Bills Analytics Department?

[ghz in pittsburgh]

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Bills-launch-analytics-department-with-hire-of-Lyons/3bf96f90-a18a-4845-aaae-2d20cc83d72b

So it is spreaded to all 3 areas of football, business, and marketing strategy.

Let's see what they come up with how much Byrd is worth.

[Night Train]

It's like company time tracking... Justify every toilet flush.


I understand the so-called premise of the exercise but it screams 2 things.

1. Budget at the ground floor, with the primary profit figure of the business being protected.
2. Always having to justify your job, regardless of performance. The human element is removed.

I've been through this a couple times. I can tell you morale is always short term and turnover is blind.

[DraftBoy]

It's like company time tracking... Justify every toilet flush.


I understand the so-called premise of the exercise but it screams 2 things.

1. Budget at the ground floor, with the primary profit figure of the business being protected.
2. Always having to justify your job, regardless of performance. The human element is removed.

I've been through this a couple times. I can tell you morale is always short term and turnover is blind.

Analytics are often an expensive endeavor to undertake, especially year round. Not sure if the first point makes sense short term. If in the end the department allows to find bargain FA's who can produce as a lesser cost is that really a bad thing?

[Pinkerton Security]

Analytics are often an expensive endeavor to undertake, especially year round. Not sure if the first point makes sense short term. If in the end the department allows to find bargain FA's who can produce as a lesser cost is that really a bad thing?

yeah, I would hate it as far as a business process goes but in the NFL, you ALWAYS have to justify your job. If you're not producing, you're going to get cut/traded/etc, so I agree, it should allow us to ensure everyone is playing up to their contract when compared to other available options.

[Historian]

DOUG: "Russ, Do we sign Byrd?"

RUSS: "Rock...Paper...Scissors..."

[DynaPaul]

I got the feeling from reading the release that this is biased more towards the business end than it is towards player performance and compensation. They're going to be looking at shaving off certain things, like the length of a hot dog for example, to save cash and increase profitability while searching for statistical trends. That's not exactly what I had in mind when they said they were forming an analytics department.

[DraftBoy]

yeah, I would hate it as far as a business process goes but in the NFL, you ALWAYS have to justify your job. If you're not producing, you're going to get cut/traded/etc, so I agree, it should allow us to ensure everyone is playing up to their contract when compared to other available options.

That's how my job runs (not on analytics but on production) and I love it!

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Hopefully the analytics department warns them not to point inside the opponents 40 and other wise moves.

[Victor7]

Wonder if this means even more cheapness when it comes to players. Hope not.

[BuffaloRedleg]

Hopefully they don't think this will be able to be of great use evaluating players. It is almost impossible to isolate player performance in football making player analytics neat but not nearly as useful as in baseball.

They are pretty useful in making gameday decisions, so we'll see.

[WagonCircler]

...and he just happens to be from Rochester, where Brandon went to college.

I'm sure there's no one better qualified in the entire world than one of Russ Brandon's cronies.

[Typ0]

I have worked with analytics for years. It's a big scary word but quite simple really. It means we are going to keep track of our decision making process and outcomes in a quantifiable way. We then are going to use that information about the past to leverage against our decisions in the future. If you don't do this all the knowledge in an organization exists and is influenced by the brains in the organization. Well brains can only process so much, they are prone to influence and they need good information to form sound decisions.

If you are trying to compete with organizations that are using analytics and you aren't they have a competitive advantage. They are inherently getting more bang for the bucks they spend because they are building this knowledge base.

[Typ0]

Hopefully they don't think this will be able to be of great use evaluating players. It is almost impossible to isolate player performance in football making player analytics neat but not nearly as useful as in baseball.

They are pretty useful in making gameday decisions, so we'll see.

The thing is you don't look for a be all that ends all model when doing analysis. The reality is if a business you are competing with in the marketplace can get a 1% increase in performance they build momentum that chips away at your market share. The same could be said about player evaluation. If the PATS are 1% better because they are using analytics that minute percentage keeps them on top. If we want to overtake them we need to employ analytics and do it better than them or we are going no where. I don't get the bashing of analytics...it's an attempt to win any way you look at it.

