X's 2014 Fearless Off-season Plan V1.1

[X-Era]

Overall:

I feel the team isn't that far off. Injuries of course caused us major issues since our depth is sub-par but that seems to be an annual issue. The coaching was average but Pettine was very good. The offense needs offensive line help and a few key additions and subtractions. The defense does as well.

Coaching:

Marrone is safe as is Pettine of course. Hackett is very much on the hotseat. We do have the 2nd ranked rushing offense so I think he gets another year.

Fire:
Danny Crossman

Hire:
Bobby April

Free Agency:

Cap wise the link says we will go in with 28.6 in room.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24379050/agents-take-raiders-atop-list-of-10-teams-with-best-2014-salary-cap-situation
We will burn through a good chunk with Byrd and Carrington. However, some other moves will give us room to make a few signings.

Re-sign:
Jarius Byrd- He'll get 8-8.5 mill per with a cap number of say 6-7 next year
Alex Carrington- Could bring 4-5 mill per and around that in a cap number
Dan Carpenter
Jim Leonhard
Brian Moorman

Let walk:
Scott Chandler
Arthur Moats
Thomas Welch
Chris Hogan
Antoine McClain

Cut:
Erik Pears- 3.45 cap number and 550k in dead money means a savings of 2.9
Kevin Kolb- 3.6 mill cap figure with only 500k in dead money. He's on the IR and he'll be gone.

Pay cut:
Stevie Johnson- Reduce the cap number to 5.5 from 8.5. Gives us 3 mill in cap space

Trade:
Marcel Dareus- a 6.5 mill cap figure that all would be dead money means he's here unless he's traded and then we recoup all of it I believe. Branch re-signed and him being late so many times makes him being part of the Bills going forward very much in question.

Those moves take us from 38.2 to 44.97 in cap room. 10-12 is eaten up by Byrd and Carrington. Probably have 30 or so left.

Sign:
RT- Zach Strief- Could bring 4-6 per in cap number
OG- Jerry Asamoah- 3-4.5 per in cap hit
CB- DRC- 3.5-4.5 per in cap hit
OLB- Jason Worilds- close to vet min

Thats a max spend of 15 mill in new cap hit from FA. Leaves us 15 mill which is plenty for the draft and fill in's

Draft:

1) Move down to mid to late 1st and grab a 2nd. Draft Eric Ebron, TE, UNC
2a) Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU
2b) David Yankey, G, Stanford
3) Donte Moncrief, WR, Ole Miss
4a) Daniel McCullers, DT, Tenn
4b) (Supp) Max Bullough, ILB, Mich St
5) Taj Boyd, QB, Clem
6a) Ryan Groy, G, Wis
6b) (Supp) De'Anthony Thomas, RB, Ore
7) Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley

Depth:

QB- Manuel, Lewis, Boyd
RB- Spiller, Jackson, Thomas
WR- Woods, Moncrief, Stevie, Goodwin, Easley, Janis
TE- Ebron, Smith, Moeaki
LT- Glenn, Hairston
LG- Yankey, Legursky
C- Wood
RG- Asamoah, Asper, Groy
RT- Streif, Hairston
DE- Williams, Hughes
DT- K Williams, McCullers
DT- Dareus, Branch
DE- Carrington, Bryant
OLB- Van Noy, Bradham
ILB- Alonso, Bullough
OLB- Lawson, Worilds
CB- Gilmore, Robey, Brooks
FS- A Williams, D Williams
SS- Byrd, Leonhard, Searcy
CB- McKelvin, DRC, Brooks
K- Carpenter
P- Moorman
LS- Sanborn

Don't make the team:
Meeks
Graham
Powell
Charles
Welch
Roberson
Unga
Gragg
Tuel
Rodriguez
Elliot
Hopkins

---------------

Updated 12/30- Keep Urbik, cut Kolb, trade Dareus

[The Jokeman]

To me we can improve our offense more with veteran skill players than O-lineman, Also not sure how you'd think we'd get Jason Worilds at the vet minimum as the guy's increased his sack total each season he's played over the last 4 years and got 8.0 in 2013. Also while I'd like to bring in some help at CB not sure I'd use the space on a guy like DRC. A guy like Kelvin Hayden might fill be better suited here.

