is NOT worth it.

[BillsFever21]

The money Revis makes this year alone is more than enough for ANYONE to make in a LIFETIME. He does not need the security of a long term contract & Byrd wants the same thing, but Byrd is NOT worth it.

Almost every player makes more in one season then 99% of the working class will see in a lifetime. That has nothing to do with it.

Every player wants the security of a long-term contract. Byrd wouldn't be getting 16 million a year like Revis is. You are saying that Byrd isn't deserving of a long-term contract?

[BillsFever21]

The average guy in the NFL will be lucky to see the kind of money Revis makes this year in his entire career. And this is not the first year Revis got paid. The question for Revis will be.............. does he STILL have that money when he is 10-15 years retired?

In today's NFL along with salaries going up every season it's not very hard to earn 16 million dollars in a career. In fact it's pretty easy unless you have a very short career and wasn't drafted very high. Hell even McKelvin received a 16 million dollar contact this year after being a total failure for 5 seasons.

[swiper]

Revis was injured this year and hasn't played a snap in a Bucs uniform. Yeah, he took an odd contract from Tampa, but if there's one thing to know about Revis, it's that he's absurdly confident in himself. I can't see Byrd taking a deal remotely like what Revis got. That's a massive gamble.

Byrd is as talented as Revis.

[swiper]

In today's NFL along with salaries going up every season it's not very hard to earn 16 million dollars in a career. In fact it's pretty easy unless you have a very short career and wasn't drafted very high. Hell even McKelvin received a 16 million dollar contact this year after being a total failure for 5 seasons.

He was not a total failure by any stretch. I still hate him for fumbling the kick in that New England game. But he's not a total failure.

[better days]

Almost every player makes more in one season then 99% of the working class will see in a lifetime. That has nothing to do with it.

Every player wants the security of a long-term contract. Byrd wouldn't be getting 16 million a year like Revis is. You are saying that Byrd isn't deserving of a long-term contract?

Byrd was asking for $9 Million per year. While not $16 Million, it is still MUCH MORE than the AVERAGE football player makes in a year or even over his entire career.

The average football player plays a little over 3 years. that does not get them past the rookie contract.

[BillsFever21]

He was not a total failure by any stretch. I still hate him for fumbling the kick in that New England game. But he's not a total failure.

He was a top 10 drafted CB who has been awful for 5 years and who couldn't even secure the starting job without injuries or bad play by others the past couple years. He has been good on special teams but to say he has been a good CB is laughable. We have drafted numerous CB's over the past few years to try and make up for his bad play. If that's not a busted draft pick then I don't know what the definition would be.

[BillsFever21]

Byrd was asking for $9 Million per year. While not $16 Million, it is still MUCH MORE than the AVERAGE football player makes in a year or even over his entire career.

The average football player plays a little over 3 years. that does not get them past the rookie contract.

There are about 230+/- players drafted every year in a league that has 1,696 roster spots. That is over 7% of players being drafted in the league ever year compared to the total number of roster spots. That's also not counting hundreds of more rookie free agents that weren't drafted trying to make teams

Of course the average career of dime a dozen players is only a few years. There are always more draft picks the following season and not enough roster spots to keep everybody. The vast majority of them are also going to be guys drafted in rounds 5-7 that is out of the league within a few years. Everybody can't make the NFL a long career unless they double the roster spots or cut the amount of rounds in the NFL draft in half.

Your average level player that can make it in the league past his rookie contract will earn 9 million dollars a season. You have backups making at least a million dollars a year. Of course the guys who aren't good enough to cut it in the NFL isn't going to see that kind of money unless they are an Aaron Maybin type who gets drafted high and becomes a bust.

That's just common sense and I don't see where any of this matters anyway. Since most of the guys who can't cut in the NFL doesn't make 9 million in their career does that mean that everybody should take a lesser salary? Maybe we should have one set salary and if you make the team then everybody gets paid the same amount depending on the position they play?

What other NFL players make during their careers has no bearing on the contracts of the other NFL players that are drafted high or are able to make it 7-12+ during their NFL career. Maybe Byrd should play for 2 million a season since many guys drafted in the lower rounds won't even make that much money in their career if they survive their entire rookie contract? That has nothing to do with Byrd or any other player's value in the NFL.

