Bills and the standings... playoffs and draft

[X-Era]

I looked at the playoff situation because I'm a Bills fan which means I'm also a sadomasochist.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false

Turns out the Jets who we just beat are in the drivers seat of the 6th wild card spot at this point at 5 and 5. We are in this as of now.

But the biggest thing I noticed is a cup half full or empty kind of thing...

At .586 we have the toughest strength of schedule by far. We would win any tie-breaker (based on just that) in the AFC.


<tbody>


American Football Conference


CONF RK (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/order/true)
AFC
W (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedWins/order/true)
L (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedLosses/order/true)
T (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedTies/order/true)
PCT (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/projectedWinPct/order/true)
DIV (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/divisionWinPct/order/true)
CONF (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceWinPct/order/true)
SOS (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/strengthOfSchedule/order/true)
SOV (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/strengthOfVictory/order/true)


1
Denver (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/den/denver-broncos)
9
1
0
.900
3-0-0
5-1-0
.465
.440


2
Indianapolis (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/ind/indianapolis-colts)
7
3
0
.700
3-0-0
5-2-0
.485
.507


3
New England (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/ne/new-england-patriots)
7
3
0
.700
3-1-0
4-2-0
.480
.423


4
Cincinnati (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-bengals)
7
4
0
.636
2-2-0
5-3-0
.486
.493


5
Kansas City (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-chiefs)
9
1
0
.900
1-1-0
6-1-0
.422
.370


6
NY Jets (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/nyj/new-york-jets)
5
5
0
.500
2-2-0
2-5-0
.476
.451


7
Miami (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/mia/miami-dolphins)
5
5
0
.500
0-2-0
4-3-0
.480
.471


8
Oakland (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/oak/oakland-raiders)
4
6
0
.400
1-2-0
4-3-0
.485
.275


9
Tennessee (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/ten/tennessee-titans)
4
6
0
.400
0-3-0
3-4-0
.515
.425


10
Pittsburgh (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-steelers)
4
6
0
.400
1-1-0
3-4-0
.480
.463


11
Baltimore (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-ravens)
4
6
0
.400
2-2-0
4-4-0
.490
.439


12
Cleveland (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-browns)
4
6
0
.400
2-2-0
3-4-0
.515
.405


13
San Diego (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-chargers)
4
6
0
.400
0-2-0
2-5-0
.455
.463


14
Buffalo (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills)
4
7
0
.364
2-2-0
3-6-0
.586
.525


15
Houston (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/hou/houston-texans)
2
8
0
.200
1-1-0
2-4-0
.574
.400


16
Jacksonville (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/jax/jacksonville-jaguars)
1
9
0
.100
1-1-0
1-5-0
.624
.400

</tbody>

The downside is we will be at the bottom of any tied record at the end of the year as far as draft order goes. We are within 1 win of a whole host of other teams. We sit at 7 right now but could drop all the way to 15. We have a tougher strength of schedule than any of the NFC teams as well.

The current draft order looks like this:

http://www.bucsnation.com/pages/nfl-draft-order-2014


<tbody>
Pick
Team
Record
Strength of Schedule


1
JAX
1 - 9
86 - 76


2
MIN
2 - 8
87 - 75


3
HOU
2 - 8
87 - 73


4
ATL
2 - 8
87 - 72


5
TB
2 - 8
91 - 69


6
STL via WSH
3 - 7
83 - 79


7
BUF
4 - 7
81 - 77


8
PIT
4 - 6
78 - 84


9
CLE
4 - 6
80 - 82


10
BAL
4 - 6
81 - 81


11
TEN
4 - 6
81 - 80


12
OAK
4 - 6
85 - 76


13
STL
4 - 6
87 - 74


14
SD
4 - 6
88 - 74


15
NYG
4 - 6
89 - 73


16
GB
5 - 5
73 - 89


17
MIA
5 - 5
80 - 80


18
DAL
5 - 5
83 - 79


19
CHI
6 - 4
75 - 87


20
ARI
6 - 4
81 - 76


21
SF
6 - 4
80 - 81


22
NYJ
5 - 5
77 - 83


23
CAR
6 - 3
77 - 84


24
DEN
9 - 1
77 - 83


25
PHI
6 - 5
77 - 83


26
CIN
7 - 4
75 - 85


27
DET
6 - 4
71 - 91


28
CLE via IND
7 - 3
78 - 84


29
NO
8 - 2
78 - 81


30
NE
7 - 2
76 - 86


31
SEA
10 - 1
70 - 89


32
KC
9 - 1
74 - 88

</tbody>

I could easily go cup full with this... The Bills are playing meaningful games in December. They could make a run. We play ATL, TB, and Jax. The last two games against the Fins at home and the Pats in NE (but in a game where they likely rest their starters). I'm hopeful to see them rip off several wins and be in contention at the end of the year for the final playoff spot.

