Play it safe or go for the jugular?

[Electrici]

Hey guys, I was curious on your opinion as I know what I would do in the situation but feel as though other peoples' opinions might differ.

The Bills were up 21-20 on the Patriots on Sunday, into the 4th quarter. Let's say the Bills actually scored a TD to give them the 6 points, making it 27-20 with an extra point opportunity. Would you take the extra point, making it an 8 point game. Or would you attempt the 2 point conversion to make it a 9 point game, 2 possession game?

Me, personally, I would have gone for 2. Even if it were missed, its still a 7 point lead. My feelings are that if we kick the extra point and the Pats ended up scoring the inevitable TD on the ensuring drive, they would have gone for two and of course made it. While science cannot back me on this, due to it being my opinion only, but let's be honest, its the Bills and that Pats would have converted the 2 point conversion, tying the game. Whereas if the lead was only 7, my guess is that the Pats would have simply kicked the PAT to tie the game. (Or who knows, converted the 2 point conversion for the win... I think they kick it though.)

I know the typical rule of thumb is to "take the points" if they are there for the taking, and conventional wisdom would say kick the PAT... but what do you guys think?

Is going for 2 in that situation an awful idea or showing that you want to make the game a near impossible win for the other team?

Curious on your thoughts,
Michael

[TacklingDummy]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

Extra point.
Make the Pats go for 2.
Don't give them the easy XP.

[trapezeus]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

agreed, its a two score game or a one score and still score a 2 pt conversion to tie. those are hard percentages as is.

you only get 7 when you had the chance for 8 with high odds, you know the patriots will score and then go for two and walk into the endzone, win the game and you go back to your car and break the radio.

you can't be cute playing the pats, take the points when they are available. make the high odds decision consistently and you'll win.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

A two score lead is enormous, much better than 8 imo

[The King]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

Take the points put the pressure on the Pats.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

Based on the opponent I'd figure the Pats to get the 2 if they needed it so kicking that XP to me is meaningless.

If the Pats score a TD we're going to OT either way, failed 2 or XP, the way I see it.

So I go for the win in regulation and attempt the 2 point conversion.

[bdutton]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

I'd punt. Play a field position game.

[stuckincincy]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

I'd punt. Play a field position game.

Always.

A problem - for years - IMO - is this blind trust in Offensive Coordinators. For my money, many of 'em are pushing the edge in hope that they get a coveted HC gig. Going for the big cha-ching.

IRC, some HCs stripped their OC of duties in recent years.

The local Idiot here in CIN called for a pass play, deep in their own side of the field that gave their opponent time to kick for what was the winning margin, this past Sunday. Had they run the clock, they win.

Frustrating.

BUF should have run down the clock, too.

I reject the ideas of those who said keep up the quick pace. They had the lead in the 4th. Run the clock. Period.





l
m

[BLeonard]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

I honestly thought about this at that point o the game on Sunday... My instinct at the time was to go for two.

Now, with hindsight being 20/20, it would depend on how much time was left when the Bills scored the TD. The more time that was left, the more likely I would kick the PAT.

Making it a two possession game is nice, but that doesn't mean anything if New England very likely gets 3 or more possessions afterward.

I do wish that the Bills had scored a TD in the 4th, so that we could have seriously had the discussion, though...

-Bill

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

Which do you think is harder, Brady and the Pats scoring from the 2 or the Patriots recovering an onside kick? I think people greatly overestimate the difficulty of converting 2 point plays.

2 point conversions succeed roughly 50% of the time, expected onside kicks succeed about 20% of the time (maybe even less so since they changed the rules). Then you have to account for a team that needs to drive the field twice and kick a field goal.

Besides, it's not like the game is over if they fail the 2 pt conversion, they can still onside kick and still try for the field goal in the exact same manner.

[BillsFever21]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

I'd kick the extra point. If two point conversions were so easy then teams would be trying them early in the game and not late in the game. Especially late in the game you need to force that other team to score the TD and make the 2pt conversion to send it to OT. If you're afraid of playing them in OT if they did convert all of them then you're probably not very good to begin with.

