JCBills
09-20-2013, 03:54 AM
This has been a heated debate on the boards since Nix was made GM.
Before you read anything I have to say about these picks, understand that these are young guys still developing their craft. A lot of fans expect instant results from players that are learning the NFL game. We have been fortunate enough to recently have a few rookies establish themselves early on, but that can't be the expectation for most of the young crop. A lot of players take a few seasons to really live up to expectations, some positions have a tougher learning curve than others. Nothing is certain, but the combination of youth and talent they have put together over the past few seasons looks like the best they have had in a while. This is simply a viewpoint, not an evaluation that claims to be definitive. Buffalo is currently the 3rd youngest team in the NFL, and I know the word "potential" is overused and at times annoying to see, but this Bills team is in the position to grow together into a very good football team. Anyone paying attention can see their potential (lol i know right) but as with any team it comes down to execution. Onto the picks.
2010:
CJ Spiller 1st - Spiller has emerged as one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. Looks to be a very good pick. In 2012, Spiller was the 4th fastest player to reach 1,000 yds based on how many carries it took in NFL history. Exceptional pass-catcher considering he's a runningback. Fierce competitor and a home run threat on any play.
Torrell Troup 2nd - Injuries have sidelined Troup for most of his career thus far. Had the potential to be a decent rotational player, but wasn't able to recover from a back injury. Probably done in the NFL.
Alex Carrington 3rd - Carrington has developed into a very versatile defensive lineman and a big part of this Buffalo D, having played DE, DT, and OLB. Exceptional ST player (3 blocked FG in 2012 - franchise record), graded out as one of the best backup DL in the NFL in 2012 per PFF.com. "Megahand" was able to add around 20lbs since entering the league without sacrificing much athleticism at all. I think this is his contract year, and it would be in the team's best interest to extend him.
Marcus Easley 4th - Easley also battled injury early on, but this season had an exceptional preseason and has made a few big plays on special teams in the regular season. He beat out a few talented young UDFA WRs (Da'Rick Rogers - Once considered the best WR in the SEC before his troubles - Brandon Kaufman - Holder of the FCS single season receiving yards record with 1,850) to stick around again, but sits behind what looks to be a talented WR group.
Ed Wang 5th - Bad pick, but you don't expect much from the guys that are taken at this point in the draft. Wang bounced around the league for a bit, but currently isn't on an NFL roster.
Arthur Moats 6th - Winner of the Buck Buchanan award as the best defensive player in FCS (1-AA) Moats hasn't been able to find an identity yet in the league, having been moved around from inside to outside in a few different schemes. He looks like he's doing a little better in Pettine's new scheme.
Danny Batten 6th - Batten, like Moats, was a standout in the FCS (1-AA) that specialized in rushing the passer. He wasn't able to stick for long. Bad pick, but again this is late in the draft. Batten has been out of the NFL since his release.
Levi Brown 7th - Project QB that obviously didn't pan out. He tried making it in the CFL but wasn't able to stick.
Kyle Calloway 7th - Project OG, see above. Had a stint in the UFL and a few weeks with the Ravens.
Spiller and Carrington were obviously the best picks, with one ending up an elite NFL RB and the other an exceptionally versatile lineman. Easley and Moats look like they could be valuable backups and ST players, which is about what you would expect based on where they were taken. Outside of that, this was a poor draft.
2011:
Marcell Dareus 1st - Dareus has had some ups and downs, but has been dominant at times. Still coming into his own at just 23 years of age, Dareus has already shown enough to think he could end up being a real force in the NFL. In his 34 games played he has posted 12 sacks and 9 pass deflections. Anyone who watches games has seen him blow up run plays at times. Dareus has scary potential, and I think Pettine's scheme paired with the talent they have acquired will show what the "rolling ball of butcher knives" can do. (One of the best scout quotes I've heard, per PFW). Looks like he can end up worth the pick.
Aaron Williams 2nd - Williams struggled at times when playing CB, but the move to safety has shown to be a successful one so far. Like Dareus, Williams is still very young at 23. Through week 2 he sits at 4th the NFL in tackles, and has come up with some big plays. Everyone saw the dumb penalty in week 2, but other than that he has played well this season. He has the skills to end up being a good safety in the NFL, and remember he is still learning the position.
Kelvin Sheppard 3rd - Shep was OK in his time with Buffalo before being traded for Jerry Hughes. Wasn't the impact player the team needed him to be. He has seen some action this season with the Colts in both games this season, starting one of the two. Hughes has played 98 of 170 snaps so far with 0.5 sacks over the 2 games played.