[justasportsfan]

Caussin and Batten have been cut a long time ago. Where have you been?

[X-Era]

To me we can improve our offense more with veteran skill players than O-lineman, Also not sure how you'd think we'd get Jason Worilds at the vet minimum as the guy's increased his sack total each season he's played over the last 4 years and got 8.0 in 2013. Also while I'd like to bring in some help at CB not sure I'd use the space on a guy like DRC. A guy like Kelvin Hayden might fill be better suited here.Worilds has a cap hit this year of about a mill. I'm only saying he won't command huge money. Could be a mill or two in cap hit. He's been inconsistent until this year. If he commands a lot more than forget it.

On DRC I just want a vet to push McKelvin or to at least be a solid #3 CB. Robey should never have been up against Vincent Jackson for example. And I like Robey. We need veteran depth at several spots. CB is one.

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Caussin and Batten have been cut a long time ago. Where have you been?
Oops, lost I guess. Lol.

This can be fixed.

[elltrain22]

I like it. Very well done. I especially like the new offensive line. I also like it b/c it is very realistic, and also like the fact that you had resigning Byrd priority number 1.

[BillsFever21]

Urbik isn't the greatest but if we only saved 870k by releasing him then what good does that do? At the worse he would be a reliable backup for us. You won't find anybody else for the 870k in cap savings from cutting him.

Our starting guard position is already bad enough with a glaring hole at LG. The depth is even worse. No sense in cutting a veteran player just for the sake of it when you will only save 870k. Not only do we need a reliable starter(s) at them positions but we also need depth. No sense in creating anymore holes over 870k. It will cost a draft pick to replace him or any scrub free agent brought in would cost at least that much. We could always see what Colin Brown is doing nowadays.

[X-Era]

Urbik isn't the greatest but if we only saved 870k by releasing him then what good does that do? At the worse he would be a reliable backup for us. You won't find anybody else for the 870k in cap savings from cutting him.

Our starting guard position is already bad enough with a glaring hole at LG. The depth is even worse. No sense in cutting a veteran player just for the sake of it when you will only save 870k. Not only do we need a reliable starter(s) at them positions but we also need depth. No sense in creating anymore holes over 870k. It will cost a draft pick to replace him or any scrub free agent brought in would cost at least that much. We could always see what Colin Brown is doing nowadays.
I won't disagree. I'm a fan of vet depth.

[tampabay25690]

Caussin and Batten have been cut a long time ago. Where have you been?

Caucasian is still on the team

[tampabay25690]

X nicely done...
I don't think k we bring back Moorman or Leonard...
Urbik I think stays.....

What about Mario restructuring his contract?

[clumping platelets]

X nicely done...
I don't think k we bring back Moorman or Leonard...
Urbik I think stays.....

What about Mario restructuring his contract?


He has a $10.8 million roster bonus that could be converting into a signing bonus for proration. Save $7.1 million there alone. Almost enough to get Byrd re-signed

[tampabay25690]

He has a $10.8 million roster bonus that could be converting into a signing bonus for proration. Save $7.1 million there alone. Almost enough to get Byrd re-signed

Thanx for that info

[Jan Reimers]

Good job, X.

But I think we will continue to plod along in quiet mediocrity, which is what we do so well. We will let Byrd go, and spend the draft and free agency filling the holes created by losing Levitre, Byrd and others (e.g. David Nelson - did anyone else see him killing Miami yesterday?), and trying - while staying well below the cap - to catch up with a league that is quite a bit ahead of us.

The related combination of letting quality players walk and keeping our cap money under Ralph's mattress has created an unprecedented 14 years of s**t.

