Chiefs @ Bills Preview

[The King]

Sorry I was late on this.

http://www.billszone.com/?p=1607

There’s a strange aura around this game. It’s almost like the Bills are favored. The Chiefs are historically bad at Ralph Wilson Stadium and despite their perfect record they’re coming in as underdogs, at least from Bills fans perspective. The Chiefs will lull you to sleep with a boring offense and suffocate you with a tremendous defense. The home crowd needs to stay fierce to keep the Bills fired up in this one.

After dissecting this match-up up I do like the Bills chances. The Chiefs are great in the areas the Bills struggle, it would take a near perfect game to steal this one.

Quarterback:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png)Alex Smith has pretty much come as advertised. Don’t put the game on his shoulder and he can be an efficient QB. Here are a few interesting stats, in 3 road games Smith has only thrown 2TD’s, all of his interceptions this season (4) have come in the second half and he has most of his success throwing to the middle of the field. In 4 games this season Smith has been without a passing TD. If Thad Lewis was a definite go, I would seriously consider giving this to the Bills, but his uncertainty favors KC. = Chiefs
Alex Smith: 169/286, 59%, 1,795 yards, 9TD/4INT, 82.1
Thad Lewis: 62/103, 60%, 652 yards, 3TD/2INT, 80.2

Running back:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png)Jamaal Charles is easily the best running back the Bills have faced this season. His ability to catch out of the backfield makes him the focal point of the Chiefs offense. Charles has had some big games vs the Bills just not lately. 2008; (rookie) 2/22 yards, 2009; 20/143 yards 1TD, 2010; 22/177 yards, 2011; 10/56 yards, 2012; 6/3 yards. Buffalo was able to contain Sproles in the passing game last week, I think they’re up to the task against the leagues 2ndranked rusher. = Chiefs
Jamaal Charles: 153/635 yards, 4.2ypc, 6TD
Fred Jackson: 101/425 yards, 4.2ypc, 6TD
Wide Receivers/Tight ends:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/buf.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/buf.png)The Chiefs are so conservative passing the ball it really takes the playmaking ability away from the receivers. Dwayne Bowe is being held to an average of 11.6 the lowest of his career, Donnie Avery hasn’t found the endzone since week 1 and collectively the team ranks 30th in yards per catch. = Bills
Steve Johnson: 33/387 yards, 3 TD
Donnie Avery: 24/374 yards, 1TD
Scott Chandler: 29/341 yards, 2TD
Dwayne Bowe: 26/302 yards, 2TD
Oline:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/buf.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/buf.png)The Saints humbled the Bills Oline last week getting to Thad Lewis 4 times, but hitting him close to a dozen, they also closed in on the running game and kept Jackson at bay for the entire second half. The Chiefs are also among the leagues worst allowing 24 sacks. They faced their best pass rush of the season last week and Smith ended up on his back 6x. =Bills

Dline/LBers:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/buf.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/buf.png)36 sacks. KC is the only team ahead of Buffalo in the sack department. They’re holding opposing QB’s to an avg. rating of 70! Crazy!? But wait, they’ve faced 4 back-up QB’s this season, Gabbert, Fitzpatrick, Keenum and Campbell. They are a force with 9 more sacks than the Bills, but we’re not comparing the same caliber opponents. = Bills
Kiko Alonso: 81 Tackles, 1 sack, 5TFL, 4INT, 1FF, 1FREC
Mario Williams: 21 Tackles, 11 sacks, 1TFL, 1FF
Justin Houston: 27 Tackles, 11 sacks, 2TFL, 1FF, 2FREC
Derrick Johnson: 61 Tackles, 3.5 sacks, 4TFL, 1FREC
Defensive backs:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png)The Chiefs is something special. Brandon Flowers, Eric Berry, Quintin Demps, Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper might be playing better than any group in football at this point. Combined they have 8 interceptions, and 38 passes defended. With the way Thad has been sailing the football there’s the potential to throw 4INT’s in this game. Buffalo has to be quick and accurate with the football, you don’t want to give these guys time to make a play on the football.=Chiefs
Brandon Flowers: 36 Tackles, 1INT, 4PD
Marcus Cooper: 15 Tackles, 2INT, 11PD
Aaron Williams: 46 Tackles, 3INT, 6PD
Leodis McKelvin: 32 Tackles, 9PD

Coaching:
http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png (http://www.billszone.com/wp-content/uploads/KC.png)Andy Reid is almost a lock for Coach of the Year in Week 8. The Chiefs will likely finish 11-5 behind the Bronco’s in the division, but he’s taken a 2-14 to a potential playoff birth. His vanilla offense relies completely on Jamaal Charles and stronger teams will eventually be able to take advantage. = Chiefs
Andy Reid: 138-93-1 (2-1 vs Buffalo, 24-31 Loss in 2011)
Doug Marrone: 3-5

[justasportsfan]

Bowe is in trouble. Here comes Robey!!!