And if (and probably when) we don't make it in we may end up picking in the middle of round 1. I like that spot for 3 of the guys I'd most like to see us land at this point:

Khalil Mack, OLB, Buff
Sammy Watkins, WR, Clem
Eric Ebron, TE, UNC

[TacklingDummy]

Did you take into consideration the Bills have the 2nd weakest schedule remaining?

[TacklingDummy]

The jets and Miami are not making the playoffs.
What 4 win team is?

[X-Era]

Did you take into consideration the Bills have the 2nd weakest schedule remaining?It's a good point. I did not.

- - - Updated - - -


The jets and Miami are not making the playoffs.
What 4 win team is?
I'd go with experience and say either Pitt or Bal. But we win the head to head with Bal.

[RedEyE]

I think the only viable way the Bills get into the playoffs is by taking the division. Of course that means pretty much winning out the rest of the season, going 4-2 in the AFC East and needing the rest of the division to implode just a little more. I could see the Bills taking the next 4 out of 5 but it won't be easy as they technically only have 1 home game left on the schedule, unless you count the Toronto game, which most of us have a difficult time doing. The Bills have been a bad road team.

Outside of that snow-balls chance in hell, other than being mathematically eliminated, it just won't happen. Too many conference losses.

[ghz in pittsburgh]

Playoff is a pipe dream this season. Sorry have to say that.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Nope, I'm actually going to say --especially because the next four are winnable -- we need to try to win out and see if we can get some lucky breaks and stumble into the playoffs. If we win out --even if we aren't going to the dance in January -- and run the table beating everyone (including the Pats in a place we haven't won at since I was a senoir in High School) left on it and finish 9-7, then I say do it. We have to show that we are never out. 9-7 is the only acceptable thing for this team to do.

[Forward_Lateral]

This team reminds me so much of the 9-7 Mularkey coached team that it isn't funny. Start off slow, won a bunch of games in a row to put themselves into position to make the playoffs. All that's left for this team to do is win a bunch of games, lol.

[Generalissimus Gibby]

This team reminds me so much of the 9-7 Mularkey coached team that it isn't funny. Start off slow, won a bunch of games in a row to put themselves into position to make the playoffs. All that's left for this team to do is win a bunch of games, lol.

Certainly the easiest schedule we've had since September of 08.

[Scumbag College]

I think one of the 4 or 5 win teams wins out and gets the last Wildcard spot. A bunch of those teams play each other multiple times and, barring any ties, would knock each other out.

[coastal]

Aside from the Pats... I see the Tampa game as the toughest remaining.

[bleve]

Talking about draft position before Thanksgiving sucks. But, unfortunately for a Bills fan, it's tradition.

[Skooby]

Talking about draft position before Thanksgiving sucks. But, unfortunately for a Bills fan, it's tradition.

Our position always ends up being bent over.

[imbondz]

torture thread

[BertSquirtgum]

My balls itch.

[Homegrown]

only 5 AFC teams have a record greater than 500 ... shameful

[TigerJ]

Of course Buffalo should try to win out, regardless of the playoffs. Buffalo's most acute draft needs are all at positions where it does not help a great deal to be in the top ten spots in the draft. You're probably not going to want to draft a guard, tight end, inside linebacker or safety in the top 10. You may still get the top guard in the draft at 15 or 20 in the first round. This is a draft where you want to draft in the top five if you need a QB. There may be three of them go there. Buffalo doesn't care about that this year. If Buffalo were in the top 10, they might think about drafting an outside linebacker or maybe a wide receiver that combines size with athleticism, but I don't think they'll cry if they don't get one. On the other hand, if Buffalo were to win out, they will be brimming with confidence and hungry to continue the trend in September 2014. I think that's more valuable to them right now than a top 10 pick in the draft.

[better days]

Nothing I would love to see more than to see the Pats* lose out & the Bills win out with the Division Championship in play on the last day of the season.

Hey I can dream.

[Thurmal]

The only reasoning I can see for thinking the season might end with six straight wins is that winning out to go 9-7, and still missing the playoffs, would be the most quintessential Bills move ever.

