Devil's Advocate - Tell me why...

[Pride]

you think the bills will be a playoff team.

Go!

[WG]

:scramble:

LOL

My essay:

The Bills will be a playoff team this year because...

With the addition of Adams, their "holes" on the DL are plugged although not necessarily shored up from a pass-rushing standpoint. Yet, last year's D by year's end was playing at a top-10 or 12 level, so the addition of Adams and powerman Spikes should mean a world of difference. The secondary will improve it's play exponentially as a result of having a decent front 7.

On offense, the only thing that would hurt our playoff chances are if we truly do not become a much more run oriented team. Assuming that the FO's comments about doing that can be taken at face-value, something which I'm still skeptical about, then our offense should ROCK!!!

The combination of Henry and the "new and improved D" will compliment each other so that we have to put the ball in the air much less, hopefully by 20%+ less bringing our attempts down from ~612 to around 450-480.

As well, many of the new additions will help improve our lackluster STs. I expect Gash's biggest contributions to be on STs. Along w/ some of the b/u DBs who we've signed. Expect our STs to vastly improve as well.

Reasons why we may not be a playoff team:

If Drew makes his usual errors in most of our important games again. No team on average wins games w/ their QB making nearly 3 TOs/game while taking 3-4 sacks vice putting up only 1 TD/game to counter!

If we have more than a single L/T injury to our OL.

[ryven]

I dont know I think gash will see alot of time blocking for henry but I think with crosby learning from centers and now gash he may very well be a Premiere FB.

[TypicalBill]

The additions on Defense will make a huge difference... now we'll actually be able to rush the QB...


Henry will improve and i expect around 1500 yards with less fumbles.


This team will rock!!!!! if only the season could start next week:drool:

[LtBillsFan66]

We were 8-8 last year with half the defense we have this year. Spikes and Adams will make a huge difference.

[MDFINFAN]

Originally posted by billsfanone
We were 8-8 last year with half the defense we have this year. Spikes and Adams will make a huge difference.

But you've lost 1/2 the Offense...I don't know, in this division even with what you've added, you're not guaranteed anything, the Bills and Phins look great on paper, but with this division, the Jets could end up repeat Champions...go figure.

[The_Philster]

Half the offense? :scratch: We lost Peerless Price, Jay Riemersma, and Larry Centers. Price is a loss but Centers wasn't used as much as he used to be...Gash can fill that role and more and Riemersma is a bit of a loss but Campbell and Moore should fill in nicely.

[MDFINFAN]

Originally posted by The_Philster
Half the offense? :scratch: We lost Peerless Price, Jay Riemersma, and Larry Centers. Price is a loss but Centers wasn't used as much as he used to be...Gash can fill that role and more and Riemersma is a bit of a loss but Campbell and Moore should fill in nicely.

Ok put this way, Price 1252 yards, Centers 388 yards passing, Riemersma 350 = 1990 tot passing yards =46% of your passing O. Almost 1/2 of you passing O.

Buf tot pasing yards 4364

[RUDEbyallMEANS]

Buffalo is a playoff team.. But the AFC East is very strong.. Miami, Buffalo and Pats will be fighting for division champ and I predict 2 teams from AFC East make the playoffs.. Miami and Buffalo.. But anything can happen, especially with the injury bugs roaming around loooking for someone to bite and it could be any of our respected teams.. Of course, my prediction is based on injury-free season to all teams which of course is not likely.. :D

HURRAH:drinker:

[The_Philster]

Originally posted by MDFINFAN
Ok put this way, Price 1252 yards, Centers 388 yards passing, Riemersma 350 = 1990 tot passing yards =46% of your passing O. Almost 1/2 of you passing O.

Buf tot pasing yards 4364



We CAN run the ball as well. ;)

[MDFINFAN]

Originally posted by The_Philster




We CAN run the ball as well. ;)

No that's what you will be attempting to prove this year.:cowboy:

[superbills]

Originally posted by MDFINFAN


No that's what you will be attempting to prove this year.:cowboy:

:confused: I'd harldy say that a top 5 RB has something to prove. We've proven we CAN run the ball, we just need to do it MORE.