[BuffaloRedleg]

The thing is you don't look for a be all that ends all model when doing analysis. The reality is if a business you are competing with in the marketplace can get a 1% increase in performance they build momentum that chips away at your market share. The same could be said about player evaluation. If the PATS are 1% better because they are using analytics that minute percentage keeps them on top. If we want to overtake them we need to employ analytics and do it better than them or we are going no where. I don't get the bashing of analytics...it's an attempt to win any way you look at it.

I agree to an extent. It is extremely difficult to assess whether or not that 1% increase is due to something that has nothing to do with your analysis.

How would you know whether you are better because you are doing better at analytics or if it was just because EJ got better?

It's just too difficult in football with the sample size being so small and the difficulty of isolating things to establish causal relationships.

Like I said though, it is important for when deciding to go for it on 4th and 1 on the opponents 40 yard line or other sorts of gametime decisions.

In general I've grown away from model analysis in many aspects of life (especially the market). Nassim Taleb made sure of that.

[coastal]

I hate Russ Brandon.

[Mace]

...and he just happens to be from Rochester, where Brandon went to college.

I'm sure there's no one better qualified in the entire world than one of Russ Brandon's cronies.

I'm with you on that one.

I sort of get the concept of an analytics dept if dubious, but my thought is that you hire an expert on sports metrics, not Xerox business metrics. If it's not pertinent you just hired a guy to dork around with pie charts and numbers every day and stretch to make them relevant for a gee whiz dazzle factor that has nothing to do with a crap besides Xerox last 50 metrics assertions to whoever uses Xerox to compile metrics assertions in their business. (I'm sort of dubious on this one too)

I worked in IT, they put huge stock in BS degrees, so my boss hired a Biology grad or something from college instead of the 3 applicants with experience in IT. It didn't work out well.

[WagonCircler]

I'm with you on that one.

I sort of get the concept of an analytics dept if dubious, but my thought is that you hire an expert on sports metrics, not Xerox business metrics. If it's not pertinent you just hired a guy to dork around with pie charts and numbers every day and stretch to make them relevant for a gee whiz dazzle factor that has nothing to do with a crap besides Xerox last 50 metrics assertions to whoever uses Xerox to compile metrics assertions in their business. (I'm sort of dubious on this one too)

I worked in IT, they put huge stock in BS degrees, so my boss hired a Biology grad or something from college instead of the 3 applicants with experience in IT. It didn't work out well.

In a way, it makes perfect sense. It has long felt like the Bills are actually only interested in perpetuating the illusion of progress, rather than committing to the real pursuit of winning a championship.

This fits--carrying on Ralph's legacy of surrounding himself with people with whom he's personally comfortable.

[YardRat]

I agree to an extent. It is extremely difficult to assess whether or not that 1% increase is due to something that has nothing to do with your analysis.

How would you know whether you are better because you are doing better at analytics or if it was just because EJ got better?

It's just too difficult in football with the sample size being so small and the difficulty of isolating things to establish causal relationships.

Like I said though, it is important for when deciding to go for it on 4th and 1 on the opponents 40 yard line or other sorts of gametime decisions.

In general I've grown away from model analysis in many aspects of life (especially the market). Nassim Taleb made sure of that.

If they were using analytics during the actual game, they would have gone for two instead of one after their last TD, because that's what 'the book' says to do. I'm OK with analytics off the field, even when applying it to player acquisition, retention, etc, but it has no place on game day.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

If they were using analytics during the actual game, they would have gone for two instead of one after their last TD, because that's what 'the book' says to do. I'm OK with analytics off the field, even when applying it to player acquisition, retention, etc, but it has no place on game day.

Wait, are you saying kicking the xp was the right call when we scored to go down by 12?

[Typ0]

That's not the 1% I am referring to though. The 1% I am talking about is a very small increase in the performance of your decision due to using past data better. If you can do just a little better at what you are doing and you don't chose to go that route and your competition does you are screwed.


I agree to an extent. It is extremely difficult to assess whether or not that 1% increase is due to something that has nothing to do with your analysis.

