Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

[JohnnyGold]

I think we've all heard the stat: the Buffalo Bills haven't been to the playoffs in 13 years, the longest active streak in the NFL. And while that stat is awful enough to be appreciated on its own, I think there's something more important in that stat--the number of Bills fans that are simply too young to have any practical experience in knowing what a "playoff season" looks like. Consider: if you're 30 years old right now, you were only 17 the last time the Bills were in the playoffs. Assuming there are a large number of males aged 18-24 on this site, we can infer that most/some/a good percentage of posters here were 5 to 11 years old the last time the Bills made the playoffs--far too young to have an appropriate perspective on an NFL season.

I say this because of the number of times that I see things like "the Cincy game is now a must win", "looks like the season is over by October, again", and other threads/comments to that nature. Neither of those statements above are true, by the way, but the number of Bills fans that think it (or at least the numbers of posters on Bills message boards that think it) is amazing.

Last year the Bills finished 6-10--an awful season by any measure. But even in week FIFTEEN, at 5-8, on December 16th... we were playing for an outside shot at the playoffs.

What that means is that the road to the playoffs isn't paved with miracles, and only traveled by teams of destiny--it means that the 2 wild card slots are up for grabs, and whoever steps up and strings together a good December usually gets them. And what does that mean? It means that a team can be 4-7 and go on a 5 game run to steal a 6 seed.

And that's the thing that a lot of you young, (but now getting older) Bills fans who have never seen a playoff season don't realize: Good teams DO win 5 games in a row, or 6, or 7. And there's no telling when a team is going to "become" good. Yes, the Seahawks did last year, turning a 3-6 record into a 10-6 finish by winning 7 games in a row, but our very own Bills started 3-6 in 2004 and won 6 in a row themselves before losing the finale to drop to 9-7. Manuel may miss 4 games, and hell, we might be 2-7 when he returns.

But that doesn't mean the season is over. And if we lose this weekend, it's not over either.

[BillsImpossible]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

Good post. It is optimistic and realistic as well.

"The season is over," did not enter my mind until Friday morning and it just didn't feel right.

I don't think the season is over at all. The Bills defense has been playing too good to throw in the towel now.

Bills get their entire starting secondary back next week. Has that ever happened before in the NFL?

If my memory serves me correctly, I predicted the Bills to start the season 2-6 and finish the season at 10-6.

Manuel is going to be out for at least 4 weeks. If he misses more than 4 games, the Bills D and special teams will have to steal at least 2 wins.

Bengals
at Dolphins
at Saints
Chiefs

Even with a backup quarterback, I think the Bills win at least one of those games.

3-6 heading into week 10 against the Steelers at Heinz Field.

Win.

Jets (W) Bills split
BYE
Falcons in TO (L)
at Tampa (W)
at Jags (W)
Fish (W) Bills split
at Foxboro (W) Bills split

3-3 in the division

9-7 overall.

"NEVER GIVE UP, DON'T EVER GIVE UP."
Jimmy Valvano

[Jry44]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

It's tragic in the sense that the 4-6 games that Manuel is out are 4-6 games of live action that he will not have to develop and gain some pro experience. That hurts...

As for the potential playoff aspirations for this team..... sure. Anything can happen. However it's very unlikely. Jeff Tuel is just too raw at this point, and too limited physically to really be able to manage this team effectively to win some meaningful games in big situations. Obviously the defense is going to get better so we should be in games, however without the threat of a pass game CJ and Freddy are going to see 8 man fronts for the next month and a half. Not trying to knock the wind out of anyone sails or anything; I love optimism. I'm just trying to be realistic.

[BillsImpossible]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

It's tragic in the sense that the 4-6 games that Manuel is out are 4-6 games of live action that he will not have to develop and gain some pro experience. That hurts...

As for the potential playoff aspirations for this team..... sure. Anything can happen. However it's very unlikely. Jeff Tuel is just too raw at this point, and too limited physically....

Tuel is not physically limited, but I understand where you're coming from. He looks small on television.

He looks tiny on TV compared to EJ Manuel, but reality is Tuel stands 6'3 and weighs 221 lbs.

[JohnnyGold]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

It's tragic in the sense that the 4-6 games that Manuel is out are 4-6 games of live action that he will not have to develop and gain some pro experience. That hurts...

