Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

[Mahdi]

Just using current NFL elite QBs let's go through the list....

Manning -- Showed brilliance as a rookie despite his INTs

Brees -- Didnt play in rookie year -- Showed lots of good and also lots of bad in his first year as starter. Had a mixed career in SD. Last 2 years in SD he had 27 TD 7 INT and 24 TD 15 INT respectively. Basically Drew was a late bloomer but he did have good accuracy for the most part.

Eli Manning -- Started 7 games going 1-6. 48% completion percentage, 6TD, 9INT, 5.3 YPA. -- Very similar to EJ I think because both didn't play full seasons in their rookie year.

Roethlesberger -- 13-0 record as rookie -- 66% comp -- 17TD, 11INT, 8.9 YPA -- His accuracy was great and YPA is impressive. He had a very strong running game and D.

Russel Wilson -- We all know how well he did as a rookie

Kaepernick played in Year 2 and was great

Flacco -- Had a rookie year that was encouraging and showed signs of having a big accurate arm.

Luck -- Documented

Rivers Started in year 3 and was excellent

Matt Ryan showed signs from day one

Andy Dalton was good not great in rookie year -- showed signs though and was accurate overall

Romo and Rodgers started late in their careers but both were good from the beginning.

Cutler was impressive from day one

Stafford -- was pretty bad actually in his rookie year -- 13TD, 20 INT -- 53% comp. 2-8 record

Those are the players I consider elite franchise QBs. Looking at the trends, its rare to have a QB with the accuracy struggles of EJ become a franchise guy. We should not be ok with just having a serviceable QB for 10 years. We should be confident that we have one of the guys from the list above and nothing less, otherwise, you are not even thinking super bowl, you are thinking playoff appearance every now and then.

Stafford and Manning are good QBs to look at if you believe you can be real bad then become real good. Otherwise, the rest of those guys showed a lot of promise. Especially in terms of their accuracy and playmaking.

EJ shows none of those.....jury is technically still out, but doesn't look good for him.

[Pinkerton Security]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

While Im not making excuses and dont know if EJ will be our long term answer, most of the guys you mentioned above had very good teams around them, for the most part. EJ is lacking that. Our line flat out sucks, and that is not letting us run very well, which in turn puts a lot of pressure on EJ. Big Ben handed the ball off 40 times a game and only threw to keep the defense honest...he became a more polished passer over time.

We need to fill some serious holes on the OL, get run stuffing LBs to play the middle, and get EJ another passing weapon who can make plays with any consistency before he even has a chance to be good.

[jdaltroy5]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

Peyton certainly was NOT brilliant in his rookie year. He threw more INTs than TDs, had a 56% completion percentage and only won 3 games.

I'm in no way saying that EJ can be anywhere close to Peyton, just clarifying that a lot of people thought Peyton was a bust after his first season.

Also, if I remember correctly, Wilson, Kap, Flacco, Dalton, and Roethlisberger already had a pretty good team and they weren't asked to do much in their first years.

The only guys that really came in their first years and put their teams on their shoulders were Luck, RGIII, and Ryan. They were also all taken within the first three picks.

[Mahdi]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

Peyton certainly was NOT brilliant in his rookie year. He threw more INTs than TDs, had a 56% completion percentage and only won 3 games.

I'm in no way saying that EJ can be anywhere close to Peyton, just clarifying that a lot of people thought Peyton was a bust after his first season.

Also, if I remember correctly, Wilson, Kap, Flacco, Dalton, and Roethlisberger already had a pretty good team and they weren't asked to do much in their first years.

The only guys that really came in their first years and put their teams on their shoulders were Luck, RGIII, and Ryan. They were also all taken within the first three picks.

Peyton was brilliant there is no question. He had 28 TD, 22 INT and 3800 yards. He was a big time playmaker but he threw lots of picks. The signs were evident right away that he was elite.

[gebobs]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

He had 28 TD, 22 INT

26 TD/28 INT

The reason Manuel doesn't have more INTs is because he won't throw the damned ball. He's looking like a deer in headlights at this point. Too afraid to make a mistake.

[jdaltroy5]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

Peyton was brilliant there is no question. He had 28 TD, 22 INT and 3800 yards. He was a big time playmaker but he threw lots of picks. The signs were evident right away that he was elite.