Da'Norris Searcy 4th - Searcy has been a solid backup so far and has kicked it up this season filling in for Byrd. Still has too many ugly plays, but he has been a good value so far. Capable of some big hits, Searcy could end up a valuable 3rd safety if the Bills can sign Byrd to a long term contract.
Chris Hairston 5th - Hairston played very well filling in for Pears and Glenn, but hasn't been able to stay healthy yet. When he is though, he has executed some beautiful blocks that lead to big plays. He won't see any action this year, but if he can get healthy he has the potential to be a long term answer at RT.
Johnny White 6th - White was part of the search to find a solid 3rd RB but couldn't beat out Choice. He spent some time with the Packers last season, but isn't on an NFL roster at the moment.
Chris White 6th - Stuck around for a few seasons but saw little to no action, most of his snaps were on ST. Traded to the Lions for practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis then cut, White is now on the Patriots.
Justin Rogers 7th - Based on value, Rogers has outplayed where he was drafted. He has made a few big plays so far 3 years into his career, mostly as a reserve corner, and has 4 starts under his belt with 31 games played. Still developing, but looks like a decent dime back.
Michael Jasper 7th - Obscure gamble pick based on size/athleticism combo, though he hasn't displayed football toughness or any sort of consistency. Bounced around to a few teams but is currently a free agent.
This draft is looking better over time. The players that have stuck and contributed have improved over time. The early picks have been productive (Dareus, Williams) and some of the mid to late picks seem like they payed off.(Searcy, Rogers, Hairston) Pettine's scheme seems to have boosted the defensive picks from this class.
2012:
Stephon Gilmore 1st - Gilmore's play was exceptional for a rookie in 2012. He regularly covered the opposition's top WR every game, and looks like he can end up being a top CB in the league. 6th in PDef as a rookie with 16 on the season, Gilmore has displayed the ability to be an extremely well-rounded CB. Looks like a very good 1st round choice.
Cordy Glenn 2nd - Most analysts had Glenn kicking inside to play guard once reaching the NFL, but he has been nothing less than solid through the start of his career. He has been exceptional in pass protection so far in 2013, with some quality pass rushers barely getting to sniff Manuel. Also had a very good rookie campaign.
TJ Graham 3rd - Graham hasn't lived up to expectations, but he is still learning. A lot of wideouts take a few seasons to get it together in the NFL, and Graham also recently turned 24 so I'm not shocked he hasn't done all that much yet. Explosive athlete that still needs a good amount of work.
Nigel Bradham 4th - Bradham had a solid rookie showing with 11 starts, but there are some indications the new regime isn't a huge fan of him. Maybe it was from the arrest, but Moats has been getting more snaps. He is a physical freak, but needs work on his mental game. Explosive hitter with above average coverage skills. Extremely high ceiling.
Ron Brooks 4th - Brooks was buried behind some of the best CBs in college football during his time at LSU, but played very well when called upon. Brooks is quite the athlete, but is coming off his second foot injury in as many seasons. If he can regain his health, he is another young player who can end up a decent ST and sub package contributor.
Zebrie Sanders 5th - Sanders had a pretty good career at Florida State playing both tackle positions, but hip injuries derailed his NFL career. He looked to be a developmental swing tackle and a good value in the 5th, but he couldn't get healthy and was released before the start of the season.
Tank Carder 5th - Carder looked like a great value at this pick according to the "experts", but didn't stick with the Bills despite a lackluster LB corps. Found a roster spot with the Browns and has been with them since.
Mark Asper 6th - Developmental OT/OG prospect that bounced around to the Vikings and Jaguars before coming back to the Bills practice squad.
John Potter 7th - Big boot kicker that stuck around as a kickoff specialist for a while before being released in week 6. Currently kicking for the Redskins.
Gilmore and Glenn look like the two big hits of this draft, though it is still too early to tell. Bradham could end up a mainstay, but whether or not that happens is up to him and his commitment to the game and the team. Brooks has been on a roller coaster, but the potential is there. The rest of the draft was basically useless.
2013:
EJ Manuel 1st - This is the hardest pick to comment on, especially as a Bills fan. It is easy to pour your hopes and dreams into the shiny new QB, but I try to keep emotions aside when evaluating a player. I know I said it at the start, but I can't emphasize the importance of the youth factor enough. The Bills made a push to surround their rookie QB with talented weapons, but growing pains are imminent. If this young group can learn and improve together, Manuel could be a terror.
Robert Woods 2nd - How many 21 year old WRs get tagged with the label "polished"? Woods has been impressive so far, and as this young offense grows together, expect him to be a huge part of it. Woods and Stevie could be a lethal WR tandem for a long time. Woody seems to already have a connection with EJ.
