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Bills fans got what we expected last week – a hard fought game and a loss. Now the Bills head to Miami to take on a rested 3-2 Dolphins team. I really like the Bills match-up in this one, more so than any other game this year. The defense will give the Bills a chance to win this game but the offense needs to execute when given field position. Enjoy!
Quarterback:
Thad Lewis finished with a 100.5 QBR against the top 10 Bengals D. To put that in perspective Tom Brady had a rating of 52.2 the week before. Ryan Tannehill has been mostly impressive this season, he’s been accurate with the exception of throwing to Mike Wallace the two of them have yet to find their synchronicity. It’s also worth noting that Tannehill struggles most when throwing between the hash marks. Until we see if Thad can better last weeks performance = DolphinsRyan Tannehill = 114/182, 1383 yards, 62.2%, 6TD/5INT, QBR 85.5
Thad Lewis = 19/32, 216 yards, 59.4%, 2TD, QBR 100.5
Running back:
The Miami Dolphins have one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, averaging just 69.6 yards per game. Interesting though, they have 5 rushing TD’s which ranks them tied for 8th. This is directly tied to Tannehill inability to find receivers in the middle of the field, when the Dolphins get close their looking sideline pass or run. Lamar Miller has speed and can surprise you but the Dolphins are not going to be grinding this one out = BillsCJ Spiller = 84/351 yards, 4.2YPC, 1TD
Lamar Miller = 50/211 yards, 4.2YPC, 2TD
Wide Receivers/Tight ends:
Brian Hartline has continued to be a very reliable target and has made up for Mike Wallace’s lack of production. But it’s Fullback Charles Clay who becomes the focal point in this game, Clay has been targeted 31x and becomes a legitimate threat when catching out of the backfield, Clay leads all Dolphin receivers with 148 yards after the catch. Wallce and Brandon Gibson also deserve respect and I think the multiple options for Tannehill spreads the Bills secondary too thin. =DolphinsBrian Hartline = 25/332, 2TD
Charles Clay = 23/297, 2TD
Robert Woods = 18/274, 2TD
Stevie Johnson = 20/254, 2TD
Oline:
Miami is second in the league in sacks allowed , when you consider they’ve played one less game than the leader, they’re the leagues worst (24). That’s just about 10% of their offensive plays ending in a sack. If you have a number in the 90’s you need to be licking your chops this week. = BillsDline/LBers:
The Bills are still sitting in the top 3 for sacks, but are still in the bottom of the league against the run, allowing 124 yards per game. The Dolphins are tough against the run, and struggle against the pass. From what I have seen their LB’s really struggle in pass coverage. Bills RB’s and TE could exploit this. Kiko Alonso needs to be locked onto Charles Clay and neutralize the YAC. Because the Bills pass rush is so effective and the Dolphins Oline struggles I give the Bills the upper hand here. = BillsKiko Alonso = 66 Tackles, 1 sack, 4INT
Marcell Dareus = 28 Tackles, 4 sacks
Dannell Ellerbe = 40 tackles
Philip Wheeler – 35 Tackles, .5 sacks
Defensive backs:
Was I the only one who thought watching Stephon Gilmore was painful last week? Gilmore might be the most physical corner in the NFL, playing one handed left him way off his game, but you have to appreciate his guts to get out there and play. Jairus Byrd was sprinkled in and expect we will see even more of him this week. The Dolphins secondary of Brent Grimes, Reshad Jones, Chris Clemons and Dimitri Patterson (back from injury) is a solid group, but they have shown an inability to contend with speedy receivers allowing 456 yards to speedsters in their last 4 games. Marques Goodwin and TJ Graham could require extra attention opening up the middle of the field for Stevie Johnson. = BillsDa’Norris Searcy = 49 Tackles, 2 sacks
Aaron Williams = 34 Tackles, 2INT
Reshad Jones = 31 Tackles, .5 sacks, 1INT
Dimitri Patterson = 2 Tackles, 2INT
Coaching:
I like Joe Philbin as a head coach, but he’s yet to strike any of that magic he found in Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. The Dolphins made a huge splash in free agency and sometimes when you overhaul a team it can be tough to find chemistry/consistency. That’s where the Dolphins are now. They’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for Buffalo so that gives them the advantage. But based on the overall match-up I really like the Bills. = DolphinsJoe Philbin = 10-11 (1-1 vs Buffalo)
Doug Marrone = 2-4
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