[better days]

There are about 230+/- players drafted every year in a league that has 1,696 roster spots. That is over 7% of players being drafted in the league ever year compared to the total number of roster spots. That's also not counting hundreds of more rookie free agents that weren't drafted trying to make teams

Of course the average career of dime a dozen players is only a few years. There are always more draft picks the following season and not enough roster spots to keep everybody. The vast majority of them are also going to be guys drafted in rounds 5-7 that is out of the league within a few years. Everybody can't make the NFL a long career unless they double the roster spots or cut the amount of rounds in the NFL draft in half.

Your average level player that can make it in the league past his rookie contract will earn 9 million dollars a season. You have backups making at least a million dollars a year. Of course the guys who aren't good enough to cut it in the NFL isn't going to see that kind of money unless they are an Aaron Maybin type who gets drafted high and becomes a bust.

That's just common sense and I don't see where any of this matters anyway. Since most of the guys who can't cut in the NFL doesn't make 9 million in their career does that mean that everybody should take a lesser salary? Maybe we should have one set salary and if you make the team then everybody gets paid the same amount depending on the position they play?

What other NFL players make during their careers has no bearing on the contracts of the other NFL players that are drafted high or are able to make it 7-12+ during their NFL career. Maybe Byrd should play for 2 million a season since many guys drafted in the lower rounds won't even make that much money in their career if they survive their entire rookie contract? That has nothing to do with Byrd or any other player's value in the NFL.

The point is Byrd is NOT worth $9 Million Dollars per year. PERIOD. He is NOT a dominate player like Reed or Polamalou. He is on the next LOWER level from them & at no time in his career should he ever make more than either of them.

[BillsFever21]

The point is Byrd is NOT worth $9 Million Dollars per year. PERIOD. He is NOT a dominate player like Reed or Polamalou. He is on the next LOWER level from them & at no time in his career should he ever make more than either of them.

So he shouldn't even make a few million a year? That's all Ed Reed just signed for with the Texans. Well that settles that.

Of course he isn't as good as Reed or Polamalu they are a couple of the greatest guys to ever play the position and the best during their career. You can't compare contracts from several years ago and say nobody can ever make more then them. That's not how it works in the NFL. If that was the case then no player would ever get more then then players who were the best of their era and wages would never go up. They would still be paying top NFL QB's 10 million a year instead of 20 million.

Peyton Manning signed a contract in 2004 with an average of 14 million dollars a season and 34 million in guaranteed money. That was by far an historic deal at the time too. Nobody had ever came close to that.

You can argue he is the best QB of his era along with Brady when it comes to being elite for many years. With your logic that would've meant that no other QB would've ever received more then 14 million a season. Now we have below average QB's like Fitzpatrick who received 22 million in guaranteed money who lasted one season into that contract. We routinely see average starting QB's making 15 million a year along with Top 5-10 starters in the league getting 20 million or more a year. How could they have ever received more then Peyton Manning?

Antoine Winfield made about 5 million dollars in 2008. We are paying the GREAT DRAFT PICK in your words Leodis McKelvin 4 million a year. How the hell is he making as much as Winfield did on his last contract? That's absurd.

[Mr. Pink]

It doesn't even matter at this point.

This will be Byrd's last season here unless we franchise him again.

If he isn't franchised, he'll put himself into the open market next offseason and some team will give him around 9.5-10 a season because while he's not the best FS in football, he's top 3 easily. He deserves a big contract based on his pay and a REAL team would have made the effort to pay him accordingly.

We're a third rate organization who overall have the absolute WORST talent evaluators in the entire league.

From draft picks to FAs to retaining the picks we do get lucky on.

[airdog32]

Byrd isnt losing anything yet once the reality of losing his game $400k game checks is real he will sign his tender I am OK with him sitting out for now. I like the way the front office is going about this. Unknown factors at play still like thurm said I am more interested in how our new coaching staff prepares this team!

[Mike]

It doesn't even matter at this point.

This will be Byrd's last season here unless we franchise him again.

If he isn't franchised, he'll put himself into the open market next offseason and some team will give him around 9.5-10 a season because while he's not the best FS in football, he's top 3 easily. He deserves a big contract based on his pay and a REAL team would have made the effort to pay him accordingly.

We're a third rate organization who overall have the absolute WORST talent evaluators in the entire league.

From draft picks to FAs to retaining the picks we do get lucky on.

Unfortunately, Mr Pink your at least 99% correct.

Bills FO over last 13 years + = Div 3 Football

Bills are easily the worst team of the millennium and one of the most mediocre teams in NFL history....