The success rate the past three years for 2pt conversions are slightly under 50%. In 2012 there were 58 attempts with 28 of them successful. In 2011 there were 49 attempts with 23 of them successful. In 2010 there were 53 attempts with 26 of them successful. That's a total conversion rate of 77-160(48%) over the past few seasons. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/st...atistics/2012/

So basically over a small sample size it's almost a 50/50 chance of making it. If more teams tried it then the stats would probably go down. That's also not taking into account how the course of the game was going when they were attempted. If a team is far down late in the game then the defense probably isn't playing it as tough as they would and the offense doesn't have the same stress level of making it as if the game was on the line.

It can also depend on your team and the team you're playing against. If you're a team that is fairly successful at converting 2pt conversions and the other team isn't very good at stopping them then that may make a difference on the call. Either way 95% of the time the coach is going to kick the extra point and force the other team to score a TD and a 2pt conversion to tie you.

Some says try for 2pts but I guarantee you if the coach went for it and missed it which allowed the other team to only need an extra point to send it to OT there would be a revolt. If it was that easy then we would see it much more then we do.

[Typ0]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

In your own stadium making the other team drive the field, score a TD PLUS convert for 2 is pretty good odds for a win. It's kinda crazy to not kick the PAT in those circumstances.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

It has nothing to do with them being easy or not...it's old guard mentality in the NFL...

Take the points. 4th and 1 near midfield punt. Play field position. etc etc etc...

It's a counter culture move that people are afraid of trying because if it fails one time out of ten they'll get chastised all over the place for it.

If I ran a team, I'd have one kicker...sometimes you need a FG to win...he'd also handle punting duties in blowouts because I don't want to run up the score on someone and piss them off and then late in a one score game with the ball on my side of the 40 I'd punt on 4th and longer than a few.

Outside of that, I'd never kick period.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

I'd kick the extra point. If two point conversions were so easy then teams would be trying them early in the game and not late in the game. Especially late in the game you need to force that other team to score the TD and make the 2pt conversion to send it to OT. If you're afraid of playing them in OT if they did convert all of them then you're probably not very good to begin with.

It has nothing to do with being "afraid" of being them in OT, it's the chance to put them a full possession behind. If you go for it and fail, you still have a 7 point lead and every single coach ever is going to kick the PAT if they score to tie you. However, if you succeed, now you are up 9 and the losing team is scrambling down two possessions.

So basically over a small sample size it's almost a 50/50 chance of making it. If more teams tried it then the stats would probably go down. That's also not taking into account how the course of the game was going when they were attempted. If a team is far down late in the game then the defense probably isn't playing it as tough as they would and the offense doesn't have the same stress level of making it as if the game was on the line.

Why would you assume that? As it stands, 2 point conversions are usually the strategy of the desperate, so naturally its being attempted most by weaker teams against stronger ones.

It can also depend on your team and the team you're playing against. If you're a team that is fairly successful at converting 2pt conversions and the other team isn't very good at stopping them then that may make a difference on the call. Either way 95% of the time the coach is going to kick the extra point and force the other team to score a TD and a 2pt conversion to tie you.

If the other team is quarterbacked by one of the best QBs of all time, who has historically raped you in pressure situations, then wouldn't you want to force him to drive the field twice rather than banking on stopping him on the 2 point conversion?

Some says try for 2pts but I guarantee you if the coach went for it and missed it which allowed the other team to only need an extra point to send it to OT there would be a revolt. If it was that easy then we would see it much more then we do.

Well, don't we always claim to want coaches who make the smart decision even if its unpopular?

As the league starts to emphasize offense then the conservative put-the-game-on-your-defense strategies developed 50 years ago don't make sense any more. Possession is the single most important thing you can have, and coaches are willing to trade that sometimes for less than 30 yards of field position?

Imagine I offered you this trade: You could punt on 3rd down but it would go twenty yards farther guaranteed. Would you be willing to trade another down for 20 yards of field position? Would you punt on 2nd if it went forty yards further?

[Typ0]

Re: Play it safe or go for the jugular?

teams can already do that it's called a free kick...no returner.