[superbills]

By the way, the Bills will make the playoffs as one of the NFL's best offensive lines comes of age and Travis Henry gets a chance to show that 1438 was just a mile marker.

[RUDEbyallMEANS]

Originally posted by superbills
By the way, the Bills will make the playoffs as one of the NFL's best offensive lines comes of age and Travis Henry gets a chance to show that 1438 was just a mile marker.

Seeing what has been going on in the AFC East and seeing that the Bills were swept by the Jets and Patriots, I hardly see the reason for a guarantee such as the one above: "the Bills will make the playoffs".. Bills od have alot to prove and signings just do not do it on paper.. Every team in AFC East has something to prove and guaranteeing a playoff berth doesn't seem logical to me.. :biggrin:

HURRAH:drinker:

[MDFINFAN]

Originally posted by superbills


:confused: I'd harldy say that a top 5 RB has something to prove. We've proven we CAN run the ball, we just need to do it MORE.

One more gin:father: , TH yardage was a by product of the passing game, this year you will prove if you come out running if you can win by the run, not the pass, as every writer states and lot of you guys talk about, the bills are considered a passing team, the run was only 1/3 of your o last year..ie. Moulds 1200, Price 1200, Reeds 500, Riesemsea 350, Centers 300, TH 300, passing yards, TH 1400 rushing yards...Now I ask which did you have more of and by how much? When you can get it about 50/50, then we're talk about you being a running team.

[JefftheBillsfan]

i dont care whos your QB, or WR's, few RBs I've seen fall forward like he does, or show a suprising burst to win a ball game at the gun.

[LtBillsFan66]

Originally posted by MDFINFAN


But you've lost 1/2 the Offense...I don't know, in this division even with what you've added, you're not guaranteed anything, the Bills and Phins look great on paper, but with this division, the Jets could end up repeat Champions...go figure.

I agree. Losing Peerless will hurt. I think the D will more than make up for it. JR and Centeres won't be missed much, IMO.

[WG]

MD,

What, are you on acid again tonight! You're hallucinating!

:D


Originally posted by MDFINFAN


Ok put this way, Price 1252 yards, Centers 388 yards passing, Riemersma 350 = 1990 tot passing yards =46% of your passing O. Almost 1/2 of you passing O.

Buf tot pasing yards 4364


Originally posted by MDFINFAN


One more gin:father: , TH yardage was a by product of the passing game, this year you will prove if you come out running if you can win by the run, not the pass, as every writer states and lot of you guys talk about, the bills are considered a passing team, the run was only 1/3 of your o last year..ie. Moulds 1200, Price 1200, Reeds 500, Riesemsea 350, Centers 300, TH 300, passing yards, TH 1400 rushing yards...Now I ask which did you have more of and by how much? When you can get it about 50/50, then we're talk about you being a running team.

Centers 388 yards eh? You think that's a lot for a team who put up over 4,300 passing yards? It's less than 10%, around 9% actually. Same for JR, whose 350 was a paltry 8% of the passing O.

By contrast, at least 21 TEs had more yardage than JR. At least 19 had more yardage. And at least 29 had more TDs! And you think we've lost something great! :rolleyes: Sometimes you make some good comments, but then at times, like this, I have to scratch my head and wonder who your dealer is and where he's gettin' the stuff he's sellin' ya! :D

As well, Price is the only one of the three than can even be remotely argued that we lost something. But consider this, if in fact the Bills are truly gonna take the ball out of Drew's hands some and run significantly more, again which I am skeptical of given Buffalo's love affair w/ Drew, then Price wouldn't have been happy here b/c even he wouldn't have come close to matching last season's numbers. Either that or he and Moulds would have caught 75% of all of Drew's passes this season which shoots down the rest of your argument in that case.

It's not like Shaw is picking up Price's slack. It's Reed, who had a better first season than Price did, and Reed whose collegiate accolades put Prices on a much lower level and to shame! Reed will make everyone forget Price.

As to your percentages of offense, you've skewed the data to reflect the Bills quick start against bottom tier defenses to generate an average for the entire season. Sure, over the first handful of games Drew was on fire and the passing game was accounting for most of the TDs.