I'm thinking it will be AT LEaST another 15+ years until the Bills have a chance to be SB contenders.

[Mike]

Better Days...

This discussion is boiling down to 1 argument. Simply you don't think Byrd is good enough. If that's your opinion and stance there is no point in arguing. You believe he's a second tier FS, therefore is no point in arguing details -like salary- if in your mind he's not that good.

[better days]

Better Days...

This discussion is boiling down to 1 argument. Simply you don't think Byrd is good enough. If that's your opinion and stance there is no point in arguing. You believe he's a second tier FS, therefore is no point in arguing details -like salary- if in your mind he's not that good.

I don't think Byrd is as good as players like Ed Reed or Troy Polomalou. Byrd is not the best safety in the NFL. In fact, Mark Barron had a good rookie year, he may prove to be better than Byrd. If the Bills had paid him the $9 Mill, I would not have been upset by that, but I am also not upset that they didn't.

I think the Bills may not value that position as much as some people on this board.

[Thief]

OK, I read most of this and I can sum up my thoughts in one sentence.... "I disagree with everything this Opiv dude said."

[OpIv37]

OK, I read most of this and I can sum up my thoughts in one sentence.... "I disagree with everything this Opiv dude said."

That's ok. Some people don't mind being wrong.

[Mike]

That's ok. Some people don't mind being wrong.

And those people are rare indeed.

[jdaltroy5]

The point is Byrd is NOT worth $9 Million Dollars per year. PERIOD. He is NOT a dominate player like Reed or Polamalou. He is on the next LOWER level from them & at no time in his career should he ever make more than either of them.

This philosophy doesn't make any sense.

You're basically saying that if Reed and Polamalu are in their prime, then they should be getting more than Byrd.

No one is disagreeing with you, but unfortunately it's not a straight comparison like that. Reed and Polamalu aren't in their prime and they aren't even free agents.

Byrd is just entering his prime and that's why he's looking for a big payday. If Andrew Luck was cut and hit FA, chances are that he'd sign a contract similar to what Tom Brady signed.

Does that mean that I think Andrew Luck is as good as Tom Brady was in his prime?

[Mike]

In a few years, Spiller will become an FA and demand to be paid a Top RB salary.

Would you resign him or say his not worth it because he would be getting paid more than Adrain Peterson in his prime?

[Bill Cody]

Unfortunately, Mr Pink your at least 99% correct.

Bills FO over last 13 years + = Div 3 Football

Bills are easily the worst team of the millennium and one of the most mediocre teams in NFL history....

I'm thinking it will be AT LEaST another 15+ years until the Bills have a chance to be SB contenders.

If you think that why are you hanging out on a Bills message board? Come back in 15 years. We'll manage without you.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Here's the flaw in your logic: the Bills are $18 million below the cap. If Byrd doesn't sign his tender, they're $25 million below the cap.

All of our FA's except Byrd have signed, either with us or elsewhere. All the top FA's have signed already. So, how exactly do the Bills plan on using that excess cap capacity to make the team better?

I think Byrd is asking for too much, but I think overpaying him is preferable to letting yet another quality FA walk after their rookie deal, especially with so much cap space available.

There is no flaw in my logic.

It is just my opinion. Not saying I am right or wrong about anything.

[THATHURMANATOR]

In a few years, Spiller will become an FA and demand to be paid a Top RB salary.

Would you resign him or say his not worth it because he would be getting paid more than Adrain Peterson in his prime?

I don't know. We will see when it is time for that.

[Mike]

If you think that why are you hanging out on a Bills message board? Come back in 15 years. We'll manage without you.

So, your suggesting that I become a fair weather fan, a band wagon fan?

[better days]

This philosophy doesn't make any sense.

You're basically saying that if Reed and Polamalu are in their prime, then they should be getting more than Byrd.

No one is disagreeing with you, but unfortunately it's not a straight comparison like that. Reed and Polamalu aren't in their prime and they aren't even free agents.

Byrd is just entering his prime and that's why he's looking for a big payday. If Andrew Luck was cut and hit FA, chances are that he'd sign a contract similar to what Tom Brady signed.

Does that mean that I think Andrew Luck is as good as Tom Brady was in his prime?

I doubt Byrd would be asking for the moon from a different team. I think he does not want to be in Buffalo.

[jdaltroy5]

I doubt Byrd would be asking for the moon from a different team. I think he does not want to be in Buffalo.
And rightfully so.