As for the potential playoff aspirations for this team..... sure. Anything can happen. However it's very unlikely. Jeff Tuel is just too raw at this point, and too limited physically to really be able to manage this team effectively to win some meaningful games in big situations. Obviously the defense is going to get better so we should be in games, however without the threat of a pass game CJ and Freddy are going to see 8 man fronts for the next month and a half. Not trying to knock the wind out of anyone sails or anything; I love optimism. I'm just trying to be realistic.

And I see where you're coming from, but something to keep in mind:

There are other ways to score in football games--2 punt returns by the browns on thursday night showed us that.

Don't get me wrong, in no way am I saying or predicting that the Bills will get 14 points a game from their punt/kick return units over the next 8 games...What I am saying, though, is that "you never know". Maybe Tuel comes in and we go 2-2 over the next 4. Hey, even 1-3 would leave us at 3-6, which leaves 10-6 in play.

[The Jokeman]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

And I see where you're coming from, but something to keep in mind:

There are other ways to score in football games--2 punt returns by the browns on thursday night showed us that.

Don't get me wrong, in no way am I saying or predicting that the Bills will get 14 points a game from their punt/kick return units over the next 8 games...What I am saying, though, is that "you never know". Maybe Tuel comes in and we go 2-2 over the next 4. Hey, even 1-3 would leave us at 3-6, which leaves 10-6 in play.

The offense has struggled mightily with Manuel in there I don't expect it to get better or being close to being the same with Tuel. I think we'd be lucky to win 1 of the next 4 games without Manuel.

[feldspar]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

I think we've all heard the stat: the Buffalo Bills haven't been to the playoffs in 13 years, the longest active streak in the NFL. And while that stat is awful enough to be appreciated on its own, I think there's something more important in that stat--the number of Bills fans that are simply too young to have any practical experience in knowing what a "playoff season" looks like. Consider: if you're 30 years old right now, you were only 17 the last time the Bills were in the playoffs. Assuming there are a large number of males aged 18-24 on this site, we can infer that most/some/a good percentage of posters here were 5 to 11 years old the last time the Bills made the playoffs--far too young to have an appropriate perspective on an NFL season.

I say this because of the number of times that I see things like "the Cincy game is now a must win", "looks like the season is over by October, again", and other threads/comments to that nature. Neither of those statements above are true, by the way, but the number of Bills fans that think it (or at least the numbers of posters on Bills message boards that think it) is amazing.

Last year the Bills finished 6-10--an awful season by any measure. But even in week FIFTEEN, at 5-8, on December 16th... we were playing for an outside shot at the playoffs.

What that means is that the road to the playoffs isn't paved with miracles, and only traveled by teams of destiny--it means that the 2 wild card slots are up for grabs, and whoever steps up and strings together a good December usually gets them. And what does that mean? It means that a team can be 4-7 and go on a 5 game run to steal a 6 seed.

And that's the thing that a lot of you young, (but now getting older) Bills fans who have never seen a playoff season don't realize: Good teams DO win 5 games in a row, or 6, or 7. And there's no telling when a team is going to "become" good. Yes, the Seahawks did last year, turning a 3-6 record into a 10-6 finish by winning 7 games in a row, but our very own Bills started 3-6 in 2004 and won 6 in a row themselves before losing the finale to drop to 9-7. Manuel may miss 4 games, and hell, we might be 2-7 when he returns.

But that doesn't mean the season is over. And if we lose this weekend, it's not over either.

I don't know where you dream this crap up. Bills fans are generally football fans...if they weren't football fans, then they wouldn't be Bills fans. Therefore, even the younger crowd sees how other teams make the playoffs every year, unless they are complete idiots. There is no kind of tunnel-vision where people are incapable of seeing what else happens in the league just because the Bills haven't been making the playoffs. We are not talking about rocket science here. If you aren't aware of the bigger picture, then you really have no idea how the Bills fit into it anyway...which makes somebody like that's opinion on which teams are good horse**** in the first place.

The season isn't over for ANYBODY at this point, not even the Jaguars. But anybody that follows the game knows that they have absolutely zero chance at making the playoffs.

My point is that the Bills aren't good enough to climb out of any sizable hole. They already lost 2 division games. Losing our questionable rookie QB leaves us with a complete longshot at the most important position in all sports for a stretch. It's not looking good. Realistically, the Bills are vying for a Wildcard at best, and if you look at what's happening in the AFC, that's a longshot at best.