But, and between Henry and Drew:

First 6 games:

While Drew put up 2/3 of the TDs and 80% of the yardage, he also had 70% of the touches between the two. Drew averaged 42 attempts/game to Henry's 18 rushes! So the disparity really only reflects opportunity, not production ROI.

Last 10 games:

Meanwhile, while given the same number of opps in the last 10 games, Drew only accounted for 60% of the TDs in spite of getting an average of 36 att./game to Henry's 21 carries/game. Again, with over 63% of the touches! And again, w/ over 71% of the yards!

So your analysis falls short from the perspective that the entire reason for the "lesser" production on the part of our rushing game was not due to, as you say or imply, the fact that the rushing game was lucky to get what it did, but rather due to an extreme overreliance on our passing game. Which if you actually watched any Bills games last year, then you'd realize that we hurt ourselves down the stretch, i.e., over the last 10 games, by throwing as much as we did. While yardage and attempts abounded, TD production/scoring did not match from the perspective of the passing game.

[BillsFever]

I could tell you why I think we're a playoff team if I actually thought we'd be in the playoffs.

[WG]

You don't think we're a PO team?

:scratch:

That means that theirs 6 teams that you think will have better records. Which ones do you think will have better records than us?

I'll tell you which ones I don't think will:

Cincy
Houston
Indy
Jax
Baltimore
K.C.
Denver
N.E.

That's 8 of 15 other teams in the AFC.

Teams which I think may have an equal or better record depending upon a variety of factors:

Tenn.
Jets
Oakland
S.D.
Cleveland
Pittsburgh

The only team that I am counting on being w/in a game of us if not convincingly better is the Fins. I think that will boil down to our HtH games w/ them. This year we'll likely have to play them at full strength however and w/o the aid of a blinding snowstorm in all liklihood.

[MDFINFAN]

Originally posted by Wys Guy
MD,

What, are you on acid again tonight! You're hallucinating!

:D

Centers 388 yards eh? You think that's a lot for a team who put up over 4,300 passing yards? It's less than 10%, around 9% actually. Same for JR, whose 350 was a paltry 8% of the passing O.

By contrast, at least 21 TEs had more yardage than JR. At least 19 had more yardage. And at least 29 had more TDs! And you think we've lost something great! :rolleyes: Sometimes you make some good comments, but then at times, like this, I have to scratch my head and wonder who your dealer is and where he's gettin' the stuff he's sellin' ya! :D

As well, Price is the only one of the three than can even be remotely argued that we lost something. But consider this, if in fact the Bills are truly gonna take the ball out of Drew's hands some and run significantly more, again which I am skeptical of given Buffalo's love affair w/ Drew, then Price wouldn't have been happy here b/c even he wouldn't have come close to matching last season's numbers. Either that or he and Moulds would have caught 75% of all of Drew's passes this season which shoots down the rest of your argument in that case.

It's not like Shaw is picking up Price's slack. It's Reed, who had a better first season than Price did, and Reed whose collegiate accolades put Prices on a much lower level and to shame! Reed will make everyone forget Price.

As to your percentages of offense, you've skewed the data to reflect the Bills quick start against bottom tier defenses to generate an average for the entire season. Sure, over the first handful of games Drew was on fire and the passing game was accounting for most of the TDs.

But, and between Henry and Drew:

First 6 games:

While Drew put up 2/3 of the TDs and 80% of the yardage, he also had 70% of the touches between the two. Drew averaged 42 attempts/game to Henry's 18 rushes! So the disparity really only reflects opportunity, not production ROI.

Last 10 games:

Meanwhile, while given the same number of opps in the last 10 games, Drew only accounted for 60% of the TDs in spite of getting an average of 36 att./game to Henry's 21 carries/game. Again, with over 63% of the touches! And again, w/ over 71% of the yards!

So your analysis falls short from the perspective that the entire reason for the "lesser" production on the part of our rushing game was not due to, as you say or imply, the fact that the rushing game was lucky to get what it did, but rather due to an extreme overreliance on our passing game. Which if you actually watched any Bills games last year, then you'd realize that we hurt ourselves down the stretch, i.e., over the last 10 games, by throwing as much as we did. While yardage and attempts abounded, TD production/scoring did not match from the perspective of the passing game.