What does Buffalo have to offer him besides money?

Teams that are perennial winners don't have to offer as much money because they are virtually guaranteed to be playing relevant football come winter time.

We're a small market team with much less national exposure than most teams. That will also limit his ability to cash in big on sponsorship deals.

We HAVE to offer him more money because until we become a contender, we really have nothing else to offer to keep him here.

[better days]

And rightfully so.

What does Buffalo have to offer him besides money?

Teams that are perennial winners don't have to offer as much money because they are virtually guaranteed to be playing relevant football come winter time.

We're a small market team with much less national exposure than most teams. That will also limit his ability to cash in big on sponsorship deals.

We HAVE to offer him more money because until we become a contender, we really have nothing else to offer to keep him here.

I can't argue with this at all. I guess it comes down to do the Bills think Byrd will make enough difference short term to overpay him or why spend that money when the team is not a winner yet.

If it means making the playoffs because of Byrd vs 6-10 without him, they should pay him IMO. I think that is the question. Does Byrd mean the difference between the playoffs or not making the playoffs?

[jdaltroy5]

I can't argue with this at all. I guess it comes down to do the Bills think Byrd will make enough difference short term to overpay him or why spend that money when the team is not a winner yet.

If it means making the playoffs because of Byrd vs 6-10 without him, they should pay him IMO. I think that is the question. Does Byrd mean the difference between the playoffs or not making the playoffs?
Well I don't think they should necessarily think along those lines. There are very few players in the league that are the difference between a playoff team and a non playoff team. Those guys typically get in the 15-20 million range anyway.

They should just answer a few questions.

Does having Byrd make this team better?

Can we afford him under the cap?

Will we still be able to afford other players whose contracts are expiring in the near future?

[better days]

Well I don't think they should necessarily think along those lines. There are very few players in the league that are the difference between a playoff team and a non playoff team. Those guys typically get in the 15-20 million range anyway.

They should just answer a few questions.

Does having Byrd make this team better?

Can we afford him under the cap?

Will we still be able to afford other players whose contracts are expiring in the near future?

The difference between 6-10 better & 7-9 or 8-8 better may not justify that kind of money to a player that is 3 years away from 30 years old. If it is a difference between making the playoffs or not, then I think the money is justified.

[jdaltroy5]

The difference between 6-10 better & 7-9 or 8-8 better may not justify that kind of money to a player that is 3 years away from 30 years old. If it is a difference between making the playoffs or not, then I think the money is justified.
But that's impossible to identify. You can't say that they would be 5-10 without him and 7-9 with him. Those are just complete stabs in the dark.

And I don't get your reference to "3 years away from being 30 years old." First off, he's only 26, but anyway, 3 years away from being 30 means that he's just entering his prime.

It looks like you're just reaching for reasons to justify the Bills not paying him at this point.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

The difference between 6-10 better & 7-9 or 8-8 better may not justify that kind of money to a player that is 3 years away from 30 years old. If it is a difference between making the playoffs or not, then I think the money is justified.

FWIW, teams have made the playoffs at 8-8 before (and even 7-9, though obviously that was a massive fluke).

[justasportsfan]

And rightfully so.

What does Buffalo have to offer him besides money?

Teams that are perennial winners don't have to offer as much money because they are virtually guaranteed to be playing relevant football come winter time.

We're a small market team with much less national exposure than most teams. That will also limit his ability to cash in big on sponsorship deals.

We HAVE to offer him more money because until we become a contender, we really have nothing else to offer to keep him here.

if this is the case let him walk. Don't want players who don't want to be here. I wanted Peters resigned but he wanted out. Ciao!

[jdaltroy5]

if this is the case let him walk. Don't want players who don't want to be here. I wanted Peters resigned but he wanted out. Ciao!
It's not that they don't want to be here. It's that they need a reason to want to be here.

These guys didn't grow up watching Buffalo Bills football like the rest of us. It isn't their dream to play for the Bills. They grew up watching their own teams. In any business there has to be incentive to perform. We have the longest playoff drought of any team in the NFL. We have an owner near death with the future of the franchise undetermined. It's cold as all hell. We get less national exposure than almost any team which limits a player's marketability. Where do I sign?!!

Of course we're going to have to offer more money. You would do the same thing if you played for Cleveland or Detroit or any other place that had no ties to.

