Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

[jimmifli]

These graphs show the probability of winning given the current score, possession, down & distance and time remaining.

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55838&week=1

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55856&week=2

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55886&week=4

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55900&week=5

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55916&week=6

http://live.advancednflstats.com/weekly.php?gameid2=55935&week=7

These stats lead to interesting strategies like this:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/dolphins-should-have-intentionally

Leading by a point, the MIA defense was on its heals as BUF drove into FG range with less than 3 minutes to play. With all 3 timeouts, MIA must have been feeling pretty good about its chances of getting the ball back with some time to retake the lead.

BUF ran the ball, forcing MIA to use its timeouts. With one timeout remaining and 2:37 to play, BUF faced a 3rd and 4 at the MIA 28. BUF ran the ball for a 10-yard gain, earning a fresh set of downs and forcing MIA to use its last timeout.


At this point, MIA would have preferred to allow BUF to score a TD. The odds favored scoring a TD of their own in response. Accordingly, BUF should have preferred to take a knee rather than score then.

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

Statistical posts are like the coolest things ever.

[jimmifli]

Re: Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

Statistical posts are like the coolest things ever.

Just look at the probability of a Bills win after Mario's sack and Fred's first down. Or don't if you're still at work that NSFW for some people.

[stuckincincy]

Re: Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

Statistical posts are like the coolest things ever.

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

Just look at the probability of a Bills win after Mario's sack and Fred's first down. Or don't if you're still at work that NSFW for some people.

then I will wait until after I do the gym thing and get home

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Re: Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

That's now one of my favorite quotes ever.

In any event, even though it's the correct option it takes a very very bold coach to intentionally forfeit a td. And on top of that, they'd have to let buffalo gain almost 20 yards to do it without them realizing what was happening.

[JohnnyGold]

Re: Statistical Evidence Being a Bills Fan is Stressful!

That's now one of my favorite quotes ever.

In any event, even though it's the correct option it takes a very very bold coach to intentionally forfeit a td. And on top of that, they'd have to let buffalo gain almost 20 yards to do it without them realizing what was happening.

there are many many many scenarios during a football game that i think a team should do something but the coach opts for a "safe" or "conventional" strategy.

Maybe it's just because I grew up playing video games, but to my mind, the truly "revolutionary" nfl coach will not be someone like chip kelly, that comes in claiming he's going to revolutionize an offense, but it will be a veteran coach with nothing to lose who throws caution to the wind and starts doing things like:

go for 2 point conversions every single time if you are ahead
use 2 or 3 quarterbacks a game for different reasons--running, deep balls, intermediate routes: have them just as much a part of your sub package as your running backs
game plan for four downs of football every time you cross your 35 yard line--no punting from there
let teams score tds late in games to get the ball back
if you are inside your own 10 yard line, send your wideouts on go routes, but intentionally hold the d linemen, do it 5 or 6 times to get the defensive backfield winded, (youre only losing yardage "half distance to the goal) then run a screen pass
and on and on