No he didn't.

These were his stats:

26 TD, 28 INT, 56.7% compl, 3739 yards (233 per game), 6.5 YPA, 71 QBR. Not to mention he only won 3 games.

Those are not stellar by any means and definitely not anywhere close to elite.

[gebobs]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

26 TD, 28 INT, 56.7% compl, 3739 yards (233 per game), 6.5 YPA, 71 QBR. Not to mention he only won 3 games.

Those are not stellar by any means and definitely not anywhere close to elite.

26 TD's by a rookie is certainly elite.

And half of those 28 INT's were in the first 6 games. In the last 10 games, he had 19 TDs and 14 picks. He showed progress where Manuel has not shown it at all.

Manning's rookie year was exceptional by anyone's standards. Anyone watching knew by the end of that year that he was going to be special. Bills fans were the first to find out the following year and he beat us in the first and last games of '99.

[Pinkerton Security]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

OK - so we know EJ isnt Peyton. Who didnt know that already??

[jdaltroy5]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

26 TD's by a rookie is certainly elite.

And half of those 28 INT's were in the first 6 games. In the last 10 games, he had 19 TDs and 14 picks. He showed progress where Manuel has not shown it at all.

Manning's rookie year was exceptional by anyone's standards. Anyone watching knew by the end of that year that he was going to be special. Bills fans were the first to find out the following year and he beat us in the first and last games of '99.

Sure, 26 TDs for a rookie is elite. Unfortunately, the rest of his numbers were not.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Manuel will ever be close to what Peyton is.

But he was still a big question mark after his rookie year. He finished hot, but he still had a lot of question marks.

"Of course, Manning would turn into a legend, one of the best quarterbacks of all time, but until Week 12 of his rookie season, he wasn't much better than, say, Brandon Weeden as a rookie."

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24102987/remember-when-peyton-manning-finally-takes-off-in-tough-98-season

[YardRat]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

The vast majority of those you listed either didn't start as rookies fresh out of college, or basically 'sucked' but are excused with generalized comments like 'showed promise'. You really can't compare EJ to guys who had been in the league, practicing and learning systems, for more than 13 games, and the ones that really did start from day 1 mostly struggled with only a couple of exceptions.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

Stafford and P. Manning threw the ball many more times than most of these other QB's. They developed them through high reps, lots of mistakes, but more opportunities to correct them as well. Manning also had a top notch O-line in front of him to allow that to happen. That is not the strategy with EJ. They are taking it more slowly. Perhaps these last few games they should let him loose instead of scaling him back. Just throw the damn ball and get the reps.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

Here's the difference...

Even Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Matt Stafford...hell David Carr and Tim Couch looked like they belong on an NFL field.

EJ has more in common with Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Jim Druckenmiller, Akili Smith...none of them looked like they belonged on an NFL field.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

The vast majority of those you listed either didn't start as rookies fresh out of college, or basically 'sucked' but are excused with generalized comments like 'showed promise'. You really can't compare EJ to guys who had been in the league, practicing and learning systems, for more than 13 games, and the ones that really did start from day 1 mostly struggled with only a couple of exceptions.

This. Good posting!

[ICRockets]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

Here's the difference...

Even Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Matt Stafford...hell David Carr and Tim Couch looked like they belong on an NFL field.

EJ has more in common with Todd Marinovich, Dan McGwire, Jim Druckenmiller, Akili Smith...none of them looked like they belonged on an NFL field.

He certainly looks like he belongs to me. And Tim Couch never did, as far as I'm concerned.

Which means all you have here is a big stupid pile of worthless opinion that tells us jack about EJ's future.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Case study: Can we name QBs who sucked bad as rookies/starters then became Stars?

He certainly looks like he belongs to me. And Tim Couch never did, as far as I'm concerned.

Which means all you have here is a big stupid pile of worthless opinion that tells us jack about EJ's future.

So a guy who flat out refuses to throw the ball downfield, has no accuracy, has horrible footwork and no pocket awareness looks like he belongs now? Or is that all worthless opinion?

You know where EJ will be by the time his contract is up? The same place JP Losman is. Home. Counting his millions.