How would you know whether you are better because you are doing better at analytics or if it was just because EJ got better?

It's just too difficult in football with the sample size being so small and the difficulty of isolating things to establish causal relationships.

Like I said though, it is important for when deciding to go for it on 4th and 1 on the opponents 40 yard line or other sorts of gametime decisions.

In general I've grown away from model analysis in many aspects of life (especially the market). Nassim Taleb made sure of that.

[DesertFox24]

In terms of football player evaluations they are going to look at things like where to take players etc...

Do you take a rb in the first round when you can get just as good of production from later round backs.

Or most pro bowl OL DT are first rounders.

Also they will look at other stats in terms of salary cap and where is it best to put your money etc...

I have no problem with this, it is not like they are the decision makers they will just provide information to the football people and over time they will develop more data about their recommendations and see what works or not.

For example if their is RB bills really want in the first round and the pass on a later round rb they will look over the next three years and see how the guy in the first they passed did against other rbs taken in later rounds. Etc..

I think in three years is when we start to see this new department really start having some solid input and information Doug, Dough, Russ, take to heart.

[Victor7]

I hate Russ Brandon.

Sup E ??


I hate him too.

[Mouldsie]

In terms of football player evaluations they are going to look at things like where to take players etc...

Do you take a rb in the first round when you can get just as good of production from later round backs.

Or most pro bowl OL DT are first rounders.

Also they will look at other stats in terms of salary cap and where is it best to put your money etc...

I have no problem with this, it is not like they are the decision makers they will just provide information to the football people and over time they will develop more data about their recommendations and see what works or not.

For example if their is RB bills really want in the first round and the pass on a later round rb they will look over the next three years and see how the guy in the first they passed did against other rbs taken in later rounds. Etc..

I think in three years is when we start to see this new department really start having some solid input and information Doug, Dough, Russ, take to heart.
Analytics can still be biased though, especially in Football.

How are they determining whether the RB or DE was successful? Games played? Pro Bowls? Are either of those relevant?
Rush yards? Sacks? Do those tell you a player is more elite than another? Not always.
YPC? Horrible stat.
Pressures? Maybe.

How does analytics account for the fact that a RB has a **** OL or that a DE gets double teamed every play?
How does analytics account for scheme? Injury? Matchups?

I can see it's usefulness in game-day management and to a degree with salary cap management though.

[Mouldsie]

And maybe give you tie breakers when it comes to evaluation.... if you notice that there is a correlation over a decade between short shuttle time and sacks and you have two players graded similarly maybe you go with the guy who wins at short shuttle time

[Skooby]

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Bills-launch-analytics-department-with-hire-of-Lyons/3bf96f90-a18a-4845-aaae-2d20cc83d72b

So it is spreaded to all 3 areas of football, business, and marketing strategy.

Let's see what they come up with how much Byrd is worth.

BAD.

[trapezeus]

if the numbers don't show that brandon should be gone, then the model doesn't work. That's step one.

[K-Gun]

I got the feeling from reading the release that this is biased more towards the business end than it is towards player performance and compensation. They're going to be looking at shaving off certain things, like the length of a hot dog for example, to save cash and increase profitability while searching for statistical trends. That's not exactly what I had in mind when they said they were forming an analytics department.

Here's the thing, if its true that Ralph's profit margin is way less than 10% of total opperating costs, so much so that signing Levirtre and Bryd long term would have skrank a 12 million profit margin to 2 million, then we better ****ing find cost savings in the opeational budget outside of areas affecting player and coaching salaries.

[K-Gun]

In a way, it makes perfect sense. It has long felt like the Bills are actually only interested in perpetuating the illusion of progress, rather than committing to the real pursuit of winning a championship.

This fits--carrying on Ralph's legacy of surrounding himself with people with whom he's personally comfortable.

Unless the Bills organization is pissing away 10 or 20 million on frivolous **** that can be cut and reinvested in player salary. That's the main reason you hire a guy like this, to find ways to cut costs so that more money can be spent in necessary areas.