[The King]

Anyone who has Bowe in fantasy leagues knows he's been a mess this year.

[GingerP]

Giving the Bills front 7 the edge against KC seems homer-ish.

The fact is KC has given up the fewest points in the league, to the Bills 25th. They have given up the 5th fewest yards in the NFL, to the Bills 26th. They lead the NFL in 3rd down defense (25%) to the Bills 21st ranking (39%).

Talk about quality of opponent all you want, but the KC defense has fared far better in just about every measure in every level of the defense. The season is half over, it is clear the difference.

[The King]

Giving the Bills front 7 the edge against KC seems homer-ish.

The fact is KC has given up the fewest points in the league, to the Bills 25th. They have given up the 5th fewest yards in the NFL, to the Bills 26th. They lead the NFL in 3rd down defense (25%) to the Bills 21st ranking (39%).

Talk about quality of opponent all you want, but the KC defense has fared far better in just about every measure in every level of the defense. The season is half over, it is clear the difference.

That's a fair assessment. But I honestly feel the secondary are the ones getting the job done. Their coverage is excellent, and when you take that into account, with the inexperienced QB's you get sacks.

[cookie G]

36 sacks. KC is the only team ahead of Buffalo in the sack department. They’re holding opposing QB’s to an avg. rating of 70! Crazy!? But wait, they’ve faced 4 back-up QB’s this season, Gabbert, Fitzpatrick, Keenum and Campbell.

My son's been saying this forever...he keeps saying, who have they played? Besides the back up QB's, they played the Giants when everyone was beating the Giants, a very bad looking Michael Vick...but McCoy ran for a bunch against them that day.

Romo actually put up 300 yards against them and Dez Bryant was catching the ball all over the field. Dallas was just Dallas, and kept shooting themselves in the foot.

A couple of keys..in my book...

-Is Lawson playing? They need all of the lateral speed they can get to contain him. DB help in run support would help.

-Poe vs. Wood...a good match up. Poe is learning to use his immense physical talents, and from what I've seen, looks good this year. But this is why you draft a guy like Wood..Wood can take him..or at least negate him.

-The McCluster factor- he's been getting a little more attention recently...a Darren Sproles type player.

-The Tamba Hali factor- In last year's game, Wood and Glenn both complained that he was extremely chipping, he was taking throat shots at both of them. Wood went after him during the game. I doubt either has forgotten that.

-Last year's tape. Marrone and co. really should watch last year's tape and learn from it. That was probably Gailey's best game called last season. He was beautiful at setting them up...having the D flow one way and then sending in a counter play. Spiller killed them. Just don't run up the middle.

-The QB question-who to play, who to play? Because the Chiefs blitz much like the Bills...with different fronts and from every angle...(Bob Sutton came from the Jets), I'd almost consider Flynn, just for the experience factor. If anything...they are going to need FJ on the field a good deal of the game, just to be able to pick up the blitz.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Chop Down Tamba Hali, get Kiko to give Jamaal a haircut, and this game is over, Bills 20, Chiefs 6

[better days]

My son's been saying this forever...he keeps saying, who have they played? Besides the back up QB's, they played the Giants when everyone was beating the Giants, a very bad looking Michael Vick...but McCoy ran for a bunch against them that day.

Romo actually put up 300 yards against them and Dez Bryant was catching the ball all over the field. Dallas was just Dallas, and kept shooting themselves in the foot.

A couple of keys..in my book...

-Is Lawson playing? They need all of the lateral speed they can get to contain him. DB help in run support would help.

-Poe vs. Wood...a good match up. Poe is learning to use his immense physical talents, and from what I've seen, looks good this year. But this is why you draft a guy like Wood..Wood can take him..or at least negate him.

-The McCluster factor- he's been getting a little more attention recently...a Darren Sproles type player.

-The Tamba Hali factor- In last year's game, Wood and Glenn both complained that he was extremely chipping, he was taking throat shots at both of them. Wood went after him during the game. I doubt either has forgotten that.

-Last year's tape. Marrone and co. really should watch last year's tape and learn from it. That was probably Gailey's best game called last season. He was beautiful at setting them up...having the D flow one way and then sending in a counter play. Spiller killed them. Just don't run up the middle.