There is some perspective for you, and I've been following the Bills since the mid-to-late Seventies.

You are under the influence of homerism of the most delusional kind if you think that these next couple of few games are losable if the Bills hope to make the playoffs.

[Typ0]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

I am OLD and I thought the opener was a must win game if this team was going to even sniff at the playoffs....season over.

[Mace]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

I'm not much bothered or surprised to date. I expected 8-8 and still expect 8-8 in an on the job training year.

I still get frustrated and aggravated sometimes but then I fall back to realist. It is what it is.

[JohnnyGold]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

I don't know where you dream this crap up. Bills fans are generally football fans...if they weren't football fans, then they wouldn't be Bills fans. Therefore, even the younger crowd sees how other teams make the playoffs every year, unless they are complete idiots. There is no kind of tunnel-vision where people are incapable of seeing what else happens in the league just because the Bills haven't been making the playoffs. We are not talking about rocket science here. If you aren't aware of the bigger picture, then you really have no idea how the Bills fit into it anyway...which makes somebody like that's opinion on which teams are good horse**** in the first place.

The season isn't over for ANYBODY at this point, not even the Jaguars. But anybody that follows the game knows that they have absolutely zero chance at making the playoffs.

My point is that the Bills aren't good enough to climb out of any sizable hole. They already lost 2 division games. Losing our questionable rookie QB leaves us with a complete longshot at the most important position in all sports for a stretch. It's not looking good. Realistically, the Bills are vying for a Wildcard at best, and if you look at what's happening in the AFC, that's a longshot at best.

There is some perspective for you, and I've been following the Bills since the mid-to-late Seventies.

You are under the influence of homerism of the most delusional kind if you think that these next couple of few games are losable if the Bills hope to make the playoffs.

just curious, but how do you view the new england patriots?

[feldspar]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

just curious, but how do you view the new england patriots?

I hate them.

[Jry44]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

And I see where you're coming from, but something to keep in mind:

There are other ways to score in football games--2 punt returns by the browns on thursday night showed us that.

Don't get me wrong, in no way am I saying or predicting that the Bills will get 14 points a game from their punt/kick return units over the next 8 games...What I am saying, though, is that "you never know". Maybe Tuel comes in and we go 2-2 over the next 4. Hey, even 1-3 would leave us at 3-6, which leaves 10-6 in play.

We've gotten 1 TD in the first 5 games from our defense and special teams. To expect them to get more than that over the course of the next 6 is very unrealistic. If you can't show a defense that you're capable of being more than one dimensional in today's NFL you pretty much don't have an offense at all. I agree that you never know, but realistically to say that the outlook for this team for the next month and a half is bleak is putting it pretty lightly.

[Jry44]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

Tuel is not physically limited, but I understand where you're coming from. He looks small on television.

He looks tiny on TV compared to EJ Manuel, but reality is Tuel stands 6'3 and weighs 221 lbs.

Physically in the sense of arm strength. I understand that Kevin Kolb was signed to be our veteren back up, however I feel like Whaley and/or Marrone should have done more to acquire and keep a veteran back up QB on the roster after Kolb went down. You're playing with fire in keeping and undrafted rookie FA is your only other game day QB. Especially with the way that EJ takes hits.

[JohnnyGold]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

I hate them.

right, but im wondering how you view them in relation to the rest of the nfl, and in a historical context.

one of the best teams ever?

[feldspar]

Re: Some perspective on this season and why the Manuel injury isn't tragic

right, but im wondering how you view them in relation to the rest of the nfl, and in a historical context.

one of the best teams ever?

Well, I'm not sure why you are asking me this...

But I'm not so sure they are one of the best "teams" ever, but they have one of the best quarterbacks ever and one of the best coaches ever, and that's what it takes in today's NFL to be perennial contenders. The concept of "team" used to mean a lot more in the old days before free agency. Today, you need a QB to drive the team and a coach to adapt to the ever-changing elements, and the Patriots have that. Not that you didn't need that before, but it's a different game today. The Patriots have the formula for success based on those two factors: coach and QB, so I'd say that they are definitely up there. You can't sustain success in the modern era without those two things.

What can I say? The proof is in the pudding...that's what they say. I'm not going to write a book here...