I'm not saying its going to work and that anything will necessarily change, but if any new owner is going to take advantage of the full salary cap in Buffalo where profit margins are relativly low, then you better get lean in non-football areas.

[WagonCircler]

Unless the Bills organization is pissing away 10 or 20 million on frivolous **** that can be cut and reinvested in player salary. That's the main reason you hire a guy like this, to find ways to cut costs so that more money can be spent in necessary areas.

I'm not saying its going to work and that anything will necessarily change, but if any new owner is going to take advantage of the full salary cap in Buffalo where profit margins are relativly low, then you better get lean in non-football areas.

You miss my point, entirely.

I have no problem hiring an analytics guy. I have a huge problem with hiring a guy from a company that's on the verge of extinction who just happens to have connections in Russ ****** Brandon's circle. The guy apparently has no practical sports experience. He has proven absolutely nothing in the way of being qualified.

If you're looking for a football Billy Beane, you need to start with the football part.

The rest of the business is nickel and dime sh--t that amount to nothing.

[K-Gun]

You miss my point, entirely.

I have no problem hiring an analytics guy. I have a huge problem with hiring a guy from a company that's on the verge of extinction who just happens to have connections in Russ ****** Brandon's circle. The guy apparently has no practical sports experience. He has proven absolutely nothing in the way of being qualified.

If you're looking for a football Billy Beane, you need to start with the football part.

The rest of the business is nickel and dime sh--t that amount to nothing.

valid

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Analytics can still be biased though, especially in Football.

How are they determining whether the RB or DE was successful? Games played? Pro Bowls? Are either of those relevant?
Rush yards? Sacks? Do those tell you a player is more elite than another? Not always.
YPC? Horrible stat.
Pressures? Maybe.

How does analytics account for the fact that a RB has a **** OL or that a DE gets double teamed every play?
How does analytics account for scheme? Injury? Matchups?

I can see it's usefulness in game-day management and to a degree with salary cap management though.

Any deeper use of analytics won't use traditional stats, they will create new stats with plays weighted accordingly. For example, Football Outsiders will rate a 3 yard run on 3rd and 2 higher than a 10 yard run on 3rd and 15 for obvious reasons. Not every yard is made equal. If you want to see one example of how it can be done, it's explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods)

[OpIv37]

Here's why I hate this:


“It’s another layer of information,” said Brandon. “Really it is just another spoke in the wheel of providing as much quality in depth information we can to make informed decisions across all of our business platforms. The main focus will be football at this point and we’ll layer that in as we move forward. The whole concept will be bringing the analytics element to everything that we do.”



What a load of business bull****. This is typical corporate-speak: put a bunch of big words together in a random order that makes no logical sense, and no one will question it because they are afraid of appearing too dumb to understand. It's talking without saying anything- the type of **** that suits do to justify their own jobs and lofty salaries.

Oh and it's another way to buy time with no results. "I know we still aren't winning by our analytical department is only 2 years old and we are just starting to get enough data to make meaningful conclusions. Wait til you see how things improve over the next two years..."

[Mace]

In a way, it makes perfect sense. It has long felt like the Bills are actually only interested in perpetuating the illusion of progress, rather than committing to the real pursuit of winning a championship.

This fits--carrying on Ralph's legacy of surrounding himself with people with whom he's personally comfortable.

Well, I don't know I'd take it that far. More so I'd say Brandon figures he thought of a "gee-whiz" idea, got all excited and advanced it with an impulse buy.

Checking out at the store....hm.....physical fitness is essential to sports, more so on a professional level, and by golly, I'm a guy who runs a professional team and has a hat to wear at face time photo ops for guys that run professional teams ! Say....that headline says you can live to be 500 on McDonalds fries....you have to be physically fit to live to be 500, I will buy that National Enquirer and research it. Yes Yes, I see, I must hire a clown who can make fries !

[Skooby]

Here's the thing, if its true that Ralph's profit margin is way less than 10% of total opperating costs, so much so that signing Levirtre and Bryd long term would have skrank a 12 million profit margin to 2 million, then we better ****ing find cost savings in the opeational budget outside of areas affecting player and coaching salaries.