-The QB question-who to play, who to play? Because the Chiefs blitz much like the Bills...with different fronts and from every angle...(Bob Sutton came from the Jets), I'd almost consider Flynn, just for the experience factor. If anything...they are going to need FJ on the field a good deal of the game, just to be able to pick up the blitz.

I agree with your son. A huge reason the Chiefs have that record is the opponents they played. If they played the Bills schedule, Ravens, Panthers, Pats*, Fins, Saints, there is no way in Hell they would be 8 -0.

And yes, Lawson is playing.

[Mace]

It is always my wish game when we play KC. I am an old Chiefs fan, I mean old, Len Dawson Chiefs. I always read other teams boards on game week, and there is always a level of respect for other teams. Since the year they had Cassel and the NE troika of Haley, Weis, and Crennel working the best in 2010 (KC 13, Buffalo 10), the fans there have felt themselves anointed among the elite and pity the woeful Buffalo fools when we face them.

Oh how they wailed and gnashed their teeth when we crashed their dreams 41 to 7 in 2011 and it was forever the evil Stevie Johnson's fault for hurting Eric Berry though he didn't, played several more plays at full speed before clearly blowing out his knee making a cut in the open field with no one near him, because it was just SO OBVIOUS they were beyond us.

Then we whipped them like dogs 35-17 led by the illustrious Ryan Fitzpatrick as leaping Peyton Hillis leaped one to many times, and again they wailed loudly, gnashing their teeth, remembering Stevie Johnson's cruelty and omg how could this happen when we just played THEM !

So here we are again, and I read on their boards about Stevie Johnson and haha, it's Buffalo. They learned not a thing and I hope by all that is righteous and just in Fate, that if we only win one more game in my entire lifetime, we beat them like a pinata at a steroid abusers convention, begin their ruin anew, and crush their dreams yet again to leave them wailing and weeping in the darkness as they begin the part of their schedule that will see them playing real teams.

In my dreams, there is a justice. Bills 38, KC 10 and they will pray they never ever have to play us ever again.

[better days]

Giving the Bills front 7 the edge against KC seems homer-ish.

The fact is KC has given up the fewest points in the league, to the Bills 25th. They have given up the 5th fewest yards in the NFL, to the Bills 26th. They lead the NFL in 3rd down defense (25%) to the Bills 21st ranking (39%).

Talk about quality of opponent all you want, but the KC defense has fared far better in just about every measure in every level of the defense. The season is half over, it is clear the difference.

Well, we know the Chiefs play well against MEDIOCRE opponents.

There is no way they would have that record or those stats if they played the same teams the Bills have played.

And people that like Smith, his numbers are not much better than Thad's. And Thad was a PS guy that would not be on the roster if not for all the injuries the Bills have had.

And I would have given the Bills the RB position, not the Chiefs. CJ is playing & even injured, he is better than Charles who has a long carry of 24 yds this year.

[GingerP]

Well, we know the Chiefs play well against MEDIOCRE opponents.

Not for nothing, but the Bills aren't exactly a juggernaut. If they have played well against mediocre teams, the Bills aren't any more of a challenge with Tuel starting. Hard to imagine the Bills scoring many points on offense, it is far easier to see KC dominating them and shutting them down. If the Bills win this, it will be because their defense is able to generate turnovers.

I am not that impressed with the KC offense, but their defense is very good. To say the Bills have a better front-7 is being a homer, given KC is far superior by any measure. The bottom line is they have allowed about 12 points a game, while the Bills have allowed about 26. Opponents aside, that is a big difference.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

I think Bills win 20 to 6 simply because I think the Chiefs are already focused on Denver. In the media in KC its pretty much matter of factly, Chiefs have this game won, and then its all important Denver. I like our chances at home.

[better days]

Not for nothing, but the Bills aren't exactly a juggernaut. If they have played well against mediocre teams, the Bills aren't any more of a challenge with Tuel starting. Hard to imagine the Bills scoring many points on offense, it is far easier to see KC dominating them and shutting them down. If the Bills win this, it will be because their defense is able to generate turnovers.

I am not that impressed with the KC offense, but their defense is very good. To say the Bills have a better front-7 is being a homer, given KC is far superior by any measure. The bottom line is they have allowed about 12 points a game, while the Bills have allowed about 26. Opponents aside, that is a big difference.

Opponents aside is TOTAL BS. The opponents have to be taken into consideration.

I don't know that the Chiefs are any better than the Bills on defense & I know the Bills are better than the Chiefs on offense, the Bills scoring a MINIMUM of 17 points in one game & over 20 points in every other game.