[YardRat]

DT and MLB need to be a much higher priority. As much as I like K.Williams and Kiko, it's time KW moved aside into situational duties and a real space-eater was brought in to man the middle. Kiko is too light in the ass to play MLB against the run. Screw Byrd, plug in Duke Williams to be the safety valve and spend the money where it will help the most, on the o-line and defensive front seven.

[DraftBoy]

Overall good stuff X. I don't agree with keeping Leonhard or Moorman at this point but it is what it is. Also I think all the assistants are retained unfortunately.

On the FA's I like Streif, and Asamoah. You know I like DRC and Worlids is ok too.

Im hesitant to agree that Van Noy lasts to Round 2 but if he does he's a steal. Same with Moncrief in Round 3. Not really interested in Tajh Boyd but we could do a lot worse. I think you need to add some OT depth instead of the OG in Round 6. You only have three on the roster you posted. I'm not huge fan of Ebron because he's a bigger slower WR who can't play inline. Nice hands and a big time mismatch issue but I want a TE who can add something to the running game as well.

Also I think Stefan Charles beats out Corbin Bryant for a spot based on potential alone.

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DT and MLB need to be a much higher priority. As much as I like K.Williams and Kiko, it's time KW moved aside into situational duties and a real space-eater was brought in to man the middle. Kiko is too light in the ass to play MLB against the run. Screw Byrd, plug in Duke Williams to be the safety valve and spend the money where it will help the most, on the o-line and defensive front seven.

To be fair McCullers is a space eater, he's 6'6 340 on a light day.

[Thurmal]

If we tell Steve Johnson to take a $3 million/year paycut, he'll say "no," so does he get cut then? And you're not resigning Chandler, so know your two most productive receivers are gone.

I'm also not sure why Alex Carrington, who has four sacks in his entire career, would garner a $5 million/year salary.

[DraftBoy]

If we tell Steve Johnson to take a $3 million/year paycut, he'll say "no," so does he get cut then? And you're not resigning Chandler, so know your two most productive receivers are gone.

I'm also not sure why Alex Carrington, who has four sacks in his entire career, would garner a $5 million/year salary.

Fit for the D, his job isn't to get to the QB. Plus he's a tremendous run stuffer.

[Uncle Jesse]

The only things I don't like are cutting Urbik and keeping Moorman. I think we need to do the opposite. They just resigned Urbik last year, I doubt he's going anywhere. Moorman is horrendous and hopefully we never see him again in a Bills uniform.

[bdutton]

If we tell Steve Johnson to take a $3 million/year paycut, he'll say "no," so does he get cut then? And you're not resigning Chandler, so know your two most productive receivers are gone.

I'm also not sure why Alex Carrington, who has four sacks in his entire career, would garner a $5 million/year salary.

I'm not a fan of Stevie Johnson. He's been unremarkable this year and I would trade him if we can find a suitor. Pick up one of the top free agent WR's.

I like Chandler. He's better than more than 1/2 of all of the other starting TE's. You can't put a franchise tag on him because he doesn't deserve that kind of money. If we can sign him to a contract commensurate to his productivity I would do it. If not, pick up one of the other top FA TE's to replace him. Grab the best TE in the draft and with 2 TE sets it would give defenses fits trying to cover the play action or stop the run.

[X-Era]

If we tell Steve Johnson to take a $3 million/year paycut, he'll say "no," so does he get cut then? And you're not resigning Chandler, so know your two most productive receivers are gone.

I'm also not sure why Alex Carrington, who has four sacks in his entire career, would garner a $5 million/year salary.I think Stevie gets a restructure with a pay cut. The 3 mill can be partly from a pay cut and partly by converting some money into signing bonus money.

[X-Era]

Agree with all of you on Urbik now that I look at it more. Rhinehart is also a free agent I believe. These are the kind of guys that we should have as depth.