We're overpaying our staff obviously because we've failed to even potentially earn a championship for 13 years in a row. I say we pay the staff more money for wins & deduct for losses, you'd be suprised on how our performance would improve.

Want to make some extra money for the team? Take the old man's name off the door & get paid for naming rights, split be damned. We could also tie-in with that company for other advertising that stays in house. How about Toyota Field or GM park, would that be so bad? If they build a new stadium, then the price of the rights change & so does the deal.

Bills aren't running this business to win, they're running it to survive. Right now, there's not enough margins to make the team attractive. 3rd least profitable team, Dallas makes ~20 times what the Bills do. Follow their model a little closer, starting with a new stadium. We can build so much more around the waterfront than what's there now.

[WagonCircler]

Right now, there's not enough margins to make the team attractive. 3rd least profitable team, Dallas makes ~20 times what the Bills do..

That's kind of like being the 3rd least attractive Victoria's Secret model. The NFL is WILDLY profitable. Thanks to the monopoly and the TV contracts, you can make money by accident.

The notion that the team is not an attractive investment is insane.

Ralph's $25,000 investment is now worth nearly $1 BIL. And it show no sign of stopping.

Here's a list of better investments:

1.

[Historian]

Maybe Brandon figures this guy can trade a left tackle for a power hitting DH?

The reason this will not work, is because that hitter is mono a mono against a pitcher. (or visa versa)

A very measurable stat.

You can't measure a football player by himself because he is completely dependent on the other ten guys out there at any given time.

It's the ultimate team game.

If that were the case, OJ would have been traded way before 1973.

[pmoon6]

Maybe Brandon figures this guy can trade a left tackle for a power hitting DH?

The reason this will not work, is because that hitter is mono a mono against a pitcher. (or visa versa)

A very measurable stat.

You can't measure a football player by himself because he is completely dependent on the other ten guys out there at any given time.

It's the ultimate team game.

If that were the case, OJ would have been traded way before 1973.That was the case in 1973, but is not true since 2000. It's a QB league with the illusion that the other 21 players on the field are all that important.

[bf1]

E=mc2 / pir2 = bills suck for 14 years / spending far below cap

[K-Gun]

We're overpaying our staff obviously because we've failed to even potentially earn a championship for 13 years in a row. I say we pay the staff more money for wins & deduct for losses, you'd be suprised on how our performance would improve.

Want to make some extra money for the team? Take the old man's name off the door & get paid for naming rights, split be damned. We could also tie-in with that company for other advertising that stays in house. How about Toyota Field or GM park, would that be so bad? If they build a new stadium, then the price of the rights change & so does the deal.

Bills aren't running this business to win, they're running it to survive. Right now, there's not enough margins to make the team attractive. 3rd least profitable team, Dallas makes ~20 times what the Bills do. Follow their model a little closer, starting with a new stadium. We can build so much more around the waterfront than what's there now.

How about Yahoo Park? New Era Field?

[Mace]

Any deeper use of analytics won't use traditional stats, they will create new stats with plays weighted accordingly. For example, Football Outsiders will rate a 3 yard run on 3rd and 2 higher than a 10 yard run on 3rd and 15 for obvious reasons. Not every yard is made equal. If you want to see one example of how it can be done, it's explained here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods)

I honestly think I would have been delighted had they hired someone from Football Outsiders to pioneer the position.

[YardRat]

Wait, are you saying kicking the xp was the right call when we scored to go down by 12?

I'm a firm believer in A)not going for two unless it is very early, or very late, in the game, and B)favoring the intangibles over the number-crunchers for decision making. Intuition, or 'gut feeling' if you will, is simply a conclusion rendered based on previous information that your subconscious has processed before one's conscious has caught up to as to 'why'.

[stuckincincy]

I'm a firm believer in A)not going for two unless it is very early, or very late, in the game, and B)favoring the intangibles over the number-crunchers for decision making.

Late, yes. And unless you are really getting blown out in the 1st half or so, I don't get why clubs - after a long drive - decide to go for a td instead of a snap fg. I'll take the 3 and momentum can go pound salt.