[better days]

But that's impossible to identify. You can't say that they would be 5-10 without him and 7-9 with him. Those are just complete stabs in the dark.

And I don't get your reference to "3 years away from being 30 years old." First off, he's only 26, but anyway, 3 years away from being 30 means that he's just entering his prime.

It looks like you're just reaching for reasons to justify the Bills not paying him at this point.

Byrd will be 27 years old before the vast majority of games are played this coming season.

And again Byrd is in the MIDDLE of his prime. he is as close to the end as he is to the beginning.

[jdaltroy5]

Byrd will be 27 years old before the vast majority of games are played this coming season.

And again Byrd is in the MIDDLE of his prime. he is as close to the end as he is to the beginning.

That's absolutely ridiculous. A player is not in the middle of his prime at 26 years old.

There has been ONE player in the last 20 years to win DPOY under the age of 25 and that was last season.

[Bill Cody]

So, your suggesting that I become a fair weather fan, a band wagon fan?

That's up to you of course, assuming you are a fan now. If you think all hope is lost for 15 years that's beyond "realism". It's really beyond pessimism. It sounds more like something a troll might say not a fan, just my opinion.

[better days]

That's up to you of course, assuming you are a fan now. If you think all hope is lost for 15 years that's beyond "realism". It's really beyond pessimism. It sounds more like something a troll might say not a fan, just my opinion.

I question if Mike & a few others on this board REALLY are Bills fans. Likely trolls trying to get a rise here. Even Op, the biggest pessimist on this board says good things about the Bills from time to time because Op is a REAL Bills fan.

[jdaltroy5]

I question if Mike & a few others on this board REALLY are Bills fans. Likely trolls trying to get a rise here. Even Op, the biggest pessimist on this board says good things about the Bills from time to time because Op is a REAL Bills fan.
Why?

Because they say negative things about a team that hasn't made the playoffs this millenium?

[better days]

Why?

Because they say negative things about a team that hasn't made the playoffs this millenium?

No, because they NEVER say anything positive even when the Bills do something positive.

And I was not including you in this. I think you are a pessimist like Op, but a REAL Bills fan just the same.

[jdaltroy5]

No, because they NEVER say anything positive even when the Bills do something positive.

And I was not including you in this. I think you are a pessimist like Op, but a REAL Bills fan just the same.
I tend to wait until things materialize before doling out praise or blame.

I'm not going to predict playoffs because of Marrone, Pettine, and Manuel, but I'm also not going to bash the move.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

On the other hand, I completely understand the anger after 15 years of futility.

[Bill Cody]

I tend to wait until things materialize before doling out praise or blame.

I'm not going to predict playoffs because of Marrone, Pettine, and Manuel, but I'm also not going to bash the move.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

On the other hand, I completely understand the anger after 15 years of futility.

Sure I understand cautious. I can understand pessimistic. But when you have given up all hope my question is "why are you bothering?"

[Mike]

No, because they NEVER say anything positive even when the Bills do something positive.

And I was not including you in this. I think you are a pessimist like Op, but a REAL Bills fan just the same.

The fact of the matter is that most homers only remember when we realist say negative things.

On some level, when we praise a move that is obviously positive were almost seen as band wagoners. We don't get the credit!

When the Bills signed Tekoe, Sam Adams, Milloy, et al I was ecstatic but these moves. They were so obviously good that that seeing them for what they were wasn't a factor of being optimistic or pessimistic but a factor of being realistic.

I also hoped they would land Gilmore & Glen. Falsely believed that MD was a great pick @ 3, and I even liked the Spiller pick.

But you don't remember any of this. You only remember me saying we should trade Lynch after his PB season, instead we waited a year. You remember me posting that Chan was such a bad hire that we would look back on Dick J and think of him as the better coach.


You mostly remember us blaming the Bills FO and ownership for their silly decisions, and to us what was obvious and realistic to you is negative and pessimistic and if you were correct in your observations that this team would have made the playoffs multiple times.

Lastly, we would have been so glad to be so wrong.

[better days]

Sure I understand cautious. I can understand pessimistic. But when you have given up all hope my question is "why are you bothering?"

Well, unless you are a fan of a different team just trying to stir things up.

I lurk on other teams boards without posting because I like to get the perspective of other teams fans, but I can tell who the trolls are on those boards.

[better days]

The fact of the matter is that most homers only remember when we realist say negative things.

On some level, when we praise a move that is obviously positive were almost seen as band wagoners. We don't get the credit!