And the Bills have done that against some GOOD defenses. At home even with a questionable QB, I expect the Bills to put up at least 17 points on the Chiefs.

[better days]

I think Bills win 20 to 6 simply because I think the Chiefs are already focused on Denver. In the media in KC its pretty much matter of factly, Chiefs have this game won, and then its all important Denver. I like our chances at home.

Well the Chiefs expected to win the last two games against the Bills as well.

[GingerP]

Opponents aside is TOTAL BS. The opponents have to be taken into consideration.

I don't know that the Chiefs are any better than the Bills on defense & I know the Bills are better than the Chiefs on offense, the Bills scoring a MINIMUM of 17 points in one game & over 20 points in every other game.

And the Bills have done that against some GOOD defenses. At home even with a questionable QB, I expect the Bills to put up at least 17 points on the Chiefs.

The Bills may well win, because KC isn't a high-scoring team. KC doesn't get any explosive plays on offense, so they tend to have a smaller margin for error. The Bills need to get turnovers.

Their defense is real good, and trying to put them down because of their schedule is stupid. They have performed. Normally, the Bills are an average offense, 18th in points and 22nd in yards, running better than passing. With Tuel in there they are below average, and not a good match-up against a good KC defense.

[better days]

The Bills may well win, because KC isn't a high-scoring team. KC doesn't get any explosive plays on offense, so they tend to have a smaller margin for error. The Bills need to get turnovers.

Their defense is real good, and trying to put them down because of their schedule is stupid. They have performed. Normally, the Bills are an average offense, 18th in points and 22nd in yards, running better than passing. With Tuel in there they are below average, and not a good match-up against a good KC defense.

Well, in the same respect, the KC offense is not a good match up for the Bills defense.

And the Bills are at HOME. If the game were in KC, it may be different, but the Bills defense will have the crowd on their side.

Normally the Bills are playing a GOOD team while the Chiefs have played MEDIOCRE teams. To make light of that is just stupid.

Until the Saints game, the Bills were one of only two teams to score over 20 points in every game played.

[GingerP]

Well, in the same respect, the KC offense is not a good match up for the Bills defense.

And the Bills are at HOME. If the game were in KC, it may be different, but the Bills defense will have the crowd on their side.

Normally the Bills are playing a GOOD team while the Chiefs have played MEDIOCRE teams. To make light of that is just stupid.

Until the Saints game, the Bills were one of only two teams to score over 20 points in every game played.

If you are going to argue, at least stay on point. I already said the Bills can win the game, if their defense kept it low-scoring and got turnovers, because KC isn't an explosive offensive team.

All I said was the OP was being a homer by saying the Bills front-7 is better than KC. KC has one of the league's best defenses in terms of points, yards allowed and 3rd downs, while Buffalo is in the bottom half of the NFL in all those categories. I'd go along with just about everything else in his assessment of the teams, but KC has the advantage all all 3 levels of the defense. They do against a lot of other teams as well, because they are really good on defense. That has nothing to do with the schedule, you just have to watch them. They don't allow teams to do much.

[Mace]

A KC has one of the league's best defenses in terms of points, yards allowed and 3rd downs, while Buffalo is in the bottom half of the NFL in all those categories. I'd go along with just about everything else in his assessment of the teams, but KC has the advantage all all 3 levels of the defense. They do against a lot of other teams as well, because they are really good on defense. That has nothing to do with the schedule, you just have to watch them. They don't allow teams to do much.

They do by stats, in playing a bunch of teams that aren't real good, and honestly, they don't have the advantage in all three levels of the defense because they're mostly the same players that went home after being whipped 35-17 last year by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Though it hasn't played out yet over a whole season, we may well be far superior in all three levels of defense while being injury prone.

They haven't let bad teams do much though they haven't exactly stuffed them either. Their opponents are 20-41, haven't beaten a team with a winning record and won 5 at home. Bills opponents are 36-26 right off the top with New Orleans only really outclassing us and it wasn't hard to see the game going differently to some extent. This with Thad Lewis.

8-0 looks so powerful and they may not even win their division because second half they face winning team opponents, and say hello to Denver.

[GingerP]

They do by stats, in playing a bunch of teams that aren't real good, and honestly, they don't have the advantage in all three levels of the defense because they're mostly the same players that went home after being whipped 35-17 last year by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Though it hasn't played out yet over a whole season, we may well be far superior in all three levels of defense while being injury prone.

They aren't the same defense as last year anymore than the Bill's current defense is the same as a year ago. Like the Bills, they have a new defensive coordinator (Bob Sutton) who learned his craft under Rex Ryan and has installed the Jets attacking-style defense. You can't say the Bills are different and not acknowledge the same for KC.