Kiko Alonso 2nd - Playmaker. Alonso has had a big impact in his two games so far, registering 19 Tackles, 1 Sack, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR. Kiko played a huge part in the win over Carolina, and looks like he can be a very good linebacker in the NFL. He still needs work in quite a few aspects of his game, but has every chance to grow into a monster with this new scheme and talented personnel around him.
Marquise Goodwin 3rd - Another raw burner like Graham, we saw his freakish speed with the 108yd KR for a TD in preseason. Unfortunately he suffered a fractured hand that required surgery, but Goodwin is the type of player that can flourish in a WR group where DBs are forced to pay attention to Stevie and Woody. I'll be interested to see what he can do when he's back.
Duke Williams 4th - Limited action makes it hard to see what Duke will end up as in the NFL, but his college tape is exciting. Developmental player that should have a part in ST early on. Hits like a linebacker and has some ball skills. Only has 6 defensive snaps so far but he could see more action down the line.
Jonathan Meeks 5th - Developmental sub-package DB who hasn't played a regular season snap yet, but has been active for both games. Meeks has a good amount of college experience with decent production to go with it. Might not stick for long, but has the potential to be a contributor.
Dustin Hopkins 6th - Beat out long-time and much loved kicker Rian Lindell for the position and has displayed a powerful leg. Unfortunately he's currently injured, but looks like he could be a long term replacement.
Chris Gragg 7th - Developmental receiving TE with 4.5 speed. Yet to see any action, Gragg needs to work on blocking if he wants to get on the field. Good value at this point in the draft. Undersized, but could be a decent H-Back in time.
The first 3 picks look very good so far. I'm excited to see what Goodwin can do in this offense when he's healthy and teams are forced to put their attention on Stevie and Woody. T.J. and Goodwin are absolute burners.Hopefully they can develop into solid contributors because we know the athleticism is there. Every pick from this class made the team, but it is easy to be more optimistic about players with a small sample size to evaluate them on.
Overall, it looks like the drafts under Nix have been significantly better than they have in the painful years of picks like Maybin, Flowers, Williams, and Losman. He has also made some moves on the waiver wire grabbing quality players like Urbik, and helped bring in some of the best FA signings in franchise history, and also has locked up home grown talent like they haven't been able to in the past. Obviously all of that is a culmination of effort across the entire team, but those changes didn't start happening until Nix was given a good chunk of control. Discuss.
Before you read anything I have to say about these picks, understand that these are young guys still developing their craft. A lot of fans expect instant results from players that are learning the NFL game. We have been fortunate enough to recently have a few rookies establish themselves early on, but that can't be the expectation for most of the young crop. A lot of players take a few seasons to really live up to expectations, some positions have a tougher learning curve than others. Nothing is certain, but the combination of youth and talent they have put together over the past few seasons looks like the best they have had in a while. This is simply a viewpoint, not an evaluation that claims to be definitive. Buffalo is currently the 3rd youngest team in the NFL, and I know the word "potential" is overused and at times annoying to see, but this Bills team is in the position to grow together into a very good football team. Anyone paying attention can see their potential (lol i know right) but as with any team it comes down to execution. Onto the picks.
2010:
CJ Spiller 1st - Spiller has emerged as one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. Looks to be a very good pick. In 2012, Spiller was the 4th fastest player to reach 1,000 yds based on how many carries it took in NFL history. Exceptional pass-catcher considering he's a runningback. Fierce competitor and a home run threat on any play.
Torrell Troup 2nd - Injuries have sidelined Troup for most of his career thus far. Had the potential to be a decent rotational player, but wasn't able to recover from a back injury. Probably done in the NFL.
Alex Carrington 3rd - Carrington has developed into a very versatile defensive lineman and a big part of this Buffalo D, having played DE, DT, and OLB. Exceptional ST player (3 blocked FG in 2012 - franchise record), graded out as one of the best backup DL in the NFL in 2012 per PFF.com. "Megahand" was able to add around 20lbs since entering the league without sacrificing much athleticism at all. I think this is his contract year, and it would be in the team's best interest to extend him.
Marcus Easley 4th - Easley also battled injury early on, but this season had an exceptional preseason and has made a few big plays on special teams in the regular season. He beat out a few talented young UDFA WRs (Da'Rick Rogers - Once considered the best WR in the SEC before his troubles - Brandon Kaufman - Holder of the FCS single season receiving yards record with 1,850) to stick around again, but sits behind what looks to be a talented WR group.
Ed Wang 5th - Bad pick, but you don't expect much from the guys that are taken at this point in the draft. Wang bounced around the league for a bit, but currently isn't on an NFL roster.