When the Bills signed Tekoe, Sam Adams, Milloy, et al I was ecstatic but these moves. They were so obviously good that that seeing them for what they were wasn't a factor of being optimistic or pessimistic but a factor of being realistic.

I also hoped they would land Gilmore & Glen. Falsely believed that MD was a great pick @ 3, and I even liked the Spiller pick.

But you don't remember any of this. You only remember me saying we should trade Lynch after his PB season, instead we waited a year. You remember me posting that Chan was such a bad hire that we would look back on Dick J and think of him as the better coach.


You mostly remember us blaming the Bills FO and ownership for their silly decisions, and to us what was obvious and realistic to you is negative and pessimistic and if you were correct in your observations that this team would have made the playoffs multiple times.

Lastly, we would have been so glad to be so wrong.

Show me ONE positive post you have made about the Bills in the past & I will give you a deep sincere apology.

[Mike]

That's up to you of course, assuming you are a fan now. If you think all hope is lost for 15 years that's beyond "realism". It's really beyond pessimism. It sounds more like something a troll might say not a fan, just my opinion.

I enjoy the football season one way or another. As for the 15 years, I have good reason to validate my claim.

In fact, 15years ago, I pretty much said the same thing and so far I've been correct. I tend to look at the NFL holistically with an understanding of history and trends.

Here is what I can tell you:
1) Each Generation has their top QBs
2) These top QBs win most of the SBs within their generation.
3) Many of these careers last around 15 year
4) There is some overlap -but minimal (the elite QBs remain elite until end of their career)
5) Teams without an elite QB have a very low probability of winning SB
6) Shift: Currently, there is a changing of the guard -a shift- from one generation to the next...

It's starting now, from the Brady, Breese, Manning era to RG3, Luck, Wilson, era...
(With Overlap QBs like Big Ben, Rogers, Eli, etc)
7) The Bills don't have a QB on this caliber or anywhere close to it.
8) These types of QBs (Manning, Luck, Brady) are once in a generation
9) Probability indicates that the chances the Bills draft such a once in a generation QB to be very low.

Conclusion: chances are the Bills will not draft a once in a generation QB anytime in the next 15years thus lowering the probability they win a SB without such a QB!

PS: EJ at his best might be Donavan McNabb 2.0 however Donavan never one the Big one, he was very good but not great.

So could the Bills field a good, competitive team? Yes
Will they win SBs in next 15yrs? Probably Not

[Mike]

Show me ONE positive post you have made about the Bills in the past & I will give you a deep sincere apology.

Ok...
Look at all my posts and threads.
At one point I even applauded Fitzpatrick. I supported the MD pick, and Gilmore pick last year.

The seeming negative makes more noise only because you don't want to hear it. When everyone is excited, and I'm one of those excited fans, it gets lost in the shuffle.

[Mike]

Show me ONE positive post you have made about the Bills in the past & I will give you a deep sincere apology.

Here are Two:

1) When everyone was bashing Mario Williams performance through 7 games I pointing out that Williams was not a bust as everyone suggested and expected him to turn it around. Ironically, most posters were negative

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/215054-J-Peppers-vs-M-Williams?highlight=

2) Being a realist doesn't always mean your correct. I predicted a Bills win over the Jets in the opener last season.

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/213401-Jets-vs-Bills-Prediction-Thread?highlight=

[better days]

Here are Two:

1) When everyone was bashing Mario Williams performance through 7 games I pointing out that Williams was not a bust as everyone suggested and expected him to turn it around. Ironically, most posters were negative

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/215054-J-Peppers-vs-M-Williams?highlight=

2) Being a realist doesn't always mean your correct. I predicted a Bills win over the Jets in the opener last season.

http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php/213401-Jets-vs-Bills-Prediction-Thread?highlight=

Well, if you say you are a Bills fan, I will believe you, my apologies.

[Mike]

Well, if you say you are a Bills fan, I will believe you, my apologies.

It's all good.
I express my opinion and try to be as objective as possible. If I see a great move, I express that sentiment and if I see a terrible move I do the same;)

Unfortunately, it's been more of the later, evident in the Bills record over the past 15 years.

Honestly, in 2002, I think Ralph really tried winning and the results were so discouraging that he gave up hope. Now being a very old man, he believes that he won't get to experience a SB win, so he's doing what's best for his family and the sell-ability of the franchise. Thus, were $25M under the cap and not resigning our best players.