[X-Era]

Overall good stuff X. I don't agree with keeping Leonhard or Moorman at this point but it is what it is. Also I think all the assistants are retained unfortunately.

On the FA's I like Streif, and Asamoah. You know I like DRC and Worlids is ok too.

Im hesitant to agree that Van Noy lasts to Round 2 but if he does he's a steal. Same with Moncrief in Round 3. Not really interested in Tajh Boyd but we could do a lot worse. I think you need to add some OT depth instead of the OG in Round 6. You only have three on the roster you posted. I'm not huge fan of Ebron because he's a bigger slower WR who can't play inline. Nice hands and a big time mismatch issue but I want a TE who can add something to the running game as well.

Also I think Stefan Charles beats out Corbin Bryant for a spot based on potential alone.

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To be fair McCullers is a space eater, he's 6'6 340 on a light day.Yeah. I'm not totally set on that draft either. Maybe the move down could be for Van Noy with Moncrief and Seferian-Jenkins in the 2nd round. Then hope Yankey drops to the 3rd or possibly Zack Martin there. I'd really like to grab Carlos Hyde but it may take a 3rd rounder or higher. A big bruising back would be nice.

It's a first take and between what we do in free agency and how the draft shapes up it will change.

[Novacane]

I think Stevie gets a restructure with a pay cut. The 3 mill can be partly from a pay cut and partly by converting some money into signing bonus money.


The question was what if Stevie doesn't agree to that. Why would he say yes to a pay cut?

[X-Era]

The question was what if Stevie doesn't agree to that. Why would he say yes to a pay cut?
He may not and then we have to decide what we want to do.

I'm alright with a straight restructure as long as cutting him a year or two from now doesn't give us huge dead money.

[alohabillsfan]

I would use rd two to grab a quality QB!

[X-Era]

I would use rd two to grab a quality QB!
If we can get a guy who looks to be able to compete for the starting job and has enough potential, I'm fine with it.

The problem is I can't see the Bills doing it. They have a solid backup in Lewis and there is no way they say they were wrong with Manuel by drafting a QB high again.

I just can't see the Bills going hard after another QB prospect this year.

[better days]

He may not and then we have to decide what we want to do.

I'm alright with a straight restructure as long as cutting him a year or two from now doesn't give us huge dead money.

Since the Bills are already $28.6 Mill under the cap, I see no need to create more room aside from getting rid of some players that we don't want/need going forward.

I think there will be some big changes this coming year. I just hope a new Special teams coach is one of them.

[X-Era]

Don't forget Kolb is on the IR with a 3.6 mill cap figure next year. He'd only have 500k in dead money so it's another 3.1 mill in savings and he is likley to be gone. Just looking at the cap figures next year, Kolb and Pears really stand out as guys who could easily be gone... 6 mill back in cap space from those two.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/2014/

Dareus has a 6.49 cap hit but all of it would be dead money if cut. However, trading him would make a lot of sense where we get it all back.

Time for an update to my original.

[X-Era]

CB talks about Leonhard as a possible re-sign:

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2013/12/30/leonhard-only-looking-to-play-1-more-year/

I'm fine with it. He made a few plays and brings veteran leadership as a backup. He's the sort of backup we should have more of. Even if he had a bad game yesterday.

[DraftBoy]

Resigning Leonhard imo is a waste of a roster spot. He's a glorified fair catch punt returner who takes horrific angles.

[coastal]

2a, 2b and 3 ain't ever going to happen.

We'd be lucky to get one of the players at the spots you have them penciled in at... especially Yankey.

[Mouldsie]

Stevie is like the 22nd highest paid WR in the NFL and will go further down that list after this season and next as a few other guys start to get paid (oh and the cap goes up!), I don't understand with this obsession over his money when we have tons of space, he took less money to stay here, and out produces most players in the league at his position. **** Bills fans. Seriously.

What you do is focus on getting more talented players around your already talented players, this tends to result in better outcomes than to try and replace your best players with other young players that may or may not reach the level of their predecessor.