Yea, I'm on acid..My only point in all this was to show that you were a passing team..Your breakdown actually completes this for me..While Centers and JR wasn't a large part of that, Price was, and TH added a lot of passing yards. But you said it yourself, "our rushing game was not due to, as you say or imply, the fact that the rushing game was lucky to get what it did, but rather due to an extreme overreliance on our passing game. Which if you actually watched any Bills games last year, then you'd realize that we hurt ourselves down the stretch, i.e., over the last 10 games, by throwing as much as we did." No doubt you over used the pass, but that's why I and numberous writers label you a passing team. That was my only point in this..Oh yes, the first one was to show a lot of passing yards by those guys, I think my overall point was that they accounted for almost half of your passing attack, no matter what the combo..and at least I was earnest about the numbers, I didn't try to give them more than they had, but the combo of their numbers, price being the bulk, to show the %.

[TheGhostofJimKelly]

It has been an offseason to remember for the Bills. They have signed some immediate help on the defensive side of the ball. They had a pretty good draft and if the McGahee gamble pays off it will add another dimension to the offense.

Why the Bills will make the playoffs:

The Bills had a good year last year. They started to make some noise and climbed back to respectability in a short time. If the offense can establish the running game like it appears they are trying to do and they can control the clock it will allow the "new and improved" defense to get rest and always be rested and ready to go. If the defense comes together and plays like they did at the end of last season the team will be tough to play against. Add this to the fact that if special teams improves you can look for a 10-6 record.

Why the Bills won't make the playoffs:
Let's face it, if the defense can't gel into a solid unit in the beginning of the season it will be an uphill battle. The first four weeks of the season will be tough. The opening game with New England could be a major factor. If they can't at least split the first four games it is going to be tough. Another thing is Drew, he needs to cut down on some of the bad decisions from last season. It isn't an easy schedule in the beginning of the season and without a doubt the end of it. If early failures happen I see the team going 8-8 and again missing the playoffs by like a game.

[SABURZFAN]

of course we are.it depends if our coaching staff can pull their heads out of their @$$e$.

[superbills]

:pow:
Originally posted by MDFINFAN


Yea, I'm on acid..My only point in all this was to show that you were a passing team..Your breakdown actually completes this for me..While Centers and JR wasn't a large part of that, Price was, and TH added a lot of passing yards. But you said it yourself, "our rushing game was not due to, as you say or imply, the fact that the rushing game was lucky to get what it did, but rather due to an extreme overreliance on our passing game. Which if you actually watched any Bills games last year, then you'd realize that we hurt ourselves down the stretch, i.e., over the last 10 games, by throwing as much as we did." No doubt you over used the pass, but that's why I and numberous writers label you a passing team. That was my only point in this..Oh yes, the first one was to show a lot of passing yards by those guys, I think my overall point was that they accounted for almost half of your passing attack, no matter what the combo..and at least I was earnest about the numbers, I didn't try to give them more than they had, but the combo of their numbers, price being the bulk, to show the %.

This is so rediculously simple, I'm banging my head against the desk trying to dumb it down for you. Look, first of all, why is it that we SHOULD be a "running team" as you call it? We are certainly a team that CAN run, if that's what you mean. Your 50/50 nonsense as it relates to yardage is so ludicrous that it's maddening. How many teams actually split rushing and passing yards and are actually successful? Your vaunted Dolphins had one of the closest ratios in the league in that regard, but I don't see them making any magical playoff runs. If you can't throw the ball you're toast, regardless of who is in your backfield. We're looking for a closer split in attempts per game and if that is what you meant, well you sure fooled me. As to the ludicrous argument that the loss of Price, et al, will result in half of our Offense being lost, ummm we do have other players, many of whom are VERY capable of picking up at least most of the slack left by the departure of the other players. Wys is right on in his prediction that Josh Reed will make the memory of PP fade very rapidly. Your arguments don't hold water. You're making assumptions that are not only invalid, but can't be backed up statistically, or logically.