[CleveSteve]

Multi-Team Wild-card tiebreakers go like this:

1) Divisional tiebreaker: Only one team per division is considered... if you're in a multi-team tie for the wildcard spot and there is more than one team from a division, the teams within the same division are whittled to 1 based on 1) Head-to-head then 2) Divisional Record then 3) Record in common games
2) If you are selected as the representative wild card team from your division for this particular tie, then apply 1) head-to-head vs. tiebreaking teams, then 2) conference record, then 3) common games record.


http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

[Mr. Pink]

Strength of schedule is 5th on tiebreakers when determining wild card team.

In other words, it means nothing.

[Don't Panic]

I just went here - http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine - and picked each game based on who has been playing better football or had home field advantage. In that scenario, we would be the lone 9-7 team IF we win out. It's unfortunate that we let that KC game get away. 5-6 and I could definitely make a case. 4-7 gives us about a 2 or 3% chance. One game at a time I suppose...

[Generalissimus Gibby]

Aside from the Pats... I see the Tampa game as the toughest remaining.

Bucs fan aren't ya? Is this your take or Chickie's?

[DesertFox24]

Ok I did the playoff machine on ESPN and I cannot remember every detail but basically.

The bills get in at 9-7 even if Jets are 9-7 and Steelers 8-8. Titans, Chargers, Phins did not factor into my playoff machine based on the picks I made for each week.

Bills get in at 8-8 with jets at 8-8 and steelers at 7-9.

I had the jets beating the phins and us beating the phins.

In the 8-8 scenario I had us losing to Pats and still getting in over Jets with 8-8 as long as steelers are 7 win team.

Realistically speaking all playoff talk is way to premature, if we are 7-7 after Jacksonville then we can start to get excited as I think we have a legit shot.

I had the steelers beating the browns twice and the browns always give them a fight.

I agree with the earlier poster this falcon game and the bucs game are going to be the key to the season folks. We never play well in Toronto with the exception of one game against a crap team.

[YardRat]

I'm still gunning for Denver and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

[BillsFever21]

Neat little calculator. I would like to use one of them at the start of the season and predict all the games and see where the standings fall at the end of the season. It's too bad this is the only way we will see the Bills name in a playoff spot this season.

[tampabay25690]

Aside from the Pats... I see the Tampa game as the toughest remaining.

It's nice I get to see the Tampa and Jax game up close!!

[Don't Panic]

It's nice I get to see the Tampa and Jax game up close!!

Back to back games in Florida... in December no less. Great year to be a Bills fan living on the peninsula. I wonder if they'll stay down for the week, especially if they are winning games and still in the hunt. They could stay in Orlando and get some really good team building out of it.

[Skooby]

Back to back games in Florida... in December no less. Great year to be a Bills fan living on the peninsula. I wonder if they'll stay down for the week, especially if they are winning games and still in the hunt. They could stay in Orlando and get some really good team building out of it. Maybe hit up a Dave & Busters.

[MikeInRoch]

The only reasoning I can see for thinking the season might end with six straight wins is that winning out to go 9-7, and still missing the playoffs, would be the most quintessential Bills move ever.

It would be much more Bills-like to win 5, go into the last week with a "win and in" game, and get decimated.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

There is no way on god's green earth that the Pats rest their starters in Week 17. Not only are they very much alive for the #2 seed and a week off, but even if that gets lost to Indy or Cincy then they will be fighting to get the #3 seed and avoid hosting Denver or KC in round 1.

[Ed]

There is no way on god's green earth that the Pats rest their starters in Week 17. Not only are they very much alive for the #2 seed and a week off, but even if that gets lost to Indy or Cincy then they will be fighting to get the #3 seed and avoid hosting Denver or KC in round 1.
Well there's a chance that they could already be locked into their playoff seed after week 16. Even then though, I don't think the Pats typically rest their starters.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Well there's a chance that they could already be locked into their playoff seed after week 16. Even then though, I don't think the Pats typically rest their starters.

That happens less than you think, and the #2, #3, and #4 seeds are all tied right now at 7 wins. The odds are very good that New England will still have something to play for.

[Ed]

That happens less than you think, and the #2, #3, and #4 seeds are all tied right now at 7 wins. The odds are very good that New England will still have something to play for.
Yeah, I agree. I think they're going to lose to Denver, which ties them with Cincy, but Cincy holds the tie-breaker. So they'll have plenty to fight for down the stretch. Even if they are locked into a spot, I think Brady would still want to play and finish on a winning note at home, so I don't really see the last game being any easier for Buffalo regardless.

[Skooby]

The Bills need to beat them regardless of starters playing or not.

[BillsFever21]

Even if we were lucky enough to be 8-7 heading into the Patriots game and needed a win for the playoffs they will most likely be fighting for playoff seeding themselves. Even if they weren't they would probably still play their starters just to try and knock a divisional rival out of the playoffs.