Arthur Moats 6th - Winner of the Buck Buchanan award as the best defensive player in FCS (1-AA) Moats hasn't been able to find an identity yet in the league, having been moved around from inside to outside in a few different schemes. He looks like he's doing a little better in Pettine's new scheme.
Danny Batten 6th - Batten, like Moats, was a standout in the FCS (1-AA) that specialized in rushing the passer. He wasn't able to stick for long. Bad pick, but again this is late in the draft. Batten has been out of the NFL since his release.
Levi Brown 7th - Project QB that obviously didn't pan out. He tried making it in the CFL but wasn't able to stick.
Kyle Calloway 7th - Project OG, see above. Had a stint in the UFL and a few weeks with the Ravens.
Spiller and Carrington were obviously the best picks, with one ending up an elite NFL RB and the other an exceptionally versatile lineman. Easley and Moats look like they could be valuable backups and ST players, which is about what you would expect based on where they were taken. Outside of that, this was a poor draft.
2011:
Marcell Dareus 1st - Dareus has had some ups and downs, but has been dominant at times. Still coming into his own at just 23 years of age, Dareus has already shown enough to think he could end up being a real force in the NFL. In his 34 games played he has posted 12 sacks and 9 pass deflections. Anyone who watches games has seen him blow up run plays at times. Dareus has scary potential, and I think Pettine's scheme paired with the talent they have acquired will show what the "rolling ball of butcher knives" can do. (One of the best scout quotes I've heard, per PFW). Looks like he can end up worth the pick.
Aaron Williams 2nd - Williams struggled at times when playing CB, but the move to safety has shown to be a successful one so far. Like Dareus, Williams is still very young at 23. Through week 2 he sits at 4th the NFL in tackles, and has come up with some big plays. Everyone saw the dumb penalty in week 2, but other than that he has played well this season. He has the skills to end up being a good safety in the NFL, and remember he is still learning the position.
Kelvin Sheppard 3rd - Shep was OK in his time with Buffalo before being traded for Jerry Hughes. Wasn't the impact player the team needed him to be. He has seen some action this season with the Colts in both games this season, starting one of the two. Hughes has played 98 of 170 snaps so far with 0.5 sacks over the 2 games played.
Da'Norris Searcy 4th - Searcy has been a solid backup so far and has kicked it up this season filling in for Byrd. Still has too many ugly plays, but he has been a good value so far. Capable of some big hits, Searcy could end up a valuable 3rd safety if the Bills can sign Byrd to a long term contract.
Chris Hairston 5th - Hairston played very well filling in for Pears and Glenn, but hasn't been able to stay healthy yet. When he is though, he has executed some beautiful blocks that lead to big plays. He won't see any action this year, but if he can get healthy he has the potential to be a long term answer at RT.
Johnny White 6th - White was part of the search to find a solid 3rd RB but couldn't beat out Choice. He spent some time with the Packers last season, but isn't on an NFL roster at the moment.
Chris White 6th - Stuck around for a few seasons but saw little to no action, most of his snaps were on ST. Traded to the Lions for practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis then cut, White is now on the Patriots.
Justin Rogers 7th - Based on value, Rogers has outplayed where he was drafted. He has made a few big plays so far 3 years into his career, mostly as a reserve corner, and has 4 starts under his belt with 31 games played. Still developing, but looks like a decent dime back.
Michael Jasper 7th - Obscure gamble pick based on size/athleticism combo, though he hasn't displayed football toughness or any sort of consistency. Bounced around to a few teams but is currently a free agent.
This draft is looking better over time. The players that have stuck and contributed have improved over time. The early picks have been productive (Dareus, Williams) and some of the mid to late picks seem like they payed off.(Searcy, Rogers, Hairston) Pettine's scheme seems to have boosted the defensive picks from this class.
2012:
Stephon Gilmore 1st - Gilmore's play was exceptional for a rookie in 2012. He regularly covered the opposition's top WR every game, and looks like he can end up being a top CB in the league. 6th in PDef as a rookie with 16 on the season, Gilmore has displayed the ability to be an extremely well-rounded CB. Looks like a very good 1st round choice.
Cordy Glenn 2nd - Most analysts had Glenn kicking inside to play guard once reaching the NFL, but he has been nothing less than solid through the start of his career. He has been exceptional in pass protection so far in 2013, with some quality pass rushers barely getting to sniff Manuel. Also had a very good rookie campaign.
TJ Graham 3rd - Graham hasn't lived up to expectations, but he is still learning. A lot of wideouts take a few seasons to get it together in the NFL, and Graham also recently turned 24 so I'm not shocked he hasn't done all that much yet. Explosive athlete that still needs a good amount of work.