It's adding Wes Welker to an offense that already has Thomas and Decker. I doubt Broncos fans were crying about all that money tied up at WR!

[YardRat]

Just sit tight with Stevie...the only adjustment that needs to be made for him is for the QB to quit throwing him the ball in clutch situations. I'm still waiting for him to have a TO moment.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Trade Dareus?? YUCK!! HOOOOORRIBLE idea in my opinion.

Finally playing at elite level. What would we get for him? Nothing near what he is worth.

Late to meetings? Who gives a ****. He was punished sufficiently. I could care less about it anymore.

I like everything else you said though :hi5:

[BillsFever21]

Since the Bills are already $28.6 Mill under the cap, I see no need to create more room aside from getting rid of some players that we don't want/need going forward.

I think there will be some big changes this coming year. I just hope a new Special teams coach is one of them.

Exactly. What is the need to restructure contracts when we have almost 30 million in cap space. God knows we will end up with around half of it left when it's all said and done. There isn't any need to restructure contracts just for the sake of it.

[alohabillsfan]

If we can get a guy who looks to be able to compete for the starting job and has enough potential, I'm fine with it.

The problem is I can't see the Bills doing it. They have a solid backup in Lewis and there is no way they say they were wrong with Manuel by drafting a QB high again.

I just can't see the Bills going hard after another QB prospect this year.

Solid back up that sees the field to much! EJ is fragile and inaccurate. He has played QB in a pro style offense for 4 years! The guy hS no ceiling and is not gonna reach elite level, never!! The fact that Marrone has named him starter cements his belief that EJ is what he is not! So two more years of EJ and Marrone! Maybe 2016!!

[NOT THE DUDE...]

probably not gona trade dareus, but decent plan

[YardRat]

I'll put my first attempt at a mock draft in here...

1-Cameron Irving, OT, Florida State
2-Shayne Skov, LB, Stanford
3-Dion Bailey, FS, USC
4a-Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers
4b-Arthur Lynch, TE, Georgia
5-Marion Grice, RB, Arizona State
6a-Bruce Gaston, DT, Purdue
6b-Boseko Lokombo, LB, Oregon
7-Spencer Long, OG, Nebraska

[The Jokeman]

Agree with all of you on Urbik now that I look at it more. Rhinehart is also a free agent I believe. These are the kind of guys that we should have as depth.

Rinehart started 10 of 11 games he played this season and gave up 1 sack and called on 2 penalties. I doubt he'll be looking for depth money this offseason. If you want a depth O-lineman in free agency a guy like Mike Pollak might be worth looking into as can play OG and C.

[TedMock]

Rinehart started 10 of 11 games he played this season and gave up 1 sack and called on 2 penalties. I doubt he'll be looking for depth money this offseason. If you want a depth O-lineman in free agency a guy like Mike Pollak might be worth looking into as can play OG and C.


Rinehart also gave up 5 QB hits, 11 hurries and absolutely sucked at run blocking. I don't want him back. I want two guards and a RT in FA for sure though. I would gladly take both Asamoah and Schwartz off KC's hands if possible. I would also love Brandon Spikes filling holes in the running game, but I can't see NE not working a deal out for him.

There are a couple of WR's I would consider in FA as well. Maybe guys like Eric Decker or Riley Cooper for some added size.

Not a fan of Jim Leonhard. He had a few nice plays in coverage this year, but he also cost us a few huge runs with his inability to tackle and his propensity for taking horrible angles.

[YardRat]

Considering Irving isn't leaving Fla St., I'll adjust the first round...

1-Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
2-Shayne Skov, LB, Stanford
3-Dion Bailey, FS, USC
4a-Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers
4b-Arthur Lynch, TE, Georgia
5-Marion Grice, RB, Arizona State
6a-Bruce Gaston, DT, Purdue
6b-Boseko Lokombo, LB, Oregon
7-Spencer Long, OG, Nebraska