The bottom line is KC has been consistently dominant on defense all year in a way the Bills haven't. The Bills are improved, but they aren't a great defense. They flash promise and are aggressive, but they haven't played consistently at a level KC has. Thus, it has to be acknowledged that the KC defense is better. I mean, I keep hearing how Buffalo was one of 2 teams in the NFL to score 20 points a game up until last week, but nobody mentions the Buffalo opponents have scored more than 20 points a game in every game this year. Hard to call them a good defense.

Also, you can talk about KC's defense playing against backup QBs like Fitzpatrick and Campbell, but today they are going up against Tuel. It isn't like the Bills are any better.

That isn't to say the Bills can't win. KC isn't built to blow teams out because their offense lacks explosive ability. The Bills also have the home-field advantage. They can win, I just think any reasonable person will look at the respective defenses and see KC as better at all three levels.

[better days]

If you are going to argue, at least stay on point. I already said the Bills can win the game, if their defense kept it low-scoring and got turnovers, because KC isn't an explosive offensive team.

All I said was the OP was being a homer by saying the Bills front-7 is better than KC. KC has one of the league's best defenses in terms of points, yards allowed and 3rd downs, while Buffalo is in the bottom half of the NFL in all those categories. I'd go along with just about everything else in his assessment of the teams, but KC has the advantage all all 3 levels of the defense. They do against a lot of other teams as well, because they are really good on defense. That has nothing to do with the schedule, you just have to watch them. They don't allow teams to do much.

Well, I totally disagree about discounting the schedule. The schedule is what made the Chiefs defense look so good. Case Keenum of all people was 15 of 25 against the Chiefs 1 TD 0 INT's, 60% comp%, 110.6 rating.

And that was on the road in KC. At home in Buffalo, I think Tuel can put up similar numbers. And last year, Haloti had 0 sacks on Fitz. I think the Bills front 7 is BETTER than the Chiefs front 7, the Bills have just played against BETTER teams.

[Mike]

Well, I totally disagree about discounting the schedule. The schedule is what made the Chiefs defense look so good. Case Keenum of all people was 15 of 25 against the Chiefs 1 TD 0 INT's, 60% comp%, 110.6 rating.

And that was on the road in KC. At home in Buffalo, I think Tuel can put up similar numbers. And last year, Haloti had 0 sacks on Fitz. I think the Bills front 7 is BETTER than the Chiefs front 7, the Bills have just played against BETTER teams.

If you are always taking schedule into account how can you say whose better & whose worst?

Each team only plays 16 games, & 13 unique opponents. In a league of parity, lucky bounces, injuries, referees, all influence the end result to the point that the better teams don't always win.

So, how can you really know who is the best or who is best? You can always use the schedule excuse, the injury excuse, and luck.

Other sports like baseball don't have this problem simply because everyone plays everyone else, many many times!

[Novacane]

Well, we know the Chiefs play well against MEDIOCRE opponents.

There is no way they would have that record or those stats if they played the same teams the Bills have played.

And people that like Smith, his numbers are not much better than Thad's. And Thad was a PS guy that would not be on the roster if not for all the injuries the Bills have had.

And I would have given the Bills the RB position, not the Chiefs. CJ is playing & even injured, he is better than Charles who has a long carry of 24 yds this year.



I doubt they would be 8-0 if they played our schedule but would we be 8-0 if we had played theirs?

[Mr. Pink]

I doubt they would be 8-0 if they played our schedule but would we be 8-0 if we had played theirs?

Well no because the Chiefs beat the Browns.

[TacklingDummy]

Gumbuel just said Marrone was a rookie head coach, is Andy Reid a rookie?

[Mike]

Well, I totally disagree about discounting the schedule. The schedule is what made the Chiefs defense look so good. Case Keenum of all people was 15 of 25 against the Chiefs 1 TD 0 INT's, 60% comp%, 110.6 rating.

And that was on the road in KC. At home in Buffalo, I think Tuel can put up similar numbers. And last year, Haloti had 0 sacks on Fitz. I think the Bills front 7 is BETTER than the Chiefs front 7, the Bills have just played against BETTER teams.

Well Better Days,
For all your opinions today
Chiefs defense out scored Bills
Chiefs Defense 14: Bills 13

[Mace]

This game just broke my heart because it was so winnable and so incompetently lost by a variety of bumbling mistakes they shouldn't be having anymore at the halfway point if the players and coaching staff were worth a crap.

[The King]

Well I called it the secondary was the difference maker.