Nigel Bradham 4th - Bradham had a solid rookie showing with 11 starts, but there are some indications the new regime isn't a huge fan of him. Maybe it was from the arrest, but Moats has been getting more snaps. He is a physical freak, but needs work on his mental game. Explosive hitter with above average coverage skills. Extremely high ceiling.
Ron Brooks 4th - Brooks was buried behind some of the best CBs in college football during his time at LSU, but played very well when called upon. Brooks is quite the athlete, but is coming off his second foot injury in as many seasons. If he can regain his health, he is another young player who can end up a decent ST and sub package contributor.
Zebrie Sanders 5th - Sanders had a pretty good career at Florida State playing both tackle positions, but hip injuries derailed his NFL career. He looked to be a developmental swing tackle and a good value in the 5th, but he couldn't get healthy and was released before the start of the season.
Tank Carder 5th - Carder looked like a great value at this pick according to the "experts", but didn't stick with the Bills despite a lackluster LB corps. Found a roster spot with the Browns and has been with them since.
Mark Asper 6th - Developmental OT/OG prospect that bounced around to the Vikings and Jaguars before coming back to the Bills practice squad.
John Potter 7th - Big boot kicker that stuck around as a kickoff specialist for a while before being released in week 6. Currently kicking for the Redskins.
Gilmore and Glenn look like the two big hits of this draft, though it is still too early to tell. Bradham could end up a mainstay, but whether or not that happens is up to him and his commitment to the game and the team. Brooks has been on a roller coaster, but the potential is there. The rest of the draft was basically useless.
2013:
EJ Manuel 1st - This is the hardest pick to comment on, especially as a Bills fan. It is easy to pour your hopes and dreams into the shiny new QB, but I try to keep emotions aside when evaluating a player. I know I said it at the start, but I can't emphasize the importance of the youth factor enough. The Bills made a push to surround their rookie QB with talented weapons, but growing pains are imminent. If this young group can learn and improve together, Manuel could be a terror.
Robert Woods 2nd - How many 21 year old WRs get tagged with the label "polished"? Woods has been impressive so far, and as this young offense grows together, expect him to be a huge part of it. Woods and Stevie could be a lethal WR tandem for a long time. Woody seems to already have a connection with EJ.
Kiko Alonso 2nd - Playmaker. Alonso has had a big impact in his two games so far, registering 19 Tackles, 1 Sack, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR. Kiko played a huge part in the win over Carolina, and looks like he can be a very good linebacker in the NFL. He still needs work in quite a few aspects of his game, but has every chance to grow into a monster with this new scheme and talented personnel around him.
Marquise Goodwin 3rd - Another raw burner like Graham, we saw his freakish speed with the 108yd KR for a TD in preseason. Unfortunately he suffered a fractured hand that required surgery, but Goodwin is the type of player that can flourish in a WR group where DBs are forced to pay attention to Stevie and Woody. I'll be interested to see what he can do when he's back.
Duke Williams 4th - Limited action makes it hard to see what Duke will end up as in the NFL, but his college tape is exciting. Developmental player that should have a part in ST early on. Hits like a linebacker and has some ball skills. Only has 6 defensive snaps so far but he could see more action down the line.
Jonathan Meeks 5th - Developmental sub-package DB who hasn't played a regular season snap yet, but has been active for both games. Meeks has a good amount of college experience with decent production to go with it. Might not stick for long, but has the potential to be a contributor.
Dustin Hopkins 6th - Beat out long-time and much loved kicker Rian Lindell for the position and has displayed a powerful leg. Unfortunately he's currently injured, but looks like he could be a long term replacement.
Chris Gragg 7th - Developmental receiving TE with 4.5 speed. Yet to see any action, Gragg needs to work on blocking if he wants to get on the field. Good value at this point in the draft. Undersized, but could be a decent H-Back in time.
The first 3 picks look very good so far. I'm excited to see what Goodwin can do in this offense when he's healthy and teams are forced to put their attention on Stevie and Woody. T.J. and Goodwin are absolute burners.Hopefully they can develop into solid contributors because we know the athleticism is there. Every pick from this class made the team, but it is easy to be more optimistic about players with a small sample size to evaluate them on.
Overall, it looks like the drafts under Nix have been significantly better than they have in the painful years of picks like Maybin, Flowers, Williams, and Losman. He has also made some moves on the waiver wire grabbing quality players like Urbik, and helped bring in some of the best FA signings in franchise history, and also has locked up home grown talent like they haven't been able to in the past. Obviously all of that is a culmination of effort across the entire team, but those changes didn't start happening until Nix was given a good chunk of control. Discuss.